<p>2024 年波动性较大的股票之一是 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>（RIVN 5.90%）。这家电动车制造商在今年经历了多次起伏，尽管过去几个月股票表现良好，但截至目前，股票仍然下跌约 35%。</p>
<p>现在的问题是，进入 2025 年，这只股票是买入、卖出还是持有。让我们看看每个论点，以帮助做出决定。</p>
<h2>卖出理由</h2>
<p>Rivian 的卖出理由主要归结为两个主要问题：电动车行业销售放缓和其低迷的毛利率。</p>
<p>北美的电动车销售仍在增长，但增长速度已经放缓。与此同时，混合动力车（HEV）的销售增长继续超过纯电动汽车（BEV）的增长。11 月份，美国 HEV 销售同比增长 41%，而 BEV 销售增长 15.2%。相比之下，2023 年美国的总电动车销售（包括 HEV、BEV 和插电式混合动力车）增长了 52%。</p>
<p>11 月份销售的增长恰逢当选总统唐纳德·特朗普谈论取消联邦电动车税收优惠。这可能导致 BEV 销售激增，因为犹豫不决的消费者在优惠可能消失之前进行购买。然而，这将是需求的提前释放，可能会对 2025 年的销售产生负面影响。同时，取消 7500 美元的电动车税收抵免也可能会影响未来的销售。</p>
<p>与此同时，车辆拥有者目前似乎更倾向于混合动力车，因为它们提供了更大的灵活性。非常昂贵的电池的使用寿命、转售价值、充电时间、充电基础设施的缺乏以及续航里程等问题使一些驾驶者不愿意转向 BEV。与此同时，<strong>丰田</strong> 和 <strong>本田</strong> 目前也更倾向于混合动力车而非 BEV。</p>
<p>对 Rivian 的另一个看空理由是其毛利率一直为负。这意味着它销售的车辆价格低于制造成本，不考虑市场营销和企业成本。这显然不是一个可持续的商业模式。公司正在努力改善其毛利率，但不仅需要找到实现正毛利率的途径，还需要最终实现正自由现金流和盈利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzMjAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0ODM0OTI0My5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzMjAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0ODM0OTI0My5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>买入理由</h2>
<p>虽然 Rivian 目前正在消耗现金，以改善其毛利率并扩大业务，但公司已经能够形成重要的合作伙伴关系。这包括与 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的合作，为其制造电动车送货车。亚马逊是公司最大的股东之一。</p>
<p>与此同时，它最近与 <strong>大众汽车</strong> 达成了一项合资协议，大众汽车将向公司投资高达 58 亿美元。大众汽车对 Rivian 的主要吸引力在于获得其新的区域架构，这预计将通过减少车辆中的电子控制单元（ECU）和布线数量显著降低制造成本。Rivian 还降低了进入车辆的其他材料成本，并提高了其制造设施的生产线速度。它预计这些变化将帮助它在第四季度获得适度的正毛利率。</p>
<p>来自大众汽车的现金流入，其中一部分将在达到某些里程碑后到来，将帮助 Rivian 加快新款低成本 R2 车型的生产，该车型计划于 2026 年推出。虽然 Rivian 在销售豪华 SUV 方面表现良好，但它希望更实惠的 R2 能够吸引更广泛的受众，预计起售价为 45,000 美元。销售更多汽车将带来更大的规模，从而利用固定成本，最终实现盈利。</p>
<p>Rivian 仍然是一家早期阶段的公司，公司的最大机会将在于未来几年转型为一家盈利的电动车制造商。虽然这不是一项容易的任务，但得到亚马逊和大众汽车的支持为其提供了较长的跑道和成功的良好机会。</p>
<h2>持有理由</h2>
<p>作为一家毛利率为负且正在消耗现金的早期阶段公司，Rivian 是一项投机性投资。然而，亚马逊和大众汽车的支持，加上其区域架构，给它提供了成功的坚实机会。这可能使得持有少量该股票的仓位变得值得。</p>
<h2>结论</h2>
<p>对于那些能够承受一定（好吧，实际上是很多）波动的风险承受能力强的投资者，我认为 Rivian 是一只可以小规模持有的股票，投资者可以在接下来的几年中持有，看看其故事如何发展。其技术吸引了大众汽车的大额投资，同时在未来几年与亚马逊也有相当大的机会。然而，这只股票并不适合心脏脆弱的人。</p>

RIVN

<p>Rivian Automotive (RIVN) 在 2024 年经历了显著的波动，目前年初至今下跌了 35%。卖出观点强调电动车销售放缓和负毛利率，而买入观点则指出与亚马逊和大众汽车的合作，这可能提高生产效率和盈利能力。Rivian 计划在 2026 年推出一款更低成本的 R2 车型。持有观点认为，尽管公司具有投机性，但其背后的支持和技术可能值得进行小额投资。总体而言，Rivian 为寻求长期增长的风险承受能力较强的投资者提供了潜在机会</p>

<p>One of the more volatile stocks of 2024 has been <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 5.90%). The electric vehicle (EV) maker has had a number of ups and downs this year, and while the stock has performed well the past couple of months, the stock is still down about 35% year to date, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年波动性较大的股票之一是 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>（RIVN 5.90%）。这家电动车制造商在今年经历了多次起伏，尽管过去几个月股票表现良好，但截至目前，股票仍然下跌约 35%。</p>
</div><p>The question now, though, is whether the stock is a buy, sell, or hold going into 2025. Let's look at each argument to help decide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在的问题是，进入 2025 年，这只股票是买入、卖出还是持有。让我们看看每个论点，以帮助做出决定。</p>
</div><h2>The sell case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>卖出理由</h2>
</div><p>The sell case for Rivian largely comes down to two main issues: slowing EV industry sales and its weak gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 的卖出理由主要归结为两个主要问题：电动车行业销售放缓和其低迷的毛利率。</p>
</div><p>EV sales are still growing in North America, but growth has decelerated. Meanwhile, the sale growth of hybrids (HEVs) continues to outpace the growth of pure battery electric (BEV) vehicles. In November, U.S. HEV sales climbed 41% year over year, while BEV sales were up 15.2%. By comparison, total EV sales (which include HEVs, BEVs, and plug-in hybrids) grew by 52% in the U.S. in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北美的电动车销售仍在增长，但增长速度已经放缓。与此同时，混合动力车（HEV）的销售增长继续超过纯电动汽车（BEV）的增长。11 月份，美国 HEV 销售同比增长 41%，而 BEV 销售增长 15.2%。相比之下，2023 年美国的总电动车销售（包括 HEV、BEV 和插电式混合动力车）增长了 52%。</p>
</div><p>The climb in November sales, meanwhile, comes at a time when President-elect Donald Trump has talked about eliminating federal EV tax incentives. This presumably could have led to a jump in BEV sales, as consumers on the fence make their purchases before the incentives may go away. However, this would be a pull-forward in demand and could then negatively impact 2025 sales. Meanwhile, the elimination of a $7,500 tax credit for EVs could also hurt sales moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月份销售的增长恰逢当选总统唐纳德·特朗普谈论取消联邦电动车税收优惠。这可能导致 BEV 销售激增，因为犹豫不决的消费者在优惠可能消失之前进行购买。然而，这将是需求的提前释放，可能会对 2025 年的销售产生负面影响。同时，取消 7500 美元的电动车税收抵免也可能会影响未来的销售。</p>
</div><p>Vehicle owners, meanwhile, currently appear to be more drawn to hybrids given the increased versatility they offer. The life expectancy of very expensive batteries, resale values, charging times, lack of charging infrastructure, and driving ranges are all issues that keep some drivers from switching to BEVs. Both <strong>Toyota</strong> and <strong>Honda</strong>, meanwhile, are currently leaning into hybrids over BEVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，车辆拥有者目前似乎更倾向于混合动力车，因为它们提供了更大的灵活性。非常昂贵的电池的使用寿命、转售价值、充电时间、充电基础设施的缺乏以及续航里程等问题使一些驾驶者不愿意转向 BEV。与此同时，<strong>丰田</strong> 和 <strong>本田</strong> 目前也更倾向于混合动力车而非 BEV。</p>
</div><p>The other bear case against Rivian comes down to its gross margin, which has been negative. This means that it is selling its vehicles for less than the cost to make them, not taking into account marketing and corporate costs. That's obviously not a sustainable business model. The company is working to improve its gross margin, but it will not only need to find a path to a positive gross margin, but also eventually positive free cash flow and profitability as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 Rivian 的另一个看空理由是其毛利率一直为负。这意味着它销售的车辆价格低于制造成本，不考虑市场营销和企业成本。这显然不是一个可持续的商业模式。公司正在努力改善其毛利率，但不仅需要找到实现正毛利率的途径，还需要最终实现正自由现金流和盈利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzMjAvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0ODM0OTI0My5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801320%2Fgettyimages-1348349243.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The buy case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>买入理由</h2>
</div><p>While Rivian is currently burning through cash as it looks to improve its gross margin and scale its business, the company has been able to form important partnerships. This includes one with <strong>Amazon</strong>, for whom it makes EV delivery vans. Amazon is one of the company's largest shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Rivian 目前正在消耗现金，以改善其毛利率并扩大业务，但公司已经能够形成重要的合作伙伴关系。这包括与 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的合作，为其制造电动车送货车。亚马逊是公司最大的股东之一。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, it recently entered into a joint venture with <strong>Volkswagen</strong>, which will invest up to $5.8 billion in the company. The big attraction to Volkswagen is gaining access to Rivian's new zonal architecture, which is expected to help significantly lower the costs of making its vehicles by reducing the number of electronic control units (ECUs) and wiring in its vehicles. Rivian has also lowered other material costs going into the vehicles and improved the line-rates of its manufacturing facility. It expects these changes to help it obtain a modest positive gross margin in Q4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，它最近与 <strong>大众汽车</strong> 达成了一项合资协议，大众汽车将向公司投资高达 58 亿美元。大众汽车对 Rivian 的主要吸引力在于获得其新的区域架构，这预计将通过减少车辆中的电子控制单元（ECU）和布线数量显著降低制造成本。Rivian 还降低了进入车辆的其他材料成本，并提高了其制造设施的生产线速度。它预计这些变化将帮助它在第四季度获得适度的正毛利率。</p>
</div><p>The cash influx from Volkswagen, with some coming later after certain milestones are met, will help Rivian ramp up the production of its new, lower-cost R2 model, which it plans to introduce in 2026. While Rivian has done well selling its luxury SUVs, it is looking for the more affordable R2 to appeal to a wider audience given its expected starting price of $45,000. Selling more cars leads to more scale, which leads to leveraging fixed costs, which eventually leads to profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自大众汽车的现金流入，其中一部分将在达到某些里程碑后到来，将帮助 Rivian 加快新款低成本 R2 车型的生产，该车型计划于 2026 年推出。虽然 Rivian 在销售豪华 SUV 方面表现良好，但它希望更实惠的 R2 能够吸引更广泛的受众，预计起售价为 45,000 美元。销售更多汽车将带来更大的规模，从而利用固定成本，最终实现盈利。</p>
</div><p>Rivian is still an early-stage company and the biggest opportunity for the company will be transitioning to become a profitable EV maker in the years ahead. While that will not be an easy task, being backed by Amazon and Volkswagen give it a long runway and a good chance to eventually succeed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 仍然是一家早期阶段的公司，公司的最大机会将在于未来几年转型为一家盈利的电动车制造商。虽然这不是一项容易的任务，但得到亚马逊和大众汽车的支持为其提供了较长的跑道和成功的良好机会。</p>
</div><h2>The hold case</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>持有理由</h2>
</div><p>As an early-stage company with a negative gross margin that is burning cash, Rivian is a speculative investment. However, the backing of Amazon and Volkswagen, together with its zonal architecture, gives it a solid chance to succeed. This could make it worth holding a small position in the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一家毛利率为负且正在消耗现金的早期阶段公司，Rivian 是一项投机性投资。然而，亚马逊和大众汽车的支持，加上其区域架构，给它提供了成功的坚实机会。这可能使得持有少量该股票的仓位变得值得。</p>
</div><h2>The verdict</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论</h2>
</div><p>For risk-tolerant investors who don't mind a little (OK, actually a lot of) volatility, I think Rivian is a stock investors can take a small position and hold onto for the next few years to see how its story plays out. Its technology has drawn in a large investment from Volkswagen, while it also has a pretty big opportunity with Amazon in the years ahead. However, the stock is not for the faint of heart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些能够承受一定（好吧，实际上是很多）波动的风险承受能力强的投资者，我认为 Rivian 是一只可以小规模持有的股票，投资者可以在接下来的几年中持有，看看其故事如何发展。其技术吸引了大众汽车的大额投资，同时在未来几年与亚马逊也有相当大的机会。然而，这只股票并不适合心脏脆弱的人。</p>
</div>

Rivian: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- Rivian Automotive 股票在 2024 年波动较大，年初至今下跌约 35%。
- 销售放缓和负毛利率是卖出理由，混合动力车销售增长快于纯电动车。
- 与亚马逊和大众的合作为 Rivian 提供了资金支持，未来有望实现盈利。

Rivian：是买入、卖出还是持有？