<p>以 15% 的前瞻收益率来看，<strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 0.42%）常常引起以收入为导向的投资者的关注，他们希望通过分红来补充收入，这并不令人惊讶。更好的是，这家房地产投资信托基金（REIT）每月支付一次股息，为投资者提供稳定的月度收入。自 2020 年 4 月以来，它一直支付相同的每月 0.12 美元的股息。</p>
<p>尽管如此，这只股票在过去几年中表现不佳，过去五年价格下跌约 44%。考虑到股票的股息，其在此期间的总回报约为 3%。尽管股息一直在支付，但自 2020 年 4 月以来并没有变化。虽然仍然实现了正回报，但考虑到这一时期市场的强劲表现，这并不是一个理想的回报。</p>
<p>尽管如此，未来 REIT 应该会迎来更好的日子。</p>
<h2>什么是抵押贷款 REIT，它们为何会面临困境？</h2>
<p>在考虑投资 AGNC 之前，投资者首先需要了解该公司的具体业务。诚然，这有点复杂，但让我们尽量简单明了地解释一下，同时说明为什么抵押贷款 REIT 在过去几年中面临困境。</p>
<p>AGNC 是一家抵押贷款 REIT，投资于由政府或政府赞助机构（如 <strong>房利美</strong>、<strong>房地美</strong> 和 <strong>吉尼梅</strong>）支持的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。简单来说，它拥有一组抵押贷款。由于这些抵押贷款基本上是由政府支持的，因此没有违约风险。</p>
<p>AGNC 通过使用短期融资（通常以回购协议的形式）来赚钱，然后购买长期 MBS。它通过融资成本与 MBS 投资产生的收入之间的利差来获利。这部分收入随后用于支付股息。</p>
<p>短期融资利率可能会波动，因此抵押贷款 REIT 也会对这些利率进行对冲，以更好地匹配其投资组合中 MBS 的期限。这是通过广泛使用的对冲策略实现的，例如使用利率互换。</p>
<p>在最近几年，对冲对抵押贷款 REIT 尤其重要，因为出现了历史上持续时间较长的倒挂收益率曲线，直到今年早些时候才刚刚恢复正常。倒挂收益率曲线是指短期利率高于长期利率。</p>
<p>尽管 AGNC 的融资费用在过去一年中有所上升，但它仍然能够保持健康的净利差，即其融资成本与 MBS 投资组合收益之间的差额。上个季度，对冲使其融资成本降低了 2.9%。如果没有对冲，其投资组合的收益将低于其融资成本。</p>
<p>尽管抵押贷款在今年面临净利差收窄的压力，但它们在过去几年中面临的最大问题是 MBS 价值的下降。随着利率上升，MBS 与国债之间的利差扩大，MBS 的当前账面价值下降。</p>
<p>原因很简单。如果你投资于固定收益证券，如国债或 MBS，收益率为 4%，而当前类似新发行证券的利率为 7%，你将无法以面值出售你拥有的证券，然后再购买收益率更高的新证券。相反，你必须以折扣价出售你拥有的证券，以使其收益率与新发行的证券相匹配。</p>
<p>因此，随着新 MBS 开始具有更高的票息，旧发行的低票息 MBS 的价值下降。这在抵押贷款 REIT 的有形账面价值（TBV）中体现出来，代表其投资组合的当前价值。在 2021 年底到 2023 年底之间，AGNC 的每股 TBV 下降了 45%，从每股 15.75 美元降至每股 8.70 美元。在上个季度末（2024 年第三季度），其 TBV 为 8.82 美元，因此在 2024 年已经稳定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2ODEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2ODEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么 AGNC 在未来表现会更好</h2>
<p>AGNC 股价的下跌与其 TBV 的下降直接相关，这一下降是由于利率上升和 MBS 与国债之间的利差扩大所导致的。目前，有良好的迹象表明利率将下降，而利差至少将保持稳定。</p>
<p>在利率方面，美联储今年已经两次降息，9 月份降息 50 个基点，10 月份再降 25 个基点。同时，美联储官员普遍预计未来两年利率将继续下降。</p>
<p>与此同时，抵押贷款利率与国债之间的利差目前约为 2.5%，这是历史高位。利差的扩大主要是因为美联储在疫情期间的量化宽松结束后停止购买 MBS，并让其 MBS 到期后用国债替代。同时，许多银行和其他金融机构也减少了对 MBS 的购买，但有迹象表明，随着利率下调、收益率曲线不再倒挂以及市场波动性降低，这些机构可能会重新回归。随着利率的下降，这些机构应该开始关注收益率更高的工具，如 MBS。</p>
<p>如果利差收窄，AGNC 将成为主要受益者，因为这将提升其 TBV，但即使它们保持在当前水平（其管理层对此持乐观态度），对于 REIT 来说，这也应该是一个非常好的投资环境，相较于过去几年。同时，随着美联储降低短期利率，未来几年其融资成本也应该开始降低。长期高利率与短期低利率为抵押贷款 REIT 创造了良好的投资环境。</p>
<p>因此，考虑到 15% 的收益率和更好的投资环境，AGNC 看起来是一个值得购买的稳健选择，其股价低于 10 美元。它应该能够提供稳定的股息收入，并有潜力实现适度的股价升值。</p>

美国资本代理公司

<p>AGNC Investment 是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托，提供 15% 的前瞻性收益率，并每月支付股息，但其股票在过去五年中下跌了 44%。尽管自 2020 年 4 月以来维持了稳定的股息，但总回报仍然温和。该公司投资于政府支持的抵押贷款证券，并因利率上升和净利差缩小而面临挑战。然而，随着近期美联储降息和对更低利率的预期，AGNC 可能会在未来看到业绩改善</p>

<p>With a forward yield of 15%, it's no surprise that <strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC 0.42%) often finds itself on the radar of income-oriented investors who are looking to supplement their income with dividends. Even better, the real estate investment trust (REIT) pays out a monthly dividend, giving investors a steady monthly payment each month. It has paid out the same $0.12 monthly dividend since April 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 15% 的前瞻收益率来看，<strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 0.42%）常常引起以收入为导向的投资者的关注，他们希望通过分红来补充收入，这并不令人惊讶。更好的是，这家房地产投资信托基金（REIT）每月支付一次股息，为投资者提供稳定的月度收入。自 2020 年 4 月以来，它一直支付相同的每月 0.12 美元的股息。</p>
</div><p>That said, the stock has struggled the past several years, with its price down about 44% over the past five years. When taking into account the stock's dividends, its total return over that period is about 3%. And while the dividend has been paid, it hasn't changed since April 2020. While it still managed a positive return, that's not a great return given the strength of the market over this period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这只股票在过去几年中表现不佳，过去五年价格下跌约 44%。考虑到股票的股息，其在此期间的总回报约为 3%。尽管股息一直在支付，但自 2020 年 4 月以来并没有变化。虽然仍然实现了正回报，但考虑到这一时期市场的强劲表现，这并不是一个理想的回报。</p>
</div><p>That said, better days should be ahead for the REIT moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，未来 REIT 应该会迎来更好的日子。</p>
</div><h2>What is a mortgage REIT, and why have they struggled?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么是抵押贷款 REIT，它们为何会面临困境？</h2>
</div><p>Before considering an investment in AGNC, investors first need to understand exactly what the company does. Admittedly, it's a bit complicated, but let's try to break it down as simply as possible, as well as explain why mortgage REITs have struggled the past few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑投资 AGNC 之前，投资者首先需要了解该公司的具体业务。诚然，这有点复杂，但让我们尽量简单明了地解释一下，同时说明为什么抵押贷款 REIT 在过去几年中面临困境。</p>
</div><p>AGNC is a mortgage REIT that invests in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that are backed by government or government-sponsored agencies, such as <strong>Fannie Mae</strong>, <strong>Freddie Mac</strong>, and <strong>Ginnie Mae</strong>. More simply, it owns a portfolio of mortgages. Since these mortgages are essentially backed by the government, they carry no default risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 是一家抵押贷款 REIT，投资于由政府或政府赞助机构（如 <strong>房利美</strong>、<strong>房地美</strong> 和 <strong>吉尼梅</strong>）支持的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。简单来说，它拥有一组抵押贷款。由于这些抵押贷款基本上是由政府支持的，因此没有违约风险。</p>
</div><p>AGNC makes money by using short-term financing, usually in the form of repurchase agreements, and then it buys longer-dated MBS. It then makes money through the difference in the interest rate spread between its financing costs and the income its MBS investments generate. This income is then used to pay its dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 通过使用短期融资（通常以回购协议的形式）来赚钱，然后购买长期 MBS。它通过融资成本与 MBS 投资产生的收入之间的利差来获利。这部分收入随后用于支付股息。</p>
</div><p>Short-term financing rates can fluctuate, so mortgage REITs also hedge out these rates to better match the duration of the MBS in their portfolios. This is done through widely used hedging strategies, such as using interest rate swaps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期融资利率可能会波动，因此抵押贷款 REIT 也会对这些利率进行对冲，以更好地匹配其投资组合中 MBS 的期限。这是通过广泛使用的对冲策略实现的，例如使用利率互换。</p>
</div><p>Hedging has been particularly important for mortgage REITs in recent years, as there has been a historically long inverted yield curve, which only just recently returned to normal earlier this year. An inverted yield curve is when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近几年，对冲对抵押贷款 REIT 尤其重要，因为出现了历史上持续时间较长的倒挂收益率曲线，直到今年早些时候才刚刚恢复正常。倒挂收益率曲线是指短期利率高于长期利率。</p>
</div><p>While AGNC's funding expenses have risen over the past year, it still has been able to maintain a healthy net interest spread, which is the difference between its funding costs and the yield of its MBS portfolio. Hedging was able to reduce its funding costs by 2.9% last quarter. If not for hedging, the yield of its portfolio would have been less than its funding costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 AGNC 的融资费用在过去一年中有所上升，但它仍然能够保持健康的净利差，即其融资成本与 MBS 投资组合收益之间的差额。上个季度，对冲使其融资成本降低了 2.9%。如果没有对冲，其投资组合的收益将低于其融资成本。</p>
</div><p>While mortgages have faced some pressure with narrowing net interest spreads this year, the biggest issue they have faced over the past few years has been the decline in the value of MBS. As interest rates have risen and spreads between MBS and Treasury bonds have widened, the current carrying values of MBS have fallen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管抵押贷款在今年面临净利差收窄的压力，但它们在过去几年中面临的最大问题是 MBS 价值的下降。随着利率上升，MBS 与国债之间的利差扩大，MBS 的当前账面价值下降。</p>
</div><p>The reason for this is quite simple. If you invested in a fixed-income security, like a Treasury bond or MBS, with a 4% yield, and current rates for similar newly issued securities were now 7%, you would not be able to sell the security you have at face value and turn around and buy the new security with the higher yield. Instead, you would have to sell the security you own at a discount so it would closely match the yield of the newly issued security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因很简单。如果你投资于固定收益证券，如国债或 MBS，收益率为 4%，而当前类似新发行证券的利率为 7%，你将无法以面值出售你拥有的证券，然后再购买收益率更高的新证券。相反，你必须以折扣价出售你拥有的证券，以使其收益率与新发行的证券相匹配。</p>
</div><p>As such, as new MBS started to have higher coupons, the value of older issued MBS with lower coupon rates fell. This shows up in a mortgage REIT's tangible book value (TBV), which represents the current value of its portfolio. Between the end of 2021 and the end of 2023, AGNC saw its TBV per share sink 45%, going from $15.75 per share down to $8.70 per share. At the end of last quarter (Q3 2024), it was at $8.82, so it has stabilized in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，随着新 MBS 开始具有更高的票息，旧发行的低票息 MBS 的价值下降。这在抵押贷款 REIT 的有形账面价值（TBV）中体现出来，代表其投资组合的当前价值。在 2021 年底到 2023 年底之间，AGNC 的每股 TBV 下降了 45%，从每股 15.75 美元降至每股 8.70 美元。在上个季度末（2024 年第三季度），其 TBV 为 8.82 美元，因此在 2024 年已经稳定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDA2ODEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F800681%2Fgettyimages-1474780101.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why AGNC should perform better moving forward</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 AGNC 在未来表现会更好</h2>
</div><p>The decline in AGNC shares is directly correlated to the drop in its TBV, which was spurred both by higher rates and the widening of the spread between MBS and Treasuries. Currently, there is a good indication that rates will fall while spreads should at least remain stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 股价的下跌与其 TBV 的下降直接相关，这一下降是由于利率上升和 MBS 与国债之间的利差扩大所导致的。目前，有良好的迹象表明利率将下降，而利差至少将保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>On the interest rate front, the Fed has already cut rates twice this year, lowering rates by 50 basis points in September and another 25 basis points in October. Meanwhile, Fed officials are generally expecting rates to continue to head lower over the next two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在利率方面，美联储今年已经两次降息，9 月份降息 50 个基点，10 月份再降 25 个基点。同时，美联储官员普遍预计未来两年利率将继续下降。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries currently sits around 2.5%, which is historically high. The spread has widened largely because the Fed stopped buying MBS after its period of quantitive easing during the pandemic and then let its MBS run off and replaced them with Treasury bills. At the same time, many banks and other financial institutions also backed away from buying MBS, but there are signs they could return with rates set to move lower, the yield curve no longer inverted, and lower volatility in the market. As rates head lower, these institutions should begin to look toward higher-yielding instruments such as MBS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，抵押贷款利率与国债之间的利差目前约为 2.5%，这是历史高位。利差的扩大主要是因为美联储在疫情期间的量化宽松结束后停止购买 MBS，并让其 MBS 到期后用国债替代。同时，许多银行和其他金融机构也减少了对 MBS 的购买，但有迹象表明，随着利率下调、收益率曲线不再倒挂以及市场波动性降低，这些机构可能会重新回归。随着利率的下降，这些机构应该开始关注收益率更高的工具，如 MBS。</p>
</div><p>If the spreads narrow, AGNC will be a big beneficiary as it boosts its TBV, but even if they just remain around current levels, which its management is expecting, it should be a very good investment environment for the REIT compared to the last few years. At the same time, with the Fed lowering short-term rates, it should begin to lower its funding costs over the next few years. High long-term rates with low short-term rates create a good investment environment for mortgage REITs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果利差收窄，AGNC 将成为主要受益者，因为这将提升其 TBV，但即使它们保持在当前水平（其管理层对此持乐观态度），对于 REIT 来说，这也应该是一个非常好的投资环境，相较于过去几年。同时，随着美联储降低短期利率，未来几年其融资成本也应该开始降低。长期高利率与短期低利率为抵押贷款 REIT 创造了良好的投资环境。</p>
</div><p>As such, with a 15% yield and a much better investment environment, AGNC looks like a solid option to buy with its stock under $10. It should provide solid dividend income with the potential for moderate stock price appreciation moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，考虑到 15% 的收益率和更好的投资环境，AGNC 看起来是一个值得购买的稳健选择，其股价低于 10 美元。它应该能够提供稳定的股息收入，并有潜力实现适度的股价升值。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy AGNC Investment While It's Below $10?

- AGNC Investment 的前瞻收益率为 15%，吸引了收入导向型投资者。  
- 该房地产投资信托自 2020 年 4 月以来每月支付相同的股息，股价过去五年下跌约 44%。  
- 随着利率下降和利差稳定，AGNC 未来有望改善投资环境。

你是否应该在 AGNC Investment 股价低于 10 美元时购买？