<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.73%）是历史上表现最好的股票之一，自 1997 年上市以来上涨超过 200,000%。当时的 1,000 美元投资今天将变成超过 200 万美元。</p>
<p>对于早期持有该股票的投资者来说，亚马逊带来了改变人生的回报。它通过开创并确立自己在电子商务和云计算这两个庞大行业中的领导地位，实现了这一点，并利用这一优势支持了高利润业务的增长，如广告、第三方市场和其云基础设施服务——亚马逊网络服务。</p>
<p>然而，过去的表现并不能保证未来在股市上的回报。亚马逊是否仍然有潜力让你一生受益？让我们来调查一下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE3MTIvYW1hem9uLXZhbi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE3MTIvYW1hem9uLXZhbi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的当前前景</h2>
<p>在其几乎所有的历史中，亚马逊的收入每季度都以 20% 或更高的速度增长，像时钟一样规律。然而，随着公司的成熟，这些日子似乎终于结束了。亚马逊现在是全球第二大公司，仅次于 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，预计今年将产生 6380 亿美元的收入。</p>
<p>在第三季度，亚马逊的收入增长了 11%，达到 158.9 亿美元，其中超过一半的收入来自其北美部门，主要由电子商务构成。</p>
<p>自疫情结束以来，亚马逊的收入增长模式稳定在约 10%，公司已从关注收入增长转向扩大利润率。例如，它在亚马逊 Prime 中增加了广告，并对第三方卖家收取新费用，进一步巩固了其在已占主导地位市场的控制力。它还缩减了全球扩张，现在在国际市场上实现了盈利。</p>
<p>亚马逊商业模式的成功之处在于，它利用低利润业务，如其第一方电子商务和 Prime 会员计划，来扩大客户基础并与消费者建立信任。在此基础上，公司能够通过其第三方市场、AWS 和广告推动利润增长，这些业务在第一方电子商务业务成功之前是不存在的。</p>
<p>亚马逊似乎有望实现更多的底线增长，但公司也专注于新业务，特别是人工智能。它已投资 80 亿美元于 Anthropic，这是一家以 Claude 为人知的人工智能初创公司，其 AI 聊天机器人与 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 竞争。公司还进行了其他投资，如收购自动驾驶技术公司 Zoox。</p>
<p>该公司在人工智能领域的地位似乎不确定。它正在开发用于训练和推理的芯片，称为 Trainium 和 Inferentia，并为 AI 工作负载提供名为亚马逊 Bedrock 的托管服务。然而，亚马逊的人工智能战略并不像许多 “七大巨头” 同行那样引人注目，其中一些似乎在 ChatGPT 推出之前就已为人工智能做好了准备。</p>
<h2>亚马逊能否带来巨额回报？</h2>
<p>亚马逊与其早期历史中的公司不同，现在的市值超过 2 万亿美元。在这个估值下，股票开始面临大数法则的问题。</p>
<p>如果亚马逊的股票从这里翻倍，它的市值将需要从 2.3 万亿美元增长到 4.6 万亿美元，这并不是一件容易的事情。相比之下，股票从 500 亿美元翻倍到 1000 亿美元要容易得多。</p>
<p>在其高企的市值和放缓的增长率之间，亚马逊在这一点上似乎不太可能带来改变人生的回报。这并不意味着亚马逊不值得拥有。考虑到其众多竞争优势，该股票仍然看起来是超越市场的良好选择。</p>
<p>但如果你在寻找有潜力成为十倍股的股票，最好还是去别处找。一个增长速度更快的小公司将更有可能产生改变人生的回报。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊（AMZN）自上市以来交出了显著的回报，但其增长在疫情后已放缓至约 10%。该公司正专注于利润扩张和新业务，包括人工智能，但由于其庞大的市值，面临挑战。尽管亚马逊仍然是一个强劲的投资选择，但可能无法像过去那样提供改变生活的回报。寻求显著增长的投资者可能需要考虑具有更高增长潜力的小型公司</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.73%) is one of the best-performing stocks of all time, up more than 200,000% since its IPO in 1997. A $1,000 investment back then would have turned into more than $2 million today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.73%）是历史上表现最好的股票之一，自 1997 年上市以来上涨超过 200,000%。当时的 1,000 美元投资今天将变成超过 200 万美元。</p>
</div><p>For early investors who held the stock, Amazon has delivered life-changing returns. It's done so by pioneering and establishing itself as a leader in two massive industries, e-commerce and cloud computing, and it has used that to support the growth of high-margin businesses like advertising, its third-party marketplace, and its cloud infrastructure service, Amazon Web Services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于早期持有该股票的投资者来说，亚马逊带来了改变人生的回报。它通过开创并确立自己在电子商务和云计算这两个庞大行业中的领导地位，实现了这一点，并利用这一优势支持了高利润业务的增长，如广告、第三方市场和其云基础设施服务——亚马逊网络服务。</p>
</div><p>However, past performance doesn't guarantee future returns on the stock market. Does Amazon still have the potential to set you up for life? Let's investigate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，过去的表现并不能保证未来在股市上的回报。亚马逊是否仍然有潜力让你一生受益？让我们来调查一下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE3MTIvYW1hem9uLXZhbi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801712%2Famazon-van.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's current prospects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的当前前景</h2>
</div><p>For nearly all of its history, Amazon grew its revenue by 20% or more every quarter like clockwork. However, those days seem to have finally come to an end as the company has matured. Amazon is now the second-biggest company in the world by revenue behind only <strong>Walmart</strong>, and it's on track to generate $638 billion this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其几乎所有的历史中，亚马逊的收入每季度都以 20% 或更高的速度增长，像时钟一样规律。然而，随着公司的成熟，这些日子似乎终于结束了。亚马逊现在是全球第二大公司，仅次于 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，预计今年将产生 6380 亿美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>In the third quarter, Amazon's revenue rose 11% to $158.9 million, with more than half of its revenue coming from its North America segment, which is primarily made up of e-commerce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第三季度，亚马逊的收入增长了 11%，达到 158.9 亿美元，其中超过一半的收入来自其北美部门，主要由电子商务构成。</p>
</div><p>Amazon settled into a pattern of revenue growth of around 10% since the end of the pandemic, and the company has shifted from a focus on revenue growth to instead expanding margins. For example, it's added advertising to Amazon Prime and added new fees on its third-party sellers, tightening its grip over a market it already dominates. It also scaled back its global expansion and is now turning a profit in international markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自疫情结束以来，亚马逊的收入增长模式稳定在约 10%，公司已从关注收入增长转向扩大利润率。例如，它在亚马逊 Prime 中增加了广告，并对第三方卖家收取新费用，进一步巩固了其在已占主导地位市场的控制力。它还缩减了全球扩张，现在在国际市场上实现了盈利。</p>
</div><p>What works so well about Amazon's business model is that it's used low-margin businesses like its first-party e-commerce and its Prime membership program to grow its customer base and establish trust with consumers. From there, the company has been able to drive margin growth through its third-party marketplace, AWS, and advertising, all businesses that wouldn't exist without the success of the first-party e-commerce business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊商业模式的成功之处在于，它利用低利润业务，如其第一方电子商务和 Prime 会员计划，来扩大客户基础并与消费者建立信任。在此基础上，公司能够通过其第三方市场、AWS 和广告推动利润增长，这些业务在第一方电子商务业务成功之前是不存在的。</p>
</div><p>Amazon seems likely to generate more bottom-line growth, but the company is also focused on new businesses, in particular AI. It has invested $8 billion in Anthropic, an AI start-up known for Claude, its AI chatbot that competes with OpenAI's ChatGPT. The company has made other investments like its acquisition of autonomous vehicle technology company Zoox.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊似乎有望实现更多的底线增长，但公司也专注于新业务，特别是人工智能。它已投资 80 亿美元于 Anthropic，这是一家以 Claude 为人知的人工智能初创公司，其 AI 聊天机器人与 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 竞争。公司还进行了其他投资，如收购自动驾驶技术公司 Zoox。</p>
</div><p>The company's position in AI seems uncertain. It's developing its chips for training and inference, called Trainium and Inferentia, and it hosts a managed service for AI workloads called Amazon Bedrock. However, Amazon's AI strategy is not as compelling as many of its &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; peers', some of whom seem to have been preparing for AI before the launch of ChatGPT.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司在人工智能领域的地位似乎不确定。它正在开发用于训练和推理的芯片，称为 Trainium 和 Inferentia，并为 AI 工作负载提供名为亚马逊 Bedrock 的托管服务。然而，亚马逊的人工智能战略并不像许多 “七大巨头” 同行那样引人注目，其中一些似乎在 ChatGPT 推出之前就已为人工智能做好了准备。</p>
</div><h2>Can Amazon deliver monster returns?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊能否带来巨额回报？</h2>
</div><p>Amazon is a different company than it was earlier in its history, and its market cap now tops $2 trillion. At that valuation, the stock is starting to run into the law of large numbers problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊与其早期历史中的公司不同，现在的市值超过 2 万亿美元。在这个估值下，股票开始面临大数法则的问题。</p>
</div><p>If Amazon stock were to double from here, it would have to grow its market cap from $2.3 billion to $4.6 billion, which is not an easy feat. By comparison, it's much easier for a stock to double from, say, $50 billion to $100 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果亚马逊的股票从这里翻倍，它的市值将需要从 2.3 万亿美元增长到 4.6 万亿美元，这并不是一件容易的事情。相比之下，股票从 500 亿美元翻倍到 1000 亿美元要容易得多。</p>
</div><p>Between its sky-high market cap and its slowing growth rate, Amazon seems unlikely to deliver life-changing returns at this point. That doesn't mean that Amazon isn't worth owning. The stock still looks like a good bet to outperform the market, given its myriad competitive advantages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其高企的市值和放缓的增长率之间，亚马逊在这一点上似乎不太可能带来改变人生的回报。这并不意味着亚马逊不值得拥有。考虑到其众多竞争优势，该股票仍然看起来是超越市场的良好选择。</p>
</div><p>But if you're looking for a stock with the potential to be a 10-bagger, you're better off looking somewhere else. A smaller company with a faster growth rate will have a better chance of generating life-changing returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你在寻找有潜力成为十倍股的股票，最好还是去别处找。一个增长速度更快的小公司将更有可能产生改变人生的回报。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Amazon Stock Today Set You Up Life?

- 亚马逊自 1997 年 IPO 以来股价上涨超过 200,000%。
- 目前亚马逊的收入增长已放缓至约 10%，并专注于扩大利润率。
- 尽管亚马逊仍具竞争优势，但未来实现大幅回报的可能性较小。

今天购买亚马逊股票能让你一生无忧吗？