<p>“七巨头” 中的四位成员在年初至今的表现超过了基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)。<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 5.34%) 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 2.94%) 包含在其中，股价分别上涨了 57% 和 49%。但以下的亿万富翁对冲基金经理在第三季度买入了一只，卖出了另一只。</p>
<ul>
<li>摩尔资本管理的路易斯·贝肯购买了 25,000 股特斯拉，增加了 19% 的持仓。同时，他卖出了 616,475 股亚马逊，减少了 76% 的持仓。特斯拉上升至他的第 13 大持仓，而亚马逊降至第 16 大。</li>
<li>西塔德顾问的肯·格里芬购买了 110 万股特斯拉，几乎增加了 400% 的持仓。同时，他卖出了 720 万股亚马逊，减少了 94% 的持仓。亚马逊曾是他的最大持仓，排除期权和指数基金。</li>
<li>第三点的丹·洛布购买了 40 万股特斯拉，开始了新的持仓。他还卖出了 140 万股亚马逊，减少了 27% 的持仓。亚马逊曾是他的最大持仓，但现在排名第二。</li>
</ul>
<p>投资者可以通过跟踪成功的基金经理的交易学到很多东西，但重要的是要保持视角。上述交易发生在两个月前结束的第三季度。随着我们迈向 2025 年，投资者需要了解特斯拉和亚马逊的情况。</p>
<h2>特斯拉：一些亿万富翁正在购买的股票</h2>
<p>特斯拉是电池电动汽车的领先制造商，尽管在过去一年中，由于竞争加剧和经济环境严峻，其市场份额下降了约 3 个百分点。在此期间，该公司连续几个季度报告了令人失望的财务结果，因为为了刺激需求而进行的降价侵蚀了利润率。</p>
<p>特斯拉在第三季度开始恢复一些势头。交付量在前一季度下降 5% 后增加了 6%。因此，收入增加了 8%，达到 250 亿美元，营业利润率扩大了 3 个百分点，非公认会计原则（non-GAAP）每股收益增加了 9%，达到 0.72 美元。该公司还表示，明年将推出更多经济型车型，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克相信，2025 年的交付量可能会增长 20% 到 30%。</p>
<p>然而，特斯拉最大的机会在于人工智能（AI）软件和服务。该公司计划明年在加利福尼亚和德克萨斯州发布其无监督版本的全自动驾驶（FSD）软件。它还将在这些市场推出自动驾驶打车服务。此外，特斯拉正在与其他汽车制造商洽谈许可其 FSD 软件。</p>
<p>埃隆·马斯克表示，随着自动驾驶技术成为更大收入来源，毛利率可能超过 70%。但他认为，人形机器人 Optimus 将是公司最有价值的产品。在第三季度的财报电话会议上，他告诉分析师：“我可以自信地说，我们拥有最先进的人形机器人，远远领先于其他。”</p>
<p>展望未来，华尔街预计特斯拉的调整后收益将在明年增长 28%，这使得当前 160 倍的调整后收益估值显得荒谬。但这一共识估计未考虑到自动驾驶技术可能在几年内带来的收入增长和利润率扩张，市场绝对在一定程度上定价了这些可能性。</p>
<p>这使得投资者处于一个棘手的境地：如果特斯拉未能实现其关于 FSD 和自动驾驶共享的目标，股价可能会崩溃。但如果特斯拉实现了这些目标，它可能会彻底改变出行和交通行业。同样的逻辑也适用于其在机器人领域的雄心。</p>
<p>就个人而言，我认为年轻投资者（即那些有长期投资视野的人）如果能接受波动，应该对特斯拉有一定的投资。虽然该股票无疑价格昂贵，但任何符合这些标准的人都应该考虑今天小幅买入。但我也认为未来会出现更好的机会，因此股东应该准备在股价回调时买入。</p>
<h2>亚马逊：一些亿万富翁正在出售的股票</h2>
<p>亚马逊在电子商务、数字广告和云计算方面占据强势地位。具体而言，它在北美和西欧的在线市场中按销售额计算是最大的。它是全球第三大广告技术公司。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）是最大的公共云服务。</p>
<p>该公司正在全力推动人工智能在三个业务领域的应用，以增加收入和提高效率，尤其是在其云计算业务中。根据首席执行官安迪·贾西的说法，在过去 18 个月中，AWS 发布的机器学习和生成性 AI 功能几乎是其他领先公共云服务的两倍。他还表示，AI 收入正在以三位数的速度增长。</p>
<p>亚马逊在第三季度报告了强劲的财务结果，超出了收入和利润的预期。由于广告和云服务的销售增长特别强劲，收入增长了 11%，达到 1590 亿美元。同时，其营业利润率扩大了超过 3 个百分点，公认会计原则（GAAP）每股收益跃升 52%，达到 1.43 美元。</p>
<p>重要的是，根据 eMarketer 的预测，亚马逊预计将在未来两年内在电子商务和数字广告领域获得市场份额。此外，AWS 在 AI 基础设施和平台服务需求增加的情况下，处于理想的受益位置，因为它的市场份额几乎与 <strong>微软</strong> Azure 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 云服务的总和相当。</p>
<p>考虑到这一点，华尔街预计亚马逊的收益将在明年增长 26%。考虑到业务背后的顺风，这似乎是一个合理的估计，这使得当前 49 倍的市盈率估值显得可以接受。这些数字给出了 1.9 的市盈率增长比（PEG）比率，既不便宜也不算过于昂贵。</p>
<p>尽管有几位亿万富翁出售了亚马逊的股票，但耐心的投资者今天应该对购买少量股份感到自信。我认为大多数华尔街分析师会同意这一说法。在跟踪亚马逊的 70 位分析师中，有 94% 对该股票给予了买入评级。</p>

亚马逊

特斯拉

<p>亿万富翁对冲基金经理正在调整他们的投资，特斯拉和亚马逊股票的交易尤为显著。路易斯·贝肯将其特斯拉持股增加了 19%，同时出售了 76% 的亚马逊股份。肯·格里芬购买了 110 万股特斯拉股票，减少了 94% 的亚马逊持股。丹·洛布在特斯拉建立了新头寸，并出售了 27% 的亚马逊股份。特斯拉的股票因新车型和人工智能雄心而大幅上涨，而亚马逊在电子商务和云计算方面依然表现出色，尽管最近投资者进行了抛售</p>

<p>Four members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; have outperformed the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) year to date. <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 5.34%) and <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 2.94%) are included in that number, with shares advancing 57% and 49%, respectively. But the billionaire hedge fund managers below bought one and sold the other in the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“七巨头” 中的四位成员在年初至今的表现超过了基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)。<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 5.34%) 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 2.94%) 包含在其中，股价分别上涨了 57% 和 49%。但以下的亿万富翁对冲基金经理在第三季度买入了一只，卖出了另一只。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Louis Bacon of Moore Capital Management bought 25,000 shares of Tesla, increasing his position by 19%. Meanwhile, he sold 616,475 shares of Amazon, reducing his stake by 76%. Tesla rose to his 13th-largest holding, while Amazon fell to his 16th-largest.</li>
<li>Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors bought 1.1 million shares of Tesla, increasing his position by nearly 400%. Meanwhile, he sold 7.2 million shares of Amazon, reducing his stake by 94%. Amazon had been his largest holding, excluding options and index funds.</li>
<li>Dan Loeb of Third Point bought 400,000 shares of Tesla, starting a new position. He also sold 1.4 million shares of Amazon, reducing his stake by 27%. Amazon had been his largest holding, but it now ranks second.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>摩尔资本管理的路易斯·贝肯购买了 25,000 股特斯拉，增加了 19% 的持仓。同时，他卖出了 616,475 股亚马逊，减少了 76% 的持仓。特斯拉上升至他的第 13 大持仓，而亚马逊降至第 16 大。</li>
<li>西塔德顾问的肯·格里芬购买了 110 万股特斯拉，几乎增加了 400% 的持仓。同时，他卖出了 720 万股亚马逊，减少了 94% 的持仓。亚马逊曾是他的最大持仓，排除期权和指数基金。</li>
<li>第三点的丹·洛布购买了 40 万股特斯拉，开始了新的持仓。他还卖出了 140 万股亚马逊，减少了 27% 的持仓。亚马逊曾是他的最大持仓，但现在排名第二。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Investors can learn a lot by tracking trades made by accomplished fund managers, but it's important to keep things in perspective. The trades above were made in the third quarter, which ended two months ago. Here's what investors need to know about Tesla and Amazon as we head into 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可以通过跟踪成功的基金经理的交易学到很多东西，但重要的是要保持视角。上述交易发生在两个月前结束的第三季度。随着我们迈向 2025 年，投资者需要了解特斯拉和亚马逊的情况。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla: The stock some billionaires were buying</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉：一些亿万富翁正在购买的股票</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is the leading manufacturer of battery electric vehicles, though its market share fell about 3 points in the past year amid increased competition and a challenging economic environment. During that period, the company reported disappointing financial results in several consecutive quarters as price cuts meant to boost demand cut into margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉是电池电动汽车的领先制造商，尽管在过去一年中，由于竞争加剧和经济环境严峻，其市场份额下降了约 3 个百分点。在此期间，该公司连续几个季度报告了令人失望的财务结果，因为为了刺激需求而进行的降价侵蚀了利润率。</p>
</div><p>Tesla began to regain some momentum in the third quarter. Deliveries increased 6% after falling 5% in the prior quarter. In turn, revenue increased 8% to $25 billion, operating margin expanded 3 percentage points, and non-GAAP earnings increased 9% to $0.72 per diluted share. The company also said it will introduce more affordable vehicle models next year, and CEO Elon Musk believes deliveries could jump 20% to 30% in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在第三季度开始恢复一些势头。交付量在前一季度下降 5% 后增加了 6%。因此，收入增加了 8%，达到 250 亿美元，营业利润率扩大了 3 个百分点，非公认会计原则（non-GAAP）每股收益增加了 9%，达到 0.72 美元。该公司还表示，明年将推出更多经济型车型，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克相信，2025 年的交付量可能会增长 20% 到 30%。</p>
</div><p>However, Tesla's largest opportunity lies in artificial intelligence (AI) software and services. The company plans to release an unsupervised version of its full self-driving (FSD) software in California and Texas next year. It will also launch an autonomous ride-hailing service in those markets. Additionally, Tesla is in talks to license its FSD software to other automakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特斯拉最大的机会在于人工智能（AI）软件和服务。该公司计划明年在加利福尼亚和德克萨斯州发布其无监督版本的全自动驾驶（FSD）软件。它还将在这些市场推出自动驾驶打车服务。此外，特斯拉正在与其他汽车制造商洽谈许可其 FSD 软件。</p>
</div><p>Elon Musk says gross margin could top 70% as autonomous driving technology becomes a larger source of revenue. But he believes the humanoid robot Optimus will be the company's most valuable product. On the third-quarter earnings call, he told analysts, &#34;I feel confident in saying that we have the most advanced humanoid robot by a long shot.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃隆·马斯克表示，随着自动驾驶技术成为更大收入来源，毛利率可能超过 70%。但他认为，人形机器人 Optimus 将是公司最有价值的产品。在第三季度的财报电话会议上，他告诉分析师：“我可以自信地说，我们拥有最先进的人形机器人，远远领先于其他。”</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Wall Street estimates Tesla's adjusted earnings will increase by 28% over the next year, which makes the current valuation of 160 times adjusted earnings look absurd. But that consensus estimate fails to account for revenue increases and margin expansion that autonomous driving technology may bring in a few years, and the market is absolutely pricing in those possibilities, at least to some degree.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，华尔街预计特斯拉的调整后收益将在明年增长 28%，这使得当前 160 倍的调整后收益估值显得荒谬。但这一共识估计未考虑到自动驾驶技术可能在几年内带来的收入增长和利润率扩张，市场绝对在一定程度上定价了这些可能性。</p>
</div><p>That puts investors in a tricky position: If Tesla fails to achieve its goals surrounding FSD and autonomous ride-sharing, the stock will likely crash. But if Tesla does accomplish those goals, it could revolutionize the mobility and transportation industries. That same logic applies to its ambitions in robotics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得投资者处于一个棘手的境地：如果特斯拉未能实现其关于 FSD 和自动驾驶共享的目标，股价可能会崩溃。但如果特斯拉实现了这些目标，它可能会彻底改变出行和交通行业。同样的逻辑也适用于其在机器人领域的雄心。</p>
</div><p>Personally, I think young investors (i.e., those with a long time horizon) who are comfortable with volatility should have some exposure to Tesla. While the stock is undeniably expensive, anyone who meets those criteria should consider buying a tiny position today. But I also think better opportunities will present themselves in the future, so shareholders should be prepared to buy the stock on dips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就个人而言，我认为年轻投资者（即那些有长期投资视野的人）如果能接受波动，应该对特斯拉有一定的投资。虽然该股票无疑价格昂贵，但任何符合这些标准的人都应该考虑今天小幅买入。但我也认为未来会出现更好的机会，因此股东应该准备在股价回调时买入。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon: The stock some billionaires were selling</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊：一些亿万富翁正在出售的股票</h2>
</div><p>Amazon has a strong position in e-commerce, digital advertising, and cloud computing. Specifically, it operates the largest online marketplace in North America and Western Europe as measured by sales. It is the third-largest adtech company worldwide. And Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the largest public cloud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在电子商务、数字广告和云计算方面占据强势地位。具体而言，它在北美和西欧的在线市场中按销售额计算是最大的。它是全球第三大广告技术公司。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）是最大的公共云服务。</p>
</div><p>The company is leaning into artificial intelligence across all three segments to increase revenue and improve efficiency, especially in its cloud computing business. In the last 18 months, AWS released nearly twice as many machine learning and generative AI features as the other leading public clouds combined, according to CEO Andy Jassy. He also said AI revenue was growing at a triple-digit pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司正在全力推动人工智能在三个业务领域的应用，以增加收入和提高效率，尤其是在其云计算业务中。根据首席执行官安迪·贾西的说法，在过去 18 个月中，AWS 发布的机器学习和生成性 AI 功能几乎是其他领先公共云服务的两倍。他还表示，AI 收入正在以三位数的速度增长。</p>
</div><p>Amazon reported solid financial results in the third quarter, beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 11% to $159 billion due to particularly strong sales growth in advertising and cloud services. Meanwhile, its operating margin expanded more than 3 percentage points, and generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) earnings jumped 52% to $1.43 per diluted share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在第三季度报告了强劲的财务结果，超出了收入和利润的预期。由于广告和云服务的销售增长特别强劲，收入增长了 11%，达到 1590 亿美元。同时，其营业利润率扩大了超过 3 个百分点，公认会计原则（GAAP）每股收益跃升 52%，达到 1.43 美元。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, according to eMarketer, Amazon is expected to gain share in e-commerce and digital advertising in the next two years. Additionally, AWS is ideally positioned to benefit as demand for AI infrastructure and platform services increases, given it has nearly as much market share as <strong>Microsoft</strong> Azure and <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google Cloud combined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，根据 eMarketer 的预测，亚马逊预计将在未来两年内在电子商务和数字广告领域获得市场份额。此外，AWS 在 AI 基础设施和平台服务需求增加的情况下，处于理想的受益位置，因为它的市场份额几乎与 <strong>微软</strong> Azure 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 云服务的总和相当。</p>
</div><p>With that in mind, Wall Street expects Amazon's earnings to increase 26% over the next year. That seems like a reasonable estimate, considering the tailwinds behind the business, and it makes the current valuation of 49 times earnings look tolerable. Those numbers give a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.9, which is neither cheap nor outrageously expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一点，华尔街预计亚马逊的收益将在明年增长 26%。考虑到业务背后的顺风，这似乎是一个合理的估计，这使得当前 49 倍的市盈率估值显得可以接受。这些数字给出了 1.9 的市盈率增长比（PEG）比率，既不便宜也不算过于昂贵。</p>
</div><p>Despite several billionaires selling Amazon shares, patient investors should feel confident buying a small position today. I think most Wall Street analysts would agree with that statement. Among the 70 analysts who follow Amazon, 94% have a buy rating on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有几位亿万富翁出售了亚马逊的股票，但耐心的投资者今天应该对购买少量股份感到自信。我认为大多数华尔街分析师会同意这一说法。在跟踪亚马逊的 70 位分析师中，有 94% 对该股票给予了买入评级。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock vs. Amazon Stock: Billionaires Buy One and Sell the Other Ahead of 2025

- 特斯拉和亚马逊在年初至今表现优于标普 500 指数。  
- 投资者需关注特斯拉的电动汽车和人工智能发展，以及亚马逊的电商和云计算增长。  
- 尽管一些亿万富翁出售亚马逊股票，但分析师对其未来持乐观态度。  

特斯拉股票与亚马逊股票：亿万富翁在 2025 年前买入一种股票并卖出另一种