<p>科幻小说真的正在变成科学事实——至少如果你关注 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -0.24%)(GOOGL 0.06%) 及其谷歌研究项目的话，似乎是这样的。量子人工智能研究团队刚刚宣布了一款革命性的量子计算机芯片，称之为 Willow。凭借在可靠性和计算强度方面的突破，Willow 可以为量子计算机在不久的将来实现商业化铺平道路。</p>
<p>但这到底意味着什么，它将如何影响 Alphabet 的股票？让我们深入探讨这一量子突破以及它与 Alphabet 在快速增长的人工智能（AI）领域的雄心之间的联系。</p>
<h2>朝商业可行性迈出一步</h2>
<p>量子计算机是一种利用量子力学的不确定性原理的计算机。与普通计算机使用的数字 “比特” 不同，量子计算机使用被称为量子比特（qubits）来计算问题。由于利用了量子力学，这些计算机能够比传统超级计算机更快地计算复杂问题。</p>
<p>然而，研究人员在开发这些计算机时遇到了一个重大问题。传统上，量子计算机在系统中添加更多量子比特时，错误率会增加，这意味着计算机在扩展时变得不可靠。</p>
<p>Willow 解决了这个问题，实际上在添加更多量子比特时变得 <em>更</em> 精确。这是量子计算领域的一个重大突破。基于这一突破，Alphabet 将能够扩展到更大规模的量子计算机，最终能够在其云计算部门实现商业化。</p>
<p>Willow 的性能令人震惊。它能够在五分钟内解决一个极其复杂的计算，而超级计算机根本无法解决，或者需要的时间超过我们已知宇宙存在的时间。想一想：利用量子力学可能为世界提供了计算资源的巨大飞跃。</p>
<h2>将先进的人工智能带给大众？</h2>
<p>在量子计算领域处于领先地位可能有助于 Alphabet 实现其在人工智能方面的雄心。来自 OpenAI 和 Alphabet 等公司的最新人工智能发展已经迅速被消费者接受。问题是，这些工具目前需要大量的支出用于数据中心来进行训练和运行。如果这些工具的使用增长了 100 倍或更多，这些科技巨头的开支将失控，或者公司将迅速面临计算基础设施的压力。</p>
<p>Alphabet 在解决这个问题上已经具有优势，因为它长期以来一直投资于被称为张量处理单元（TPUs）的人工智能计算芯片以及其谷歌云部门。这些帮助 Alphabet 高效地扩展其人工智能支出，同时也允许它向第三方公司销售人工智能软件工具。尽管如此，它仍然限制了多少用户可以访问新的人工智能工具，其中一些最先进的产品处于付费墙之下。</p>
<p>其他公司也采用相同的策略。<strong>Microsoft</strong> 的 Copilot 工具每人每月收费 30 美元，对于大多数人来说太贵了。</p>
<p>利用量子计算机作为其计算基础设施可以帮助 Alphabet 降低计算成本，同时帮助它为自己和第三方解决更复杂的问题。这可能有助于将先进的人工智能工具带给大众。Alphabet 有多个产品拥有超过 20 亿用户。如今，这些用户中的大多数无法访问其最佳的人工智能软件。也许通过量子计算，Alphabet 将能够向所有用户免费提供这些产品。</p>
<p>它也超越了当前的聊天机器人和搜索产品。量子计算应该有助于解决医学、密码学和网络安全等领域的重大问题，这些问题受到当前计算系统的限制。如果 Alphabet 能够实现技术的商业化，机会将是无穷无尽的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8aed2039bf89775749ce39f9e62d631.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8aed2039bf89775749ce39f9e62d631.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>这对 Alphabet 股票在 2025 年的意义</h2>
<p>量子计算是 Alphabet 一项有前景的技术。如果能够扩展，它可以进一步保护 Alphabet 免受竞争，并以成本效益高的方式将先进的人工智能工具带给大众。这可能为 Alphabet 节省资金，并导致收入增长，这对股票来说将是好消息。</p>
<p>不过，不要指望这些在 2025 年实现。关注更多的研究成果和人工智能更新，但至少还需要几年（如果不是更长时间），Alphabet 的商业产品才能在量子计算机上运行。这是一个新兴的研究领域。</p>
<p>在 Willow 宣布后，Alphabet 的股票上涨至历史新高，这意味着投资者对它可能对 Alphabet 未来的影响持乐观态度。然而，财务影响不会在很长一段时间内显现。</p>
<p>尽管如此，Alphabet 似乎已经消除了任何关于其在基础技术研究方面落后的担忧。事实上，我认为 Willow 证明了它在尖端技术方面处于领先地位，这将有助于公司和股票在长期内的表现。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>谷歌的量子人工智能研究团队推出了一款名为 Willow 的突破性量子计算机芯片，增强了可靠性和计算强度。这一进展可能会推动量子计算的商业应用，对 Alphabet 的人工智能雄心产生重大影响。通过利用量子力学，Willow 能够比传统超级计算机更快地解决复杂问题，可能降低计算成本并扩大对先进人工智能工具的访问。尽管在公告后股价上涨，但预计财务收益需要数年才能显现，商业产品可能要到 2025 年之后才能上市</p>

<p>Science fiction is really turning into science fact -- at least it seems like it if you follow <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -0.24%)(GOOGL 0.06%) and its Google research programs. The Quantum AI research team just announced a revolutionary Quantum computer chip it calls Willow. With breakthroughs in reliability and computational intensity, Willow can pave the way for quantum computers to be used commercially in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科幻小说真的正在变成科学事实——至少如果你关注 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -0.24%)(GOOGL 0.06%) 及其谷歌研究项目的话，似乎是这样的。量子人工智能研究团队刚刚宣布了一款革命性的量子计算机芯片，称之为 Willow。凭借在可靠性和计算强度方面的突破，Willow 可以为量子计算机在不久的将来实现商业化铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>But what exactly does this mean, and how could it impact Alphabet stock? Let's dive into this quantum breakthrough and how it connects to Alphabet's ambitions in the fast-growing field of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这到底意味着什么，它将如何影响 Alphabet 的股票？让我们深入探讨这一量子突破以及它与 Alphabet 在快速增长的人工智能（AI）领域的雄心之间的联系。</p>
</div><h2>A step toward commercial viability</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>朝商业可行性迈出一步</h2>
</div><p>A quantum computer is a computer that utilizes the uncertainty principles of quantum mechanics. Instead of the digital &#34;bits&#34; used in regular computers, a quantum computer uses what are called qubits to compute problems. Due to the utilization of quantum mechanics, these computers can calculate complex problems much faster than a traditional supercomputer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算机是一种利用量子力学的不确定性原理的计算机。与普通计算机使用的数字 “比特” 不同，量子计算机使用被称为量子比特（qubits）来计算问题。由于利用了量子力学，这些计算机能够比传统超级计算机更快地计算复杂问题。</p>
</div><p>Researchers have had a major problem in developing these computers, though. Traditionally, a quantum computer will see increased error rates the more qubits you add to the system, meaning that the computer becomes unreliable as it scales up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，研究人员在开发这些计算机时遇到了一个重大问题。传统上，量子计算机在系统中添加更多量子比特时，错误率会增加，这意味着计算机在扩展时变得不可靠。</p>
</div><p>Willow has solved this issue and actually gets <em>more</em> accurate the <em>more</em> qubits are added. This is a huge breakthrough for the quantum computing field. Building on this breakthrough, Alphabet will be able to scale up to larger and larger quantum computers that it will eventually be able to commercialize in its cloud computing division.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Willow 解决了这个问题，实际上在添加更多量子比特时变得 <em>更</em> 精确。这是量子计算领域的一个重大突破。基于这一突破，Alphabet 将能够扩展到更大规模的量子计算机，最终能够在其云计算部门实现商业化。</p>
</div><p>The performance of Willow is staggeringly impressive. It was able to solve an intensely complicated computation in five minutes that a supercomputer would never be able to solve, or would take more time than we know the universe has existed to solve. Think about that for a second: Utilizing quantum mechanics is potentially offering the world a huge step change in computing resources.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Willow 的性能令人震惊。它能够在五分钟内解决一个极其复杂的计算，而超级计算机根本无法解决，或者需要的时间超过我们已知宇宙存在的时间。想一想：利用量子力学可能为世界提供了计算资源的巨大飞跃。</p>
</div><h2>Bringing advanced AI to the masses?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>将先进的人工智能带给大众？</h2>
</div><p>Being a leader in quantum computing may help Alphabet realize its ambitions in AI. Recent AI developments from the likes of OpenAI and Alphabet have seen rapid consumer adoption. The problem is, these tools currently require vast amounts of spending on data centers to train and run them. If usage of these tools grew by 100x or more, expenses for these technology giants would spiral out of control, or the companies would rapidly run into strains on their computing infrastructures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在量子计算领域处于领先地位可能有助于 Alphabet 实现其在人工智能方面的雄心。来自 OpenAI 和 Alphabet 等公司的最新人工智能发展已经迅速被消费者接受。问题是，这些工具目前需要大量的支出用于数据中心来进行训练和运行。如果这些工具的使用增长了 100 倍或更多，这些科技巨头的开支将失控，或者公司将迅速面临计算基础设施的压力。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet already has an advantage in solving this issue due to its long-running investments into AI computer chips it calls tensor processing units (TPUs) and its Google Cloud division. These help Alphabet efficiently scale its AI spending, while also allowing it to sell AI software tools to third-party companies. Even so, it is still limiting how many of its users get access to new AI tools, with some of the most advanced products under a paywall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 在解决这个问题上已经具有优势，因为它长期以来一直投资于被称为张量处理单元（TPUs）的人工智能计算芯片以及其谷歌云部门。这些帮助 Alphabet 高效地扩展其人工智能支出，同时也允许它向第三方公司销售人工智能软件工具。尽管如此，它仍然限制了多少用户可以访问新的人工智能工具，其中一些最先进的产品处于付费墙之下。</p>
</div><p>Other companies use the same strategy. <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s Copilot tool is $30 per person per month for an organization to try, making it too expensive for most people.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他公司也采用相同的策略。<strong>Microsoft</strong> 的 Copilot 工具每人每月收费 30 美元，对于大多数人来说太贵了。</p>
</div><p>Utilizing quantum computers for its computing infrastructure could help Alphabet reduce its computing costs, as well as help it solve vastly more complex problems for itself and third parties. This could help bring advanced AI tools to the masses. Alphabet has multiple products with over 2 billion users. Today, most of these users can't access its best AI software. Maybe with quantum computing, Alphabet will be able to offer these products for free to all of them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利用量子计算机作为其计算基础设施可以帮助 Alphabet 降低计算成本，同时帮助它为自己和第三方解决更复杂的问题。这可能有助于将先进的人工智能工具带给大众。Alphabet 有多个产品拥有超过 20 亿用户。如今，这些用户中的大多数无法访问其最佳的人工智能软件。也许通过量子计算，Alphabet 将能够向所有用户免费提供这些产品。</p>
</div><p>It moves beyond the current chatbot and search products as well. Quantum computing should help solve major problems in medicine, cryptography, and cybersecurity that are limited by current computing systems. The opportunities are truly endless if Alphabet can commercialize the technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它也超越了当前的聊天机器人和搜索产品。量子计算应该有助于解决医学、密码学和网络安全等领域的重大问题，这些问题受到当前计算系统的限制。如果 Alphabet 能够实现技术的商业化，机会将是无穷无尽的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8aed2039bf89775749ce39f9e62d631.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b8aed2039bf89775749ce39f9e62d631.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOG 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>What it means for Alphabet stock in 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对 Alphabet 股票在 2025 年的意义</h2>
</div><p>Quantum computing is a promising technology for Alphabet. If scaled up, it can further insulate Alphabet from the competition and allow the company to bring advanced AI tools to the masses in a cost-efficient manner. This could save Alphabet money and also lead to revenue growth, which would be great news for the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算是 Alphabet 一项有前景的技术。如果能够扩展，它可以进一步保护 Alphabet 免受竞争，并以成本效益高的方式将先进的人工智能工具带给大众。这可能为 Alphabet 节省资金，并导致收入增长，这对股票来说将是好消息。</p>
</div><p>Don't expect any of this to materialize in 2025, though. Watch out for more research achievements and AI updates, but it will be at least a few years (if not longer) that Alphabet's commercial products are running on quantum computers. It is a nascent research field.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，不要指望这些在 2025 年实现。关注更多的研究成果和人工智能更新，但至少还需要几年（如果不是更长时间），Alphabet 的商业产品才能在量子计算机上运行。这是一个新兴的研究领域。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet's stock rose to an all-time high right after Willow was announced, meaning that investors are optimistic about what it could mean for Alphabet's future. The financial impact will not be realized for a long while, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Willow 宣布后，Alphabet 的股票上涨至历史新高，这意味着投资者对它可能对 Alphabet 未来的影响持乐观态度。然而，财务影响不会在很长一段时间内显现。</p>
</div><p>Still, it looks like Alphabet has put to bed any concerns that it has fallen behind in fundamental technological research. In fact, I think Willow proves it is in the lead when it comes to cutting-edge tech, which should help the company and stock performance over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，Alphabet 似乎已经消除了任何关于其在基础技术研究方面落后的担忧。事实上，我认为 Willow 证明了它在尖端技术方面处于领先地位，这将有助于公司和股票在长期内的表现。</p>
</div>

Google's End-of-Year Quantum Breakthrough: What It Means for the AI Stock in 2025

- Alphabet 的量子计算机芯片 Willow 实现了重要突破，提升了计算准确性。  
- 该技术有望降低计算成本，推动 AI 工具的普及。  
- 投资者对 Alphabet 的未来持乐观态度，股价在 Willow 发布后创下新高。

谷歌的年终量子突破：这对 2025 年的 AI 股票意味着什么