<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 1.30%) 一直以来都是长期股东的巨大赢家，而其竞争对手 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -0.99%) 也在不断增强的竞争中表现出色。在过去十年中，这两只股票的回报率都远超 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>，因为它们都受益于全球电子商务的增长，但这两家公司在市场策略上完全不同。</p>
<p>亚马逊通过垂直整合电子商务，使购物体验变得高效。Shopify 则希望成为支持第三方电子商务品牌的最佳软件和支付层。</p>
<p>随着投资者进入 2024 年的最后一个月，哪只股票现在是最佳购买选择？是时候深入研究这两只电子商务股票了。</p>
<h2>Shopify：专注于核心竞争力</h2>
<p>Shopify 的业务在 COVID-19 大流行期间得到了极大的推动。2020 年，收入同比增长达到 100%，这导致公司的股价飙升。</p>
<p>凭借这一成功，管理层决定在电子商务软件和支付之外大力投资新服务。这些服务包括物流网络、机器人技术，甚至是加密货币。任何与电子商务和支付相关的服务，Shopify 都在尝试为其客户开发产品。</p>
<p>在 2022 年和 2023 年，公司意识到自己扩展得过于分散，偏离了核心竞争力。亚马逊在电子商务物流方面是专家，<strong>UPS</strong> 和 <strong>FedEx</strong> 也是如此。追赶这些竞争对手需要数年时间和数百亿美元，而这些资金 Shopify 并不具备。在意识到这一点后，Shopify 决定削减大部分新业务领域，专注于其核心软件/支付产品，以帮助重新聚焦业务并提高盈利能力。</p>
<p>这一策略取得了极大的成功。收入增长稳定，而利润和自由现金流则大幅上升。上个季度，收入同比增长 26%，超过 20 亿美元。自由现金流利润率为 19%，而不到两年前则为负值。预计第四季度的收入增长仍将保持在中 20% 的范围内。</p>
<p>作为电子商务软件的主导者，Shopify 可以在未来十年内借助全球电子商务的东风达到新的高度。我不指望 26% 的收入增长会永远持续，但看起来公司已经找到了自己的节奏，并达到了投资的最佳点，同时保持了令股东满意的盈利水平。</p>
<h2>亚马逊：通过效率获胜</h2>
<p>如今，你可能会听到很多电子商务商家抱怨亚马逊。平台上有太多的赞助列表，太多竞争品牌。</p>
<p>虽然其中一些抱怨可能是事实，但电子商务品牌一次又一次地回到亚马逊上销售。为什么？因为它拥有最有效的仓储和物流网络，以及最大的电子商务客户群。</p>
<p>上个季度，亚马逊的北美零售销售同比增长 9%，达到 955 亿美元。国际收入的增长速度更快，年增长率为 12%。</p>
<p>在这些销售中，广告收入同比增长 19%，这一利润率高于亚马逊大多数业务部门。尽管全球范围内出现了像 Shopify 这样的竞争平台，但亚马逊仍然能够在电子商务领域保持领先，预计在美国市场的份额约为 40%。</p>
<p>与 Shopify 一样，亚马逊在支出方面变得更加高效，并开始扩大其利润率。在过去 12 个月中，亚马逊的营业利润率接近 10%，自由现金流为 430 亿美元。随着公司不断增长高利润率的广告等业务，投资者应该期待利润率继续扩大。</p>
<p>与 Shopify 相比，这似乎是一个古老而稳重的业务，但亚马逊的财务数据没有放缓的迹象。由于其庞大的 6200 亿美元收入基础，它的增长速度不会像 Shopify 那样快，但在未来几年，亚马逊仍有很大的扩展空间，同时也能提高盈利能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2ccf0e9f18e6176b6043c7972a89f82.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2ccf0e9f18e6176b6043c7972a89f82.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率 (P/E) (前瞻性) 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>哪只股票更值得购买？</h2>
<p>比较亚马逊和 Shopify 是困难的。从某种意义上说，它们都在通过削减成本来经历类似的财务轨迹，同时证明它们仍然能够增长并同时产生利润。Shopify 的业务规模要小得多，但这也是因为它只针对电子商务供应链中的几个环节。</p>
<p>根据其电子商务商家的总支出，Shopify 在美国的电子商务销售市场份额估计超过 10%，而亚马逊的市场份额约为 40%。我们不能忘记亚马逊的云计算部门，该部门每年产生近 1000 亿美元的收入和数十亿美元的利润。</p>
<p>在判断哪只股票更值得购买时，简单的方法是查看它们各自的估值。Shopify 的市值为 1420 亿美元，前瞻市盈率 (P/E) 为 86。亚马逊的前瞻市盈率则显著较低，仅为 41。</p>
<p>虽然预计在未来五年内，Shopify 的增长速度会略快于亚马逊，但我认为这并不值得其前瞻市盈率超过竞争对手的两倍。因此，我认为在今天的价格下，亚马逊是投资者更好的选择。</p>

亚马逊

SHOP

<p>亚马逊和 Shopify 是两只领先的电子商务股票，采用不同的战略。亚马逊专注于垂直整合模式，在美国市场占有 40% 的份额，并在广告收入方面实现了强劲增长。Shopify 在过度多元化后，重新聚焦于其核心软件和支付业务，上个季度实现了 26% 的收入增长。这两家公司都在改善盈利能力，但亚马逊更大的规模和云计算部门提供了竞争优势。投资者正在评估哪只股票在 2024 年即将到来之际提供了更好的买入机会</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.30%) has famously been a huge winner for long-term shareholders, and so has its increasingly intense competitor <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -0.99%). Both stocks have crushed the returns of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> over the last decade as they rode the tailwind of e-commerce growth around the world, but the two companies have entirely different market strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 1.30%) 一直以来都是长期股东的巨大赢家，而其竞争对手 <strong>Shopify</strong>(SHOP -0.99%) 也在不断增强的竞争中表现出色。在过去十年中，这两只股票的回报率都远超 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>，因为它们都受益于全球电子商务的增长，但这两家公司在市场策略上完全不同。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has vertically integrated e-commerce to make it the most efficient experience for shoppers. Shopify wants to be the best software and payment layer to power third-party e-commerce brands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊通过垂直整合电子商务，使购物体验变得高效。Shopify 则希望成为支持第三方电子商务品牌的最佳软件和支付层。</p>
</div><p>As investors head into the last month of 2024, which stock is the best buy right now? Time to take a deeper look into these two e-commerce stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着投资者进入 2024 年的最后一个月，哪只股票现在是最佳购买选择？是时候深入研究这两只电子商务股票了。</p>
</div><h2>Shopify: Focusing on core competencies</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Shopify：专注于核心竞争力</h2>
</div><p>Shopify's business was supercharged by the COVID-19 pandemic. Revenue started to grow 100% year over year in 2020, which caused the company's stock price to rocket higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shopify 的业务在 COVID-19 大流行期间得到了极大的推动。2020 年，收入同比增长达到 100%，这导致公司的股价飙升。</p>
</div><p>With all that success, management decided to invest heavily in new services outside of e-commerce software and payments. These included logistics networks, robotics, and even cryptocurrencies. Name any service relatively attached to the e-commerce and payments landscape, and Shopify was trying to build out products for its customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凭借这一成功，管理层决定在电子商务软件和支付之外大力投资新服务。这些服务包括物流网络、机器人技术，甚至是加密货币。任何与电子商务和支付相关的服务，Shopify 都在尝试为其客户开发产品。</p>
</div><p>In 2022 and 2023, the company realized it had spread itself too thin and was getting away from its core competencies. Amazon is the expert in e-commerce logistics, as are <strong>UPS</strong> and <strong>FedEx</strong>. It would take years and tens of billions of dollars that Shopify didn't have to catch these competitors. After this realization, Shopify decided to cut most of these new business segments and focus on its core software/payments offerings to help refocus the business and improve profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年和 2023 年，公司意识到自己扩展得过于分散，偏离了核心竞争力。亚马逊在电子商务物流方面是专家，<strong>UPS</strong> 和 <strong>FedEx</strong> 也是如此。追赶这些竞争对手需要数年时间和数百亿美元，而这些资金 Shopify 并不具备。在意识到这一点后，Shopify 决定削减大部分新业务领域，专注于其核心软件/支付产品，以帮助重新聚焦业务并提高盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>The strategy has worked wonderfully. Revenue growth stabilized, while profits and free cash flow are soaring. Last quarter, revenue grew 26% year over year to more than $2 billion. Free-cash-flow margin was 19%, compared to a negative margin less than two years ago. Revenue growth in the mid-20% range is expected to continue in the fourth quarter, as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一策略取得了极大的成功。收入增长稳定，而利润和自由现金流则大幅上升。上个季度，收入同比增长 26%，超过 20 亿美元。自由现金流利润率为 19%，而不到两年前则为负值。预计第四季度的收入增长仍将保持在中 20% 的范围内。</p>
</div><p>As the dominant player in e-commerce software, Shopify can ride the global e-commerce tailwind to new heights over the next decade. I wouldn't expect 26% revenue growth to continue forever, but it looks like the company has found its groove and hit the sweet spot of investing, while also maintaining a level of profitability that will please shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为电子商务软件的主导者，Shopify 可以在未来十年内借助全球电子商务的东风达到新的高度。我不指望 26% 的收入增长会永远持续，但看起来公司已经找到了自己的节奏，并达到了投资的最佳点，同时保持了令股东满意的盈利水平。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon: Winning through efficiencies</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊：通过效率获胜</h2>
</div><p>These days, you may hear a lot of e-commerce merchants complain about Amazon. Too many sponsored listings, too many competing brands on the platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，你可能会听到很多电子商务商家抱怨亚马逊。平台上有太多的赞助列表，太多竞争品牌。</p>
</div><p>While some of this may be true, e-commerce brands return to selling on Amazon time and time again. Why? Because it has the most efficient warehouse and logistics network, as well as the largest group of e-commerce customers to sell to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然其中一些抱怨可能是事实，但电子商务品牌一次又一次地回到亚马逊上销售。为什么？因为它拥有最有效的仓储和物流网络，以及最大的电子商务客户群。</p>
</div><p>Last quarter, Amazon's North American retail sales grew 9% year over year to $95.5 billion. International revenue was growing even faster at a 12% annual clip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个季度，亚马逊的北美零售销售同比增长 9%，达到 955 亿美元。国际收入的增长速度更快，年增长率为 12%。</p>
</div><p>Within these sales, advertising revenue grew 19% year over year, which is a higher margin than most of Amazon's business segments. Despite competing platforms such as Shopify popping up around the world, Amazon has been able to retain its lead in the e-commerce landscape with an estimated 40% market share in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些销售中，广告收入同比增长 19%，这一利润率高于亚马逊大多数业务部门。尽管全球范围内出现了像 Shopify 这样的竞争平台，但亚马逊仍然能够在电子商务领域保持领先，预计在美国市场的份额约为 40%。</p>
</div><p>Like Shopify, Amazon has gotten much more efficient with its spending and started expanding its profit margins. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's operating margin was close to 10%, and free cash flow was $43 billion. As the company keeps growing high-margin segments such as advertising, investors should expect profit margins to keep expanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 Shopify 一样，亚马逊在支出方面变得更加高效，并开始扩大其利润率。在过去 12 个月中，亚马逊的营业利润率接近 10%，自由现金流为 430 亿美元。随着公司不断增长高利润率的广告等业务，投资者应该期待利润率继续扩大。</p>
</div><p>It may seem like an old stodgy business, compared to Shopify, but Amazon's financials show no signs of slowing. It won't grow as quickly as Shopify due to its massive $620 billion revenue base, but there's still plenty of room for Amazon to expand in the coming years, while also improving its profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 Shopify 相比，这似乎是一个古老而稳重的业务，但亚马逊的财务数据没有放缓的迹象。由于其庞大的 6200 亿美元收入基础，它的增长速度不会像 Shopify 那样快，但在未来几年，亚马逊仍有很大的扩展空间，同时也能提高盈利能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2ccf0e9f18e6176b6043c7972a89f82.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b2ccf0e9f18e6176b6043c7972a89f82.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E) (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率 (P/E) (前瞻性) 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Which stock is the better buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>哪只股票更值得购买？</h2>
</div><p>Comparing Amazon and Shopify is difficult. In some sense, they're both going through similar financial trajectories by trimming costs, but also proving they can still grow and simultaneously generate a profit. Shopify is a much smaller business, but that's because it only targets a few points in the e-commerce supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比较亚马逊和 Shopify 是困难的。从某种意义上说，它们都在通过削减成本来经历类似的财务轨迹，同时证明它们仍然能够增长并同时产生利润。Shopify 的业务规模要小得多，但这也是因为它只针对电子商务供应链中的几个环节。</p>
</div><p>Looking at total spending from its e-commerce merchants, Shopify is estimated to have more than 10% market share of e-commerce sales in the United States, while Amazon's is around 40%. Let's not forget Amazon's cloud computing division, which generates close to $100 billion in annual revenue and tens of billions in profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据其电子商务商家的总支出，Shopify 在美国的电子商务销售市场份额估计超过 10%，而亚马逊的市场份额约为 40%。我们不能忘记亚马逊的云计算部门，该部门每年产生近 1000 亿美元的收入和数十亿美元的利润。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to which stock is a better buy, the simple thing to do is look at their respective valuations. Shopify trades at a market cap of $142 billion and a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 86. Amazon's forward P/E is significantly lower at just 41.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在判断哪只股票更值得购买时，简单的方法是查看它们各自的估值。Shopify 的市值为 1420 亿美元，前瞻市盈率 (P/E) 为 86。亚马逊的前瞻市盈率则显著较低，仅为 41。</p>
</div><p>While Shopify should grow slightly faster than Amazon over the next five years, I don't think it warrants a forward P/E of more than double its competitor. For this reason, I think Amazon is the better buy for investors at today's prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然预计在未来五年内，Shopify 的增长速度会略快于亚马逊，但我认为这并不值得其前瞻市盈率超过竞争对手的两倍。因此，我认为在今天的价格下，亚马逊是投资者更好的选择。</p>
</div>

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Amazon vs. Shopify

- 亚马逊和 Shopify 在电商领域表现出色，但市场策略不同。  
- Shopify 专注于软件和支付，近期重回核心业务，收入增长稳定。  
- 亚马逊凭借高效的物流网络和广告收入保持市场领先，预计利润将继续增长。

当前最值得购买的股票：亚马逊 vs. Shopify