<p>在零售领域的两大巨头，<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.73%) 和 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>(WMT -1.24%) 在 2024 年都表现强劲。然而，沃尔玛的股票在今年表现更为突出，截至目前上涨近 80%，而亚马逊的股票回报约为 47%。</p>
<p>随着日历即将翻到 2025 年，让我们看看哪只股票在明年更有可能表现优异。</p>
<h2>业务转型</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，亚马逊多年来对沃尔玛产生了重大影响。其在线零售平台和物流网络给沃尔玛带来了生存挑战，促使后者转型为美国最大的杂货店。实际上，沃尔玛现在占美国所有杂货销售的四分之一以上。</p>
<p>沃尔玛的规模和采购能力使其能够为客户提供最佳价格。考虑到过去几年高通胀的环境，这不仅与沃尔玛的核心客户群产生共鸣，还帮助其吸引了更多富裕客户。</p>
<p>与此同时，沃尔玛仍然拥有庞大的实体店面，90% 的美国人口在 10 英里内就有一家沃尔玛商店。结合无处不在的优势和日益增加的后台自动化，该公司能够通过其 Walmart+ 会员提供免费的当日送达服务，进一步增加便利性并吸引客户。在某些地点，它甚至提供上门送货服务。</p>
<p>所有这些也有助于推动其一般商品类别的增长。在上个季度，尽管其他一些一般商品零售商如 <strong>塔吉特</strong> 面临困难，沃尔玛在家庭科技、玩具和季节性装饰等类别中表现强劲。</p>
<p>该公司还积极发展数字广告，通过其 Walmart Connect 广告业务为品牌提供在线和离线的营销解决方案。在上个季度，它表示广告和会员服务帮助其实现了一半的营业收入增长。</p>
<p>总体而言，沃尔玛上个季度的收入增长了 5.5%，营业收入增长了 8%，调整后的每股收益 (EPS) 增长了 14%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE2NjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQzMjM1MTg2MS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE2NjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQzMjM1MTg2MS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>尽管如此，沃尔玛的成功并没有阻碍亚马逊的零售增长。这家在线零售巨头在上个季度的北美零售部门收入增长了 9%，北美营业收入增长了 33%。与沃尔玛一样，亚马逊的数字广告增长也很强劲，增长了 19%，得益于其赞助广告业务。</p>
<p>亚马逊也在食品杂货业务中，拥有 Amazon Fresh 和 Whole Foods，尽管这些对亚马逊来说并不像食品杂货销售对沃尔玛那么重要。与此同时，亚马逊似乎准备利用行业的困境，进军药品业务，因为它已开始在几个主要城市提供当日药品服务。</p>
<p>多年来，亚马逊也在不断转型，现在远不止是一个在线零售商。它拥有一个受欢迎的流媒体服务 Prime Video，但公司的最大利润来源是其 AWS 云计算业务。该部门上个季度的收入增长了 19%，营业收入飙升 49%，达到 104 亿美元。相比之下，北美零售部门的营业收入为 57 亿美元，国际零售部门为 13 亿美元。</p>
<p>不足为奇的是，亚马逊正在转向人工智能 (AI) 以推动收入增长和提高盈利能力。在云计算方面，它通过其 SageMaker 平台帮助客户创建自己的 AI 应用程序，同时通过其 Bedrock 平台提供自身和 AI 初创公司的基础大型语言模型 (LLMs)。它还希望通过使用 AI 找到最佳路线来节省物流成本。并且它正在利用 AI 使第三方卖家更容易在其网站上列出商品，并提供更好的产品信息和推荐。</p>
<h2>估值与判断</h2>
<p>今年，亚马逊与沃尔玛之间的传统估值差距大幅缩小。亚马逊目前的前瞻市盈率 (P/E) 为 36，而沃尔玛的市盈率为 34：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaeb1d7a5e3b9a2421dbb5960bddfcd3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaeb1d7a5e3b9a2421dbb5960bddfcd3.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率（前瞻 1 年）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>最近，亚马逊的收入增长速度快于沃尔玛（上个季度为 11%，而沃尔玛为 5.5%），尽管它在追逐 AI 机会方面的资本支出很高。</p>
<p>这两家公司多年来都展现了适应和创新的能力，这应该使它们的股票成为长期赢家。然而，考虑到两者之间的适度估值差距、更高的收入增长以及面临的 AI 机会，我更倾向于亚马逊。</p>

亚马逊

沃尔玛

<p>亚马逊和沃尔玛在 2024 年均表现良好，沃尔玛的股票上涨近 80%，而亚马逊上涨 47%。沃尔玛已转型为领先的食品杂货零售商，利用其规模和自动化提升客户便利性。与此同时，亚马逊在零售和云计算领域持续增长，重点关注人工智能。尽管估值差距在缩小，但亚马逊更高的收入增长和人工智能潜力使其成为 2025 年的首选股票</p>

<p>A pair of behemoths in the retail space, both <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.73%) and <strong>Walmart</strong>(WMT -1.24%) have been strong winners in 2024. However, it's Walmart's stock that has been the bigger winner this year, up nearly 80% year to date as of this writing compared to about a 47% return for Amazon's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在零售领域的两大巨头，<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.73%) 和 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>(WMT -1.24%) 在 2024 年都表现强劲。然而，沃尔玛的股票在今年表现更为突出，截至目前上涨近 80%，而亚马逊的股票回报约为 47%。</p>
</div><p>With the calendar soon set to flip over to 2025, let's see which stock looks best positioned to outperform next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着日历即将翻到 2025 年，让我们看看哪只股票在明年更有可能表现优异。</p>
</div><h2>Business transformations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>业务转型</h2>
</div><p>There's no doubt that Amazon has had a major influence on Walmart over the years. Its online retail platform and logistics network created an existential challenge for Walmart that led the latter company to transform itself into the largest grocery store in the country. In fact, Walmart now accounts for more than a quarter of all grocery sales in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，亚马逊多年来对沃尔玛产生了重大影响。其在线零售平台和物流网络给沃尔玛带来了生存挑战，促使后者转型为美国最大的杂货店。实际上，沃尔玛现在占美国所有杂货销售的四分之一以上。</p>
</div><p>Walmart's scale and buying power have enabled it to offer its customers the best prices. Given the high inflationary environment of the past few years, this has not only resonated with Walmart's core customer base, but it helped it draw in more affluent customers as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛的规模和采购能力使其能够为客户提供最佳价格。考虑到过去几年高通胀的环境，这不仅与沃尔玛的核心客户群产生共鸣，还帮助其吸引了更多富裕客户。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Walmart continues to have a massive physical footprint, to the point where 90% of the U.S. population is within 10 miles of one of its stores. Combining ubiquity with increasing behind-the-scenes automation, the company has been able to offer free same-day delivery through its Walmart+ membership, further adding convenience and attracting customers. In some locations, it even offers in-home deliveries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，沃尔玛仍然拥有庞大的实体店面，90% 的美国人口在 10 英里内就有一家沃尔玛商店。结合无处不在的优势和日益增加的后台自动化，该公司能够通过其 Walmart+ 会员提供免费的当日送达服务，进一步增加便利性并吸引客户。在某些地点，它甚至提供上门送货服务。</p>
</div><p>All of this also helps power growth for its general merchandise categories. Last quarter, while some other general-merchandise retailers such as <strong>Target</strong> were struggling, Walmart noted strength in categories such as in-home tech, toys, and seasonal decor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些也有助于推动其一般商品类别的增长。在上个季度，尽管其他一些一般商品零售商如 <strong>塔吉特</strong> 面临困难，沃尔玛在家庭科技、玩具和季节性装饰等类别中表现强劲。</p>
</div><p>The company has also leaned into digital advertising with its Walmart Connect ad business, which offers both online and offline marketing solutions for brands. Last quarter, it said advertising and memberships helped account for half of the operating income gains it saw.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司还积极发展数字广告，通过其 Walmart Connect 广告业务为品牌提供在线和离线的营销解决方案。在上个季度，它表示广告和会员服务帮助其实现了一半的营业收入增长。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Walmart grew revenue by 5.5% last quarter, operating income by 8%, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 14%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，沃尔玛上个季度的收入增长了 5.5%，营业收入增长了 8%，调整后的每股收益 (EPS) 增长了 14%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE2NjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQzMjM1MTg2MS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801667%2Fgettyimages-1432351861.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>That said, Walmart's success has not hampered Amazon's retail growth. The online retail giant saw a 9% increase in revenue in its North American retail segment last quarter, and a 33% jump in North American operating income. Like Walmart, Amazon is seeing strong digital ad growth, which was up 19%, helped by its sponsored-ad business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，沃尔玛的成功并没有阻碍亚马逊的零售增长。这家在线零售巨头在上个季度的北美零售部门收入增长了 9%，北美营业收入增长了 33%。与沃尔玛一样，亚马逊的数字广告增长也很强劲，增长了 19%，得益于其赞助广告业务。</p>
</div><p>It's also in the grocery business, with Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods, though they aren't as important to Amazon as grocery sales are to Walmart. Meanwhile, Amazon appears primed to take advantage of industry struggles and go after the pharmacy business, as it's started offering same-day pharmacy services in several major cities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊也在食品杂货业务中，拥有 Amazon Fresh 和 Whole Foods，尽管这些对亚马逊来说并不像食品杂货销售对沃尔玛那么重要。与此同时，亚马逊似乎准备利用行业的困境，进军药品业务，因为它已开始在几个主要城市提供当日药品服务。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has transformed its business over the years as well and is now much more than just an online retailer. It owns a popular streaming service in Prime Video, but the company's biggest profit driver is its AWS cloud computing business. This segment grew its revenue by 19% last quarter, while its operating income soared 49% to $10.4 billion. This compares to operating income of $5.7 billion for the North American retail segment and $1.3 billion for the international retail segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，亚马逊也在不断转型，现在远不止是一个在线零售商。它拥有一个受欢迎的流媒体服务 Prime Video，但公司的最大利润来源是其 AWS 云计算业务。该部门上个季度的收入增长了 19%，营业收入飙升 49%，达到 104 亿美元。相比之下，北美零售部门的营业收入为 57 亿美元，国际零售部门为 13 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Not surprisingly, Amazon is turning toward artificial intelligence (AI) to help drive revenue growth and improve profitability. In cloud computing, it's helping customers create their own AI applications through its SageMaker platform, while offering foundational large language models (LLMs) from both itself and AI start-ups with its Bedrock platform. It's also looking to save logistic costs by using AI to find the best routes. And it's using AI to make it easier for third-party sellers to list items on its site, and to help with better product information and recommendations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不足为奇的是，亚马逊正在转向人工智能 (AI) 以推动收入增长和提高盈利能力。在云计算方面，它通过其 SageMaker 平台帮助客户创建自己的 AI 应用程序，同时通过其 Bedrock 平台提供自身和 AI 初创公司的基础大型语言模型 (LLMs)。它还希望通过使用 AI 找到最佳路线来节省物流成本。并且它正在利用 AI 使第三方卖家更容易在其网站上列出商品，并提供更好的产品信息和推荐。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation and verdict</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值与判断</h2>
</div><p>The traditional gap in valuation between Amazon and Walmart has closed substantially this year. Amazon now trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36, while Walmart currently sits at a multiple of 34:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，亚马逊与沃尔玛之间的传统估值差距大幅缩小。亚马逊目前的前瞻市盈率 (P/E) 为 36，而沃尔玛的市盈率为 34：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaeb1d7a5e3b9a2421dbb5960bddfcd3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaeb1d7a5e3b9a2421dbb5960bddfcd3.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率（前瞻 1 年）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Amazon recently has been growing revenue more quickly than Walmart (11% last quarter versus 5.5%), although it's spending heavily on capital expenditures as it chases its AI opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，亚马逊的收入增长速度快于沃尔玛（上个季度为 11%，而沃尔玛为 5.5%），尽管它在追逐 AI 机会方面的资本支出很高。</p>
</div><p>Both companies have shown the ability to adapt and innovate over the years, which should lead both their stocks to be long-term winners. However, for 2025 -- given the modest valuation gap between the two, its higher revenue growth, and the AI opportunity in front of it -- I prefer Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两家公司多年来都展现了适应和创新的能力，这应该使它们的股票成为长期赢家。然而，考虑到两者之间的适度估值差距、更高的收入增长以及面临的 AI 机会，我更倾向于亚马逊。</p>
</div>

Amazon vs. Walmart: Which Stock Is the Better Buy for 2025?

- 沃尔玛股票在 2024 年上涨近 80%，超越亚马逊的 47% 回报。  
- 沃尔玛通过数字广告和会员服务推动收入增长，去年收入增长 5.5%。  
- 尽管亚马逊也在增长，但预计 2025 年亚马逊将因 AI 机会和更高收入增长而表现更佳。  

亚马逊与沃尔玛：哪只股票在 2025 年更值得买入？