<p>利率下降的环境通常是股市的积极催化剂。由于无风险投资（如定期存款）的利率降低，更多资金流入风险较高的资产，如股票。此外，借贷成本降低使人们更愿意花钱，从而导致经济活动增加。</p>
<p>话虽如此，股市中有些领域在利率下降时受益更大。其中一个特别的领域是房地产，而在美联储仍处于降息周期的早期阶段时，寻找优质房地产股票可能是一个绝佳的时机。<strong>Realty Income</strong>（O 0.25%）是市场上最高质量的房地产投资信托基金之一，目前的交易价格显著低于其峰值。以下是为什么这只 5.6% 收益率、每月分红的股票可能是您在 2024 年底前值得关注的聪明选择。</p>
<h2>Realty Income 的业务适合复利增长</h2>
<p>Realty Income 在美国和欧洲拥有约 15,500 处物业。约 80% 的租金收入来自零售租户，但不要因此而感到害怕。该公司绝大多数的零售租户都处于抗衰退、免受电子商务冲击的行业，或者两者兼具。</p>
<p>具体来说，90% 的投资组合符合以下一个或多个类别：</p>
<ul>
<li>非选择性零售商，销售人们无论经济状况如何都需要的商品。药店就是一个很好的例子。</li>
<li>折扣导向的零售商以连在线巨头都无法匹配的价格销售商品，并且在衰退期间往往表现更好。美元商店是 Realty Income 的主要租户类型之一，仓储俱乐部也是。</li>
<li>基于服务的零售商销售体验或服务，而不是实物产品。这些企业，如汽车修理店和健身中心，不容易受到电子商务的干扰。</li>
<li>非零售物业，如工业、农业和游戏物业，显然不容易受到零售方面的阻力。</li>
</ul>
<p>不仅租户稳固，Realty Income 的租户还签署长期净租约，内置租金增长，并要求租户支付税费、保险和维护费用。Realty Income 所需做的就是找到优质租户，并享受年复一年可靠且不断增长的收入。</p>
<p>Realty Income 已经作为一家上市 REIT 运营了 30 年，并且在此期间轻松超越了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的总回报。此外，截至目前，该股票的股息收益率为 5.6%，并且已经连续 108 个季度增加分红。</p>
<h2>该股票表现不佳</h2>
<p>近年来，Realty Income 的表现不及市场。尽管这里存在一些租户风险，但主要原因并不是公司的业务，而是利率。</p>
<p>事实上，自 2022 年初以来，<strong>先锋房地产 ETF</strong>（VNQ -0.27%），作为整体房地产行业的良好指标，已经交出了负 7% 的总回报。另一方面，即使考虑到 2022 年熊市的影响，标准普尔 500 指数在同一时期的总回报也达到了 32%。</p>
<p>不深入经济学课程，REIT 对利率高度敏感，特别是与 10 年期国债收益率通常呈反向关系。请注意，图表的峰值和谷值是同时发生的，例如房地产股票的低点与 2023 年底 10 年期国债的峰值相吻合。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eb99053dd33b7445b2567ced5b525acb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eb99053dd33b7445b2567ced5b525acb.png"/></p>
<p>VNQ 总回报价格数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>现在，10 年期国债与美联储降息之间并没有完美的相关性，但它确实倾向于朝同一方向移动。如果美联储在未来几年内如广泛预期的那样多次降息，Realty Income 可能处于超越市场的绝佳位置。</p>

<p>美联储的降息预计将对股市产生积极影响，特别是对像 Realty Income 这样的房地产股票有利，该公司提供 5.6% 的股息收益率。Realty Income 是一家领先的房地产投资信托（REIT），拥有强大的投资组合，租户抗衰退且租约长期。尽管由于利率上升近期表现不佳，但其历史表现优于标准普尔 500 指数。随着利率持续下降，Realty Income 可能会成为一个强劲的投资机会，因为它在未来几年可能会表现优异</p>

<p>A falling-interest-rate environment is generally a positive catalyst for the stock market. With lower rates from risk-free investments such as CDs, more money rotates into riskier assets like stocks. Plus, lower borrowing costs make people more comfortable with spending money, leading to increased economic activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率下降的环境通常是股市的积极催化剂。由于无风险投资（如定期存款）的利率降低，更多资金流入风险较高的资产，如股票。此外，借贷成本降低使人们更愿意花钱，从而导致经济活动增加。</p>
</div><p>Having said that, there are some areas of the stock market that tend to benefit from falling rates more than others. One in particular is real estate, and it could be a great time to shop for top-notch real estate stocks while the Federal Reserve is still in the early stages of its rate-cutting cycle. <strong>Realty Income</strong>(O 0.25%) is one of the highest-quality real estate investment trusts, or REITs, in the market and is trading for a significant discount to its peak. Here's why this 5.6%-yielding, monthly dividend stock could be a smart one to put on your radar right as we approach the end of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，股市中有些领域在利率下降时受益更大。其中一个特别的领域是房地产，而在美联储仍处于降息周期的早期阶段时，寻找优质房地产股票可能是一个绝佳的时机。<strong>Realty Income</strong>（O 0.25%）是市场上最高质量的房地产投资信托基金之一，目前的交易价格显著低于其峰值。以下是为什么这只 5.6% 收益率、每月分红的股票可能是您在 2024 年底前值得关注的聪明选择。</p>
</div><h2>Realty Income's business is built for compounding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Realty Income 的业务适合复利增长</h2>
</div><p>Realty Income owns about 15,500 properties in the United States and Europe. About 80% of its rental income is from retail tenants, but don't let that scare you away. The vast majority of the company's retail tenants are in businesses that are recession-resistant, immune to e-commerce disruption, or both.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Realty Income 在美国和欧洲拥有约 15,500 处物业。约 80% 的租金收入来自零售租户，但不要因此而感到害怕。该公司绝大多数的零售租户都处于抗衰退、免受电子商务冲击的行业，或者两者兼具。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, 90% of its portfolio fits into one or more of the following categories:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体来说，90% 的投资组合符合以下一个或多个类别：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Non-discretionary retailers that sell things people <em>need</em>, regardless of what the economy is doing. Drugstores are a great example.</li>
<li>Discount-oriented retailers sell things at prices even the online megaretailers can't match and tend to actually perform better in recessions. Dollar stores are one of Realty Income's top tenant types, as are warehouse clubs.</li>
<li>Service-based retailers sell experiences or services instead of physical products. These businesses, such as auto repair shops and fitness centers, aren't easily disrupted by e-commerce.</li>
<li>Non-retail properties such as industrial, agricultural, and gaming properties are obviously not prone to any retail headwinds.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>非选择性零售商，销售人们无论经济状况如何都需要的商品。药店就是一个很好的例子。</li>
<li>折扣导向的零售商以连在线巨头都无法匹配的价格销售商品，并且在衰退期间往往表现更好。美元商店是 Realty Income 的主要租户类型之一，仓储俱乐部也是。</li>
<li>基于服务的零售商销售体验或服务，而不是实物产品。这些企业，如汽车修理店和健身中心，不容易受到电子商务的干扰。</li>
<li>非零售物业，如工业、农业和游戏物业，显然不容易受到零售方面的阻力。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Not only are the tenants solid, but Realty Income's tenants also sign long-term net leases that have built-in rent growth and require the tenants to pay taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. All Realty Income has to do is get a quality tenant in place and enjoy year after year of reliable and growing income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不仅租户稳固，Realty Income 的租户还签署长期净租约，内置租金增长，并要求租户支付税费、保险和维护费用。Realty Income 所需做的就是找到优质租户，并享受年复一年可靠且不断增长的收入。</p>
</div><p>Realty Income has been a publicly traded REIT for 30 years and has handily beaten the total return of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> over the same period. Plus, the stock has a 5.6% dividend yield as of this writing and has increased its payout for 108 consecutive quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Realty Income 已经作为一家上市 REIT 运营了 30 年，并且在此期间轻松超越了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的总回报。此外，截至目前，该股票的股息收益率为 5.6%，并且已经连续 108 个季度增加分红。</p>
</div><h2>The stock has been an underperformer</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>该股票表现不佳</h2>
</div><p>Realty Income has underperformed the market in recent years. And while there is <em>some</em> tenant risk at play here, the primary reason isn't the company's business. It's interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，Realty Income 的表现不及市场。尽管这里存在一些租户风险，但主要原因并不是公司的业务，而是利率。</p>
</div><p>In fact, since the beginning of 2022, the <strong>Vanguard Real Estate ETF</strong>(VNQ -0.27%), which is a solid indicator of the overall real estate sector, has delivered a <em>negative-</em> 7% total return. On the other hand, even including the effects of the 2022 bear market, the S&amp;P 500 has returned a total of 32% during the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，自 2022 年初以来，<strong>先锋房地产 ETF</strong>（VNQ -0.27%），作为整体房地产行业的良好指标，已经交出了负 7% 的总回报。另一方面，即使考虑到 2022 年熊市的影响，标准普尔 500 指数在同一时期的总回报也达到了 32%。</p>
</div><p>Without getting into an economics lesson, REITs are highly sensitive to interest rates and specifically tend to have an inverse relationship with the 10-year Treasury yield. Notice that the peaks and valleys of the charts happen simultaneously, such as with the low point in real estate stocks that coincided with the peak in the 10-year Treasury in late 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不深入经济学课程，REIT 对利率高度敏感，特别是与 10 年期国债收益率通常呈反向关系。请注意，图表的峰值和谷值是同时发生的，例如房地产股票的低点与 2023 年底 10 年期国债的峰值相吻合。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eb99053dd33b7445b2567ced5b525acb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eb99053dd33b7445b2567ced5b525acb.png"/></p>
<p>VNQ Total Return Price data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VNQ 总回报价格数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Now, the 10-year Treasury doesn't have a perfect correlation with Federal Reserve rate cuts, but it does tend to gravitate in the same direction. If the Fed ends up cutting rates several more times over the next couple of years, as is widely expected, Realty Income could be in an excellent position to outperform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，10 年期国债与美联储降息之间并没有完美的相关性，但它确实倾向于朝同一方向移动。如果美联储在未来几年内如广泛预期的那样多次降息，Realty Income 可能处于超越市场的绝佳位置。</p>
</div>

The Fed Cut Interest Rates. Here's Why This Excellent High-Dividend Stock Is a Buy.

- 低利率环境通常利好股市，资金流向风险资产。  
- Realty Income 是优质房地产投资信托，租户大多为抗衰退商家。  
- 若美联储继续降息，Realty Income 可能表现优异。

Motley Fool

美联储降息。这就是为什么这只优秀的高股息股票值得买入的原因