<p>亿万富翁迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor），企业软件提供商 <strong>MicroStrategy</strong>（MSTR -5.41%）的执行主席，是一位著名的 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC -2.24%）看涨者。随着全球最有价值的加密货币在 2024 年价格飙升 151%（截至 12 月 17 日下午），这一观点对他来说非常成功。</p>
<p>塞勒已将 MicroStrategy 定位为通过股权和债务资本来积极购买比特币。他对这一数字资产的长期前景依然充满信心，预测 2045 年价格目标为 1300 万美元。</p>
<p>如果加密货币达到这个高目标，100 美元的投资将值多少钱。</p>
<h2>塞勒的基本情况</h2>
<p>塞勒的净资产估计约为 100 亿美元，他在 2020 年对比特币持看涨态度，认为它比现金更适合存放资本。在那年的 8 月，MicroStrategy 购买了这一数字资产以纳入其资产负债表。随着时间的推移，加密货币的价格持续上涨，塞勒的信念变得更加坚定。</p>
<p>如今，他的业务可以被视为一家比特币控股公司。截至 10 月 30 日，MicroStrategy 拥有 252,220 个比特币，按今天的价格计算，价值近 270 亿美元，超过该资产总市值的 1%。</p>
<p>看到价格持续上涨无疑对塞勒和 MicroStrategy 的股东是有利的。他从未避讳表达自己的观点。</p>
<p>2045 年价格达到 1300 万美元的基本情况是基于假设全球总资产基数的 7%——包括房地产、股票和债券等领域的资金——将流向比特币。目前，这一数字不到 0.2%。</p>
<p>这意味着，如果有人现在仅投资 100 美元于比特币，如果基本情况成立，那么 21 年后这笔投资将价值 12,200 美元。这是一个令人难以置信的回报，年均收益率达到 25.7%。</p>
<p>塞勒最看涨的情况预测全球资产基数的 22% 流向加密货币，价格目标为 4900 万美元。这将使今天的 100 美元投资价值 46,000 美元。即使在最悲观的情况下，他也认为价格将在未来 21 年内上涨 28 倍，达到 300 万美元。在这种情况下，你在 2024 年的 100 美元将增长到大约 2,800 美元。</p>
<h2>预测是困难的</h2>
<p>每当有人抛出如此巨大的数字时，确实会引起大家的关注。考虑到迈克尔·塞勒对比特币的信念在过去几年中是多么丰厚，这种关注更是加倍。</p>
<p>然而，投资者必须理解，做出准确的长期预测是多么困难。无论一个人多么聪明或听起来多么有见地，没有人能大致知道加密货币在下周、下个月、下个季度或明年的价格，更不用说在接下来的二十年内了。影响因素有很多——如投资者情绪、宏观力量、监管变化和技术发展——这些都对价格产生影响。</p>
<p>这就是为什么我认为最好对塞勒的预测持保留态度。但这并不意味着数字代币不值得更深入的关注。事实上，我认为比特币应该在每个长期投资者的雷达上，特别是那些距离退休还有一段时间的人。即使比特币未能达到塞勒的具体价格目标，它仍可能是一个有利可图的资产。</p>
<p>2100 万个硬性供应量显示了其稀缺性，这一点塞勒无疑非常欣赏。这是一个对希望将财富储存在不受显著通货膨胀压力影响的资产中的投资者极具吸引力的特征。它使比特币优于法定货币，如美元或欧元，这些货币不断受到中央银行活动的贬值。</p>
<p>对于那些刚接触比特币、仍在学习曲线中的新手来说，将 1% 的资金分配到一个良好多元化的投资组合中是合理的。随着你对比特币的知识和理解随着时间的推移而增长，合理地增加这一比例以反映你可能拥有的更高信念水平也是合情合理的。</p>

MSTR

<p>亿万富翁迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor），MicroStrategy 的执行董事长，预测比特币到 2045 年可能达到 600 万美元的价格目标，前提是全球总资产的 7% 将流入比特币。目前，MicroStrategy 持有 252,220 个比特币，价值近 40 亿美元。塞勒的乐观展望暗示投资者将获得可观的回报，但他承认，由于各种影响因素，长期价格预测具有不可预测性。尽管如此，他认为比特币是长期投资者的有价值资产，特别是考虑到其固定供应和超越法定货币的潜力</p>

<p>The billionaire Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of enterprise software provider <strong>MicroStrategy</strong>(MSTR -5.41%), is a prominent <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC -2.24%) bull. This view has worked out nicely for him after the world's most valuable cryptocurrency has seen its price surge 151% in 2024 (as of the afternoon of Dec. 17).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亿万富翁迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor），企业软件提供商 <strong>MicroStrategy</strong>（MSTR -5.41%）的执行主席，是一位著名的 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC -2.24%）看涨者。随着全球最有价值的加密货币在 2024 年价格飙升 151%（截至 12 月 17 日下午），这一观点对他来说非常成功。</p>
</div><p>Saylor has positioned MicroStrategy to raise equity and debt capital in order to buy Bitcoin aggressively. And he remains incredibly optimistic about the digital asset over the long term, predicting a $13 million price target in 2045.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塞勒已将 MicroStrategy 定位为通过股权和债务资本来积极购买比特币。他对这一数字资产的长期前景依然充满信心，预测 2045 年价格目标为 1300 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Here's how much a $100 investment would be worth if the crypto reaches that lofty figure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果加密货币达到这个高目标，100 美元的投资将值多少钱。</p>
</div><h2>Saylor's base case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>塞勒的基本情况</h2>
</div><p>Saylor, whose net worth is estimated to be about $10 billion, became bullish on Bitcoin in 2020, viewing it as a better place to park capital compared to cash. In August of that year, MicroStrategy purchased the digital asset to put on its own balance sheet. As time passed and the crypto's price continued marching higher, Saylor's conviction became even stronger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塞勒的净资产估计约为 100 亿美元，他在 2020 年对比特币持看涨态度，认为它比现金更适合存放资本。在那年的 8 月，MicroStrategy 购买了这一数字资产以纳入其资产负债表。随着时间的推移，加密货币的价格持续上涨，塞勒的信念变得更加坚定。</p>
</div><p>These days, his business can be viewed as a Bitcoin holding company. As of Oct. 30, MicroStrategy owned 252,220 bitcoins, worth almost $27 billion at today's price, which is equal to more than 1% of the asset's entire market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，他的业务可以被视为一家比特币控股公司。截至 10 月 30 日，MicroStrategy 拥有 252,220 个比特币，按今天的价格计算，价值近 270 亿美元，超过该资产总市值的 1%。</p>
</div><p>To see the price keep rising is certainly a beneficial outcome for Saylor and MicroStrategy shareholders. And he has never shied away from voicing his opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到价格持续上涨无疑对塞勒和 MicroStrategy 的股东是有利的。他从未避讳表达自己的观点。</p>
</div><p>The base case of the price getting to $13 million in 2045 is built on the assumption that 7% of the world's total asset base -- which includes money in areas like real estate, stocks, and bonds -- will flow to Bitcoin. Right now, that figure is less than 0.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2045 年价格达到 1300 万美元的基本情况是基于假设全球总资产基数的 7%——包括房地产、股票和债券等领域的资金——将流向比特币。目前，这一数字不到 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>This means that if someone were to invest just $100 in Bitcoin right now, that holding would be worth $12,200 in 21 years if the base case holds true. That's an unbelievable return that translates to a 25.7% average yearly gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着，如果有人现在仅投资 100 美元于比特币，如果基本情况成立，那么 21 年后这笔投资将价值 12,200 美元。这是一个令人难以置信的回报，年均收益率达到 25.7%。</p>
</div><p>Saylor's most bullish case predicts 22% of the global asset base goes to the crypto, with a price target of $49 million. That would be a $46,000 value for today's $100 investment. And even in the bear case, he sees the price rising 28-fold to $3 million over the next 21 years. Here, your $100 in 2024 would grow to roughly $2,800.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塞勒最看涨的情况预测全球资产基数的 22% 流向加密货币，价格目标为 4900 万美元。这将使今天的 100 美元投资价值 46,000 美元。即使在最悲观的情况下，他也认为价格将在未来 21 年内上涨 28 倍，达到 300 万美元。在这种情况下，你在 2024 年的 100 美元将增长到大约 2,800 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Predictions are hard</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预测是困难的</h2>
</div><p>Anytime someone throws out huge numbers like this, it definitely catches everyone's attention. This is doubly true when you consider how lucrative Michael Saylor's belief in Bitcoin has been in the past few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每当有人抛出如此巨大的数字时，确实会引起大家的关注。考虑到迈克尔·塞勒对比特币的信念在过去几年中是多么丰厚，这种关注更是加倍。</p>
</div><p>However, it's important that investors understand just how difficult it is to make accurate long-term predictions. No matter how smart someone is or sounds, no one knows even approximately what the crypto's price will be in the next week, month, quarter, or year, let alone over the next two decades. There are so many variable factors in play -- like investor sentiment, macro forces, regulatory changes, and technological developments -- that all have an impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者必须理解，做出准确的长期预测是多么困难。无论一个人多么聪明或听起来多么有见地，没有人能大致知道加密货币在下周、下个月、下个季度或明年的价格，更不用说在接下来的二十年内了。影响因素有很多——如投资者情绪、宏观力量、监管变化和技术发展——这些都对价格产生影响。</p>
</div><p>This is why I think it's best to take Saylor's forecast with a grain of salt. But that doesn't mean the digital token isn't worth a closer look. In fact, I think Bitcoin should be on every long-term investor's radar, particularly those who have a way to go until retirement. The digital gold could be a lucrative asset even if it falls short of Saylor's specific price targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么我认为最好对塞勒的预测持保留态度。但这并不意味着数字代币不值得更深入的关注。事实上，我认为比特币应该在每个长期投资者的雷达上，特别是那些距离退休还有一段时间的人。即使比特币未能达到塞勒的具体价格目标，它仍可能是一个有利可图的资产。</p>
</div><p>The fixed supply of 21 million coins points to its scarcity, something Saylor undoubtedly appreciates. This is an incredibly compelling characteristic for investors looking to store their wealth in an asset that doesn't face significant inflationary pressures. It makes Bitcoin superior to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar or the euro, which are constantly being debased by central bank activities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2100 万个硬性供应量显示了其稀缺性，这一点塞勒无疑非常欣赏。这是一个对希望将财富储存在不受显著通货膨胀压力影响的资产中的投资者极具吸引力的特征。它使比特币优于法定货币，如美元或欧元，这些货币不断受到中央银行活动的贬值。</p>
</div><p>For those new to Bitcoin who are still navigating the learning curve, it makes sense to allocate 1% of a well-diversified portfolio to the digital asset. As your knowledge and understanding of it grow over time, then it's reasonable to increase that allocation to reflect the higher level of conviction you might have.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些刚接触比特币、仍在学习曲线中的新手来说，将 1% 的资金分配到一个良好多元化的投资组合中是合理的。随着你对比特币的知识和理解随着时间的推移而增长，合理地增加这一比例以反映你可能拥有的更高信念水平也是合情合理的。</p>
</div>

Here's How Much $100 of Bitcoin Would Be Worth If It Reaches This Billionaire's 2045 Price Target

Motley Fool

Strategy

如果比特币达到这位亿万富翁的 2045 年价格目标，100 美元的比特币将值多少钱？