<p>随着我们快速接近 2024 年的结束，是时候开始为新的一年制定财务计划了。这可能意味着最大化您的退休账户，完成任何慈善捐款，或者简单地调整您的月度预算。</p>
<p>但如果您正在投资股市，现在是检查您的投资组合的关键时刻——不仅仅是因为我们即将迎来新的一年。由于股价创下历史新高，许多投资者担心我们正处于一个可能即将破裂的泡沫中。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTk0MTIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTk0MTIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>虽然无法确切知道未来几个月市场会如何变化，但每位投资者现在都应该采取一个重要的行动。</p>
<h2>我们是否面临市场下滑？</h2>
<p>下一个经济衰退何时发生尚不清楚，但即使是最强劲的牛市也无法永远持续。<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.24%) 自 2022 年 10 月触底以来已上涨近 70%，股价在未来几个月甚至几年内继续飙升的可能性依然存在。</p>
<p>尽管如此，现在仍然有充分的理由保持谨慎。虽然一些专家预测美国经济将在 2025 年实现软着陆，但根据 2024 年 11 月的数据，纽约联邦储备银行认为我们在未来 12 个月内经历衰退的可能性为 42%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c1238cc95e47244af4a8cbcf3a9302aa.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c1238cc95e47244af4a8cbcf3a9302aa.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特也对这样的时刻发出了警告。在 1999 年，即互联网泡沫破裂前，他预测市场即将迎来重大下滑。他用来做出这一预测的指标（后来被称为 “巴菲特指标”）是美国股市总市值与美国国内生产总值（GDP）的比率。</p>
<p>在后来发表在《福布斯》上的一篇文章中，巴菲特解释道：“如果百分比关系降到 70% 或 80% 的区域，购买股票可能会对您非常有利。如果比率接近 200%——就像 1999 年和 2000 年部分时间那样——您就是在玩火。”</p>
<p>截至 2024 年 11 月，巴菲特指标刚刚达到 203.09%。虽然这并不是恐慌的理由（巴菲特本人也指出这个指标并不完美），但现在可能是仔细检查您的投资组合是否稳固的明智时机。</p>
<h2>您现在可以做的最佳投资举措</h2>
<p>再次强调，未来是否会出现下滑并没有保证。但做好准备总是有益的，而保护您的投资组合的最佳方法之一是检查您所持有的每只股票是否基于稳固的基本面。</p>
<p>在过去两年中，股票价格一直在飙升，但飙升的股价并不总是意味着一家公司是一个好的投资。一些股票可能会因乐观情绪而上涨，尤其是当投资者被特定行业或整体市场的炒作所吸引时。</p>
<p>如果一只股票被高估，它的交易价格显著高于基于其盈利前景和增长潜力的合理价格。这类股票更可能面临大幅修正，使其成为潜在的风险投资——尤其是在市场下滑即将来临时。</p>
<p>因此，现在正是仔细审查您的投资组合并确认每只股票是否值得保留的最佳时机。如果您发现有些股票不再是强劲的投资，现在可能是趁价格仍然较高而出售的明智机会。</p>
<h2>如何判断您的股票是否被高估</h2>
<p>判断一只股票是否仍然是强劲投资可能很棘手，尤其是考虑到许多因素。</p>
<p>市盈率（P/E）或市盈增长比率（PEG）等指标是一个良好的起点，因为它们可以帮助衡量公司相对于其股价的增长潜力。企业价值与息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）的比率是另一个可以让您了解公司盈利潜力的指标。</p>
<p>然而，财务指标并不是判断一只股票是否是强劲投资的唯一方法。审视大局，考察行业趋势和公司的管理团队也是明智的。无论一家公司在财务上多么强劲，如果其领导团队持续做出可疑的决策，例如，它可能没有能力在艰难的经济时期生存。</p>
<p>尽管目前股市的未来可能不确定，但没有理由恐慌。相反，利用这个机会深入研究您的投资，确保每只股票仍然值得在您的投资组合中占有一席之地。您现在准备得越充分，未来无论何时出现下滑，您就会越好。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>随着 2024 年的结束，投资者被建议审查他们的投资组合，因为股票价格高企且市场可能出现下行。自 2022 年 10 月以来，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了近 70%，但专家警告可能会出现衰退，纽约联邦储备银行估计明年衰退的可能性为 42%。沃伦·巴菲特的 “巴菲特指标” 显示出谨慎的信号，因为它最近达到了 203.09%。投资者应评估股票的基本面，并考虑在 2025 年前出售被高估的股票以降低风险</p>

<p>As we barrel toward the end of 2024, it's time to begin making financial plans for the new year. That could mean maxing out your retirement accounts, finishing up any charitable donations, or simply finessing your monthly budget.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着我们快速接近 2024 年的结束，是时候开始为新的一年制定财务计划了。这可能意味着最大化您的退休账户，完成任何慈善捐款，或者简单地调整您的月度预算。</p>
</div><p>But if you're investing in the stock market, right now is a crucial time to check in on your portfolio -- and not just because we're close to a new year. With stock prices at record highs, many investors are worried that we're in a bubble that could be close to popping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果您正在投资股市，现在是检查您的投资组合的关键时刻——不仅仅是因为我们即将迎来新的一年。由于股价创下历史新高，许多投资者担心我们正处于一个可能即将破裂的泡沫中。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83OTk0MTIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F799412%2Ftwo-people-sitting-on-a-couch-looking-at-a-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>While there's no way to know for certain what the market will do in the coming months, there's one important move every single investor should be making right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然无法确切知道未来几个月市场会如何变化，但每位投资者现在都应该采取一个重要的行动。</p>
</div><h2>Are we headed for a market downturn?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我们是否面临市场下滑？</h2>
</div><p>It's unclear when the next slump will happen, but even the strongest bull markets can't last forever. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.24%) has soared by close to 70% since it bottomed out in October 2022, and there's a chance stock prices will continue to surge for many more months or even years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一个经济衰退何时发生尚不清楚，但即使是最强劲的牛市也无法永远持续。<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.24%) 自 2022 年 10 月触底以来已上涨近 70%，股价在未来几个月甚至几年内继续飙升的可能性依然存在。</p>
</div><p>That said, there's still good reason to be cautious right now. While some experts predict the U.S. economy will face a soft landing in 2025, the New York Fed maintains that there's a 42% chance we'll experience a recession in the next 12 months, according to November 2024 data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，现在仍然有充分的理由保持谨慎。虽然一些专家预测美国经济将在 2025 年实现软着陆，但根据 2024 年 11 月的数据，纽约联邦储备银行认为我们在未来 12 个月内经历衰退的可能性为 42%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c1238cc95e47244af4a8cbcf3a9302aa.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c1238cc95e47244af4a8cbcf3a9302aa.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>^SPX 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has also issued warnings about times like these. Back in 1999, just ahead of the dot-com bubble burst, he predicted that the market was on the verge of a major downturn. The metric he used to make this prediction (which was later nicknamed the &#34;Buffett indicator&#34;) was the ratio of the total U.S. stock market value to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特也对这样的时刻发出了警告。在 1999 年，即互联网泡沫破裂前，他预测市场即将迎来重大下滑。他用来做出这一预测的指标（后来被称为 “巴菲特指标”）是美国股市总市值与美国国内生产总值（GDP）的比率。</p>
</div><p>In an essay later published in Forbes, Buffett explained that &#34;[i] f the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200% -- as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 -- you are playing with fire.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在后来发表在《福布斯》上的一篇文章中，巴菲特解释道：“如果百分比关系降到 70% 或 80% 的区域，购买股票可能会对您非常有利。如果比率接近 200%——就像 1999 年和 2000 年部分时间那样——您就是在玩火。”</p>
</div><p>As of November 2024, the Buffett indicator just reached 203.09%. While that's no reason to panic (Buffett himself has noted that this metric isn't perfect), right now may be a smart time to double-check that your portfolio is on solid footing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 年 11 月，巴菲特指标刚刚达到 203.09%。虽然这并不是恐慌的理由（巴菲特本人也指出这个指标并不完美），但现在可能是仔细检查您的投资组合是否稳固的明智时机。</p>
</div><h2>The single best investing move you could make right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>您现在可以做的最佳投资举措</h2>
</div><p>Again, there are no guarantees that a downturn is around the corner. But it never hurts to prepare just in case, and one of the best things you can do to protect your portfolio is to check that each stock you own is based on solid fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再次强调，未来是否会出现下滑并没有保证。但做好准备总是有益的，而保护您的投资组合的最佳方法之一是检查您所持有的每只股票是否基于稳固的基本面。</p>
</div><p>Stocks have been surging over the last two years, but a soaring stock price doesn't always mean that a company is a good investment. Some stocks can ride the wave of optimism, especially if investors are caught up in hype over a particular industry or the market as a whole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两年中，股票价格一直在飙升，但飙升的股价并不总是意味着一家公司是一个好的投资。一些股票可能会因乐观情绪而上涨，尤其是当投资者被特定行业或整体市场的炒作所吸引时。</p>
</div><p>If a stock is overvalued, it's trading at a price that's significantly higher than it probably should be based on its earnings outlook and growth potential. These types of stocks are more likely to face a substantial correction, making them potentially risky investments -- especially if a market downturn is looming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果一只股票被高估，它的交易价格显著高于基于其盈利前景和增长潜力的合理价格。这类股票更可能面临大幅修正，使其成为潜在的风险投资——尤其是在市场下滑即将来临时。</p>
</div><p>Right now, then, is the perfect time to comb through your portfolio and double-check that each of your stocks deserves to be there. If you find any that are no longer strong investments, now could be a smart opportunity to sell while prices are still higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，现在正是仔细审查您的投资组合并确认每只股票是否值得保留的最佳时机。如果您发现有些股票不再是强劲的投资，现在可能是趁价格仍然较高而出售的明智机会。</p>
</div><h2>How to tell whether your stock is overvalued</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如何判断您的股票是否被高估</h2>
</div><p>It can be tricky to determine whether a stock is still a strong investment, especially when there are so many factors to consider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>判断一只股票是否仍然是强劲投资可能很棘手，尤其是考虑到许多因素。</p>
</div><p>Metrics like the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio or price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio are a good place to start, as they can help measure the company's growth potential in comparison to its stock price. The enterprise-value-to-EBITDA is another metric that can give you an idea of where the company's earnings potential stands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率（P/E）或市盈增长比率（PEG）等指标是一个良好的起点，因为它们可以帮助衡量公司相对于其股价的增长潜力。企业价值与息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）的比率是另一个可以让您了解公司盈利潜力的指标。</p>
</div><p>Financial metrics aren't the only way to determine whether a stock is a strong investment, though. It's also wise to look at the big picture, examining factors like industry trends and the company's management team. No matter how strong a business may be financially, if its leadership team is consistently making questionable decisions, for example, it may not have what it takes to survive tough economic times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，财务指标并不是判断一只股票是否是强劲投资的唯一方法。审视大局，考察行业趋势和公司的管理团队也是明智的。无论一家公司在财务上多么强劲，如果其领导团队持续做出可疑的决策，例如，它可能没有能力在艰难的经济时期生存。</p>
</div><p>The future of the stock market may be uncertain right now, but there's no reason to panic. Rather, it's wise to take this opportunity to do a deep dive into your investments and ensure every stock still deserves a place in your portfolio. The more you prepare now, the better off you'll be whenever the next downturn strikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管目前股市的未来可能不确定，但没有理由恐慌。相反，利用这个机会深入研究您的投资，确保每只股票仍然值得在您的投资组合中占有一席之地。您现在准备得越充分，未来无论何时出现下滑，您就会越好。</p>
</div>

1 Stock Market Move Every Single Investor Should Make Before 2025

- 2024 年末临近，投资者需检查投资组合以应对市场波动。  
- 目前标普 500 指数接近历史高点，巴菲特指标已达 203.09%。  
- 建议投资者审视持股基本面，及时调整以降低风险。  

每位投资者在 2025 年前都应该采取的一个股市行动