<p>自互联网出现以来大约三十年，华尔街上从未缺乏引发热议的下一个大趋势和创新。一些例子包括基因组解码、3D 打印和元宇宙。然而，没有任何创新的飞跃能够与人工智能（AI）所能带来的潜在市场相媲美。</p>
<p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普华永道的分析师预测，到 2030 年，人工智能将为全球国内生产总值增加 15.7 万亿美元。15.7 万亿美元的市场足以容纳这一领域长长的直接和间接赢家名单。</p>
<p>但在过去两年中，毫无疑问，半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.41%）是人工智能崛起的主要受益者。百万美元的问题是：“公司的股价是否会继续反映这一点？”</p>
<p>如果历史有话要说，那就别指望了。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>人工智能革命使 Nvidia 在过去两年几乎不可阻挡</h2>
<p>自 2023 年初以来，Nvidia 的市值接近增加了 3 万亿美元。虽然其他企业也曾跨越 3 万亿美元的门槛，包括 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>，但没有一家企业能在不到两年的时间内获得 3 万亿美元的市值增长。</p>
<p>Nvidia 惊人反弹的明显催化剂是其硬件，已成为高计算数据中心的 “大脑”。Nvidia 的 H100 图形处理单元（GPU），通常被称为 “Hopper”，在人工智能加速的数据中心中获得了几乎垄断的市场份额。</p>
<p>Nvidia 在创新方面也持续获胜。其后续产品 Blackwell GPU 旨在提高六个领域的计算速度，包括量子计算和生成式人工智能解决方案，并且将比其前身芯片更节能。从计算速度的角度来看，没有其他 GPU 开发者能够接近将 Nvidia 赶下台。</p>
<p>该公司还利用对人工智能芯片的强劲需求及其持续稀缺性来谋取利益。Nvidia 的 Hopper 芯片的价格在 30,000 到 40,000 美元之间，这比 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的 Insight MI300X AI-GPU 的净售价高出一到四倍。Nvidia 能够要求并获得其硬件的溢价价格，帮助提升了其毛利率。</p>
<p>最后，Nvidia 的 CUDA 软件平台作为吸引客户不断回归的诱饵。CUDA 是开发者用于构建大型语言模型并最大化其 Nvidia GPU 计算潜力的工具包。它确保企业客户留在其产品和服务的生态系统内。</p>
<p>但尽管 Nvidia 的情况几乎完美，历史表明它们即将面临极大的挑战。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>历史为 Nvidia 的未来提供了清晰的图景</h2>
<p>人工智能的长期前景看起来光明。人工智能驱动的软件和系统在其指定任务上变得更加高效，以及不断学习新技能的能力，使得这项技术在全球大多数行业中具有实用性。然而，人工智能和 Nvidia 的短期前景并不那么乐观。</p>
<p>如前所述，互联网大约三十年前开始改善企业的增长轨迹。它使企业能够超越其实体店，导致了企业对企业电子商务革命的兴起。</p>
<p>但互联网带来的长期成功并非没有早期的泡沫破裂事件。互联网泡沫摧毁了许多早期企业，并使 <strong>Nasdaq 综合指数</strong> 从高峰到低谷几乎下跌了 78%。</p>
<p>虽然这听起来像是华尔街对下一个大趋势创新的非理性繁荣的夸张例子，但历史告诉我们，过去 30 年的每一项颠覆性技术和趋势最终（关键字！）都经历了早期的泡沫。其他一些引人注目的趋势，无论它们最终是成功还是失败，都导致了泡沫破裂事件，包括：</p>
<ul>
<li>基因组解码</li>
<li>美国住房</li>
<li>中国股票</li>
<li>纳米技术</li>
<li>3D 打印</li>
<li>电动汽车</li>
<li>大麻</li>
<li>区块链技术</li>
<li>元宇宙</li>
</ul>
<p>再说一次，这并不是对上述任何创新、技术或趋势的长期潜力进行评判，也不以任何方式预示人工智能在长期内的成功或失败。它所显示的是，所有下一个大趋势的创新和趋势都需要时间来成熟——<em>毫无例外</em>。</p>
<p>目前，大多数积极投资其人工智能数据中心的企业都是为了获得先发优势。问题在于，这些企业大多数并没有具体的想法如何利用人工智能来产生正回报。这几乎证实了投资者再次高估了新创新被消费者和/或企业采用的速度。</p>
<p>在泡沫破裂事件中，潜在颠覆性创新或趋势的市场领导者的历史高峰到低谷的下降并不美观。3D 打印和大麻的前领导者从各自的历史高点损失了 95% 到 99% 的价值。</p>
<p>拥有成熟运营的公司表现稍好，但仍然受到重创。例如，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 近 98% 的收入来自其市场领先的社交媒体网站上的广告，包括 Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp。当投资者意识到将元宇宙变现需要数年时间并且前期成本相当高时，Meta 的股价在高峰到低谷之间损失了近 80% 的价值，随后反弹至新的历史高点。</p>
<p>与 Meta 类似，英伟达拥有多个成熟的运营部门，包括销售用于 PC 游戏和加密货币挖矿的 GPU，以及提供虚拟化软件。这些部门为英伟达提供了一个底线，应该能防止其像 3D 打印和大麻股票那样遭受重创。</p>
<p>但与此同时，历史告诉我们，当早期泡沫破裂时，市场领导者的价值损失通常在 80% 左右，甚至更多。至少，历史预示着未来几年英伟达的股价将减半，甚至更多。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达在人工智能热潮中获得了显著收益，自 2023 年以来市值增加了近 1 万亿美元，这主要得益于其主导的 GPU 技术。然而，历史趋势表明，该公司可能面临挑战，类似于过去的科技泡沫。尽管人工智能的长期前景依然积极，但英伟达的短期前景可能会面临困难，因为投资于人工智能的公司可能难以实现投资回报，这暗示着潜在的市场修正</p>

<p>Since the advent of the internet roughly three decades ago, there has been no shortage of next-big-thing trends and innovations generating buzz on Wall Street. Some examples include genome decoding, 3D printing, and the metaverse. However, no leap forward in innovation has come close to rivaling the addressable potential for artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自互联网出现以来大约三十年，华尔街上从未缺乏引发热议的下一个大趋势和创新。一些例子包括基因组解码、3D 打印和元宇宙。然而，没有任何创新的飞跃能够与人工智能（AI）所能带来的潜在市场相媲美。</p>
</div><p>In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, the analysts at PwC forecast that AI would add $15.7 trillion to global gross domestic product by 2030. A $15.7 trillion market is large enough to accommodate a long list of direct and indirect winners in this space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普华永道的分析师预测，到 2030 年，人工智能将为全球国内生产总值增加 15.7 万亿美元。15.7 万亿美元的市场足以容纳这一领域长长的直接和间接赢家名单。</p>
</div><p>But over the last two years, there's no question that semiconductor colossus <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.41%) has the prime beneficiary of the rise of AI. The million-dollar question is, &#34;Will the company's share price continue to reflect it?&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在过去两年中，毫无疑问，半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.41%）是人工智能崛起的主要受益者。百万美元的问题是：“公司的股价是否会继续反映这一点？”</p>
</div><p>If history gets its say, don't count on it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果历史有话要说，那就别指望了。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800649%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The AI revolution has made Nvidia virtually unstoppable for two years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能革命使 Nvidia 在过去两年几乎不可阻挡</h2>
</div><p>Since the start of 2023, Nvidia has gained close to $3 trillion in market value. While other businesses have crossed the $3 trillion plateau before, including <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, none have come close to gaining $3 trillion in market value in less than two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年初以来，Nvidia 的市值接近增加了 3 万亿美元。虽然其他企业也曾跨越 3 万亿美元的门槛，包括 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>，但没有一家企业能在不到两年的时间内获得 3 万亿美元的市值增长。</p>
</div><p>The clear catalyst behind Nvidia's stunning rally is its hardware, which has become the &#34;brains&#34; of high-compute data centers. Nvidia's H100 graphics processing unit (GPU), which is commonly referred to as the &#34;Hopper,&#34; has earned a near-monopoly share of the GPUs deployed by businesses in AI-accelerated data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 惊人反弹的明显催化剂是其硬件，已成为高计算数据中心的 “大脑”。Nvidia 的 H100 图形处理单元（GPU），通常被称为 “Hopper”，在人工智能加速的数据中心中获得了几乎垄断的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia continues to win with its innovation, as well. The successor Blackwell GPU is designed to increase computing speed in six areas, including quantum computing and generative AI solutions, and is going to be more energy-efficient than its predecessor chip. No other GPU developers are particularly close to dethroning Nvidia from the standpoint of computing speed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在创新方面也持续获胜。其后续产品 Blackwell GPU 旨在提高六个领域的计算速度，包括量子计算和生成式人工智能解决方案，并且将比其前身芯片更节能。从计算速度的角度来看，没有其他 GPU 开发者能够接近将 Nvidia 赶下台。</p>
</div><p>The company is using overwhelming demand for AI chips and their ongoing scarcity to its advantage, too. Nvidia's Hopper chip has been commanding a price of $30,000 to $40,000, which is anywhere from double to quadruple the price <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has been netting for its Insight MI300X AI-GPUs. Nvidia's ability to ask for and receive a premium price for its hardware has helped to pump up its gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司还利用对人工智能芯片的强劲需求及其持续稀缺性来谋取利益。Nvidia 的 Hopper 芯片的价格在 30,000 到 40,000 美元之间，这比 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的 Insight MI300X AI-GPU 的净售价高出一到四倍。Nvidia 能够要求并获得其硬件的溢价价格，帮助提升了其毛利率。</p>
</div><p>To wrap things up in a nice bow, Nvidia's CUDA software platform has served as the lure that keeps customers coming back for more. CUDA is the toolkit used by developers to build large language models and maximize the computing potential of their Nvidia GPUs. It ensures that enterprise clients stay within its ecosystem of products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，Nvidia 的 CUDA 软件平台作为吸引客户不断回归的诱饵。CUDA 是开发者用于构建大型语言模型并最大化其 Nvidia GPU 计算潜力的工具包。它确保企业客户留在其产品和服务的生态系统内。</p>
</div><p>But while things have been close to perfect for Nvidia, history suggests they're about to get incredibly challenging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管 Nvidia 的情况几乎完美，历史表明它们即将面临极大的挑战。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2NDkvbWFnbmlmaXlpbmctZ2xhc3MtZmluYW5jaWFsLW5ld3NwYXBlci1tYXJrZXQtZGF0YS1zdG9ja3MtZWNvbm9teS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800649%2Fmagnifiying-glass-financial-newspaper-market-data-stocks-economy-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>History offers a crystal-clear picture of what's to come for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史为 Nvidia 的未来提供了清晰的图景</h2>
</div><p>The long-term outlook for artificial intelligence appears bright. The ability for AI-driven software and systems to become more proficient at their assigned tasks, as well as evolve to learn new skills, gives this technology utility in most industries around the globe. However, the near-term outlook for AI and Nvidia isn't as rosy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能的长期前景看起来光明。人工智能驱动的软件和系统在其指定任务上变得更加高效，以及不断学习新技能的能力，使得这项技术在全球大多数行业中具有实用性。然而，人工智能和 Nvidia 的短期前景并不那么乐观。</p>
</div><p>As noted, the internet began changing the corporate growth trajectory for the better roughly three decades ago. It allowed businesses to move beyond their storefronts, leading to the business-to-businesses e-commerce revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，互联网大约三十年前开始改善企业的增长轨迹。它使企业能够超越其实体店，导致了企业对企业电子商务革命的兴起。</p>
</div><p>But the long-term success spurred by the internet didn't come without an early stage bubble-bursting event. The dot-com bubble wiped out a number of early stage businesses and slashed nearly 78% off of the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> on a peak-to-trough basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但互联网带来的长期成功并非没有早期的泡沫破裂事件。互联网泡沫摧毁了许多早期企业，并使 <strong>Nasdaq 综合指数</strong> 从高峰到低谷几乎下跌了 78%。</p>
</div><p>While this might sound like an exaggerated example of irrational exuberance on Wall Street for a next-big-thing innovation, history shows us that every game-changing technology and trend for the last 30 years has, <em>eventually</em> (key word!), worked its way through an early stage bubble. Other examples of buzzy trends that, regardless of whether they succeeded or fizzled out over the long run, resulted in bubble-bursting events include:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这听起来像是华尔街对下一个大趋势创新的非理性繁荣的夸张例子，但历史告诉我们，过去 30 年的每一项颠覆性技术和趋势最终（关键字！）都经历了早期的泡沫。其他一些引人注目的趋势，无论它们最终是成功还是失败，都导致了泡沫破裂事件，包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Genome decoding</li>
<li>U.S. housing</li>
<li>China stocks</li>
<li>Nanotechnology</li>
<li>3D printing</li>
<li>Electric vehicles</li>
<li>Cannabis</li>
<li>Blockchain technology</li>
<li>The metaverse</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>基因组解码</li>
<li>美国住房</li>
<li>中国股票</li>
<li>纳米技术</li>
<li>3D 打印</li>
<li>电动汽车</li>
<li>大麻</li>
<li>区块链技术</li>
<li>元宇宙</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Again, this isn't passing judgment on the long-term potential of any of the above innovations, technologies, or trends, nor does it in any way portend success or failure for artificial intelligence over the long run. What it does show is that all next-big-thing innovations and trends need time to mature -- <em>without exception</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再说一次，这并不是对上述任何创新、技术或趋势的长期潜力进行评判，也不以任何方式预示人工智能在长期内的成功或失败。它所显示的是，所有下一个大趋势的创新和趋势都需要时间来成熟——<em>毫无例外</em>。</p>
</div><p>At the moment, a majority of the businesses investing aggressively in their AI data centers are doing so to gain first-mover advantages. The issue is that most of these businesses have no concrete idea how they're going to utilize AI to generate a positive return on their AI investments. This all but confirms the notion that investors have, once again, overestimated how quickly a new innovation will be adopted by consumers and/or businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，大多数积极投资其人工智能数据中心的企业都是为了获得先发优势。问题在于，这些企业大多数并没有具体的想法如何利用人工智能来产生正回报。这几乎证实了投资者再次高估了新创新被消费者和/或企业采用的速度。</p>
</div><p>The historic peak-to-trough decline for market leaders of a potentially game-changing innovation or trend during a bubble-bursting event isn't pretty. Former leaders in 3D printing and cannabis shed anywhere from 95% to 99% of their value from their respective all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在泡沫破裂事件中，潜在颠覆性创新或趋势的市场领导者的历史高峰到低谷的下降并不美观。3D 打印和大麻的前领导者从各自的历史高点损失了 95% 到 99% 的价值。</p>
</div><p>Companies with established operations fared a bit better, but were still hit hard. For instance, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> generates close to 98% of its revenue from advertising on its market-leading social media sites, including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. When investors came to the realization that monetizing the metaverse would take years and cost quite a bit upfront, shares of Meta lost close to 80% of their value on a peak-to-trough basis before rebounding to fresh record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拥有成熟运营的公司表现稍好，但仍然受到重创。例如，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 近 98% 的收入来自其市场领先的社交媒体网站上的广告，包括 Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp。当投资者意识到将元宇宙变现需要数年时间并且前期成本相当高时，Meta 的股价在高峰到低谷之间损失了近 80% 的价值，随后反弹至新的历史高点。</p>
</div><p>Similar to Meta, Nvidia has a number of established operating segments, including selling GPUs for PC gaming and cryptocurrency mining, as well as providing virtualization software. These segments provide a floor that should keep Nvidia from getting clobbered like 3D printing and cannabis stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 Meta 类似，英伟达拥有多个成熟的运营部门，包括销售用于 PC 游戏和加密货币挖矿的 GPU，以及提供虚拟化软件。这些部门为英伟达提供了一个底线，应该能防止其像 3D 打印和大麻股票那样遭受重创。</p>
</div><p>But at the same time, history tells us that market leaders have lost in the neighborhood of 80% of its value, if not more, when the early stage bubble bursts. At the very least, history foreshadows a halving, if not more, in Nvidia's share price in the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但与此同时，历史告诉我们，当早期泡沫破裂时，市场领导者的价值损失通常在 80% 左右，甚至更多。至少，历史预示着未来几年英伟达的股价将减半，甚至更多。</p>
</div>

Is Nvidia Going to Plunge 50% (or More)? History Offers a Very Clear Answer.

- 人工智能预计到 2030 年将为全球 GDP 增加 7 万亿美元。  
- Nvidia 在 AI 崛起中成为主要受益者，市值增长近 1 万亿美元。  
- 历史表明，市场领导者在泡沫破裂时可能损失 80% 以上的价值。

英伟达会暴跌 50%（或更多）吗？历史给出了一个非常明确的答案