<p>加密货币在这个周末和今天下跌，因为投资者面临可能更加鹰派的美联储，这可能导致 2025 年减少预期的降息次数。</p>
<p>全球最大的加密货币 <strong>比特币</strong>(CRYPTO: BTC) 的价格在下午晚些时候交易时下跌约 4%，而且在周末也大幅下跌。截至周一东部时间下午 1:29，比特币的交易价格约为 93,260 美元，此前在上周四曾突破 102,000 美元。<strong>狗狗币</strong>(CRYPTO: DOGE) 的价格下跌 3.2%，而 <strong>XRP</strong>(CRYPTO: XRP) 下跌 3.1%。</p>
<h2>当前宏观前景非常重要</h2>
<p>美联储在上周结束了今年最后一次会议后，市场随之下跌。美联储还透露，预计明年只会有两次降息，而不是在 9 月份会议上预测的四次。尽管许多投资者和市场专家在美联储会议前似乎预期到了这一点，但这一消息还是让更广泛的市场感到意外。</p>
<p>加密货币利益相关者今天早上得到了更多好消息，因当选总统唐纳德·特朗普任命经济学家、前美国财政部官员斯蒂芬·米兰担任总统有影响力的经济顾问委员会主席。米兰支持加密货币。</p>
<p>然而，投资者似乎更关注更广泛的宏观前景。尽管 11 月份的耐用品订单低于预期，但国债收益率上升，通常对比特币和整体加密货币来说是一个看跌的指标。</p>
<p>许多人认为比特币可以对冲通胀。然而，加密货币受到的不仅仅是国债收益率的影响，黄金今天也下跌。美元持续走强，而比特币作为一种替代货币，通常与美元呈反向关系。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/debd6f7fa8da6622f6b061c4c87277bb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/debd6f7fa8da6622f6b061c4c87277bb.png"/></p>
<p>比特币价格数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>押注 30 天美联储基金期货价格的交易者越来越认为该机构在 2025 年降息的次数将少于之前预期。超过 91% 的交易者认为美联储将在 1 月份的会议上暂停降息，37.5% 的交易者认为美联储明年只会降息一次。</p>
<p>就在一周前，大多数交易者预计美联储明年会降息两次，尽管请记住这些概率可能会迅速变化。</p>
<p>今天早上我没有看到太多特定代币的新闻，尽管迈克尔·塞勒的公司 <strong>MicroStrategy</strong> 继续购买比特币。上周，该公司以平均价格 106,662 美元购买了另外 5,262 个代币，总花费为 5.61 亿美元。塞勒公开预测比特币到 2045 年可能飙升至 1300 万美元。</p>
<h2>预计在新年到来时会有一些波动</h2>
<p>比特币今年大幅上涨，因此更容易出现回调。我预计随着市场寻找通胀和利率走势的线索，该代币将保持波动。</p>
<p>现在大多数交易者认为通胀将会顽固，并保持在美联储偏好的 2% 目标之上。投资者和美联储也在为特朗普提议的减税和关税可能带来的通胀影响做好准备。</p>
<p>不过，所有这些都可能因 12 月份就业报告或 1 月初消费者物价指数的疲软读数而迅速改变方向，这就是我预计明年将开始波动的原因。XRP 和狗狗币的波动性高于比特币，因此这两个代币的涨幅和跌幅都应高于比特币。</p>
<p>我喜欢比特币，并认为 XRP 值得小规模的投机性投资。我目前对狗狗币没有任何兴趣。</p>

GBTC

<p>包括比特币、狗狗币和 XRP 在内的加密货币出现下跌，投资者对美联储可能采取的鹰派立场作出反应，这可能导致 2025 年降息次数减少。比特币下跌约 4%，至约 93,260 美元，而狗狗币和 XRP 分别下跌 3.2% 和 3.1%。美联储最近的会议显示，市场对明年仅有两次降息的预期感到意外。尽管关于支持加密货币的任命有一些积极消息，但宏观经济前景依然令人担忧，国债收益率上升和美元走强对加密货币价格产生影响。预计波动性将持续到新的一年</p>

<p>Cryptocurrencies fell this weekend and into today, as investors grappled with a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, which could lead to fewer rate cuts than hoped for in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密货币在这个周末和今天下跌，因为投资者面临可能更加鹰派的美联储，这可能导致 2025 年减少预期的降息次数。</p>
</div><p>The price of <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(CRYPTO: BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency, traded about 4% lower from late afternoon but also fell significantly over the weekend. As of 1:29 p.m. ET on Monday, Bitcoin traded around $93,260 after topping $102,000 last Thursday. The price of <strong>Dogecoin</strong>(CRYPTO: DOGE) traded 3.2% lower, while <strong>XRP</strong>(CRYPTO: XRP) had fallen 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球最大的加密货币 <strong>比特币</strong>(CRYPTO: BTC) 的价格在下午晚些时候交易时下跌约 4%，而且在周末也大幅下跌。截至周一东部时间下午 1:29，比特币的交易价格约为 93,260 美元，此前在上周四曾突破 102,000 美元。<strong>狗狗币</strong>(CRYPTO: DOGE) 的价格下跌 3.2%，而 <strong>XRP</strong>(CRYPTO: XRP) 下跌 3.1%。</p>
</div><h2>The macro outlook is important right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>当前宏观前景非常重要</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve sent the market lower after concluding its final meeting of the year last week. The Fed also disclosed that it expects only two rate cuts next year instead of the four it projected at its September meeting. While many investors and market pundits seemed to expect this heading into the Fed's meeting, the news surprised the broader market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在上周结束了今年最后一次会议后，市场随之下跌。美联储还透露，预计明年只会有两次降息，而不是在 9 月份会议上预测的四次。尽管许多投资者和市场专家在美联储会议前似乎预期到了这一点，但这一消息还是让更广泛的市场感到意外。</p>
</div><p>Crypto stakeholders got more good news this morning after President-elect Donald Trump appointed Stephen Miran, an economist and former U.S. Treasury Department official, to chair the president's influential Council of Economic Advisers. Moran is pro-crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密货币利益相关者今天早上得到了更多好消息，因当选总统唐纳德·特朗普任命经济学家、前美国财政部官员斯蒂芬·米兰担任总统有影响力的经济顾问委员会主席。米兰支持加密货币。</p>
</div><p>However, investors seemed more focused on the broader macro outlook. Despite durable goods orders in November coming in below expectations, Treasury yields moved higher, normally a bearish indicator for Bitcoin and crypto overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者似乎更关注更广泛的宏观前景。尽管 11 月份的耐用品订单低于预期，但国债收益率上升，通常对比特币和整体加密货币来说是一个看跌的指标。</p>
</div><p>Many think Bitcoin can hedge inflation. However, the cryptocurrency is impacted by more than Treasury yields, and gold also moved lower today. The dollar continued to strengthen, and Bitcoin, as an alternative currency, tends to have an inverse relationship with the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多人认为比特币可以对冲通胀。然而，加密货币受到的不仅仅是国债收益率的影响，黄金今天也下跌。美元持续走强，而比特币作为一种替代货币，通常与美元呈反向关系。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/debd6f7fa8da6622f6b061c4c87277bb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/debd6f7fa8da6622f6b061c4c87277bb.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币价格数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Traders betting on 30-day Fed funds future prices are increasingly counting on the agency cutting rates fewer times than previously expected in 2025. More than 91% of traders think it is set to pause rate cuts at its January meeting, and 37.5% of traders see the Fed doing only one rate cut next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>押注 30 天美联储基金期货价格的交易者越来越认为该机构在 2025 年降息的次数将少于之前预期。超过 91% 的交易者认为美联储将在 1 月份的会议上暂停降息，37.5% 的交易者认为美联储明年只会降息一次。</p>
</div><p>Just a week ago, most traders expected two cuts from the Fed next year, although keep in mind that these probabilities can change quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在一周前，大多数交易者预计美联储明年会降息两次，尽管请记住这些概率可能会迅速变化。</p>
</div><p>I didn't see much token-specific news this morning, although Michael Saylor's company, <strong>MicroStrategy</strong>, continues to buy Bitcoin. Last week, the company purchased another 5,262 tokens for $561 million at an average price of $106,662. Saylor has publicly predicted Bitcoin can soar to $13 million by 2045.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天早上我没有看到太多特定代币的新闻，尽管迈克尔·塞勒的公司 <strong>MicroStrategy</strong> 继续购买比特币。上周，该公司以平均价格 106,662 美元购买了另外 5,262 个代币，总花费为 5.61 亿美元。塞勒公开预测比特币到 2045 年可能飙升至 1300 万美元。</p>
</div><h2>Expect some turbulence heading into the new year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预计在新年到来时会有一些波动</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin has risen significantly this year, so it's more susceptible to pullbacks. I expect the token to remain volatile as the market looks for hints about inflation and the trajectory of interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币今年大幅上涨，因此更容易出现回调。我预计随着市场寻找通胀和利率走势的线索，该代币将保持波动。</p>
</div><p>Most traders now think inflation will be sticky and stay above the Fed's preferred 2% target. Investors and the Fed are also bracing for the potential inflationary impact of Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在大多数交易者认为通胀将会顽固，并保持在美联储偏好的 2% 目标之上。投资者和美联储也在为特朗普提议的减税和关税可能带来的通胀影响做好准备。</p>
</div><p>Still, all of this could change direction on a dime with a weak reading of the December jobs report or the Consumer Price Index in early January, which is why I expect volatility to begin next year. XRP and Dogecoin are more volatile than Bitcoin, so the two tokens should experience higher gains and worse losses than Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，所有这些都可能因 12 月份就业报告或 1 月初消费者物价指数的疲软读数而迅速改变方向，这就是我预计明年将开始波动的原因。XRP 和狗狗币的波动性高于比特币，因此这两个代币的涨幅和跌幅都应高于比特币。</p>
</div><p>I like Bitcoin and think XRP warrants a smaller, speculative position. I do not currently have any interest in Dogecoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我喜欢比特币，并认为 XRP 值得小规模的投机性投资。我目前对狗狗币没有任何兴趣。</p>
</div>

Why Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and XRP Are Stumbling Today

- 加密货币在本周末和今天下跌，因投资者担忧美联储可能更鹰派。  
- 比特币价格从上周四的 $102,000 降至约 $93,260，狗狗币和 XRP 也分别下跌 3.2% 和 3.1%。  
- 投资者关注宏观经济前景，预计美联储明年仅会降息两次。  

为什么加密货币比特币、狗狗币和 XRP 今天表现不佳