<p>美国联邦储备委员会有两个主要目标：维持消费者物价指数（CPI）约 2% 的年化通胀率，以及保持经济充分就业（尽管没有具体的失业率目标）。</p>
<p>为了抑制因疫情相关刺激措施和经济干扰导致的通胀飙升，美联储在 2022 年 3 月至 2023 年 8 月之间将联邦基金利率（隔夜利率）提高至 20 年来的最高点 5.33%。</p>
<p>但随着 CPI 终于回落，美联储在今年 9 月和 11 月降息。中央银行将在 12 月 18 日发布 2024 年的最终利率决定。以下是华尔街的预测。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA3NjYvYS1waG90by1vZi1hLXBvZGl1bS13aXRoLXRoZS1mZWRlcmFsLXJlc2VydmUtZW1ibGVtLW9uLXRoZS1mcm9udC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA3NjYvYS1waG90by1vZi1hLXBvZGl1bS13aXRoLXRoZS1mZWRlcmFsLXJlc2VydmUtZW1ibGVtLW9uLXRoZS1mcm9udC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>这是美联储在 9 月和 11 月降息的原因</h2>
<p>美国政府在 2020 年和 2021 年向经济注入了数万亿美元，同时，美联储将联邦基金利率削减至接近 0% 的历史低点。这些举措旨在通过鼓励消费者支出以支持经济，从而抵消疫情的影响。</p>
<p>货币供应的快速增加加上超宽松的货币政策可能会导致严重的通胀。然而，供应链中断也导致价格飙升，因为全球工厂关闭以阻止 COVID-19 的传播。这一系列因素使得 CPI 在 2022 年飙升至 40 年来的最高点 8.0%。</p>
<p>正如我之前提到的，美联储采取了一系列激进的加息措施。幸运的是，这一政策奏效，因为最近的 CPI 数据（2024 年 11 月）年化率为 2.7%，非常接近美联储的目标。</p>
<p>此外，失业率在今年逐渐上升。目前失业率为 4.2%，而 2024 年初为 3.7%，这可能是就业市场正在放缓的迹象。</p>
<p>美联储不想因利率过高而导致经济衰退，这就是为什么它在 9 月将联邦基金利率下调 50 个基点，随后在 11 月再下调 25 个基点。</p>
<h2>根据华尔街的预测，12 月几乎可以确定会降息</h2>
<p>几家华尔街银行预测美联储下周将再降息 25 个基点。<strong>摩根士丹利</strong>、<strong>高盛</strong>、<strong>富国银行</strong> 和 <strong>花旗集团</strong> 等银行巨头均在此列。</p>
<p><strong>CME 集团</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具也表明 12 月降息的概率为 98%。它使用来自联邦基金期货市场的数据来计算这一概率——换句话说，它很好地反映了交易员和投资者对美联储下次会议的预期。</p>
<p>然而，2025 年进一步降息的预期大幅下降。FedWatch 工具预测明年将有两次 25 个基点的降息，这远低于美联储在 9 月发布的经济预测摘要中预测的五次降息。</p>
<p>CPI 仍未达到 2%，而国内生产总值（GDP）仍以年化 2.8% 的速度增长，远高于过去 10 年的平均水平 2.3%。这可能是交易员降低降息预期的两个原因。</p>
<p>美联储每季度发布一次新的经济预测摘要，因此投资者将在下周的 12 月会议后获得一组新的数据。观察中央银行是否仍然认为 2025 年需要五次降息，或者是否像市场一样下调了预测，将是非常重要的。</p>
<h2>从长远来看，降息通常对股票有利</h2>
<p>利率下降可以通过几种方式使股票市场投资者受益。它们允许公司借入更多资金以推动增长，同时降低债务服务成本。这两个因素都可以提升公司的盈利。此外，较低的利率将降低现金和政府国债等无风险资产的收益率，从而推动更多投资者进入股票市场，导致价格上涨。</p>
<p>但投资者不希望看到美联储因经济疲软而大幅降息。例如，如果就业市场进一步恶化，这可能导致消费者支出下降，从而影响企业盈利。由于盈利推动股票价格，这可能导致基准指数如 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.00%) 在美联储降息时仍然下跌。</p>
<p>目前美国没有明显的经济衰退迹象，但自 1960 年代以来，几乎每个加息周期后都伴随着经济衰退。高利率时期可能对经济产生滞后影响，因此我们可能尚未看到美联储在 2022 年和 2023 年加息周期的所有负面影响。</p>
<p>以下是联邦基金利率的图表，衰退期以灰色突出显示。它清楚地说明了高利率时期如何经常在经济衰退之前出现：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9e5f0c8b1c1d86561ecad7759e076d5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9e5f0c8b1c1d86561ecad7759e076d5.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>也就是说，如果美国确实经历了一场导致股市下跌的经济衰退，那几乎肯定会是一个买入机会。历史表明，标准普尔 500 指数在长期内总是会达到新高，因此投资者不应因短期疲软而退缩。</p>

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<p>美国联邦储备委员会预计将在 12 月再次降息，此前在 9 月和 11 月已经进行了降息。华尔街预测将减少 25 个基点，根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 工具，降息的概率为 98%。美联储的举措旨在管理通货膨胀，目前通货膨胀率已降至 2.7%，而失业率上升至 4.2%。尽管降息通常有利于股市，但人们仍对可能影响消费者支出和企业盈利的经济衰退表示担忧</p>

<p>The U.S. Federal Reserve has two main objectives: Maintaining an annualized inflation rate of around 2%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and keeping the economy operating at full employment (although it doesn't have a specific target for the unemployment rate).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国联邦储备委员会有两个主要目标：维持消费者物价指数（CPI）约 2% 的年化通胀率，以及保持经济充分就业（尽管没有具体的失业率目标）。</p>
</div><p>The Fed hiked the federal funds rate (overnight interest rates) to a two-decade high of 5.33% between Mar. 2022 and Aug. 2023, in order to tame an inflation surge that resulted from pandemic-related stimulus measures and disruptions to the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了抑制因疫情相关刺激措施和经济干扰导致的通胀飙升，美联储在 2022 年 3 月至 2023 年 8 月之间将联邦基金利率（隔夜利率）提高至 20 年来的最高点 5.33%。</p>
</div><p>But with the CPI finally trending back down, the Fed cut rates in September and November this year. The central bank will issue its final rate decision for 2024 on Dec. 18. Here's what Wall Street predicts will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着 CPI 终于回落，美联储在今年 9 月和 11 月降息。中央银行将在 12 月 18 日发布 2024 年的最终利率决定。以下是华尔街的预测。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA3NjYvYS1waG90by1vZi1hLXBvZGl1bS13aXRoLXRoZS1mZWRlcmFsLXJlc2VydmUtZW1ibGVtLW9uLXRoZS1mcm9udC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800766%2Fa-photo-of-a-podium-with-the-federal-reserve-emblem-on-the-front.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Here's why the Fed cut rates in September and November</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这是美联储在 9 月和 11 月降息的原因</h2>
</div><p>The U.S. government injected trillions of dollars into the economy during 2020 and 2021, while at the same time, the Fed slashed the federal funds rate to a historic low of near 0%. The moves were designed to counteract the effects of the pandemic by encouraging consumer spending to support the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国政府在 2020 年和 2021 年向经济注入了数万亿美元，同时，美联储将联邦基金利率削减至接近 0% 的历史低点。这些举措旨在通过鼓励消费者支出以支持经济，从而抵消疫情的影响。</p>
</div><p>A rapid increase in money supply combined with ultra-loose monetary policy can be very inflationary. However, supply chain disruptions also sent prices soaring because factories closed around the world in order to stop the spread of COVID-19. That cocktail of forces sent the CPI rocketing to a 40-year high of 8.0% in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币供应的快速增加加上超宽松的货币政策可能会导致严重的通胀。然而，供应链中断也导致价格飙升，因为全球工厂关闭以阻止 COVID-19 的传播。这一系列因素使得 CPI 在 2022 年飙升至 40 年来的最高点 8.0%。</p>
</div><p>As I mentioned earlier, the Fed reacted with a series of aggressive rate hikes. Thankfully, the policy worked because the most recent CPI reading (Nov. 2024) came in at an annualized rate of 2.7%, which is very close to the Fed's target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我之前提到的，美联储采取了一系列激进的加息措施。幸运的是，这一政策奏效，因为最近的 CPI 数据（2024 年 11 月）年化率为 2.7%，非常接近美联储的目标。</p>
</div><p>Plus, the unemployment rate gradually ticked higher throughout this year. It currently sits at 4.2% after starting 2024 at 3.7%, which could be a sign the jobs market is softening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，失业率在今年逐渐上升。目前失业率为 4.2%，而 2024 年初为 3.7%，这可能是就业市场正在放缓的迹象。</p>
</div><p>The Fed doesn't want to cause a recession by leaving rates too high for too long, which is why it cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in September, followed by another 25 basis points in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储不想因利率过高而导致经济衰退，这就是为什么它在 9 月将联邦基金利率下调 50 个基点，随后在 11 月再下调 25 个基点。</p>
</div><h2>A cut is almost certain in December, according to Wall Street</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>根据华尔街的预测，12 月几乎可以确定会降息</h2>
</div><p>Several Wall Street banks are forecasting another 25-basis-point cut from the Fed next week. <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong>, <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong>, <strong>Wells Fargo</strong>, and <strong>Citigroup</strong> are just some of the banking giants on that list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几家华尔街银行预测美联储下周将再降息 25 个基点。<strong>摩根士丹利</strong>、<strong>高盛</strong>、<strong>富国银行</strong> 和 <strong>花旗集团</strong> 等银行巨头均在此列。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>CME Group</strong>'s FedWatch tool also suggests there is a 98% chance of a cut in December. It uses data from the Fed Funds Futures market to calculate that probability -- in other words, it's a good reflection of what traders and investors think the Fed will do at its next meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>CME 集团</strong> 的 FedWatch 工具也表明 12 月降息的概率为 98%。它使用来自联邦基金期货市场的数据来计算这一概率——换句话说，它很好地反映了交易员和投资者对美联储下次会议的预期。</p>
</div><p>However, expectations for further cuts in 2025 have fallen dramatically. The FedWatch tool predicts two 25 basis-point cuts next year, which is significantly less than the <em>five</em> cuts forecast by the Fed itself when it issued its summary of economic projections in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，2025 年进一步降息的预期大幅下降。FedWatch 工具预测明年将有两次 25 个基点的降息，这远低于美联储在 9 月发布的经济预测摘要中预测的五次降息。</p>
</div><p>The CPI still hasn't hit 2%, and gross domestic product (GDP) is still growing at an annualized rate of 2.8%, which is way above its average of 2.3% over the last 10 years. Those might be two reasons why traders have trimmed their expectations for rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPI 仍未达到 2%，而国内生产总值（GDP）仍以年化 2.8% 的速度增长，远高于过去 10 年的平均水平 2.3%。这可能是交易员降低降息预期的两个原因。</p>
</div><p>The Fed issues a new summary of economic projections every quarter, so investors will have a fresh set of data to digest following the December meeting next week. It will be important to see whether the central bank still believes five cuts will be necessary in 2025 or if it revised its forecast down the same way the market did.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储每季度发布一次新的经济预测摘要，因此投资者将在下周的 12 月会议后获得一组新的数据。观察中央银行是否仍然认为 2025 年需要五次降息，或者是否像市场一样下调了预测，将是非常重要的。</p>
</div><h2>Rate cuts are typically good for stocks in the long run</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从长远来看，降息通常对股票有利</h2>
</div><p>Falling interest rates can benefit stock market investors in a few ways. They allow companies to borrow more money to fuel their growth while reducing their debt servicing costs. Both factors can boost their earnings. Plus, lower rates will reduce the yield on risk-free assets like cash and government Treasury bonds, which pushes more investors into stocks, thus leading to higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率下降可以通过几种方式使股票市场投资者受益。它们允许公司借入更多资金以推动增长，同时降低债务服务成本。这两个因素都可以提升公司的盈利。此外，较低的利率将降低现金和政府国债等无风险资产的收益率，从而推动更多投资者进入股票市场，导致价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>But investors don't want to see the Fed slashing interest rates because of a weak economy. If the jobs market deteriorates further, for example, that could lead to a drop in consumer spending, which would dent corporate earnings. Since earnings drive stock prices, that might result in a drop in benchmark indexes like the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.00%) even while the Fed is cutting rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者不希望看到美联储因经济疲软而大幅降息。例如，如果就业市场进一步恶化，这可能导致消费者支出下降，从而影响企业盈利。由于盈利推动股票价格，这可能导致基准指数如 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.00%) 在美联储降息时仍然下跌。</p>
</div><p>There is no concrete sign of an economic downturn in the U.S. right now, but since the 1960s, almost every rate hiking cycle has been followed by a recession. Periods of high interest rates can have a lagging effect on the economy, so it's possible we haven't seen all of the negative impacts of the Fed's rate-hiking cycle from 2022 and 2023 just yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前美国没有明显的经济衰退迹象，但自 1960 年代以来，几乎每个加息周期后都伴随着经济衰退。高利率时期可能对经济产生滞后影响，因此我们可能尚未看到美联储在 2022 年和 2023 年加息周期的所有负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Below is a chart of the federal funds rate with recessionary periods highlighted in grey. It clearly illustrates how often periods of high rates precede an economic downturn:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是联邦基金利率的图表，衰退期以灰色突出显示。它清楚地说明了高利率时期如何经常在经济衰退之前出现：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9e5f0c8b1c1d86561ecad7759e076d5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9e5f0c8b1c1d86561ecad7759e076d5.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>That said, if the U.S. does experience a recession that leads to a drop in the stock market, that would almost certainly be a buying opportunity. History shows the S&amp;P 500 has always gone on to reach highs over the long term, so investors shouldn't be deterred by periods of short-term weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，如果美国确实经历了一场导致股市下跌的经济衰退，那几乎肯定会是一个买入机会。历史表明，标准普尔 500 指数在长期内总是会达到新高，因此投资者不应因短期疲软而退缩。</p>
</div>

Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates Next Week? Here's What Wall Street Thinks.

- 美联储的主要目标是维持约 2% 的通胀率和充分就业。  
- 由于通胀上升，美联储在 2022 年至 2023 年间将联邦基金利率提高至 5.33%。  
- 预计美联储将在 12 月再次降息，华尔街对此持乐观态度。  

美联储下周会降息吗？以下是华尔街的观点