<p>截至 2024 年，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了令人印象深刻的 26%，而以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 则飙升了约 28%。毫无疑问，推动这些市场回报的最大助力之一是人工智能（AI）。</p>
<p>在 2024 年，AI 领域最热门的股票之一是数据分析公司 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.03%）和半导体领军企业 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.28%）。这两家公司在今年的市场表现都非常出色——Palantir 的股价飙升了 291%，而 Nvidia 的股价上涨了约 179%（截至 11 月 29 日市场收盘）。</p>
<p>考虑到 Palantir 和 Nvidia 看起来是 AI 领域最具主导地位的两家公司，你会惊讶于华尔街一些聪明的投资者目前只在购买其中一只股票吗？</p>
<p>下面，我将概述一些最知名对冲基金的操作，并详细说明我认为这些决定可能非常合理的原因。</p>
<h2>华尔街如何投资 Palantir 和 Nvidia？</h2>
<p>得益于一个非常有用的工具——13F 表格，普通投资者可以窥见大型机构投资者正在买入和卖出的股票。下面，我量化了在第三季度两位知名对冲基金经理之间 Palantir 和 Nvidia 股票的买入和卖出情况：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Ken Griffin（Citadel Advisors）</strong>：在截至 9 月的季度中，Ken Griffin 的 Citadel Advisors 出售了 5,172,681 股 Palantir，减少了该基金 91% 的持仓。同时，Griffin 及其团队将 Citadel 在 Nvidia 的持股增加了 194%——增加了超过 470 万股。</li>
<li><strong>David Shaw（D.E. Shaw）</strong>：在第三季度中，另一家削减 Palantir 持仓的对冲基金是 D.E. Shaw，该基金出售了 870 万股这家软件巨头的股票，减少了 45% 的持仓。与 Citadel 类似，D.E. Shaw 在 Nvidia 的持仓增加了超过 50%，在该季度购买了近 600 万股。</li>
</ul>
<p>让我们深入探讨一下，是什么因素影响了在过去几个月削减 Palantir 持仓而增加 Nvidia 持仓的决定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTk0NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1ODA0OTc3Ny01LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTk0NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1ODA0OTc3Ny01LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么现在卖出 Palantir？</h2>
<p>在 2023 年 4 月，Palantir 推出了其第四个主要软件套件——Palantir 人工智能平台（AIP）。AIP 的出现使 Palantir 在 AI 叙事中处于前沿，帮助公司在商业和公共部门加速收入增长，同时实现显著的利润率扩张和持续盈利。尽管 Palantir 当前的增长率和未来前景令人印象深刻，但现在卖出该股票有一个明显的原因：估值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2530e1d309d29abbfa38e821802b4cc6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2530e1d309d29abbfa38e821802b4cc6.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>截至本文撰写时，Palantir 的市销率（P/S）为 61。如上图所示，该公司在 2024 年经历了显著的估值扩张，并成为同行中最昂贵的软件即服务（SaaS）股票之一。</p>
<p>简单来说，有一个非常好的理由可以认为 Palantir 的股票被高估。考虑到股价在如此短的时间内经历了如此大的动能，我不能责怪 Citadel 和 D.E. Shaw 的团队减少他们的持仓。</p>
<p>该股票经历了历史性的上涨，现在似乎是锁定一些利润的合理机会。</p>
<h2>为什么现在买入 Nvidia？</h2>
<p>Nvidia 是目前支撑整个 AI 生态系统的最重要支柱之一。该公司的芯片组，称为图形处理单元（GPU），可能是生成性 AI 开发中最受追捧的基础设施。</p>
<p>在我看来，推动 Nvidia 牛市论点的两个最明显的催化剂是对 AI 相关基础设施的投资增加，以及即将推出的公司下一代 GPU 架构 Blackwell。</p>
<p>与我认为投资者卖出 Palantir 的原因类似，影响买入 Nvidia 决策的主要原因可能是估值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8dcc2c339ef8e5a5bcb64d1c41001ef6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8dcc2c339ef8e5a5bcb64d1c41001ef6.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>虽然 Nvidia 的估值并不便宜，但该公司的当前市盈率（P/E）和市自由现金流比率（P/FCF）相对与 10 年平均水平一致。考虑到 Nvidia 今天的规模远大于十年前，加上其在 AI 基础设施需求持续飙升的情况下继续获取增量市场份额的强大能力，投资者可以认为 Nvidia 实际上被低估——这使得它在目前成为一个特别有吸引力的买入和持有对象。</p>
<h2>总结</h2>
<p>虽然我理解现在卖出 Palantir 和买入 Nvidia 的决定，但我不能确定是什么驱动了我在本文中提到的投资组合经理的决策。</p>
<p>正如我在许多其他文章中所写，我认为 GPU 领域的竞争将很快侵蚀 Nvidia 的增长。因此，我并不完全相信 Nvidia 的估值实际上是合理的。</p>
<p>虽然我持有 Palantir 和 Nvidia 的股票，但我不会在各自的价格上增加持仓。</p>

PLTR

英伟达

<p>在 2024 年，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克指数大幅上涨，主要受到 Palantir 和 Nvidia 等人工智能股票的推动。Palantir 的股价上涨了 291%，而 Nvidia 则上涨了 179%。值得注意的是，像 Citadel Advisors 和 D.E. Shaw 这样的对冲基金大幅减持 Palantir 的股份，分别减少了 91% 和 45% 的持仓，同时将 Nvidia 的持仓增加了 194% 和超过 50%。分析师指出，Palantir 的高估值可能会促使抛售，而 Nvidia 的估值与历史平均水平相符，使其在不断增长的人工智能基础设施投资中成为更具吸引力的买入选择</p>

<p>So far in 2024, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index has gained an impressive 26% while the tech-heavy <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> has soared roughly 28%. Without a doubt, one of the biggest tailwinds fueling these market returns is artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 年，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了令人印象深刻的 26%，而以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 则飙升了约 28%。毫无疑问，推动这些市场回报的最大助力之一是人工智能（AI）。</p>
</div><p>Among AI's hottest stocks through 2024 are data analytics company <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -1.03%) and semiconductor leader <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.28%). Both companies have handily topped the markets this year -- with shares of Palantir rocketing by 291% while Nvidia has gained about 179% (as of market close Nov. 29).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年，AI 领域最热门的股票之一是数据分析公司 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.03%）和半导体领军企业 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.28%）。这两家公司在今年的市场表现都非常出色——Palantir 的股价飙升了 291%，而 Nvidia 的股价上涨了约 179%（截至 11 月 29 日市场收盘）。</p>
</div><p>With Palantir and Nvidia looking like two of the AI realm's most dominant forces, would you be surprised to learn that some of Wall Street's brightest minds are only buying one of these stocks right now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到 Palantir 和 Nvidia 看起来是 AI 领域最具主导地位的两家公司，你会惊讶于华尔街一些聪明的投资者目前只在购买其中一只股票吗？</p>
</div><p>Below, I'll outline moves made by some of the most prestigious hedge funds and detail why I think these decisions could make a lot of sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下面，我将概述一些最知名对冲基金的操作，并详细说明我认为这些决定可能非常合理的原因。</p>
</div><h2>How is Wall Street investing in Palantir and Nvidia?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街如何投资 Palantir 和 Nvidia？</h2>
</div><p>Thanks to an incredibly helpful tool called the form 13F, everyday investors can get a glimpse into what stocks large institutional investors are buying and selling. Below, I've quantified the buys and sells between Palantir and Nvidia stock among two notable hedge fund managers during the third quarter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益于一个非常有用的工具——13F 表格，普通投资者可以窥见大型机构投资者正在买入和卖出的股票。下面，我量化了在第三季度两位知名对冲基金经理之间 Palantir 和 Nvidia 股票的买入和卖出情况：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Ken Griffin (Citadel Advisors)</strong>: In the September-ended quarter, Ken Griffin's Citadel Advisors sold 5,172,681 shares of Palantir -- reducing the fund's exposure by 91% in the process. At the same time, Griffin and his constituents increased Citadel's stake in Nvidia by 194% -- adding over 4.7 million shares.</li>
<li><strong>David Shaw (D.E. Shaw)</strong>: Another hedge fund that trimmed its stake in Palantir during the third quarter was D.E. Shaw, which sold 8.7 million shares of the software giant and reduced its position by 45%. Similar to Citadel, D.E. Shaw increased its exposure in Nvidia by more than 50%, buying nearly 6 million shares in the quarter.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Ken Griffin（Citadel Advisors）</strong>：在截至 9 月的季度中，Ken Griffin 的 Citadel Advisors 出售了 5,172,681 股 Palantir，减少了该基金 91% 的持仓。同时，Griffin 及其团队将 Citadel 在 Nvidia 的持股增加了 194%——增加了超过 470 万股。</li>
<li><strong>David Shaw（D.E. Shaw）</strong>：在第三季度中，另一家削减 Palantir 持仓的对冲基金是 D.E. Shaw，该基金出售了 870 万股这家软件巨头的股票，减少了 45% 的持仓。与 Citadel 类似，D.E. Shaw 在 Nvidia 的持仓增加了超过 50%，在该季度购买了近 600 万股。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Let's dig into what may have influenced the decisions to trim Palantir while adding Nvidia over the last few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们深入探讨一下，是什么因素影响了在过去几个月削减 Palantir 持仓而增加 Nvidia 持仓的决定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTk0NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1ODA0OTc3Ny01LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799441%2Fgettyimages-1358049777-5.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why sell Palantir right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么现在卖出 Palantir？</h2>
</div><p>In April 2023, Palantir launched its fourth major software suite -- the Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). The advent of AIP has catapulted Palantir into the forefront of the AI narrative, helping the company accelerate revenue across both the commercial and public sectors, all while achieving notable margin expansion and consistent profitability. While Palantir's current rate of growth and future outlook are impressive, there is one obvious reason to sell the stock right now: valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年 4 月，Palantir 推出了其第四个主要软件套件——Palantir 人工智能平台（AIP）。AIP 的出现使 Palantir 在 AI 叙事中处于前沿，帮助公司在商业和公共部门加速收入增长，同时实现显著的利润率扩张和持续盈利。尽管 Palantir 当前的增长率和未来前景令人印象深刻，但现在卖出该股票有一个明显的原因：估值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2530e1d309d29abbfa38e821802b4cc6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2530e1d309d29abbfa38e821802b4cc6.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>As of the time of this writing, Palantir is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 61. As the chart above illustrates, the company has experienced notable valuation expansion throughout 2024 and has emerged as one of the priciest software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks among its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至本文撰写时，Palantir 的市销率（P/S）为 61。如上图所示，该公司在 2024 年经历了显著的估值扩张，并成为同行中最昂贵的软件即服务（SaaS）股票之一。</p>
</div><p>To put it plainly, there is a really good argument to be made that Palantir stock is overbought. Given how much momentum shares have witnessed in such short order, I can't blame the teams at Citadel and D.E. Shaw for reducing their exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，有一个非常好的理由可以认为 Palantir 的股票被高估。考虑到股价在如此短的时间内经历了如此大的动能，我不能责怪 Citadel 和 D.E. Shaw 的团队减少他们的持仓。</p>
</div><p>The stock has had a historic run, and now appears to be a logical opportunity to lock in some profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票经历了历史性的上涨，现在似乎是锁定一些利润的合理机会。</p>
</div><h2>Why buy Nvidia right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么现在买入 Nvidia？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia is one of the most important pillars supporting the entire AI ecosystem right now. The company's chip sets, known as graphics processing units (GPUs), are perhaps the most coveted piece of infrastructure for generative AI development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 是目前支撑整个 AI 生态系统的最重要支柱之一。该公司的芯片组，称为图形处理单元（GPU），可能是生成性 AI 开发中最受追捧的基础设施。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, the two most obvious catalysts fueling Nvidia's bull case thesis over the next few years are rising investment in AI-related infrastructure combined with the upcoming launch of the company's next generation GPU architecture, Blackwell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，推动 Nvidia 牛市论点的两个最明显的催化剂是对 AI 相关基础设施的投资增加，以及即将推出的公司下一代 GPU 架构 Blackwell。</p>
</div><p>Similar to why I think investors are selling Palantir, the primary reason influencing the decisions to buy Nvidia could be valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与我认为投资者卖出 Palantir 的原因类似，影响买入 Nvidia 决策的主要原因可能是估值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8dcc2c339ef8e5a5bcb64d1c41001ef6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8dcc2c339ef8e5a5bcb64d1c41001ef6.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PE 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia's valuation isn't cheap per se, the company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) multiples are trading relatively in line with 10-year averages. Given Nvidia is a much larger entity today than it was a decade ago, coupled with its strong position to continue acquiring incremental market share as demand for AI infrastructure continues to soar, investors could argue that Nvidia is actually undervalued -- making it a particularly compelling buy and hold at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Nvidia 的估值并不便宜，但该公司的当前市盈率（P/E）和市自由现金流比率（P/FCF）相对与 10 年平均水平一致。考虑到 Nvidia 今天的规模远大于十年前，加上其在 AI 基础设施需求持续飙升的情况下继续获取增量市场份额的强大能力，投资者可以认为 Nvidia 实际上被低估——这使得它在目前成为一个特别有吸引力的买入和持有对象。</p>
</div><h2>The bottom line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>总结</h2>
</div><p>While I understand the decision to sell Palantir and buy Nvidia right now, I can't say for certain what drove the decisions of the portfolio managers that I mentioned in this piece.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我理解现在卖出 Palantir 和买入 Nvidia 的决定，但我不能确定是什么驱动了我在本文中提到的投资组合经理的决策。</p>
</div><p>As I've written in many other articles, I think competition in the GPU space is going to eat into Nvidia's growth sooner rather than later. For that reason, I haven't entirely bought into the notion that Nvidia's valuation is actually all that reasonable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我在许多其他文章中所写，我认为 GPU 领域的竞争将很快侵蚀 Nvidia 的增长。因此，我并不完全相信 Nvidia 的估值实际上是合理的。</p>
</div><p>While I own shares in both Palantir and Nvidia, I won't be adding to either position at their respective prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我持有 Palantir 和 Nvidia 的股票，但我不会在各自的价格上增加持仓。</p>
</div>

Palantir Stock vs. Nvidia Stock: Billionaires Are Buying One and Selling the Other

- 2024 年，S&P 500 指数上涨 26%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 28%。  
- Citadel 和 D.E. Shaw 在第三季度分别减持 Palantir 并增持 Nvidia。  
- Palantir 估值过高，而 Nvidia 在 AI 基础设施中占据重要地位。  

Palantir 股票与英伟达股票：亿万富翁在买入一个并卖出另一个