<p>汤姆·李是一位杰出的股票研究分析师，并担任 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的管理合伙人。几个月前，李对他对芯片巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 3.69%) 的前景进行了更新。</p>
<p>英伟达在过去两年的表现可谓前所未有。围绕人工智能（AI）的兴奋情绪导致对英伟达的数据中心服务和图形处理单元（GPU）芯片组的需求激增。虽然自然会认为英伟达的势头在某个时刻会减缓，但李的看法有所不同——他预测未来十年将实现当前水平的十倍增长。</p>
<p>接下来，我将探讨围绕李对英伟达 10 倍预测的多头和空头案例。在仔细考虑所有角度后，我希望投资者能够对未来十年可能影响英伟达的催化剂和阻力有更多了解。</p>
<h2>英伟达的多头案例</h2>
<p>如果你一直在关注我在 AI 热潮期间的文章，你会知道我将 2022 年 11 月 30 日视为 AI 革命的非正式开始日期。为什么这么具体？因为那天 OpenAI 向大众发布了 ChatGPT，掀起了一场全球现象。在许多方面，我将 ChatGPT 的发布视为 Facebook 早期和社交媒体诞生的类似事件。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c9ba39b14b42570b259f5c0efe52085.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c9ba39b14b42570b259f5c0efe52085.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 季度收入数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>看看过去两年英伟达的收入、净收入和自由现金流的增长曲线（以 2022 年 11 月 30 日为起始日期）。英伟达的加速增长源于对其 GPU 芯片组的前所未有的需求。当我说 “前所未有” 时并不是夸大其词——英伟达已获得约 90% 的 GPU 市场份额，许多理由表明该公司的势头才刚刚开始。</p>
<p>行业研究表明，未来几年对 AI 基础设施的投资将超过数万亿美元。英伟达的新 Blackwell GPU 架构，加上其继任产品 Rubin（计划于 2026 年发布），使公司在 AI 投资持续扩大的情况下，能够获得增量市场份额。</p>
<p>英伟达的创新速度，加上其强劲的财务状况（以持续上升的利润为支撑），使得人们很难相信对该公司的悲观叙述。然而，聪明的投资者知道，在全力押注英伟达之前，还有更多的因素需要考虑。</p>
<h2>英伟达的空头案例</h2>
<p>英伟达 GPU 销售激增的原因之一在于该公司的技术栈是如何运作的。你看，英伟达的 GPU（硬件）运行在公司的计算统一设备架构（CUDA）软件上。这种紧密集成使得企业很难利用其他芯片制造商的产品和服务。</p>
<p>正如我在几个月前的这篇文章中所表达的，司法部（DOJ）很可能会决定调查英伟达的商业行为，因为该公司显然正在成为垄断。换句话说：政府可能会迫使英伟达放松控制，使 CUDA 系统更加灵活，以便与其他公司开发的 GPU 硬件无缝协作。如果发生这种情况，英伟达的增长率将减缓，公司市场份额可能会开始缩小。</p>
<p>诚然，上述想法更多是基于推测而非现实。然而，英伟达面临的一个更现实的阻力来自竞争。</p>
<p>英伟达最大的客户包括云计算巨头如 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，以及 “七大巨头” 中的 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。虽然对 AI 基础设施的投资增加对英伟达来说可能是好事，但投资者需要理解，这种动态也可能对公司造成不利影响。上述提到的每家公司要么在投资自家开发的芯片，要么已知在用低成本替代品补充其英伟达 GPU——即来自 <strong>超威半导体</strong> 的产品。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE3ODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMwMjgwMTY2OC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE3ODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMwMjgwMTY2OC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>结论</h2>
<p>归根结底，我认为英伟达的估值在未来十年内上涨 10 倍的可能性极小。虽然我对该公司整体持乐观态度，但我确实很难看到该公司的增长如何在未来几年继续产生多倍回报。</p>
<p>对我来说，英伟达仍然是一只坚实的股票，适合投资于 AI 行业，但我认为在面对直接和内部竞争以及政府干预的潜在可能时，预测十倍增长有些过于乐观。</p>

英伟达

<p>Fundstrat Global Advisors 的 Tom Lee 预测，未来十年内英伟达的增长将达到十倍，这主要得益于对人工智能相关服务和 GPU 技术需求的激增。他强调了英伟达在市场上的主导地位和创新能力是其主要增长因素。然而，潜在的挑战包括政府对垄断行为的审查以及来自开发自有芯片公司的竞争加剧。尽管 Lee 对英伟达的前景持乐观态度，但他对实现如此高的估值增长表示怀疑，认为在竞争激烈的环境下，这可能过于雄心勃勃</p>

<p>Tom Lee is an accomplished equity research analyst and serves as a managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors. A couple of months ago, Lee provided an update on his outlook on chip megastar <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.69%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汤姆·李是一位杰出的股票研究分析师，并担任 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的管理合伙人。几个月前，李对他对芯片巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 3.69%) 的前景进行了更新。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's run over the last two years is nothing short of unprecedented. Excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has led to a generational surge in demand for Nvidia's data center services and graphics processing unit (GPU) chipsets. While it's natural to think that Nvidia's momentum is going to slow down at some point, Lee sees things differently -- calling for tenfold growth from current levels over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在过去两年的表现可谓前所未有。围绕人工智能（AI）的兴奋情绪导致对英伟达的数据中心服务和图形处理单元（GPU）芯片组的需求激增。虽然自然会认为英伟达的势头在某个时刻会减缓，但李的看法有所不同——他预测未来十年将实现当前水平的十倍增长。</p>
</div><p>Below, I'm going to explore a bull and bear case surrounding Lee's 10x forecast on Nvidia. After carefully considering all angles, I hope investors can come away with more knowledge surrounding both the catalysts and headwinds that could impact Nvidia over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来，我将探讨围绕李对英伟达 10 倍预测的多头和空头案例。在仔细考虑所有角度后，我希望投资者能够对未来十年可能影响英伟达的催化剂和阻力有更多了解。</p>
</div><h2>The bull case for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的多头案例</h2>
</div><p>If you've been following my articles during the AI boom, you'll know that I see Nov. 30, 2022 as the unofficial start date of the AI revolution. Why so specific? Because that's the day OpenAI released ChatGPT to the masses and sparked a worldwide phenomenon for the ages. In many ways, I view the launch of ChatGPT akin to the early days of Facebook and the birth of social media.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你一直在关注我在 AI 热潮期间的文章，你会知道我将 2022 年 11 月 30 日视为 AI 革命的非正式开始日期。为什么这么具体？因为那天 OpenAI 向大众发布了 ChatGPT，掀起了一场全球现象。在许多方面，我将 ChatGPT 的发布视为 Facebook 早期和社交媒体诞生的类似事件。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c9ba39b14b42570b259f5c0efe52085.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c9ba39b14b42570b259f5c0efe52085.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 季度收入数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Just look at the slope of the lines illustrating Nvidia's revenue, net income, and free cash flow over the last two years (with Nov. 30, 2022 being the start date depicted above). Nvidia's accelerated growth stems from unparalleled demand for its GPU chipsets. When I say &#34;unparalleled&#34; I'm not exaggerating -- Nvidia has acquired an estimated 90% of the GPU market, and there are many reasons to believe the company's momentum is just beginning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看看过去两年英伟达的收入、净收入和自由现金流的增长曲线（以 2022 年 11 月 30 日为起始日期）。英伟达的加速增长源于对其 GPU 芯片组的前所未有的需求。当我说 “前所未有” 时并不是夸大其词——英伟达已获得约 90% 的 GPU 市场份额，许多理由表明该公司的势头才刚刚开始。</p>
</div><p>Industry research suggests that investments in AI infrastructure are going to exceed trillions of dollars over the next several years. Nvidia's new Blackwell GPU architecture, combined with its successor product dubbed Rubin (slotted for a 2026 launch), positions the company well to acquire incremental market share as AI investments continue to scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业研究表明，未来几年对 AI 基础设施的投资将超过数万亿美元。英伟达的新 Blackwell GPU 架构，加上其继任产品 Rubin（计划于 2026 年发布），使公司在 AI 投资持续扩大的情况下，能够获得增量市场份额。</p>
</div><p>The pace at which Nvidia is innovating, combined with its strong financial profile underscored by consistently rising profits, makes it difficult to buy into a pessimistic narrative over the company. Nevertheless, smart investors know that there are more stones to turn over before betting the house on Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的创新速度，加上其强劲的财务状况（以持续上升的利润为支撑），使得人们很难相信对该公司的悲观叙述。然而，聪明的投资者知道，在全力押注英伟达之前，还有更多的因素需要考虑。</p>
</div><h2>The bear case for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的空头案例</h2>
</div><p>One of the reasons Nvidia's GPU sales have skyrocketed stems from how the company's technology stack actually works. You see, Nvidia's GPUs (hardware) run on the company's compute unified device architecture (CUDA) software. This tight integration makes it extremely difficult for businesses to leverage products and services from other chipmakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达 GPU 销售激增的原因之一在于该公司的技术栈是如何运作的。你看，英伟达的 GPU（硬件）运行在公司的计算统一设备架构（CUDA）软件上。这种紧密集成使得企业很难利用其他芯片制造商的产品和服务。</p>
</div><p>As I expressed in this piece from a few months ago, the Department of Justice (DOJ) could very well decide to investigate Nvidia's business practices given the company is arguably becoming a monopoly. Translation: The government could force Nvidia to loosen its grip and make the CUDA system more malleable so that it works seamlessly with GPU hardware developed by other companies. Should this occur, Nvidia's growth rate would decelerate and the company's market share would likely begin to shrink.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我在几个月前的这篇文章中所表达的，司法部（DOJ）很可能会决定调查英伟达的商业行为，因为该公司显然正在成为垄断。换句话说：政府可能会迫使英伟达放松控制，使 CUDA 系统更加灵活，以便与其他公司开发的 GPU 硬件无缝协作。如果发生这种情况，英伟达的增长率将减缓，公司市场份额可能会开始缩小。</p>
</div><p>Admittedly, the idea above is rooted more in speculation than reality. However, a more realistic headwind Nvidia is facing comes from competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚然，上述想法更多是基于推测而非现实。然而，英伟达面临的一个更现实的阻力来自竞争。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's largest customers include cloud hyperscalers such as <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong>, as well as &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; cohorts <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and <strong>Tesla</strong>. While increasing investments in AI infrastructure can be a good thing for Nvidia, it's important for investors to understand that this dynamic could also be a detriment for the company. Each of the companies referenced above is either investing in its own homegrown chips or is known to be supplementing its Nvidia GPUs with those offered by lower-cost alternatives -- namely from <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达最大的客户包括云计算巨头如 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，以及 “七大巨头” 中的 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。虽然对 AI 基础设施的投资增加对英伟达来说可能是好事，但投资者需要理解，这种动态也可能对公司造成不利影响。上述提到的每家公司要么在投资自家开发的芯片，要么已知在用低成本替代品补充其英伟达 GPU——即来自 <strong>超威半导体</strong> 的产品。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE3ODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMwMjgwMTY2OC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801787%2Fgettyimages-1302801668-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The bottom line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论</h2>
</div><p>At the end of the day, I think that it is highly unlikely that Nvidia's valuation will rise 10x over the next decade. While I remain bullish on the company overall, I simply struggle to see how the company's growth can continue generating multibagger-style returns over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>归根结底，我认为英伟达的估值在未来十年内上涨 10 倍的可能性极小。虽然我对该公司整体持乐观态度，但我确实很难看到该公司的增长如何在未来几年继续产生多倍回报。</p>
</div><p>To me, Nvidia is still a rock-solid stock to own for exposure to the AI industry, but I think calling for tenfold growth in the face of direct and internal competition plus the potential for government intervention is a bit of an overzealous call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对我来说，英伟达仍然是一只坚实的股票，适合投资于 AI 行业，但我认为在面对直接和内部竞争以及政府干预的潜在可能时，预测十倍增长有些过于乐观。</p>
</div>

Tom Lee Predicts a 10x Boom for Nvidia: Breaking Down the Bull and Bear Cases

- Tom Lee 预测 Nvidia 在未来十年将实现十倍增长。  
- Nvidia 受益于 AI 需求激增，市场份额达 90%。  
- 竞争和政府干预可能影响其增长潜力。  

Tom Lee 预测英伟达将迎来 10 倍增长：解析看涨和看跌的情况