<p>在过去的 24 小时内，随着美联储降息，我们在整个秋季和初冬看到的加密货币势头遭遇了重大障碍。这听起来似乎是件好事，但作为降息的一部分，美联储还表示预计 2025 年的通货膨胀和失业率将高于预期。综合来看，投资者今天正在抛售风险资产。</p>
<p><strong>比特币</strong>(BTC -4.33%) 是最大的输家，截至东部时间下午 3 点，过去 24 小时下跌 6.2%，跌破了$100,000 的水平。<strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -8.55%) 在此期间下跌 9.7%，至$3,350，而 <strong>狗狗币</strong>(DOGE -14.44%) 则下跌 16.8%，至$0.3032。</p>
<h2>美联储对加密货币的影响</h2>
<p>尽管加密货币被宣传为摆脱传统金融生态系统的一种方式，但加密市场的交易方式与传统风险资产（如成长股）非常相似。在这种情况下，当利率上升时，成长股下跌，加密货币也随之下跌。</p>
<p>我提到美联储昨天降息，但市场将通货膨胀的讨论视为长期债券的风险，公告后这些债券的收益率上升。根据彭博社的数据，10 年期国债在过去一天上涨了 6 个基点，过去一年上涨了 64 个基点。</p>
<p>正如我们在 2022 年看到的，较高的利率意味着加密货币的估值降低。</p>
<h2>FOMO 周期接近尾声？</h2>
<p>这波加密货币的上涨始于选举后，当时人们对当选总统唐纳德·特朗普将为加密市场开启牛市的猜测增加。虽然这种情况可能会发生，但所看到的收益并没有与行业的任何基本变化相符。</p>
<p>对错过机会的恐惧，或称 FOMO，推动了估值的上升，而这种 FOMO 现在可能即将结束。</p>
<p>还有人猜测，特别是比特币可能会被美国政府作为储备购买，或者可能被其他政府用作储备。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明确表示，美联储不允许购买比特币，这可能导致一些失望。</p>
<p>这看起来类似于投资中的 “买传闻，卖消息” 时刻，当结果或消息公布时会感到失望，即使是像美联储不购买比特币这样显而易见的事情。</p>
<h2>迈向 2025 年的问题</h2>
<p>过去一年的收益主要基于对交易所交易基金（ETFs）和选举等事项的投机和势头。但在 2025 年，这些顺风可能会减少，价格将由进入市场的新买家数量驱动，比如比特币。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，<strong>MicroStrategy</strong> 也出现了下跌，其套利策略在没有大幅溢价的情况下变得不太合理。它也是市场上最大的比特币单一买家，因此其数十亿美元的购买推动了比特币的价格。比特币的走势也影响着加密货币，这意味着今天一切都在下跌。</p>

<p>最近，包括比特币、以太坊和狗狗币在内的加密货币价格下跌，原因是美联储降息，这引发了人们对通货膨胀和失业的担忧。比特币下跌了 6.2%，以太坊下跌了 9.7%，狗狗币下跌了 16.8%。加密市场通常受到传统风险资产的影响，对美联储的公告反应消极，导致抛售。关于政府购买比特币的猜测以及 FOMO 周期的结束也促成了这一下跌。随着 2025 年的临近，市场可能面临更少的支持因素，从而影响未来的估值</p>

<p>The crypto momentum we've seen all fall and early winter hit a big snag over the past 24 hours after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. That may sound like a good thing on the surface, but as part of the cuts the Fed also said it expects inflation and unemployment to rise more than expected in 2025. Add it up and investors are selling risk assets today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 24 小时内，随着美联储降息，我们在整个秋季和初冬看到的加密货币势头遭遇了重大障碍。这听起来似乎是件好事，但作为降息的一部分，美联储还表示预计 2025 年的通货膨胀和失业率将高于预期。综合来看，投资者今天正在抛售风险资产。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC -4.33%) is the biggest loser, falling 6.2% in the past 24 hours as of 3 p.m. ET and dropping below the $100,000 level. <strong>Ethereum</strong>(ETH -8.55%) is down 9.7% in that time to $3,350 and <strong>Dogecoin</strong>(DOGE -14.44%) is off 16.8% to $0.3032.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币</strong>(BTC -4.33%) 是最大的输家，截至东部时间下午 3 点，过去 24 小时下跌 6.2%，跌破了$100,000 的水平。<strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -8.55%) 在此期间下跌 9.7%，至$3,350，而 <strong>狗狗币</strong>(DOGE -14.44%) 则下跌 16.8%，至$0.3032。</p>
</div><h2>The Fed's impact on crypto</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储对加密货币的影响</h2>
</div><p>As much as cryptocurrencies have been marketed as a way out from under the traditional financial ecosystem, the crypto market trades a lot like traditional risk assets like growth stocks. In this case, when interest rates rise, growth stocks fall and crypto moves down along with them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管加密货币被宣传为摆脱传统金融生态系统的一种方式，但加密市场的交易方式与传统风险资产（如成长股）非常相似。在这种情况下，当利率上升时，成长股下跌，加密货币也随之下跌。</p>
</div><p>I mentioned that the Fed cut rates yesterday, but the market took the inflation talk as a risk for longer-term bonds, and those yields rose after the announcement. According to Bloomberg, the 10-year government bond rose 6 basis points in the last day and is now up 64 basis points over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我提到美联储昨天降息，但市场将通货膨胀的讨论视为长期债券的风险，公告后这些债券的收益率上升。根据彭博社的数据，10 年期国债在过去一天上涨了 6 个基点，过去一年上涨了 64 个基点。</p>
</div><p>As we saw in 2022, higher rates means lower valuations for cryptocurrencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我们在 2022 年看到的，较高的利率意味着加密货币的估值降低。</p>
</div><h2>A FOMO cycle nearing its end?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>FOMO 周期接近尾声？</h2>
</div><p>This current run for crypto started after the election when there was an increase in speculation that President-elect Donald Trump would open up a bull run for the crypto market. And that may happen, but the gains seen didn't line up with any fundamental changes in the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这波加密货币的上涨始于选举后，当时人们对当选总统唐纳德·特朗普将为加密市场开启牛市的猜测增加。虽然这种情况可能会发生，但所看到的收益并没有与行业的任何基本变化相符。</p>
</div><p>Fear of missing out, or FOMO, drove valuations higher and that FOMO may now be coming to an end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对错过机会的恐惧，或称 FOMO，推动了估值的上升，而这种 FOMO 现在可能即将结束。</p>
</div><p>There was also speculation that Bitcoin, in particular, would be bought by the U.S. government as a reserve or could be used as a reserve by other governments. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was clear the Federal Reserve is not allowed to buy Bitcoin, which could have caused some disappointment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有人猜测，特别是比特币可能会被美国政府作为储备购买，或者可能被其他政府用作储备。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明确表示，美联储不允许购买比特币，这可能导致一些失望。</p>
</div><p>This looks similar to a &#34;buy the rumor, sell the news&#34; moment in investing, where there's disappointment when results or news comes out, even something as obvious as the Fed not buying Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这看起来类似于投资中的 “买传闻，卖消息” 时刻，当结果或消息公布时会感到失望，即使是像美联储不购买比特币这样显而易见的事情。</p>
</div><h2>Questions heading into 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>迈向 2025 年的问题</h2>
</div><p>The gains of the last year were largely based on speculation and momentum from items like the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the election. But in 2025 there may be fewer of these tailwinds and pricing is driven by the number of new buyers coming into the market, like Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一年的收益主要基于对交易所交易基金（ETFs）和选举等事项的投机和势头。但在 2025 年，这些顺风可能会减少，价格将由进入市场的新买家数量驱动，比如比特币。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth noting that <strong>MicroStrategy</strong> has also fallen and its arbitrage strategy makes less sense without a big premium. It's also the biggest individual buyer of Bitcoin in the market, so its multibillion-dollar purchases have been a driver of the price of Bitcoin. And as Bitcoin goes so does crypto, which means everything is lower today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，<strong>MicroStrategy</strong> 也出现了下跌，其套利策略在没有大幅溢价的情况下变得不太合理。它也是市场上最大的比特币单一买家，因此其数十亿美元的购买推动了比特币的价格。比特币的走势也影响着加密货币，这意味着今天一切都在下跌。</p>
</div>

Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin All Dropped Today

- 美联储降息后，加密货币市场遭遇重大挫折，投资者纷纷抛售风险资产。  
- 比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌 6.2%，跌破 1 万美元，其他加密货币也大幅下滑。  
- 预计 2025 年通胀和失业率上升，市场情绪转向谨慎，可能影响未来的买入动力。  

为什么比特币、以太坊和狗狗币今天都出现下跌