<p>在过去两年中，围绕人工智能（AI）的对话主要集中在一种核心计算硬件上：图形处理单元（GPU）。这些芯片的并行处理能力使其特别适合生成性 AI 的开发和部署。目前，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 是数据中心 GPU 领域最大的参与者，市场份额估计达到 88%。</p>
<p>然而，精明的投资者明白，GPU 只是更广泛的 AI 方程式中的一个变量。一个开始引起关注的领域是量子计算，崭露头角的 <strong>IonQ</strong>（IONQ 0.54%）希望成为下一个 Nvidia。</p>
<h2>理解量子计算</h2>
<p>传统计算机以二进制位（0 和 1）存储信息和数据。然而，量子计算机使用量子位（qubit）作为内存和处理的基础。量子位可以同时以不同的排列形式存在——这种动态在量子力学中被称为叠加。</p>
<p>我知道上述信息听起来像是来自科幻小说，你可能在想这到底意味着什么。仔细想想，现代计算机几乎随时都在我们身边。但即使在指尖有无尽的信息，仍然有许多问题让人们和企业难以高准确度地回答。</p>
<p>例如，制药公司不断在实验室进行测试，以开发突破性的药物。同时，科学家们不断分析模式，以尝试预测天气预报或气候变化的潜在变化。但归根结底，这两个例子在很大程度上依赖于长期的试错过程。</p>
<p>量子计算机有潜力通过利用量子力学来显著改变这种叙述，而量子力学无法与传统计算系统集成。量子计算的主要目标是解决传统系统无法处理的极其复杂的问题，并在几天甚至几分钟内完成。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA0MjYvY29kaW5nLWVycm9yLWRlc2lnbi11eC1yZXNlYXJjaC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA0MjYvY29kaW5nLWVycm9yLWRlc2lnbi11eC1yZXNlYXJjaC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
<h2>IonQ 如何在量子计算领域崭露头角</h2>
<p>IonQ 专注于一种称为 “捕获离子” 量子计算的技术。每个离子被称为自然量子位，通过捕获它们，可以更容易地操控其量子状态。这种可塑性特征的主要好处可以降低错误率，从而使离子能够在更长时间内保持其量子状态。</p>
<p>理论上，这可以帮助以无缝的方式处理更复杂的算法或大规模计算。在最近的一次纽约证券交易所（NYSE）采访中，IonQ 首席执行官彼得·查普曼表示，量子计算中的一些 “领先应用” 是化学和机器学习。</p>
<p>研究人员和软件开发人员可以通过 Azure、Google Cloud 和 Amazon Web Services 等云平台访问 IonQ 的量子计算服务。这是一种有趣的商业模式，因为 IonQ 实际上承担了为其客户构建量子计算平台所需的巨额资本支出（capex）和硬件成本。这个过程使公司能够更直接地访问量子计算能力，从而帮助它们更快地扩展。</p>
<h2>IonQ 会成为下一个 Nvidia 吗？</h2>
<p>尽管 IonQ 在量子计算领域的雄心令人兴奋，但投资者需要注意一些重要细节。</p>
<p>首先，IonQ 并不是唯一一家探索量子计算的公司。其他参与者包括 <strong>IBM</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>（谷歌）、<strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong> 等公司，这些公司都在量子计算机制上进行了大量投资。考虑到 IonQ 尚未盈利，该公司在长期内与大型科技公司竞争将会很困难。</p>
<p>这引出了我的第二个观点。在 2024 年迄今为止，IonQ 的股票飙升超过 150%——超越了 “七大奇迹” 中的每一个成员，除了 Nvidia。</p>
<p>以 185 的市销率（P/S）来看，IonQ 的股票显然被高估，其 70 亿美元的市值更多地根植于围绕 AI 和量子计算的叙述，而非实际的商业基本面。</p>
<p>在我看来，IonQ 的股票已经经历了类似 Nvidia 的上涨，股票预计会回调。在我看来，IonQ 在能够与 Nvidia 在 AI 领域的影响力和地位相提并论之前，还有很长的路要走。</p>

IONQ

英伟达

<p>IonQ 正在将自己定位为量子计算领域的潜在领导者，类似于英伟达在 GPU 领域的主导地位。尽管 IonQ 的捕获离子技术在处理复杂算法方面具有优势，但它面临着来自 IBM 和 Google 等主要竞争对手的激烈竞争。尽管在 2024 年股价飙升了 150%，IonQ 仍然处于亏损状态，其高市值可能更多地是由炒作驱动，而非基本面。分析师建议 IonQ 的股票被高估，并可能在努力追赶英伟达在 AI 领域的成功时经历调整</p>

<p>Over the last two years, much of the dialogue surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has been focused on one core type of computing hardware: graphics processing units (GPUs). The parallel processing capacities of these chips make them particularly well suited to the development and deployment of generative AI. For now, <strong>Nvidia</strong> is the biggest player in the data center GPU space, with an estimated 88% market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两年中，围绕人工智能（AI）的对话主要集中在一种核心计算硬件上：图形处理单元（GPU）。这些芯片的并行处理能力使其特别适合生成性 AI 的开发和部署。目前，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 是数据中心 GPU 领域最大的参与者，市场份额估计达到 88%。</p>
</div><p>Savvy investors understand that GPUs are only one variable in the broader AI equation, though. One area that is beginning to attract some attention is quantum computing, where rising star <strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ 0.54%) has some designs on becoming the next Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，精明的投资者明白，GPU 只是更广泛的 AI 方程式中的一个变量。一个开始引起关注的领域是量子计算，崭露头角的 <strong>IonQ</strong>（IONQ 0.54%）希望成为下一个 Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>Understanding quantum computing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>理解量子计算</h2>
</div><p>Traditional computers store information and data in binary bits (0s and 1s). Quantum computers, however, use quantum bits (qubits) as the foundation for memory and processing. Qubits can be take the form of different arrangements simultaneously -- this dynamic is known as superposition in quantum mechanics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传统计算机以二进制位（0 和 1）存储信息和数据。然而，量子计算机使用量子位（qubit）作为内存和处理的基础。量子位可以同时以不同的排列形式存在——这种动态在量子力学中被称为叠加。</p>
</div><p>I know the information above sounds like it came out of a science fiction novel, and you're probably wondering what it even really means. If you think about it, modern computers are pretty much around us at all times. But even with endless information at the tip of your fingers, there are still questions that people and businesses struggle to answer with high accuracy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我知道上述信息听起来像是来自科幻小说，你可能在想这到底意味着什么。仔细想想，现代计算机几乎随时都在我们身边。但即使在指尖有无尽的信息，仍然有许多问题让人们和企业难以高准确度地回答。</p>
</div><p>For example, pharmaceutical companies constantly perform tests in laboratories to develop groundbreaking drugs. Meanwhile, scientists constantly analyze patterns to try to predict weather forecasts or potential changes in climate. But at the end of the day, both of these examples largely rely on prolonged trial and error.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，制药公司不断在实验室进行测试，以开发突破性的药物。同时，科学家们不断分析模式，以尝试预测天气预报或气候变化的潜在变化。但归根结底，这两个例子在很大程度上依赖于长期的试错过程。</p>
</div><p>Quantum computers have the potential to change that narrative dramatically by leveraging quantum mechanics, which cannot be integrated with traditional computing systems. The primary goal of quantum computing is to solve monumentally complex problems that legacy systems are incapable of, and do so in a matter or days or even minutes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算机有潜力通过利用量子力学来显著改变这种叙述，而量子力学无法与传统计算系统集成。量子计算的主要目标是解决传统系统无法处理的极其复杂的问题，并在几天甚至几分钟内完成。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA0MjYvY29kaW5nLWVycm9yLWRlc2lnbi11eC1yZXNlYXJjaC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800426%2Fcoding-error-design-ux-research.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image Source: Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
</div><h2>How IonQ is making a splash in quantum computing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>IonQ 如何在量子计算领域崭露头角</h2>
</div><p>IonQ specializes in a technique called &#34;trapped ion&#34; quantum computing. Each ion is known as a natural qubit, and by trapping them, their quantum states can be manipulated more easily. The main benefits of this malleability feature can lead to reduced error rates, thereby allowing ions to maintain their quantum state for longer periods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IonQ 专注于一种称为 “捕获离子” 量子计算的技术。每个离子被称为自然量子位，通过捕获它们，可以更容易地操控其量子状态。这种可塑性特征的主要好处可以降低错误率，从而使离子能够在更长时间内保持其量子状态。</p>
</div><p>In theory, this can help with processing more sophisticated algorithms or complex computing at scale in a seamless fashion. During a recent interview at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), IonQ CEO Peter Chapman said that some of the &#34;leading applications&#34; in quantum computing are chemistry and machine learning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理论上，这可以帮助以无缝的方式处理更复杂的算法或大规模计算。在最近的一次纽约证券交易所（NYSE）采访中，IonQ 首席执行官彼得·查普曼表示，量子计算中的一些 “领先应用” 是化学和机器学习。</p>
</div><p>Researchers and software developers can access IonQ's quantum computing service through cloud platforms such as Azure, Google Cloud, and Amazon Web Services. This is an interesting business model because, essentially, IonQ is covering the immense costs of capital expenditures (capex) and hardware needed to build a quantum computing platform for its customers. This process allows companies to access quantum computing capabilities more directly, thereby helping them scale at a faster rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>研究人员和软件开发人员可以通过 Azure、Google Cloud 和 Amazon Web Services 等云平台访问 IonQ 的量子计算服务。这是一种有趣的商业模式，因为 IonQ 实际上承担了为其客户构建量子计算平台所需的巨额资本支出（capex）和硬件成本。这个过程使公司能够更直接地访问量子计算能力，从而帮助它们更快地扩展。</p>
</div><h2>Will IonQ become the next Nvidia?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>IonQ 会成为下一个 Nvidia 吗？</h2>
</div><p>While IonQ's ambitions in the quantum computing world are exciting, there are some important details that investors need to be aware of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 IonQ 在量子计算领域的雄心令人兴奋，但投资者需要注意一些重要细节。</p>
</div><p>First, IonQ is far from the only company exploring quantum computing. Other players including <strong>IBM</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong> (Google), <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong> are just a few companies investing heavily into quantum computing mechanics. Considering IonQ is not yet profitable, it's going to be hard for the company to compete with the likes of mega cap tech in the long-run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，IonQ 并不是唯一一家探索量子计算的公司。其他参与者包括 <strong>IBM</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>（谷歌）、<strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong> 等公司，这些公司都在量子计算机制上进行了大量投资。考虑到 IonQ 尚未盈利，该公司在长期内与大型科技公司竞争将会很困难。</p>
</div><p>This leads to my second point. So far in 2024, shares of IonQ have skyrocketed by over 150% -- outpacing every member of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; with the exception of Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这引出了我的第二个观点。在 2024 年迄今为止，IonQ 的股票飙升超过 150%——超越了 “七大奇迹” 中的每一个成员，除了 Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>At a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 185, it's pretty clear that IonQ stock is overbought and its $7 billion market cap is rooted more in the narrative surrounding AI and quantum computing as opposed to actual business fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 185 的市销率（P/S）来看，IonQ 的股票显然被高估，其 70 亿美元的市值更多地根植于围绕 AI 和量子计算的叙述，而非实际的商业基本面。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, IonQ stock has already experienced an Nvidia-like run, and shares are due for a pullback. To me, IonQ has a long road ahead before it can be even remotely compared to Nvidia's influence and status within the AI arena.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，IonQ 的股票已经经历了类似 Nvidia 的上涨，股票预计会回调。在我看来，IonQ 在能够与 Nvidia 在 AI 领域的影响力和地位相提并论之前，还有很长的路要走。</p>
</div>

Could IonQ Be the Next Nvidia?

- 文章讨论了人工智能领域中 GPU 和量子计算的现状。  
- IonQ 专注于 “捕获离子” 量子计算，提供云服务以降低客户成本。  
- 尽管 IonQ 股价大幅上涨，但其盈利能力和市场竞争力仍需关注。  

IonQ 会成为下一个 NVIDIA 吗？