<p><strong>天狼星 XM 控股</strong>(SIRI -0.71%) 的股票在新交易周开始时达到了三个月来的最高点。随后在周二，由于发布了 2025 年的问题指引，股价回吐了大部分近期涨幅。这家卫星广播提供商的股票在消息公布后暴跌 12%。即使考虑到其慷慨的股息分配，天狼星 XM 在 2024 年已失去了超过一半的市值。</p>
<p>尽管今年股价暴跌，并不是所有投资者都对天狼星 XM 失去了信心。沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.58%)(BRK.B -0.43%) 在两个月前增持了其股份。巴菲特和他的团队是否对这家媒体巨头失去了信心尚未可知，因为第三季度的业绩喜忧参半，且 2025 年的指引也不尽如人意。</p>
<p>然而，这家依赖汽车的公司的引擎似乎遭遇的打击，实际上可能是机会在向我们招手。让我们仔细看看。</p>
<h2>以全新的视角面对现实</h2>
<p>新的前景虽然严峻，但考虑到其近期表现并不完全令人震惊。天狼星 XM 预计明年的收入将达到 85 亿美元，比 2024 年预计的 86.75 亿美元下降 2%。更糟糕的是，它在万圣节时下调了 2024 年的收入指引，这已经是过去 45 天内第二次发布令人失望的财务预测。华尔街的共识是，明年收入将温和回升。</p>
<p>放眼望去：去年收入下降了 0.6%。其 2024 年的预测意味着今年将下降 3.1%。它现在正为 2025 年再次准备 2% 的下滑。</p>
<p>连续三年的收入下降并不美好，但你注意到今年和明年收入下降的幅度在减轻吗？天狼星 XM 是一家高盈利的公司，正在利用其资金回购股票，支付丰厚的季度股息，并减少债务负担。时间在它这边。</p>
<p>是的，像这样的可扩展模型，固定开销高而可变费用低，随着收入和用户数量的下降将会受到影响。它现在预计 2025 年的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为 26 亿美元，低于它对今年的 27 亿美元和 2023 年的 28 亿美元的预期。天狼星 XM 预计的 11.5 亿美元自由现金流远低于 2022 年创下的 15.5 亿美元的纪录。</p>
<p>它仍在产生十亿美元级别的自由现金流。天狼星 XM 预计明年将改善其自由现金流转化率。它不会消失。它只需要找到音量旋钮在哪里。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NzgvZ2V0dHl0cmFmZmljLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NzgvZ2V0dHl0cmFmZmljLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>在淡出时介入</h2>
<p>天狼星 XM 并不完美。股票不会在隔音室里一分为二。即使是像巴菲特这样的世代投资者也可能会犯错。然而，考虑到天狼星 XM 股票目前的水平，至少值得一试。</p>
<p>天狼星 XM 目前服务的 3320 万用户对产品普遍感到满意。受众在不断缩小，但其每月流失率与过去的流失率相符。这里的问题在于如何吸引新用户尝试该平台。</p>
<p>新车销售市场平淡，以及流媒体应用在连接汽车中无缝播放的日益普及，都是强劲的逆风。然而，这两种情况都不是永久性的。</p>
<p>随着汽车贷款利率下降，公司要求员工返回办公室，汽车销售可能会回暖。天狼星 XM 在新用户的漏斗中仍然存在缺口，但我非常喜欢它与 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 的新合作，使其卫星广播平台的流媒体版本本月终于可以作为仪表盘应用在其最受欢迎的车型中使用。</p>
<p>天狼星 XM 并没有转变方向。这不是一次扭转局面的机会。这是一个利用市场潜力的机会，意识到这不是一只在中立状态下滚下山坡的失控股票。品牌忠诚度依然存在。</p>
<p>仍有大量资金不断流入底线。即使在分析师本周忙于下调预期之后，这只股票的市盈率仍为 8 倍。</p>
<p>天狼星 XM 承诺其股息，目前股息丰厚，达到 4.3%。它预计明年将实现额外的 2 亿美元年度节省。该公司计划在 2025 年再减少 7 亿美元的债务。</p>
<p>你可以嘲笑它到 2027 年实现 15 亿美元自由现金流的目标，考虑到其近期的下调，但即使是空头也必须相信，这辆车的油箱里还有足够的燃料，能够在三年内到达那个笑点。今年这只股票表现惨淡，但如果这只 2024 年的滞后股在 2025 年成为领头羊，也不要感到惊讶。</p>

天狼星XM广播

<p>Sirius XM Holdings 的股票在 2025 年指引令人失望后下跌了 12%，在 2024 年失去了超过一半的价值。尽管如此，伯克希尔·哈撒韦增加了其持股比例，显示出一些投资者的信心。该公司预计 2025 年收入将下降 2%，而 2024 年则下降了 3.1%。Sirius XM 仍然保持盈利，专注于股票回购和债务减少，同时其 3320 万的订阅用户基础显示出忠诚度。该股票的前瞻市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.3%，尽管面临当前挑战，但仍呈现潜在的投资机会</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI -0.71%) kicked off the new trading week by hitting a three-month high. It would go on to give back most of its recent gains on Tuesday after offering up problematic guidance for 2025. The satellite radio provider's stock would go on to tumble 12% on the news. Sirius XM has now surrendered more than half of its value in 2024, even accounting for its generous dividend distributions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>天狼星 XM 控股</strong>(SIRI -0.71%) 的股票在新交易周开始时达到了三个月来的最高点。随后在周二，由于发布了 2025 年的问题指引，股价回吐了大部分近期涨幅。这家卫星广播提供商的股票在消息公布后暴跌 12%。即使考虑到其慷慨的股息分配，天狼星 XM 在 2024 年已失去了超过一半的市值。</p>
</div><p>Not all investors have lost faith in Sirius XM despite this year's downpour of stock ticks. Warren Bufett's <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.58%)(BRK.B -0.43%) boosted its position two months ago. It remains to be seen if Buffett and his team have lost heart in the media giant since the mixed third quarter and uninspiring guidance initiation for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管今年股价暴跌，并不是所有投资者都对天狼星 XM 失去了信心。沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.58%)(BRK.B -0.43%) 在两个月前增持了其股份。巴菲特和他的团队是否对这家媒体巨头失去了信心尚未可知，因为第三季度的业绩喜忧参半，且 2025 年的指引也不尽如人意。</p>
</div><p>However, what seems like a knock in this auto-dependent company's engine may actually be opportunity at the door. Let's take a closer look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这家依赖汽车的公司的引擎似乎遭遇的打击，实际上可能是机会在向我们招手。让我们仔细看看。</p>
</div><h2>Facing the music with fresh ears</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>以全新的视角面对现实</h2>
</div><p>The new outlook is rough but not entirely shocking, given its recent performance. Sirius XM is targeting $8.5 billion in revenue for all of next year, down 2% from the $8.675 billion it expects to deliver on the top line in 2024. Making matters worse, it hosed down its 2024 revenue guidance on Halloween, making this the second time in the last 45 days that it puts out a disappointing financial forecast. Wall Street's consensus was eyeing a modest return to revenue growth next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新的前景虽然严峻，但考虑到其近期表现并不完全令人震惊。天狼星 XM 预计明年的收入将达到 85 亿美元，比 2024 年预计的 86.75 亿美元下降 2%。更糟糕的是，它在万圣节时下调了 2024 年的收入指引，这已经是过去 45 天内第二次发布令人失望的财务预测。华尔街的共识是，明年收入将温和回升。</p>
</div><p>Zoom out: Revenue declined 0.6% last year. Its 2024 projection translates to a 3.1% slide this year. It's now bracing investors for another 2% step-down come 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>放眼望去：去年收入下降了 0.6%。其 2024 年的预测意味着今年将下降 3.1%。它现在正为 2025 年再次准备 2% 的下滑。</p>
</div><p>Three years of declining revenue is not pretty, but did you catch how the degree of the top-line decline is easing between this year and next? Sirius XM is a highly profitable company that is using its money to buy back shares, pay a generous quarterly dividend, and reduce its debt load. Time is on its side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>连续三年的收入下降并不美好，但你注意到今年和明年收入下降的幅度在减轻吗？天狼星 XM 是一家高盈利的公司，正在利用其资金回购股票，支付丰厚的季度股息，并减少债务负担。时间在它这边。</p>
</div><p>Yes, a scalable model with high fixed overhead and low variable expenses like this will suffer as revenue and subscriber counts decline. The $2.6 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) it's now expecting in 2025 is less than the $2.7 billion it's modeling for this year and the $2.8 billion it served up in 2023. The $1.15 billion in free cash flow that Sirius XM sees is well shy of the record $1.55 billion it generated back in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，像这样的可扩展模型，固定开销高而可变费用低，随着收入和用户数量的下降将会受到影响。它现在预计 2025 年的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为 26 亿美元，低于它对今年的 27 亿美元和 2023 年的 28 亿美元的预期。天狼星 XM 预计的 11.5 亿美元自由现金流远低于 2022 年创下的 15.5 亿美元的纪录。</p>
</div><p>It's still generating 10-figure free cash flow. Sirius XM expects to improve its free cash flow conversion next year. It's not going away. It just needs to discover where the volume knob went.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它仍在产生十亿美元级别的自由现金流。天狼星 XM 预计明年将改善其自由现金流转化率。它不会消失。它只需要找到音量旋钮在哪里。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NzgvZ2V0dHl0cmFmZmljLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800678%2Fgettytraffic.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Step in during the fade-out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在淡出时介入</h2>
</div><p>Sirius XM isn't perfect. Stocks don't break in half in a soundproof chamber. It's quite possible that even a generational investor like Buffett got this wrong. However, with Sirius XM stock at its current level, it's at least worth some tire kicking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 并不完美。股票不会在隔音室里一分为二。即使是像巴菲特这样的世代投资者也可能会犯错。然而，考虑到天狼星 XM 股票目前的水平，至少值得一试。</p>
</div><p>The 33.2 million subscribers that Sirius XM is still serving are generally happy with the product. The audience keeps shrinking, but its monthly churn rate is in line with where the defection rate has been in the past. The problem here is all about getting new subscribers to try the platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 目前服务的 3320 万用户对产品普遍感到满意。受众在不断缩小，但其每月流失率与过去的流失率相符。这里的问题在于如何吸引新用户尝试该平台。</p>
</div><p>A ho-hum market for new auto sales and the growing popularity of streaming apps that can seamlessly play in connected cars are strong headwinds. However, neither scenario is written in permanent ink.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新车销售市场平淡，以及流媒体应用在连接汽车中无缝播放的日益普及，都是强劲的逆风。然而，这两种情况都不是永久性的。</p>
</div><p>Car sales can pick up now that auto loan interest rates are heading lower and companies are requiring employees to return to the office. There are still holes in the Sirius XM funnel of new users, but I really like its new partnership with <strong>Tesla</strong> to make the streaming version of its satellite radio platform finally available as a dashboard app for its most popular vehicles this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着汽车贷款利率下降，公司要求员工返回办公室，汽车销售可能会回暖。天狼星 XM 在新用户的漏斗中仍然存在缺口，但我非常喜欢它与 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 的新合作，使其卫星广播平台的流媒体版本本月终于可以作为仪表盘应用在其最受欢迎的车型中使用。</p>
</div><p>Sirius XM isn't turning the corner. This isn't a turnaround play. This is an opportunity to cash in on the market's potential realization that this isn't a runaway stock tumbling down a hill in neutral. There's brand loyalty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 并没有转变方向。这不是一次扭转局面的机会。这是一个利用市场潜力的机会，意识到这不是一只在中立状态下滚下山坡的失控股票。品牌忠诚度依然存在。</p>
</div><p>There's a lot of money still trickling all the way down to the bottom line. It's a stock trading for 8 times forward earnings, even after analysts were scrambling with their downward revisions this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仍有大量资金不断流入底线。即使在分析师本周忙于下调预期之后，这只股票的市盈率仍为 8 倍。</p>
</div><p>Sirius XM is committed to its dividend that now stands at a bountiful 4.3%. It sees another $200 million in incremental annual savings next year. The company is targeting another $700 million in debt reduction in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天狼星 XM 承诺其股息，目前股息丰厚，达到 4.3%。它预计明年将实现额外的 2 亿美元年度节省。该公司计划在 2025 年再减少 7 亿美元的债务。</p>
</div><p>You can laugh at its goal of delivering $1.5 billion in free cash flow by 2027, given its recent checkdowns, but even bears have to believe that there's enough gas in this tank to make it to that punchline in three years. The stock has been brutal this year, but don't be surprised if this 2024 laggard is a leader in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可以嘲笑它到 2027 年实现 15 亿美元自由现金流的目标，考虑到其近期的下调，但即使是空头也必须相信，这辆车的油箱里还有足够的燃料，能够在三年内到达那个笑点。今年这只股票表现惨淡，但如果这只 2024 年的滞后股在 2025 年成为领头羊，也不要感到惊讶。</p>
</div>

天狼星 XM 广播的股票能否从周二 12% 的跌幅中反弹？