<p>2024 年表现最好的两只科技股是 <strong>Palantir</strong>(PLTR 0.95%) 和 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.41%)。就股票表现而言，Palantir 在 2024 年明显胜出，截至目前，其股价上涨约 325%，而 Nvidia 的涨幅约为 180%。这两者的回报都令人惊叹。</p>
<p>不过，问题在于，哪只股票在 2025 年更有可能超越另一只。让我们看看几个标准来帮助决定。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 已经拥有广泛的护城河</h2>
<p>拥有广泛护城河的公司通常被认为是有吸引力的。简单来说，护城河是公司相对于竞争对手所拥有的优势，使其能够保持竞争优势并维持市场份额。</p>
<p>Nvidia 是人工智能（AI）基础设施领域最大的赢家，因为它通过 CUDA 软件平台为其业务创造了广泛的护城河。该平台的出现是为了让公司扩展其图形处理单元（GPU）的使用，超越最初为加速视频游戏等图形渲染而设计的用途。CUDA 平台使其芯片能够更好地处理其他任务，导致更多开发者学习该程序，最终成为他们学习编程 GPU 的事实标准平台。</p>
<p>这导致了公司今天所看到的广泛护城河，也解释了它在 GPU 领域近 90% 的市场份额。</p>
<p>Palantir 的护城河并不那么明显，主要是因为它所涉及的 AI 软件领域仍在发展中。然而，其 AI 平台（AIP）在商业领域获得了巨大的关注，政府领域的增长也开始重新加速。与此同时，该公司已确立了自己在政府关键任务中的重要地位，其技术被用于打击恐怖主义和在疫情期间追踪 COVID-19 病例等任务。</p>
<p>虽然许多大型科技公司正在争相创建最佳的 AI 模型，但 Palantir 认为 AI 模型将会商品化，真正的差异化将体现在其关注的应用和工作流程层面。它相信其分析和模式识别的专业知识将使其能够严格测试 AI 应用，并迅速将其从概念验证转变为 AI 驱动的软件解决方案。</p>
<p>它认为这就是它的护城河。到目前为止，这似乎正在发挥作用，但还需要更多时间来得出结论。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA3MjMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTU4MjY1MzQ4OC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA3MjMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTU4MjY1MzQ4OC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>两者都在强劲增长</h2>
<p>Nvidia 今年的收入增长势头爆炸性增长，这在其庞大的收入基础上显得尤为惊人。在今年的前九个月，这家芯片制造商的收入增长了惊人的 135%，达到了 912 亿美元。在 2025 财年第三季度，收入飙升 94%，达到了 351 亿美元。同时，其毛利率约为 75%。</p>
<p>该公司继续看到对其芯片的强劲需求，需求持续超过其最新 GPU 架构的供应。预计未来几年，随着主要科技公司继续争相创建更复杂的 AI 模型，增长将保持强劲。这些模型需要成倍增加的计算能力进行训练，在许多情况下，新的模型使用的 GPU 数量是其前版本的 10 倍。</p>
<p>展望未来，分析师预计 Nvidia 在 2025 年的收入将增长超过 50%，达到 1954 亿美元。</p>
<p>Palantir 的增长速度远不及 Nvidia，但其收入增长在今年逐渐加速。该公司在第一季度的收入同比增长 21%，在第二季度加速至 27%，在第三季度增长 30%，达到了 7.26 亿美元。</p>
<p>不过，其部分业务增长速度更快，美国商业收入在上个季度飙升 54%，美国政府收入增长 40%。然而，国际市场的表现却相对滞后。</p>
<p>随着客户强劲增长，包括上个季度增长 39%，以及公司在将客户从原型工作转向全面生产方面的巨大收入机会，Palantir 有潜力继续加速收入增长。然而，这一点目前并未反映在分析师的预估中，预计 2025 年收入增长约为 24%，达到 34.7 亿美元。</p>
<h2>估值显示明显赢家</h2>
<p>从估值的角度来看，Nvidia 显然是赢家，差距很大。根据 2025 年的分析师预估，其前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅略高于 31，市盈率与增长比率（PEG）约为 1。PEG 比率低于 1 通常被视为被低估，而成长股的 PEG 比率往往远高于 1。</p>
<p>与此同时，Palantir 的前瞻市销率（P/S）约为 47.5 倍，基于明年的分析师预估。这对于一家收入增长 30% 的公司来说是一个高估值，且是历史 SaaS（软件即服务）倍数的两倍多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ee0318a5210322d0d2140a1540977fc9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ee0318a5210322d0d2140a1540977fc9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻 1 年）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>结论</h2>
<p>在纸面上，Nvidia 显然是赢家，拥有更强的收入增长、成熟的护城河和更具吸引力的估值，这也是我在 2025 年更倾向于选择它的原因。如果分析师的预测大致符合两只股票的情况，它应该会表现更好。</p>
<p>不过，意外因素可能会决定不同的结果。如果 Palantir 能够证明其 AI 平台是最佳的并被广泛采用，推动收入增长飙升，它可能会再次超越。同时，如果 AI 基础设施支出意外下降，Nvidia 可能会表现不佳。我会坚持选择 Nvidia，但这些都是 2025 年需要关注的情景。</p>

英伟达

PLTR

<p>在 2024 年，Palantir 和 Nvidia 是表现最好的科技股票，Palantir 上涨了 325%，而 Nvidia 上涨了 180%。Nvidia 在人工智能基础设施方面具有强大的竞争优势，得益于其 CUDA 平台，几乎占据了 90% 的 GPU 市场。Palantir 的人工智能平台正在获得关注，特别是在政府应用方面。Nvidia 的收入在 2024 年增长了 135%，预计在 2025 年将超过 50% 的增长。Palantir 的收入增长正在加速，但预计在 2025 年为 24%。估值方面，Nvidia 更具优势，前瞻市盈率超过 31，表明其相较于 Palantir 被低估</p>

<p>Two of the top-performing tech stocks of 2024 were <strong>Palantir</strong>(PLTR 0.95%) and <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.41%). In terms of stock performance, Palantir was the clear winner in 2024, with its stock up about 325% as of this writing, compared to about a 180% gain for Nvidia. Those are both incredible returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年表现最好的两只科技股是 <strong>Palantir</strong>(PLTR 0.95%) 和 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.41%)。就股票表现而言，Palantir 在 2024 年明显胜出，截至目前，其股价上涨约 325%，而 Nvidia 的涨幅约为 180%。这两者的回报都令人惊叹。</p>
</div><p>The question, though, is which stock is most likely to outperform the other in 2025. Let's look at a couple of criteria to help decide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，问题在于，哪只股票在 2025 年更有可能超越另一只。让我们看看几个标准来帮助决定。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia already has a wide moat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 已经拥有广泛的护城河</h2>
</div><p>Companies with wide moats are generally considered desirable. In simplest terms, moat is the advantages a company has over its competitors that allow it to keep its competitive edge and maintain market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拥有广泛护城河的公司通常被认为是有吸引力的。简单来说，护城河是公司相对于竞争对手所拥有的优势，使其能够保持竞争优势并维持市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is the biggest winner in the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure space due to the wide moat it created around its business through its CUDA software platform. The platform came about as a way for the company to expand the use of its graphic processing units (GPUs) beyond speeding up the rendering of graphics in things like video games, for which the chips were initially designed. The CUDA platform allowed its chips to be programmed to better handle other tasks, which led to more developers learning the program to the point where it became the de facto platform on which they were taught to program GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 是人工智能（AI）基础设施领域最大的赢家，因为它通过 CUDA 软件平台为其业务创造了广泛的护城河。该平台的出现是为了让公司扩展其图形处理单元（GPU）的使用，超越最初为加速视频游戏等图形渲染而设计的用途。CUDA 平台使其芯片能够更好地处理其他任务，导致更多开发者学习该程序，最终成为他们学习编程 GPU 的事实标准平台。</p>
</div><p>This led to the wide moat the company sees today and why it has nearly a 90% market share in the GPU space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这导致了公司今天所看到的广泛护城河，也解释了它在 GPU 领域近 90% 的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Palantir's moat isn't quite as clear cut, largely because the AI software space in which it is involved is still developing. However, its AI platform (AIP) has been gaining huge traction in the commercial space, and growth has started to reaccelerate in the government space. The company, meanwhile, established itself as an important part of mission-critical tasks for the government, with its technology being used for such things as fighting terrorism and tracking COVID-19 cases during the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的护城河并不那么明显，主要是因为它所涉及的 AI 软件领域仍在发展中。然而，其 AI 平台（AIP）在商业领域获得了巨大的关注，政府领域的增长也开始重新加速。与此同时，该公司已确立了自己在政府关键任务中的重要地位，其技术被用于打击恐怖主义和在疫情期间追踪 COVID-19 病例等任务。</p>
</div><p>While many large tech companies are battling to create the best AI models, Palantir thinks AI models will become commoditized and that the real differentiation will be within the application and workflow layer on which it is focused. It believes its analytics and pattern recognition expertise will allow it to rigorously test AI applications and quickly move them from proof-of-concept to AI-powered software solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然许多大型科技公司正在争相创建最佳的 AI 模型，但 Palantir 认为 AI 模型将会商品化，真正的差异化将体现在其关注的应用和工作流程层面。它相信其分析和模式识别的专业知识将使其能够严格测试 AI 应用，并迅速将其从概念验证转变为 AI 驱动的软件解决方案。</p>
</div><p>It believes that this is its moat. So far, this appears to be playing out, but more time is needed for it to be conclusive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它认为这就是它的护城河。到目前为止，这似乎正在发挥作用，但还需要更多时间来得出结论。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA3MjMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTU4MjY1MzQ4OC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800723%2Fgettyimages-1582653488.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Both are seeing strong growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>两者都在强劲增长</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia has seen explosive revenue growth this year, which is even more incredible given the large revenue base from which it started. Through the first nine months of the year, the chipmaker was able to grow its revenue by an astounding 135% to $91.2 billion. For its fiscal third quarter of 2025, revenue soared 94% to $35.1 billion. Meanwhile, it carries robust margins of around 75% to boot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 今年的收入增长势头爆炸性增长，这在其庞大的收入基础上显得尤为惊人。在今年的前九个月，这家芯片制造商的收入增长了惊人的 135%，达到了 912 亿美元。在 2025 财年第三季度，收入飙升 94%，达到了 351 亿美元。同时，其毛利率约为 75%。</p>
</div><p>The company is continuing to see insatiable demand for its chips, with demand continuing to outpace supply for its newest GPU architecture. Growth is expected to remain strong in the years ahead as major tech companies continue to race to create more sophisticated AI models. These models need exponentially more computing power to be trained, with newer models, in many cases, using 10 times as many GPUs to be trained on than their prior versions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司继续看到对其芯片的强劲需求，需求持续超过其最新 GPU 架构的供应。预计未来几年，随着主要科技公司继续争相创建更复杂的 AI 模型，增长将保持强劲。这些模型需要成倍增加的计算能力进行训练，在许多情况下，新的模型使用的 GPU 数量是其前版本的 10 倍。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, analysts are expecting Nvidia to grow its revenue by more than 50% in 2025 to $195.4 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，分析师预计 Nvidia 在 2025 年的收入将增长超过 50%，达到 1954 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Palantir has not been growing nearly as briskly as Nvidia, but it has been seeing its revenue growth accelerate throughout the year. The company had 21% revenue growth in the first quarter from a year ago, and accelerated to 27% in Q2 and 30% in Q3 to $726 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的增长速度远不及 Nvidia，但其收入增长在今年逐渐加速。该公司在第一季度的收入同比增长 21%，在第二季度加速至 27%，在第三季度增长 30%，达到了 7.26 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Parts of its business, though, are growing much quicker, with U.S. commercial revenue soaring 54% last quarter and U.S. government revenue climbing 40%. International markets, however, have been lagging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，其部分业务增长速度更快，美国商业收入在上个季度飙升 54%，美国政府收入增长 40%。然而，国际市场的表现却相对滞后。</p>
</div><p>With customers growing strongly, including by 39% last quarter, and the company having a big revenue opportunity moving customers from prototype work to full production, Palantir has the potential to see revenue growth continue to accelerate. However, that is not currently baked into analyst estimates, which are projecting about 24% revenue growth in 2025 to $3.47 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着客户强劲增长，包括上个季度增长 39%，以及公司在将客户从原型工作转向全面生产方面的巨大收入机会，Palantir 有潜力继续加速收入增长。然而，这一点目前并未反映在分析师的预估中，预计 2025 年收入增长约为 24%，达到 34.7 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation shows a clear winner</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值显示明显赢家</h2>
</div><p>From a valuation perspective, Nvidia is the clear winner by a wide margin. It trades at an attractive valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just over 31 based on 2025 analyst estimates and a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of approximately 1. A PEG ratio under 1 is generally viewed as undervalued, while growth stocks will quite often have PEG ratios well above 1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从估值的角度来看，Nvidia 显然是赢家，差距很大。根据 2025 年的分析师预估，其前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅略高于 31，市盈率与增长比率（PEG）约为 1。PEG 比率低于 1 通常被视为被低估，而成长股的 PEG 比率往往远高于 1。</p>
</div><p>Palantir, meanwhile, trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 47.5 times next year's analyst estimates. That's a high valuation for a company with 30% revenue growth and is more than double peak historic SaaS (software-as-a-service) multiples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Palantir 的前瞻市销率（P/S）约为 47.5 倍，基于明年的分析师预估。这对于一家收入增长 30% 的公司来说是一个高估值，且是历史 SaaS（软件即服务）倍数的两倍多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ee0318a5210322d0d2140a1540977fc9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ee0318a5210322d0d2140a1540977fc9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻 1 年）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>The verdict</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia is the clear winner on paper, with stronger revenue growth, a well-established moat, and a much more attractive valuation, which is why I prefer it heading into 2025. If analyst projections are in the general ballpark for both stocks, it should outperform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在纸面上，Nvidia 显然是赢家，拥有更强的收入增长、成熟的护城河和更具吸引力的估值，这也是我在 2025 年更倾向于选择它的原因。如果分析师的预测大致符合两只股票的情况，它应该会表现更好。</p>
</div><p>That said, it is the unexpected that could determine a different outcome. If Palantir can prove its AI platform is the best and becomes widely adopted, sending revenue growth soaring, it could once again outperform. Meanwhile, if AI infrastructure spending unexpectedly falls, Nvidia could underperform. I'm sticking with Nvidia, but these are scenarios to watch out for in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，意外因素可能会决定不同的结果。如果 Palantir 能够证明其 AI 平台是最佳的并被广泛采用，推动收入增长飙升，它可能会再次超越。同时，如果 AI 基础设施支出意外下降，Nvidia 可能会表现不佳。我会坚持选择 Nvidia，但这些都是 2025 年需要关注的情景。</p>
</div>

Palantir vs. Nvidia: Which Stock Will Outperform in 2025?

- 2024 年，Palantir 和 Nvidia 是表现最佳的科技股。  
- Palantir 股价上涨约 325%，Nvidia 上涨约 180%。  
- 分析师预计 2025 年 Nvidia 收入将增长 50%，而 Palantir 预计增长 24%。

Palantir Tech 与英伟达：哪只股票将在 2025 年表现更好？