<p>在分析 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.08%）时，您可能会原谅一些投资者将其视为被高估的股票。自 2022 年熊市低点以来，该股上涨了约 12 倍。</p>
<p>其估值和增长率引发了人们的担忧，认为它飞得太接近太阳，一旦翅膀融化就会坠毁。</p>
<p>即使是其最热心的支持者也会承认，这并不是一只便宜的半导体股票。不过，称其为 “太接近太阳” 可能是夸大其词，原因如下。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 革命</h2>
<p>在 2023 年初升级版 ChatGPT 发布时，Nvidia 改变了半导体行业的面貌。当观察者看到 AI 加速器推动了升级后的性能时，对这些 AI 芯片的需求飙升，而 Nvidia 是最能满足这种需求的公司。</p>
<p>因此，这一产品从根本上改变了 Nvidia。三年前，在 2022 财年第三季度，设计 AI 加速器的数据中心部门贡献的收入份额小于 Nvidia 原有的业务——游戏。</p>
<p>然而，到 2025 财年第三季度（截至 10 月 27 日），数据中心部门的收入占比达到了 88%！</p>
<p>事实上，<strong>AMD</strong>、<strong>Intel</strong> 和 <strong>Qualcomm</strong> 等竞争对手都在努力缩小竞争差距。由于对 AI 加速器的需求超过供应，竞争对手们有了市场。然而，Nvidia 的创新使其在这一领域保持了领先地位。凭借这种保持领先的能力，其竞争对手在短期内不太可能追赶上来。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票的麻烦迹象</h2>
<p>当您更仔细地查看一些结果时，您可能会认为 Nvidia 飞得太接近太阳。</p>
<p>乍一看，它们显示出惊人的增长，2025 财年第三季度的收入为 350 亿美元，同比增长 94%。随着这一增长，其净收入为 190 亿美元，同比增长 109%。</p>
<p>投资者应该记住，大公司由于大数法则往往增长较慢。因此，尽管 Nvidia 的市值达到 3.2 万亿美元，但仍能如此快速增长，实属令人印象深刻。</p>
<p>不过，在 2025 财年的前三个季度，其收入增长了 135%。这导致净收入增长了 190%，表明增长放缓已经开始。</p>
<p>即使是规模远小于 Nvidia 的公司，三位数的收入增长也是不可持续的。然而，当这些增长不可避免地放缓时，投资者往往会惩罚股票，这可能正在发生在 Nvidia 身上。</p>
<p>而其估值可能会加剧这种下滑。对其股票的表面观察可能并未显示出任何被高估的迹象，因为其市盈率为 52。此外，其市销率（P/S）为 29，可能偏高，但对于一只高飞的科技股来说并不罕见。</p>
<p>但其市价与账面价值比率（P/BV）无疑将该股票置于泡沫区域。目前，Nvidia 的交易账面价值倍数为 49，远高于 <strong>AMD</strong> 和其主要制造商 <strong>台积电</strong> 的 P/BV 比率，后者分别为 3.6 倍和 8.3 倍。这一巨大的溢价可能促使更多投资者在其继续主导 AI 加速器市场的同时出售该股票。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 是否飞得太接近太阳？</h2>
<p>尽管 Nvidia 可能在短期内感受到一些压力，但它可能并没有太接近太阳。</p>
<p>考虑到收入增长放缓和 49 的 P/BV，股票价格无疑是超前的。这可能导致短期内的挣扎或直接下滑，甚至可能超出短期。</p>
<p>然而，其巨大的增长应该会随着时间的推移提高 Nvidia 的 “耐热性”。当其销售和账面价值倍数降至与其增长和收益更为一致的水平时，该公司将能够在更高的高度飞行——可能比现在更高。</p>
<p>因此，即使 Nvidia 目前看起来太接近太阳，投资者也不应期望这种情况在长期内持续。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票自 2022 年以来飙升了 12 倍，这引发了对其估值过高的担忧，因为它现在严重依赖人工智能芯片的需求，这占其收入的 88%。尽管增长令人印象深刻，但放缓的迹象显而易见，收入增长率从 135% 下降到更低的水平。其高达 49 的市净率暗示着潜在的估值过高，可能导致短期内的挣扎。然而，英伟达在人工智能加速器方面的创新可能会维持其长期增长，使其在半导体行业保持竞争优势</p>

<p>When analyzing <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.08%), you can probably forgive some investors for writing it off as overvalued. The stock is up around 12-fold since its bear market low in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在分析 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.08%）时，您可能会原谅一些投资者将其视为被高估的股票。自 2022 年熊市低点以来，该股上涨了约 12 倍。</p>
</div><p>Its valuation and growth rate stoke fears that it's flying too close to the sun and will crash when its wings melt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其估值和增长率引发了人们的担忧，认为它飞得太接近太阳，一旦翅膀融化就会坠毁。</p>
</div><p>Even its most ardent bulls will concede it is not a cheap semiconductor stock. Still, saying it's &#34;too close to the sun&#34; is likely an exaggeration, and here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是其最热心的支持者也会承认，这并不是一只便宜的半导体股票。不过，称其为 “太接近太阳” 可能是夸大其词，原因如下。</p>
</div><h2>The Nvidia revolution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 革命</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia changed the face of the semiconductor industry upon the release of an upgraded version of ChatGPT in early 2023. When observers saw that AI accelerators powered the upgraded performance, demand for these AI chips went into the stratosphere, and Nvidia was the company best prepared to meet the demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年初升级版 ChatGPT 发布时，Nvidia 改变了半导体行业的面貌。当观察者看到 AI 加速器推动了升级后的性能时，对这些 AI 芯片的需求飙升，而 Nvidia 是最能满足这种需求的公司。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, this product has fundamentally changed Nvidia. Three years ago, in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, the data center segment, which designs AI accelerators, contributed a smaller share of revenue than Nvidia's original business, gaming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，这一产品从根本上改变了 Nvidia。三年前，在 2022 财年第三季度，设计 AI 加速器的数据中心部门贡献的收入份额小于 Nvidia 原有的业务——游戏。</p>
</div><p>However, by the third quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended Oct. 27), the data center segment accounted for 88% of revenue!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，到 2025 财年第三季度（截至 10 月 27 日），数据中心部门的收入占比达到了 88%！</p>
</div><p>Indeed, competitors such as <strong>AMD</strong>, <strong>Intel</strong>, and <strong>Qualcomm</strong> have scrambled to close the competitive gap. Since demand for AI accelerators exceeds the supply, the competitors have a market. Nonetheless, Nvidia's innovation has kept it firmly in the lead in this area. With this ability to stay ahead, it is unlikely any of its competitors will catch up anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，<strong>AMD</strong>、<strong>Intel</strong> 和 <strong>Qualcomm</strong> 等竞争对手都在努力缩小竞争差距。由于对 AI 加速器的需求超过供应，竞争对手们有了市场。然而，Nvidia 的创新使其在这一领域保持了领先地位。凭借这种保持领先的能力，其竞争对手在短期内不太可能追赶上来。</p>
</div><h2>Signs of trouble for Nvidia stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票的麻烦迹象</h2>
</div><p>You might assume Nvidia has flown too close to the sun when looking at some of its results more closely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当您更仔细地查看一些结果时，您可能会认为 Nvidia 飞得太接近太阳。</p>
</div><p>At first glance, they point to phenomenal growth, with its fiscal third-quarter revenue of $35 billion rising 94% year over year. With that increase, its net income of $19 billion was up 109% over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，它们显示出惊人的增长，2025 财年第三季度的收入为 350 亿美元，同比增长 94%。随着这一增长，其净收入为 190 亿美元，同比增长 109%。</p>
</div><p>Investors should remember that large companies tend to grow more slowly due to the law of large numbers. Hence, the fact that Nvidia can grow so much despite its $3.2 trillion market cap is nothing short of impressive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该记住，大公司由于大数法则往往增长较慢。因此，尽管 Nvidia 的市值达到 3.2 万亿美元，但仍能如此快速增长，实属令人印象深刻。</p>
</div><p>Still, over the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, its revenue grew 135%. That led to a rise in net income of 190%, indicating a slowdown has begun.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，在 2025 财年的前三个季度，其收入增长了 135%。这导致净收入增长了 190%，表明增长放缓已经开始。</p>
</div><p>Triple-digit revenue growth is unsustainable even for companies that are a fraction of Nvidia's size. Still, investors tend to punish stocks when those increases inevitably slow, which may be happening to Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是规模远小于 Nvidia 的公司，三位数的收入增长也是不可持续的。然而，当这些增长不可避免地放缓时，投资者往往会惩罚股票，这可能正在发生在 Nvidia 身上。</p>
</div><p>And its valuation could contribute to the decline. A superficial look at its stock may not indicate any overvaluation since its trailing P/E is 52. Also, its price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 29 is probably elevated but not unheard of for a high-flying tech stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而其估值可能会加剧这种下滑。对其股票的表面观察可能并未显示出任何被高估的迹象，因为其市盈率为 52。此外，其市销率（P/S）为 29，可能偏高，但对于一只高飞的科技股来说并不罕见。</p>
</div><p>But its ratio of price to book value (P/BV) arguably places the stock in bubble territory. Currently, Nvidia trades at a book value multiple of 49, far above the P/BV ratios of AMD and its leading manufacturer, <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor</strong>, which sell at 3.6 times and 8.3 times book value, respectively. That massive premium could prompt more investors to sell the stock even as it continues its dominance with AI accelerators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但其市价与账面价值比率（P/BV）无疑将该股票置于泡沫区域。目前，Nvidia 的交易账面价值倍数为 49，远高于 <strong>AMD</strong> 和其主要制造商 <strong>台积电</strong> 的 P/BV 比率，后者分别为 3.6 倍和 8.3 倍。这一巨大的溢价可能促使更多投资者在其继续主导 AI 加速器市场的同时出售该股票。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia flying too close to the sun?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 是否飞得太接近太阳？</h2>
</div><p>Although Nvidia is likely to feel some heat in the near term, it is likely not too close to the sun.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Nvidia 可能在短期内感受到一些压力，但它可能并没有太接近太阳。</p>
</div><p>Given the slowing revenue growth and the 49 P/BV, the price of the stock is undoubtedly ahead of itself. This could lead to struggles or outright declines in the short term and possibly beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到收入增长放缓和 49 的 P/BV，股票价格无疑是超前的。这可能导致短期内的挣扎或直接下滑，甚至可能超出短期。</p>
</div><p>However, its massive growth should increase Nvidia's &#34;heat resistance&#34; over time. When its sales and book value multiples fall to a level that is more in line with its growth and earnings, the company will be able to fly at higher altitudes -- likely higher than it does now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，其巨大的增长应该会随着时间的推移提高 Nvidia 的 “耐热性”。当其销售和账面价值倍数降至与其增长和收益更为一致的水平时，该公司将能够在更高的高度飞行——可能比现在更高。</p>
</div><p>Hence, even if Nvidia appears too close to the sun right now, investors should not expect that to be the case over the longer term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使 Nvidia 目前看起来太接近太阳，投资者也不应期望这种情况在长期内持续。</p>
</div>

Has Artificial Intelligence (AI) Darling Nvidia Finally Flown Too Close to the Sun?

- Nvidia 的股价自 2022 年熊市低点上涨约 12 倍，市值达到 0.2 万亿。  
- 数据中心业务在 2025 财年第三季度占收入的 88%，显示出 AI 芯片的强劲需求。  
- 尽管短期内可能面临增长放缓，Nvidia 的创新能力使其在竞争中保持领先。  

人工智能（AI）宠儿英伟达是否终于飞得太接近太阳了？