<p>在 2024 年上半年股价下跌 6% 后，<strong>PayPal</strong>（PYPL 0.40%）经历了一个艰难的开局，但现在正在回升，以显著的方式赢得了投资者的青睐。这只金融科技股票在过去六个月中飙升了 42%，截至 12 月 18 日，其年初至今的涨幅达 39%，远超更广泛的 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>。</p>
<p>然而，股价仍然比其峰值价格低了令人担忧的 72%。长期投资者可能仍然考虑在 PayPal 中建立头寸。对于 2025 年及以后，这是一只聪明的股票吗？</p>
<h2>市场情绪改善</h2>
<p>PayPal 股价的积极势头始于该公司公布 2024 年第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日）财务业绩时。在这三个月期间，公司总支付量（TPV）实现了两位数的增长，运营利润率因费用控制而扩大。此外，管理层提高了全年调整后利润的指引。</p>
<p>但随后公司公布的第三季度收入低于预期，第四季度的指引也低于市场预测。10 月 29 日，股价在消息公布后立即下跌了 7%。</p>
<p>投资界似乎对这家数字支付巨头过去几个月的混合业绩不以为然，仍然推动股价上涨。值得指出的是，改善的市场情绪对 PayPal 来说是多么重要。</p>
<p>在过去六个月中，股价飙升了 42%。但这主要是由于同一时期市盈率（P/E）扩张了 35%。无论是 PayPal 稳健的财务数据、改善的宏观条件，还是监管放松的可能性，市场对该公司的乐观情绪正在增强。</p>
<h2>PayPal 的韧性</h2>
<p>能够超越过去几年股价表现的投资者不会难以意识到，PayPal 的业务实际上是非常稳固的。该公司在关键指标上继续展现出强劲的表现，表明其运营的健康状况。</p>
<p>第三季度 TPV 同比增长 9%，达到 4226 亿美元。这个数字比 2019 年疫情前的第三季度高出 136%。PayPal 无疑受益于健康危机期间在线购物的普及，但它能够在这些收益的基础上继续发展。</p>
<p>首席执行官 Alex Chriss 一直专注于创建一个更高效的组织。由于成本管理的努力，第三季度运营费用增长了 3%，远低于净收入的 6% 增长，这并未阻止 PayPal 继续在市场营销和产品开发上进行投资。</p>
<p>这些结果体现在 PayPal 的盈利能力上。在 2023 年获得 42 亿美元的自由现金流后，管理层预测今年将产生 60 亿美元。这仍然是一家财务稳健的企业，资产负债表上有 162 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和投资，而债务为 124 亿美元。</p>
<h2>长期思考</h2>
<p>在短短六个月内股价大幅上涨后，投资者自然会想知道是否已经太晚加入 PayPal 的行列。但我敦促你们始终从长远考虑，关注未来五年。</p>
<p>截至目前，股价的市盈率为 20.5。这不仅不到其历史平均倍数近 45 的一半，而且低于更广泛的标准普尔 500 指数。虽然现在的吸引力不如年初，但我仍然认为当前的估值是合理的。</p>
<p>稳定的收入和盈利增长潜力，加上估值扩张的可能性，意味着购买 PayPal 股票的股东在 2025 年及以后有机会获得回报。</p>

PYPL

<p>PayPal 的股票在过去六个月中上涨了 42%，尽管在 2024 年初下跌了 6%。这家金融科技公司报告了总支付量的强劲增长和改善的运营利润率，尽管在最近几个季度的业绩表现不一。投资者依然保持乐观，受到市场情绪改善和 20.5 的有利市盈率的驱动，远低于其历史平均水平。凭借稳健的财务状况和未来增长的潜力，PayPal 在 2025 年及以后仍可能是一个明智的投资选择</p>

<p>After a difficult start to the year that saw shares drop 6% in the first half of 2024, <strong>PayPal</strong>(PYPL 0.40%) is on its way up, winning over investors in remarkable fashion. The fintech stock has soared 42% in the last six months, which puts its year-to-date gain at 39% (as of Dec. 18), well ahead of the broader <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年上半年股价下跌 6% 后，<strong>PayPal</strong>（PYPL 0.40%）经历了一个艰难的开局，但现在正在回升，以显著的方式赢得了投资者的青睐。这只金融科技股票在过去六个月中飙升了 42%，截至 12 月 18 日，其年初至今的涨幅达 39%，远超更广泛的 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>。</p>
</div><p>However, shares are still trading a worrying 72% off their peak price. Long-term investors might still consider initiating a position in PayPal. Is it a smart stock to buy for 2025 and beyond?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股价仍然比其峰值价格低了令人担忧的 72%。长期投资者可能仍然考虑在 PayPal 中建立头寸。对于 2025 年及以后，这是一只聪明的股票吗？</p>
</div><h2>Improving market sentiment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场情绪改善</h2>
</div><p>The positive momentum for PayPal shares started when the business reported financial results for the second quarter of 2024 (ended June 30). During that three-month period, the company posted double-digit growth in total payment volume (TPV), with an expanding operating margin driven by expense controls. What's more, management raised full-year guidance for adjusted profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PayPal 股价的积极势头始于该公司公布 2024 年第二季度（截至 6 月 30 日）财务业绩时。在这三个月期间，公司总支付量（TPV）实现了两位数的增长，运营利润率因费用控制而扩大。此外，管理层提高了全年调整后利润的指引。</p>
</div><p>But then the company reported weaker-than-expected revenue for the third quarter, with fourth-quarter guidance that was below market forecasts. The stock immediately dipped 7% following the news on Oct. 29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随后公司公布的第三季度收入低于预期，第四季度的指引也低于市场预测。10 月 29 日，股价在消息公布后立即下跌了 7%。</p>
</div><p>The investment community appears to have shrugged off what were mixed results from the digital payments giant in the past few months, by still propelling shares higher. It's worth pointing out just how vital improving market sentiment has been for PayPal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资界似乎对这家数字支付巨头过去几个月的混合业绩不以为然，仍然推动股价上涨。值得指出的是，改善的市场情绪对 PayPal 来说是多么重要。</p>
</div><p>The stock has soared 42% in the past six months. But this was driven primarily by a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio that expanded by 35% during that same period of time. Whether it's a combination of PayPal's solid financial numbers, improving macro conditions, and/or the possibility of easing regulations, the market has become more optimistic about the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去六个月中，股价飙升了 42%。但这主要是由于同一时期市盈率（P/E）扩张了 35%。无论是 PayPal 稳健的财务数据、改善的宏观条件，还是监管放松的可能性，市场对该公司的乐观情绪正在增强。</p>
</div><h2>PayPal's resilience</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>PayPal 的韧性</h2>
</div><p>Investors who are able to look past the stock's performance over the past few years won't struggle to realize that PayPal's business is actually on very solid footing. The company continues to show strength in key metrics, indicating the health of its operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能够超越过去几年股价表现的投资者不会难以意识到，PayPal 的业务实际上是非常稳固的。该公司在关键指标上继续展现出强劲的表现，表明其运营的健康状况。</p>
</div><p>TPV increased 9% year over year to $422.6 billion in Q3. That figure was 136% higher than in pre-pandemic Q3 2019. PayPal certainly benefited from the popularity of online shopping during the health crisis, but it has been able to build on top of these gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三季度 TPV 同比增长 9%，达到 4226 亿美元。这个数字比 2019 年疫情前的第三季度高出 136%。PayPal 无疑受益于健康危机期间在线购物的普及，但它能够在这些收益的基础上继续发展。</p>
</div><p>CEO Alex Chriss has been hyper-focused on creating a more efficient organization. Operating expenses increased by 3% in Q3, well below the 6% gain of net revenue, thanks to cost management efforts that haven't prevented PayPal from still investing in marketing and product development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官 Alex Chriss 一直专注于创建一个更高效的组织。由于成本管理的努力，第三季度运营费用增长了 3%，远低于净收入的 6% 增长，这并未阻止 PayPal 继续在市场营销和产品开发上进行投资。</p>
</div><p>The results are showing up in PayPal's profitability. After raking in $4.2 billion in free cash flow in 2023, executives predict $6 billion will be generated this year. This remains a financially sound enterprise, with $16.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments on the balance sheet, compared to $12.4 billion in debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些结果体现在 PayPal 的盈利能力上。在 2023 年获得 42 亿美元的自由现金流后，管理层预测今年将产生 60 亿美元。这仍然是一家财务稳健的企业，资产负债表上有 162 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和投资，而债务为 124 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Think long term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>长期思考</h2>
</div><p>After that massive rise in the stock price in just six months, investors are right to wonder if it's too late to hop on the PayPal bandwagon. But I urge you to always think long term, with a focus on the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短短六个月内股价大幅上涨后，投资者自然会想知道是否已经太晚加入 PayPal 的行列。但我敦促你们始终从长远考虑，关注未来五年。</p>
</div><p>As of this writing, shares trade at a P/E ratio of 20.5. That's not only less than half their average historical multiple of nearly 45, it's a discount to the broader S&amp;P 500. While it's not as attractive as it was earlier in the year, I still believe the current valuation is reasonable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，股价的市盈率为 20.5。这不仅不到其历史平均倍数近 45 的一半，而且低于更广泛的标准普尔 500 指数。虽然现在的吸引力不如年初，但我仍然认为当前的估值是合理的。</p>
</div><p>The potential for steady revenue and earnings growth, coupled with the possibility that the valuation will expand, mean that shareholders who buy PayPal stock have a chance to be rewarded in 2025 and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稳定的收入和盈利增长潜力，加上估值扩张的可能性，意味着购买 PayPal 股票的股东在 2025 年及以后有机会获得回报。</p>
</div>

PayPal Is Up 42% in 6 Months: Is It a Smart Stock to Buy for 2025 and Beyond?

- PayPal 股价在 2024 年上半年下跌 6% 后，过去六个月上涨 42%。  
- 第二季度财报显示支付总量增长，管理层上调全年利润预期。  
- 尽管第三季度收入低于预期，市场情绪改善推动股价上涨，长期投资者可考虑入场。

Paypal 在 6 个月内上涨了 42%：这是一只适合在 2025 年及以后购买的明智股票吗？