<p>大多数股票买家已经知道 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.04%）是现代时代最有回报的投资之一。自 1997 年公司上市以来，股价上涨了市场领先的 275,000%，反映了其在电子商务市场中的主导地位，而该市场在此期间迅速增长。</p>
<p>正如谚语所说，过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。在线购物业务无法再次出现。因此，亚马逊的股票在未来 27 年内不太可能重现这样的成就。</p>
<p>尽管如此，这家巨头公司在可预见的未来仍可能是一个有回报的股票，为新手们铺就一条致富之路。只是它的成功原因可能与过去不同。</p>
<h2>亚马逊尝试的并非所有事情都成功，但足够多的事情成功了</h2>
<p>人们常说时机就是一切。亚马逊证明了这一说法可能是正确的。</p>
<p>亚马逊于 1995 年作为一家在线书店推出，当时互联网几乎是全新的。接下来的事情，正如人们所说，都是历史。公司很快扩展了其产品，现年收入达到 6200 亿美元。</p>
<p>显然，它仍然在电子商务领域。事实上，市场研究机构 eMarketer 报告称，亚马逊独自占据了美国在线消费的约 40%。尽管外国竞争对手在本土市场上具有优势，但它在海外的表现也相当不错。同时，它还推出了云计算业务，利用其知名品牌。亚马逊网络服务（Amazon Web Services）产生了约 60% 的运营收入，尽管它仅占亚马逊收入的不到 30%。</p>
<p>然后是亚马逊 Prime，向订阅者提供访问庞大的流媒体视频库和数百万在线订购商品的免费次日送达服务。现在，公司甚至深入数字广告业务，利用亚马逊网站的所有网络流量进行变现。在过去四个季度中，公司收集了超过 530 亿美元的广告收入……这个数字仍在增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkyNDEvMTEyNjI0LWFtYXpvbi1hZHZlcnRpc2luZy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkyNDEvMTEyNjI0LWFtYXpvbi1hZHZlcnRpc2luZy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：亚马逊公司。图表由作者提供。数字以十亿美元计。</p>
<p>这并不是说亚马逊进入的每一个项目都取得了成功。在经历了多年的平淡业绩后，它在 2022 年初关闭了所有书店（这些书店也销售其他商品）。尽管现在有 52 个地点在运营，但它在自己的杂货和杂货配送业务上的尝试也没有成为主要的利润中心。回顾 2017 年收购 Whole Foods Market，可能在这个领域是一个更有意义的——尽管更昂贵的——举动。就在上个月，公司关闭了一项名为 Amazon Today 的同日送货服务，该服务将商品从实体店运送到附近的客户。</p>
<p>尽管如此，亚马逊尝试的足够多的事情似乎都在奏效。</p>
<h2>亚马逊是一种心态的投资</h2>
<p>但这些事情中有什么使亚马逊成为能够让你终身受益的股票呢？单独来看并没有。但有两个关键的收获，根植于上述所有内容。</p>
<p>首先，亚马逊管理着一个庞大的常规客户数字生态系统。</p>
<p>虽然公司本身并不经常透露太多细节，但消费者情报研究公司最近的报告显示，全球有超过 2 亿名付费的 Prime 会员。大多数会员居住在美国，尽管公司在海外推出该服务时也取得了一定的进展。</p>
<p>这并不是一个微不足道的细节。电视收视率机构 <strong>尼尔森</strong> 表示，Prime 的内容在美国的观看量超过了 <strong>迪士尼</strong> 和 <strong>华纳兄弟探索</strong> 的 Max（仅举几例），消费者情报研究公司的数据表明，Prime 会员在亚马逊网站上的消费几乎是非 Prime 会员的两倍。他们的消费也更加稳定。</p>
<p>鉴于许多 Prime 客户由于便利性而习惯于在亚马逊购物，这部分收入可能会持续下去。随着公司扩大国际市场，会员驱动的收入可能会增长，进一步增强成为会员的好处。超过 90% 的订阅者在坚持至少一年后会再续订一年服务。在第二年后，留存率甚至会进一步提高。</p>
<p>另一个可能帮助亚马逊股票让你终身受益的收获是什么？显然，它愿意尝试新事物，但同样愿意在实验性业务显然无法成功时果断停止。</p>
<p>创始人杰夫·贝索斯为这种企业文化贡献了很大一部分功劳。现任和前任亚马逊员工表示，这位强势的前首席执行官培养了一种 “快速失败，频繁失败” 的文化。尽管公司放弃的项目比维持的项目多，但愿意象征性地割舍无用的项目为推出可能成功的业务提供了自由。例如，如果亚马逊害怕在这方面失败，它可能永远不会进入 Synergy Research Group 所称的云计算竞争。</p>
<p>现任首席执行官安迪·贾西自 2021 年接任以来，在这种思维方式上留下了自己的印记，果断停止了曾经充满希望的项目，如 Amazon Today 和公司在其亚马逊生鲜店的无现金结账技术（尽管它旨在将这项技术出售给其他零售商）。他仍然是愿意在寻找成功的过程中承担失败的净收益的支持者。未来将会有更多成功、以增长为导向的实验。</p>
<p>关键是：尽管自 1990 年代以来电子商务行业增长迅速，但美国人口普查局表示，目前只有约 16% 的零售支出是在网上进行的。其余 84% 中相当大的一部分仍然有机会被任何处于良好位置的公司争取到。这显然是亚马逊。</p>
<h2>即使是一个较慢的亚马逊仍然优于大多数其他前景</h2>
<p>再说一次，亚马逊的股票不太可能再像它从新兴企业到全面强者之间的那段时间那样带来巨额收益。保持你的期望在合理范围内。</p>
<p>然而，即使在 1997 年至 2024 年之间实现其表现的一小部分，仍然会是一次令人难以置信的增长，令新投资者非常富有。显然，仍然有很多机会可以实现这样的增长。</p>
<p>顺便说一下，长期投资者也不必过于畏惧今年的极端乐观情绪。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊（AMZN）自 1997 年首次公开募股以来，股价增长了惊人的 275,000%，使其成为顶级投资选择。虽然过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，但亚马逊多样化的收入来源，包括电子商务、云计算和数字广告，表明它将继续表现强劲。拥有超过 2 亿的 Prime 会员，该公司受益于高客户忠诚度和消费水平。亚马逊愿意创新并终止不成功的业务，进一步使其成为新投资者潜在的改变生活的投资</p>

<p>Most stock buyers already know <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.04%) has been one of the most rewarding investments of the modern era. Shares are up a market-leading 275,000% since the company's 1997 public offering, reflecting its hold on an e-commerce market that's exploded in the meantime.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数股票买家已经知道 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.04%）是现代时代最有回报的投资之一。自 1997 年公司上市以来，股价上涨了市场领先的 275,000%，反映了其在电子商务市场中的主导地位，而该市场在此期间迅速增长。</p>
</div><p>As the adage goes, past performance is no guarantee of future results. The online shopping business can't come into existence again. As such, Amazon stock isn't likely to repeat the feat over the coming 27 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如谚语所说，过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。在线购物业务无法再次出现。因此，亚马逊的股票在未来 27 年内不太可能重现这样的成就。</p>
</div><p>Still, this mega-company is likely to remain a rewarding ticker for the foreseeable future, setting newcomers up for life. It's just apt to do so for a different reason than it did in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这家巨头公司在可预见的未来仍可能是一个有回报的股票，为新手们铺就一条致富之路。只是它的成功原因可能与过去不同。</p>
</div><h2>Not everything Amazon tries works, but enough of it does</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊尝试的并非所有事情都成功，但足够多的事情成功了</h2>
</div><p>They say timing is everything. Amazon proved that this claim may well be true.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们常说时机就是一切。亚马逊证明了这一说法可能是正确的。</p>
</div><p>Amazon launched as an online bookstore in 1995 when the internet was practically brand new. The rest, as they say, is history. The company soon expanded its offerings, en route to its current yearly revenue of $620 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊于 1995 年作为一家在线书店推出，当时互联网几乎是全新的。接下来的事情，正如人们所说，都是历史。公司很快扩展了其产品，现年收入达到 6200 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>It's obviously still in the e-commerce business. Indeed, market research outfit eMarketer reports that Amazon alone accounts for about 40% of U.S. online spending. It's doing pretty well overseas too, even though foreign competitors have a home-field advantage over the U.S.-based company. It also launched a cloud computing venture in the meantime, leveraging its well-established name. Amazon Web Services generates about 60% of the outfit's operating income, even though it only accounts for less than 30% of Amazon's revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，它仍然在电子商务领域。事实上，市场研究机构 eMarketer 报告称，亚马逊独自占据了美国在线消费的约 40%。尽管外国竞争对手在本土市场上具有优势，但它在海外的表现也相当不错。同时，它还推出了云计算业务，利用其知名品牌。亚马逊网络服务（Amazon Web Services）产生了约 60% 的运营收入，尽管它仅占亚马逊收入的不到 30%。</p>
</div><p>Then there's Amazon Prime, offering subscribers access to a huge library of streaming video and free next-day shipping on millions of items ordered online. Now the company's even waist-deep into the digital advertising business, monetizing all the web traffic at Amazon.com. Over the past four quarters, the company's collected more than $53 billion in ad revenue ... a number that's still growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后是亚马逊 Prime，向订阅者提供访问庞大的流媒体视频库和数百万在线订购商品的免费次日送达服务。现在，公司甚至深入数字广告业务，利用亚马逊网站的所有网络流量进行变现。在过去四个季度中，公司收集了超过 530 亿美元的广告收入……这个数字仍在增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTkyNDEvMTEyNjI0LWFtYXpvbi1hZHZlcnRpc2luZy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799241%2F112624-amazon-advertising.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Amazon Inc. Chart by author. Figures are in billions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：亚马逊公司。图表由作者提供。数字以十亿美元计。</p>
</div><p>That's not to suggest that <em>every</em> venture Amazon has entered into has turned out a winner. After years of lackluster results, it shuttered all its bookstores (which also carried plenty of other merchandise) in early 2022. Its foray into its own grocery and grocery-delivery business also hasn't become a major profit center, despite 52 locales now up and running. In retrospect, its 2017 acquisition of Whole Foods Market has arguably been a more meaningful -- albeit more expensive -- move in this space. And just last month, the company shut down a same-day delivery service called Amazon Today that ferried goods from brick-and-mortar stores to nearby customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是说亚马逊进入的每一个项目都取得了成功。在经历了多年的平淡业绩后，它在 2022 年初关闭了所有书店（这些书店也销售其他商品）。尽管现在有 52 个地点在运营，但它在自己的杂货和杂货配送业务上的尝试也没有成为主要的利润中心。回顾 2017 年收购 Whole Foods Market，可能在这个领域是一个更有意义的——尽管更昂贵的——举动。就在上个月，公司关闭了一项名为 Amazon Today 的同日送货服务，该服务将商品从实体店运送到附近的客户。</p>
</div><p>Still, more than enough of what Amazon has tried seems to be working.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，亚马逊尝试的足够多的事情似乎都在奏效。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon is an investment in a mindset</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊是一种心态的投资</h2>
</div><p>But what about any of this makes Amazon the sort of stock that can set you up for life? None of it in and of itself. There are two key takeaways, however, rooted in <em>all</em> of the above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这些事情中有什么使亚马逊成为能够让你终身受益的股票呢？单独来看并没有。但有两个关键的收获，根植于上述所有内容。</p>
</div><p>First, Amazon manages a massive digital ecosystem of regular customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，亚马逊管理着一个庞大的常规客户数字生态系统。</p>
</div><p>While the company itself doesn't divulge too many details very often, Consumer Intelligence Research Partners' most recent report on the matter suggests there are over 200 million paying Prime members worldwide. Most of them reside within the U.S., although the company's finding traction with the service as it unveils it overseas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然公司本身并不经常透露太多细节，但消费者情报研究公司最近的报告显示，全球有超过 2 亿名付费的 Prime 会员。大多数会员居住在美国，尽管公司在海外推出该服务时也取得了一定的进展。</p>
</div><p>This is no trivial detail. Not only does TV-ratings agency <strong>Nielsen</strong> indicate Prime's content is more watched than <strong>Disney</strong>'s and <strong>Warner Bros. Discovery</strong>'s Max (just to name a few) within the United States, Consumer Intelligence Research Partners' data suggests Prime members spend almost twice as much at Amazon.com as non-Prime members do. They also do so more consistently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是一个微不足道的细节。电视收视率机构 <strong>尼尔森</strong> 表示，Prime 的内容在美国的观看量超过了 <strong>迪士尼</strong> 和 <strong>华纳兄弟探索</strong> 的 Max（仅举几例），消费者情报研究公司的数据表明，Prime 会员在亚马逊网站上的消费几乎是非 Prime 会员的两倍。他们的消费也更加稳定。</p>
</div><p>Given that many Prime customers are now in the habit of purchasing from Amazon due to its convenience, this revenue is likely here to stay. The member-driven revenue is likely to grow as the company expands its international footprint, in fact, bolstering the benefit of being a member. Well over 90% of subscribers who stick with it for at least one year sign up for another year of service. After the second year, retention improve even more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于许多 Prime 客户由于便利性而习惯于在亚马逊购物，这部分收入可能会持续下去。随着公司扩大国际市场，会员驱动的收入可能会增长，进一步增强成为会员的好处。超过 90% 的订阅者在坚持至少一年后会再续订一年服务。在第二年后，留存率甚至会进一步提高。</p>
</div><p>The other takeaway that could help Amazon stock set you up for life if you don't own it yet? It's clearly willing to try new things, yet is just as willing to pull the plug on experimental businesses when it becomes clear they're not going to work out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能帮助亚马逊股票让你终身受益的收获是什么？显然，它愿意尝试新事物，但同样愿意在实验性业务显然无法成功时果断停止。</p>
</div><p>Founder Jeff Bezos gets much of the credit for this corporate ethos. Current and former Amazon employees say the hard-driving former CEO fostered a &#34;fail fast, fail often&#34; culture. Although the company's abandoned more projects than it's maintained, a willingness to proverbially cut bait offers the freedom to launch ventures that just might work. For instance, if Amazon was afraid to fail on this front, it might have never gotten into the cloud computing race that Synergy Research Group says it now leads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>创始人杰夫·贝索斯为这种企业文化贡献了很大一部分功劳。现任和前任亚马逊员工表示，这位强势的前首席执行官培养了一种 “快速失败，频繁失败” 的文化。尽管公司放弃的项目比维持的项目多，但愿意象征性地割舍无用的项目为推出可能成功的业务提供了自由。例如，如果亚马逊害怕在这方面失败，它可能永远不会进入 Synergy Research Group 所称的云计算竞争。</p>
</div><p>Current CEO Andy Jassy has put his own fingerprints on this way of thinking since taking the helm in 2021, pulling the plug on once-hopeful efforts like Amazon Today and the company's Just Walk Out cashierless-store technology from its own Amazon Fresh stores (even as it aims to sell this tech to other retailers). He's still a fan of the net benefits of being willing to fail in the name of finding success. Look for more successful, growth-minded experimenting for the indefinite future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现任首席执行官安迪·贾西自 2021 年接任以来，在这种思维方式上留下了自己的印记，果断停止了曾经充满希望的项目，如 Amazon Today 和公司在其亚马逊生鲜店的无现金结账技术（尽管它旨在将这项技术出售给其他零售商）。他仍然是愿意在寻找成功的过程中承担失败的净收益的支持者。未来将会有更多成功、以增长为导向的实验。</p>
</div><p>The kicker: As much as the e-commerce industry has grown since the 1990s, the U.S. Census Bureau says only about 16% of the country's retail spending is currently done online. A sizable chunk of the other 84% remains up for grabs by any company that's in a good position to win it. That's clearly Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键是：尽管自 1990 年代以来电子商务行业增长迅速，但美国人口普查局表示，目前只有约 16% 的零售支出是在网上进行的。其余 84% 中相当大的一部分仍然有机会被任何处于良好位置的公司争取到。这显然是亚马逊。</p>
</div><h2>Even a slower Amazon is still better than most other prospects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>即使是一个较慢的亚马逊仍然优于大多数其他前景</h2>
</div><p>Again, it's unlikely Amazon stock will ever again dish out the kinds of gains it did between the points in time when it was an up-and-comer and a full-blown powerhouse. Keep your expectations in check.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再说一次，亚马逊的股票不太可能再像它从新兴企业到全面强者之间的那段时间那样带来巨额收益。保持你的期望在合理范围内。</p>
</div><p>Even achieving a fraction of its performance between 1997 and 2024, however, would still be an incredible run, making newcomers very rich as a result. There's certainly still plenty of opportunity to produce that growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，即使在 1997 年至 2024 年之间实现其表现的一小部分，仍然会是一次令人难以置信的增长，令新投资者非常富有。显然，仍然有很多机会可以实现这样的增长。</p>
</div><p>Long-term investors need not be too intimidated by this year's extreme bullishness too much either, by the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顺便说一下，长期投资者也不必过于畏惧今年的极端乐观情绪。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Amazon Today Set You Up for Life?

- 亚马逊自 1997 年上市以来股价上涨了 275,000%。  
- 该公司在美国在线消费中占据约 40% 的市场份额。  
- 亚马逊的云计算和广告业务也在持续增长，未来仍有发展潜力。  

今天购买亚马逊股票能让你一生无忧吗？