<p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.31%）在 2024 年即将结束之际，为其股东带来了节日的喜悦。截至目前，该股今年以来已上涨 30%，延续了公司在华尔街的辉煌传统。事实上，苹果在过去五年中实现了 269% 的回报，远超同期 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 82% 涨幅。</p>
<p>投资者是否应该期待 2025 年这家消费电子巨头继续上涨，创造另一个破纪录的年份？让我们探讨一下到明年此时苹果股票可能会处于何种状态。</p>
<h2>驱动增长的苹果智能</h2>
<p>苹果有很多值得称道之处，它已巩固了自己作为全球最具影响力的消费品牌和技术创新者之一的地位。公司的高端设备系列，从旗舰 iPhone 和 Mac 电脑到不断扩展的可穿戴设备和配件，以其卓越的质量和热情的客户忠诚度而闻名。</p>
<p>传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特将苹果视为其金融集团 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 股票投资组合中最大的单一持股，这并非巧合。巴菲特长期以来强调，坚守那些提供消费者喜爱的优质产品的公司是长期成功的关键特征。从所有迹象来看，苹果将继续增长，并在未来几十年内保持其领导地位。个人投资者很难找到另一只具备苹果那样基本面强劲和竞争护城河的股票。</p>
<p>展望未来，苹果并没有仅仅满足于过去的成就。公司正在推进一个以在其设备和更广泛的服务生态系统中利用新人工智能能力为中心的战略愿景。</p>
<p>苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克认为，最近推出的苹果智能平台标志着公司进入了一个 “新时代”，集成了生成文本和生成图像等功能，以及更先进的 Siri 语音助手聊天机器人。这项努力通过有趣和提升生产力的工具增强了用户体验，同时也开辟了新的增长渠道。总体而言，苹果拥有强劲的运营和财务顺风，突显了其积极的前景。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE2NjgvYXBwbGUtc3RvY2stcHJpY2Utb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE2NjgvYXBwbGUtc3RvY2stcHJpY2Utb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2025 年的强劲前景</h2>
<p>在全球超过 22 亿台活跃苹果设备的支持下，苹果智能有望以熟悉且易于使用的界面将人工智能的力量带给大众。预计公司不仅将受益于新技术引发的更新周期的兴趣增加，还将受益于强劲的宏观经济背景。</p>
<p>与苹果完成的 2024 财年（截至 9 月 28 日）中收入仅增长 2% 相比，华尔街分析师预计 2025 年将实现更强劲的 6% 增长率。更令人印象深刻的是，预计新一年的每股收益（EPS）将比去年高出 21.5%，这得益于苹果多元化的高增长服务带来的盈利能力改善。苹果在接下来的几个季度的业绩，包括即将到来的假日购物季，将对苹果智能的早期影响至关重要。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025 预测</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>3910 亿美元</td>
<td>4144 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增长（同比）</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>6.08 美元</td>
<td>7.39 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益增长（同比）</td>
<td>(0.8%)</td>
<td>21.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<h2>高估值需谨慎</h2>
<p>在投资者对公司 2025 年的潜力过于兴奋之前，有几点需要谨慎对待。</p>
<p>苹果的股票目前以其 2025 年每股收益的 34 倍交易，这一水平远高于接近 29 的五年平均估值倍数，表明该股票相对昂贵。尽管苹果作为一家以人工智能驱动的消费品牌，服务收入不断增长的地位可能会为这种溢价估值提供合理性，但仍然存在关于盈利倍数能否进一步扩大的疑问。可以说，公司强劲的短期前景已经反映在股价中。然而，股票的看涨理由在于苹果能够超出预期表现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0d6873a6acccbc36e1f2534e974a4a4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0d6873a6acccbc36e1f2534e974a4a4.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>我对 2025 年苹果的预测</h2>
<p>这条路可能不会是一帆风顺，但我认为苹果在一年内的股价有很大机会上涨。除非有明确证据表明情况发生了实质性变化，否则投资者的明智选择是继续持有。苹果仍然是一只优秀的股票，值得在多元化投资组合中占有一席之地。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票今年迄今已上涨 30%，显著超过标准普尔 500 指数。凭借强大的产品阵容和对人工智能的战略关注，分析师预计 2025 年收入将增长 6%，每股收益将增加 21.5%。然而，股票的交易估值高达共识每股收益的 34 倍，超过了五年平均水平。尽管如此，前景依然积极，投资者被鼓励继续持有苹果的股票，因为该公司持续创新和增长</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.31%) has done its part to lift the holiday spirits of its shareholders as 2024 comes to an end. At the time of this writing, the stock has surged 30% year to date, continuing the company's tradition of crushing Wall Street. Indeed, Apple's 269% return in just the past five years has more than tripled the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index's 82% gain over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.31%）在 2024 年即将结束之际，为其股东带来了节日的喜悦。截至目前，该股今年以来已上涨 30%，延续了公司在华尔街的辉煌传统。事实上，苹果在过去五年中实现了 269% 的回报，远超同期 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 82% 涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Should investors expect the rally to continue in 2025 with another record-breaking year for this consumer electronics juggernaut? Let's explore where Apple stock might be by this time next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者是否应该期待 2025 年这家消费电子巨头继续上涨，创造另一个破纪录的年份？让我们探讨一下到明年此时苹果股票可能会处于何种状态。</p>
</div><h2>Apple Intelligence driving growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>驱动增长的苹果智能</h2>
</div><p>There's a lot to like about Apple, which has cemented itself as one of the world's most influential consumer brands and technology innovators. The company's premium device lineup, from its flagship iPhone and Mac computers to its expanding collection of wearables and accessories, is recognized for its exceptional quality and fervent customer loyalty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果有很多值得称道之处，它已巩固了自己作为全球最具影响力的消费品牌和技术创新者之一的地位。公司的高端设备系列，从旗舰 iPhone 和 Mac 电脑到不断扩展的可穿戴设备和配件，以其卓越的质量和热情的客户忠诚度而闻名。</p>
</div><p>It's no coincidence that legendary investor Warren Buffett counts Apple as the single largest holding within the stock portfolio of his financial conglomerate <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>. Buffett has long emphasized the importance of sticking with companies that offer a superior product that consumers love as a key trait for long-term success. By all indications, Apple will continue growing and hold its leadership position for decades. Individual investors will be hard-pressed to find another stock with Apple's fundamental strength and competitive moat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特将苹果视为其金融集团 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 股票投资组合中最大的单一持股，这并非巧合。巴菲特长期以来强调，坚守那些提供消费者喜爱的优质产品的公司是长期成功的关键特征。从所有迹象来看，苹果将继续增长，并在未来几十年内保持其领导地位。个人投资者很难找到另一只具备苹果那样基本面强劲和竞争护城河的股票。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Apple isn't simply resting on its past achievements. The company is advancing a strategic vision centered on leveraging new artificial intelligence capabilities across its devices and broader services ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，苹果并没有仅仅满足于过去的成就。公司正在推进一个以在其设备和更广泛的服务生态系统中利用新人工智能能力为中心的战略愿景。</p>
</div><p>Apple CEO Tim Cook believes the recently launched Apple Intelligence platform marks a &#34;new era&#34; for the company, integrating features like generative text and generative images, and a more advanced Siri voice assistant chatbot. The effort enhances the user experience with fun and productivity-boosting tools while also opening new growth channels. Overall, Apple has a strong operating and financial tailwind highlighting its positive outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克认为，最近推出的苹果智能平台标志着公司进入了一个 “新时代”，集成了生成文本和生成图像等功能，以及更先进的 Siri 语音助手聊天机器人。这项努力通过有趣和提升生产力的工具增强了用户体验，同时也开辟了新的增长渠道。总体而言，苹果拥有强劲的运营和财务顺风，突显了其积极的前景。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE2NjgvYXBwbGUtc3RvY2stcHJpY2Utb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801668%2Fapple-stock-price-outlook-2025.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A strong outlook into 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年的强劲前景</h2>
</div><p>With more than 2.2 billion active Apple devices worldwide, Apple Intelligence stands to deliver the power of AI to the masses in a familiar and easy-to-use interface. The expectation is that the company will benefit not only from increased interest in the new technology kick-starting a refresh cycle but also from a resilient macroeconomic backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球超过 22 亿台活跃苹果设备的支持下，苹果智能有望以熟悉且易于使用的界面将人工智能的力量带给大众。预计公司不仅将受益于新技术引发的更新周期的兴趣增加，还将受益于强劲的宏观经济背景。</p>
</div><p>Compared to Apple's completed fiscal 2024 (for the period ended Sept. 28) in which revenue increased by a modest 2%, Wall Street analysts are projecting a stronger 2025 with a 6% growth rate. Even more impressive is the 21.5% higher estimated earnings per share (EPS) this new year, driven by improving profitability margins from Apple's diverse group of high-growth services. Apple's results over the next few quarters, including the ongoing holiday shopping season, will be critical to Apple Intelligence's early impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与苹果完成的 2024 财年（截至 9 月 28 日）中收入仅增长 2% 相比，华尔街分析师预计 2025 年将实现更强劲的 6% 增长率。更令人印象深刻的是，预计新一年的每股收益（EPS）将比去年高出 21.5%，这得益于苹果多元化的高增长服务带来的盈利能力改善。苹果在接下来的几个季度的业绩，包括即将到来的假日购物季，将对苹果智能的早期影响至关重要。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025 Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue</td>
<td>$391 billion</td>
<td>$414.4 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Revenue growth (YOY)</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$6.08</td>
<td>$7.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS growth (YOY)</td>
<td>(0.8%)</td>
<td>21.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025 预测</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>3910 亿美元</td>
<td>4144 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增长（同比）</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>6.08 美元</td>
<td>7.39 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益增长（同比）</td>
<td>(0.8%)</td>
<td>21.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Yahoo Finance. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><h2>A pricey valuation warrants some caution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高估值需谨慎</h2>
</div><p>Before investors get too excited about the company's potential in 2025, a couple of points warrant some caution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投资者对公司 2025 年的潜力过于兴奋之前，有几点需要谨慎对待。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Apple are trading at 34 times its consensus 2025 EPS, a level that is now well above the five-year average for the valuation multiple closer to 29 suggesting the stock is relatively expensive. While Apple's strengthening position as an AI-powered consumer brand with growing services revenue could justify that premium valuation, questions remain about how much higher the earnings multiple can expand. An argument could be made that the company's strong near-term outlook is already reflected in the stock price. Nevertheless, the bullish case for the stock is that Apple manages to outperform expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的股票目前以其 2025 年每股收益的 34 倍交易，这一水平远高于接近 29 的五年平均估值倍数，表明该股票相对昂贵。尽管苹果作为一家以人工智能驱动的消费品牌，服务收入不断增长的地位可能会为这种溢价估值提供合理性，但仍然存在关于盈利倍数能否进一步扩大的疑问。可以说，公司强劲的短期前景已经反映在股价中。然而，股票的看涨理由在于苹果能够超出预期表现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0d6873a6acccbc36e1f2534e974a4a4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0d6873a6acccbc36e1f2534e974a4a4.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>My Apple prediction for 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我对 2025 年苹果的预测</h2>
</div><p>It likely won't be a straight line higher, but I see a good chance that Apple will be trading at a higher share price in one year. Unless there is some clear evidence that the circumstances have materially changed, the prudent move for investors is to stay the course. Apple remains a great stock that deserves a spot within a diversified portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这条路可能不会是一帆风顺，但我认为苹果在一年内的股价有很大机会上涨。除非有明确证据表明情况发生了实质性变化，否则投资者的明智选择是继续持有。苹果仍然是一只优秀的股票，值得在多元化投资组合中占有一席之地。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 苹果公司股价年初至今上涨 30%，过去五年回报率达 269%。  
- 预计 2025 年苹果收入将增长 6%，每股收益预计增长 21.5%。  
- 然而，苹果市盈率已达 34 倍，需谨慎对待其高估值。  

一年后苹果股票会处于什么位置？