<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -3.46%) 是 2024 年最大的惊喜之一。</p>
<p>由于公司报告了令人失望的季度业绩，包括增长乏力和利润下滑，股票在大部分时间里落后于市场。此外，电动车销售增长放缓，随着早期用户已经购买了电动车，整个行业的势头似乎已经趋于平稳，而电动车股票在今年普遍表现不佳。</p>
<p>截至 10 月 23 日，股票年初至今下跌了 14%，远远落后于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>，后者上涨了 21%，如下图所示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eef406cb486bf0726aeab79e5483f7b9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eef406cb486bf0726aeab79e5483f7b9.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，从那时起，股票表现火爆。公司首先通过其第三季度财报给投资者留下了深刻印象，显示出强劲的利润增长，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克预测，2025 年车辆生产将增长 20% 至 30%，相比 2024 年的平稳增长有了显著改善。</p>
<p>随后，特斯拉在选举后飙升，因为马斯克对特朗普的重大押注似乎得到了回报。投资者似乎对特朗普政府将使特斯拉推出其新款 Cybercab（也称为机器人出租车）感到乐观。特斯拉还计划在 2025 年上半年推出一款价格低于 30,000 美元的 Model Q。正如您从下图中看到的，截至 12 月 17 日，股票在不到两个月的时间里上涨了惊人的 125%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/74102fdd0146fde3c8161d6b2a7b1bad.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/74102fdd0146fde3c8161d6b2a7b1bad.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>正如您所见，特斯拉在新的一年中带来了强劲的势头。那么，股票会继续上涨，还是注定要回调？以下是一些需要关注的事项。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzNjkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzNjkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>高期望值已被充分反映</h2>
<p>特斯拉股票在最近的反弹之前已经很昂贵，但其估值现在似乎与基础业务完全脱节。该股票的市盈率为 200，远高于其任何 “七大奇迹” 同行，后者的市盈率均未超过 51。</p>
<p>在这个价格下，特斯拉作为一家汽车制造商很难满足期望，因为公司每年已经销售近 200 万辆汽车。这些高期望似乎是基于马斯克对公司自动驾驶汽车业务的预测，他表示，如果其机器人出租车市场成功，特斯拉将成为世界上最有价值的公司。考虑到 Cybercab 尚未投入生产，并且公司面临监管障碍，马斯克设想的无人驾驶汽车取代 <strong>优步</strong> 并不是必然的。</p>
<h2>特朗普到底能提供多少帮助？</h2>
<p>自选举以来，特斯拉股票几乎翻倍，马斯克与特朗普的亲密关系是主要原因之一。马斯克在特朗普的竞选中花费了数亿美金，并多次与他同台亮相。他还被任命为新成立的政府效率部的负责人，负责查找政府浪费。</p>
<p>然而，马斯克和特朗普在某些方面并不太合拍。首先，特朗普以支持化石燃料而非绿色能源而闻名，他的政府已经表示将取消 7500 美元的电动车税收抵免。马斯克对此举的影响进行了淡化，称这对电动车初创企业的影响远大于特斯拉，但这可能会将一些电动车的需求转回传统燃油车，尤其是对价格敏感的消费者，这对特斯拉来说是个负面因素。</p>
<p>电动车制造商的真正机会在于自动驾驶，而特朗普政府也表示将放宽对自动驾驶汽车的规定，并建立国家标准，使特斯拉更容易推出没有方向盘的 Cybercab。</p>
<p>然而，安全性将是任何自动驾驶汽车的最终考验，如果这些汽车在尚未准备好的情况下上路，可能会对特斯拉和特朗普政府造成灾难。</p>
<h2>特斯拉在 2025 年值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>特斯拉是一个相对不可预测的公司，其股票 notoriously 波动性很大。</p>
<p>然而，以当前的估值进入新的一年，特斯拉的股票基本上是以完美的价格定价。自动驾驶不太可能产生影响，因为公司并不打算在 2026 年生产 Cybercab，尽管进展的迹象可能会给股票带来提振。</p>
<p>相反，投资者的关注将集中在核心业务、Model Q 车辆以及特朗普政府是否能够在实质上帮助公司上。</p>
<p>考虑到特斯拉的市值已经达到 1.5 万亿美元，市盈率为 200，尽管当前投资者热情高涨，但该股票在明年更可能表现不佳。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>特斯拉的股票在 2024 年经历了显著的波动，最初表现不及大盘，但在强劲的第三季度财报和对 2025 年乐观的生产预测后，股价飙升了 125%。然而，股票的高估值，市盈率达到 200，引发了对能否满足预期的担忧。特朗普政府对特斯拉未来的潜在影响，特别是在自动驾驶汽车和电动车税收抵免方面，仍然不确定。投资者应保持谨慎，因为该股票可能已经被定价为完美，2025 年面临挑战</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -3.46%) has been one of the biggest surprises of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -3.46%) 是 2024 年最大的惊喜之一。</p>
</div><p>The stock lagged the market for much of the year as the company reported disappointing quarterly results, including sluggish growth and falling profits. Additionally, electric vehicle sales growth has slowed as momentum in the sector seems to be plateauing now that early adopters have already purchased an EV, and EV stocks have struggled in general this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于公司报告了令人失望的季度业绩，包括增长乏力和利润下滑，股票在大部分时间里落后于市场。此外，电动车销售增长放缓，随着早期用户已经购买了电动车，整个行业的势头似乎已经趋于平稳，而电动车股票在今年普遍表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>Through Oct. 23, the stock was down 14% year to date, underperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, which had gained 21%, by a wide margin, as the chart below shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 10 月 23 日，股票年初至今下跌了 14%，远远落后于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>，后者上涨了 21%，如下图所示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eef406cb486bf0726aeab79e5483f7b9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eef406cb486bf0726aeab79e5483f7b9.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>However, since then, the stock has been on fire. The company first impressed investors with its third-quarter earnings report, which showed strong profit growth, and CEO Elon Musk predicted that vehicle production would increase by 20% to 30% in 2025, a significant improvement from flat growth in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，从那时起，股票表现火爆。公司首先通过其第三季度财报给投资者留下了深刻印象，显示出强劲的利润增长，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克预测，2025 年车辆生产将增长 20% 至 30%，相比 2024 年的平稳增长有了显著改善。</p>
</div><p>Then, Tesla soared following the election as Musk's big bet on Trump seemed to pay off. Investors seem to be hopeful that the Trump administration will make it easier for Tesla to roll out its new Cybercab, also known as the robotaxi. Tesla is also planning to launch an affordably priced Model Q at under $30,000 in the first half of 2025. As you can see from the chart below, through Dec. 17, the stock is up a whopping 125% in less than two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随后，特斯拉在选举后飙升，因为马斯克对特朗普的重大押注似乎得到了回报。投资者似乎对特朗普政府将使特斯拉推出其新款 Cybercab（也称为机器人出租车）感到乐观。特斯拉还计划在 2025 年上半年推出一款价格低于 30,000 美元的 Model Q。正如您从下图中看到的，截至 12 月 17 日，股票在不到两个月的时间里上涨了惊人的 125%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/74102fdd0146fde3c8161d6b2a7b1bad.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/74102fdd0146fde3c8161d6b2a7b1bad.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>As you can see, Tesla is bringing a lot of momentum in the new year. So, will the stock keep gaining, or is it destined for a pullback? Here are a few things to watch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如您所见，特斯拉在新的一年中带来了强劲的势头。那么，股票会继续上涨，还是注定要回调？以下是一些需要关注的事项。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzNjkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801369%2Ftesla-model-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>High expectations are now baked in</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高期望值已被充分反映</h2>
</div><p>Tesla stock was already expensive before its recent rally, but its valuation now seems to have fully detached from the underlying business. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 200, which is much more expensive than any of its &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; peers, none of which trade at a P/E above 51.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉股票在最近的反弹之前已经很昂贵，但其估值现在似乎与基础业务完全脱节。该股票的市盈率为 200，远高于其任何 “七大奇迹” 同行，后者的市盈率均未超过 51。</p>
</div><p>At that price, it will be difficult for Tesla to meet expectations as a carmaker alone, as the company is already selling nearly 2 million vehicles a year. Those high expectations seemed to be based on Musk's own predictions for the company's autonomous vehicle business, as he said that Tesla would be the most valuable company in the world if its robotaxi marketplace takes off. Considering that the Cybercab hasn't yet gone into production and that there are regulatory hurdles for the company to overcome, it's certainly not guaranteed that its driverless cars will replace <strong>Uber</strong> as Musk has envisioned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这个价格下，特斯拉作为一家汽车制造商很难满足期望，因为公司每年已经销售近 200 万辆汽车。这些高期望似乎是基于马斯克对公司自动驾驶汽车业务的预测，他表示，如果其机器人出租车市场成功，特斯拉将成为世界上最有价值的公司。考虑到 Cybercab 尚未投入生产，并且公司面临监管障碍，马斯克设想的无人驾驶汽车取代 <strong>优步</strong> 并不是必然的。</p>
</div><h2>How much help will Trump really be?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普到底能提供多少帮助？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla stock has nearly doubled since the election, and Musk's chummy relationship with Trump is a major reason why. Musk spent hundreds of millions of dollars on Trump's campaign and appeared on stage with him several times. He's also been tapped to run the new Department of Government Efficiency, in charge of ferreting out government waste.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自选举以来，特斯拉股票几乎翻倍，马斯克与特朗普的亲密关系是主要原因之一。马斯克在特朗普的竞选中花费了数亿美金，并多次与他同台亮相。他还被任命为新成立的政府效率部的负责人，负责查找政府浪费。</p>
</div><p>However, Musk and Trump are unlikely bedfellows in some ways. First, Trump is known to support fossil fuels over green energy, and his administration has already indicated that it will eliminate the $7,500 EV tax credit. Musk has downplayed the effect of such a move, saying it's much worse for EV start-ups than it is for Tesla, but it's likely to shift some demand for EVs back to traditional combustion vehicles for price-sensitive consumers, which would be a negative for Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，马斯克和特朗普在某些方面并不太合拍。首先，特朗普以支持化石燃料而非绿色能源而闻名，他的政府已经表示将取消 7500 美元的电动车税收抵免。马斯克对此举的影响进行了淡化，称这对电动车初创企业的影响远大于特斯拉，但这可能会将一些电动车的需求转回传统燃油车，尤其是对价格敏感的消费者，这对特斯拉来说是个负面因素。</p>
</div><p>The real opportunity for the EV maker is in autonomy, and the Trump administration has also indicated that it would ease rules around self-driving cars and establish a national standard, making it easier for Tesla to roll out the Cybercab, which does not have a steering wheel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动车制造商的真正机会在于自动驾驶，而特朗普政府也表示将放宽对自动驾驶汽车的规定，并建立国家标准，使特斯拉更容易推出没有方向盘的 Cybercab。</p>
</div><p>However, safety will be the ultimate test of any autonomous vehicle, and if the cars are allowed on the road before they're ready, it could be a disaster for both Tesla and the Trump administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，安全性将是任何自动驾驶汽车的最终考验，如果这些汽车在尚未准备好的情况下上路，可能会对特斯拉和特朗普政府造成灾难。</p>
</div><h2>Is Tesla a buy for 2025?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉在 2025 年值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is one of the more unpredictable companies, and its stock is notoriously volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉是一个相对不可预测的公司，其股票 notoriously 波动性很大。</p>
</div><p>However, it's entering the new year essentially priced for perfection at the current valuation. Autonomy is unlikely to have an impact as the company isn't planning on producing the Cybercab in 2026, though signs of progress could give the stock a boost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，以当前的估值进入新的一年，特斯拉的股票基本上是以完美的价格定价。自动驾驶不太可能产生影响，因为公司并不打算在 2026 年生产 Cybercab，尽管进展的迹象可能会给股票带来提振。</p>
</div><p>Instead, investor attention will be on the core business, the Model Q vehicle, and whether the Trump administration will be able to help the company in a material way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，投资者的关注将集中在核心业务、Model Q 车辆以及特朗普政府是否能够在实质上帮助公司上。</p>
</div><p>With Tesla already trading at a market cap of $1.5 trillion and a P/E ratio of 200, the stock seems more likely to underperform than not next year, despite the current investor enthusiasm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到特斯拉的市值已经达到 1.5 万亿美元，市盈率为 200，尽管当前投资者热情高涨，但该股票在明年更可能表现不佳。</p>
</div>

Will Tesla Stock Pop or Drop in 2025?

- 特斯拉股票在 2024 年初表现不佳，年初至今下跌 14%。  
- 随后因第三季度盈利增长和对未来生产的乐观预测，股价反弹 125%。  
- 高估值和政策不确定性使得特斯拉未来表现面临挑战。

特斯拉股票在 2025 年会大涨还是大跌？