<p>在过去两年里，华尔街上没有比人工智能（AI）的崛起更热门的趋势。人工智能驱动的软件和系统在现有任务上变得更加高效，并且能够随着时间的推移在没有人类干预的情况下学习新工作，这使得这项技术几乎拥有无限的上限和广泛的应用潜力。</p>
<p>根据普华永道分析师的一个激进估计，人工智能革命可以在本十年末为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。这一超乎寻常的可寻址市场正是人工智能股票自 2023 年初以来飙升的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>然而，并不是每个人都相信人工智能股票仍然是个便宜的选择。尽管相当多的亿万富翁资金经理在过去两年中从人工智能股票的激增中获利丰厚，但一些人正在锁定收益并退居二线，包括斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒。</p>
<p>截至九月底，德鲁肯米勒在杜克斯家族办公室管理着近 30 亿美元的资产，分散在 75 个持股中。虽然德鲁肯米勒仍然看好少数几只人工智能股票，但他已经将华尔街两只最受欢迎的人工智能巨头，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.69%）和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 0.17%），抛售。</p>
<h2>德鲁肯米勒的杜克斯抛售了 Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票</h2>
<p>当 2024 年开始时，杜克斯持有 6174940 股人工智能图形处理单元（GPU）公司 Nvidia 的股票，这考虑到其在 6 月 7 日交易结束后完成的历史性 10 比 1 股票拆分。截至 9 月 30 日，所有股票均已售出。</p>
<p>与此同时，德鲁肯米勒的基金在第三季度出售了 728255 股人工智能驱动的数据挖掘专家 Palantir 的股票，这使得杜克斯家族办公室在该公司的股份减少了约 95%。</p>
<p>如果你在寻找一个合理的理由，说明华尔街最知名的亿万富翁投资者为何抛售两只热门人工智能股票，简单的获利了结是有道理的。截至 12 月 20 日收盘，Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票分别上涨了 172% 和 369%。这些都是超出常规的收益，通常会促使资金经理将部分或全部筹码撤出。</p>
<p>华尔街和投资者担心的是，可能还有其他原因促使德鲁肯米勒及其顾问放弃这些股票，而不仅仅是简单的获利了结。</p>
<p>或许主要的担忧是，过去三十年中每一个下一个重大创新都遵循了相同的轨迹。具体来说，是一段炒作和狂热的时期，随后是泡沫破裂的事件。自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来的每一个重大创新都需要时间来成熟。</p>
<p>尽管这一过程在包括基因解码、3D 打印、区块链技术和元宇宙在内的多个下一个重大趋势中都在上演，但投资者始终高估了新技术或创新被采纳和获得广泛应用的速度。即使企业在数据中心基础设施上进行了积极投资，大多数企业也缺乏明确的计划来实现其人工智能投资的正回报。这很可能表明人工智能是华尔街下一个等待破裂的泡沫。</p>
<p>估值是 Nvidia 和 Palantir 面临的另一个核心问题。在 6 月底和 7 月初，Nvidia 的过去 12 个月（TTM）市销率（P/S）超过了 40，这一水平与互联网泡沫破裂前市场领先企业的峰值一致。Palantir 的估值甚至更为刺眼，该公司目前的市销率高达 73 倍的历史最高水平。历史告诉我们，这些不是可持续的水平。</p>
<p>即使 Nvidia 预计将保持其在 AI-GPU 市场的领先地位，而 Palantir 没有大型竞争对手，但两只股票的回调似乎是可能的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvYmlvdGVjaC1sYWItcmVzZWFyY2gtd2l0aC1tdWx0aXBsZS1waXBldHRlcy1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvYmlvdGVjaC1sYWItcmVzZWFyY2gtd2l0aC1tdWx0aXBsZS1waXBldHRlcy1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>德鲁肯米勒正在大量购买这只炙手可热的制药股票</h2>
<p>但当斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒忙于管理杜克斯投资组合中高调的人工智能股票的出售时，他却在大量购买华尔街 2024 年表现最佳的制药股票之一：<strong>Teva Pharmaceutical Industries</strong>（TEVA 0.54%）。Teva 的股票今年上涨了 112%，德鲁肯米勒的基金在 9 月底的季度中增加了 1427950 股。</p>
<p>过去八年对 Teva 来说并不容易。它因在 2016 年以高价收购仿制药制造商 Actavis 而积累了大量债务，并面临来自几乎所有美国州的诉讼，涉及其在阿片类药物危机中的角色。未知/巨额的法律和解潜力，加上近年来仿制药的定价能力和销售表现不佳，严重压制了 Teva 的股价。</p>
<p>好消息是，一些战略变革和法律解决使 Teva 成为华尔街在 2025 年前最受追捧的药品股票之一。</p>
<p>可以说，最重要的上行催化剂是将其阿片类药物诉讼抛在脑后。去年，该公司与 48 个州达成了 42.5 亿美元的和解协议，分摊时间为 13 年。其中一些和解金额包括向各州提供高达 12 亿美元的仿制药过量逆转药 Narcan。</p>
<p>Teva 管理团队所做的关键战略举措之一是将重点转向品牌药物。尽管新药的销售独占期有限，但它们的利润率更高，增长潜力也比仿制药更为可观。该公司两款畅销品牌药物，治疗迟发性运动障碍的 Austedo 和用于预防偏头痛的 Ajovy，在截至九月的季度中，销售额同比增长超过 20%（按固定汇率计算）。</p>
<p>Teva 的新药管线同样展现出巨大的潜力。12 月份股价飙升的原因与实验药物 duvakitug 在治疗中重度炎症性肠病患者的二期 b 阶段临床试验中报告的积极数据有关。该药物与 <strong>赛诺菲</strong> 合作开发，达到了主要终点，并在溃疡性结肠炎和克罗恩病患者中实现了比安慰剂更多的临床缓解。如果获得批准，duvakitug 的年峰值销售额可能超过 10 亿美元。</p>
<p>此外，Teva 的领导层在出售非核心资产、降低运营费用和稳步改善公司财务灵活性方面表现出色。在 2016 年收购 Actavis 后，Teva 制药的净债务超过 350 亿美元，而现在其资产负债表上的净债务已降至不到 157 亿美元。</p>
<p>随着 Teva 期待已久的转机终于到来，公司的股价仍然便宜，预计 2025 年的每股收益（EPS）不到 8 倍。</p>

梯瓦制药

<p>亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒已出售了所有的英伟达股份，并大幅减少了在 Palantir 的持股，理由是在对潜在人工智能泡沫的担忧中进行获利了结。尽管英伟达和 Palantir 今年分别实现了 172% 和 369% 的显著涨幅，但估值问题依然令人担忧。相反，德鲁肯米勒正在投资于梯瓦制药，该公司的股票今年上涨了 112%，得益于战略调整和法律解决方案改善了其市场地位</p>

<p>Over the last two years, there hasn't been a hotter trend on Wall Street than the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). The ability for AI-powered software and systems to become more proficient at their existing tasks, as well as evolve to learn new jobs over time without human intervention, gives this technology a virtually limitless ceiling and broad-based utility in most industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两年里，华尔街上没有比人工智能（AI）的崛起更热门的趋势。人工智能驱动的软件和系统在现有任务上变得更加高效，并且能够随着时间的推移在没有人类干预的情况下学习新工作，这使得这项技术几乎拥有无限的上限和广泛的应用潜力。</p>
</div><p>Based on one aggressive estimate from the analysts at PwC, the AI revolution can add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by the turn of the decade. This otherworldly addressable market is precisely why AI stocks have soared since the start of 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据普华永道分析师的一个激进估计，人工智能革命可以在本十年末为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。这一超乎寻常的可寻址市场正是人工智能股票自 2023 年初以来飙升的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801930%2Fmoney-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>However, not everyone is sold on the idea that AI stocks are still a bargain. Though quite a few billionaire money managers have profited handsomely from the surge in artificial intelligence stocks over the last two years, some are locking in their gains and heading for the sideline, including Stanley Druckenmiller.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，并不是每个人都相信人工智能股票仍然是个便宜的选择。尽管相当多的亿万富翁资金经理在过去两年中从人工智能股票的激增中获利丰厚，但一些人正在锁定收益并退居二线，包括斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒。</p>
</div><p>As of the end of September, Druckenmiller was overseeing almost $3 billion in assets under management at Duquesne Family Office, which was spread across 75 holdings. While there are a select few AI stocks Druckenmiller still fancies, he's been sending Wall Street's two most-popular artificial intelligence juggernauts, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.69%) and <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.17%), to the grinder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至九月底，德鲁肯米勒在杜克斯家族办公室管理着近 30 亿美元的资产，分散在 75 个持股中。虽然德鲁肯米勒仍然看好少数几只人工智能股票，但他已经将华尔街两只最受欢迎的人工智能巨头，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.69%）和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 0.17%），抛售。</p>
</div><h2>Druckenmiller's Duquesne has dumped shares of Nvidia and Palantir</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>德鲁肯米勒的杜克斯抛售了 Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票</h2>
</div><p>When 2024 began, Duquesne held 6,174,940 shares of AI-graphics processing unit (GPU) company Nvidia, which takes into account its historic 10-for-1 stock split completed following the close of trading on June 7. As of Sept. 30, every share had been sold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 2024 年开始时，杜克斯持有 6174940 股人工智能图形处理单元（GPU）公司 Nvidia 的股票，这考虑到其在 6 月 7 日交易结束后完成的历史性 10 比 1 股票拆分。截至 9 月 30 日，所有股票均已售出。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Druckenmiller's fund sold 728,255 shares of AI-driven data-mining specialist Palantir during the third quarter, which reduced Duquesne Family Office's stake in the company by roughly 95%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，德鲁肯米勒的基金在第三季度出售了 728255 股人工智能驱动的数据挖掘专家 Palantir 的股票，这使得杜克斯家族办公室在该公司的股份减少了约 95%。</p>
</div><p>If you're looking for a viable reason why one of Wall Street's most-prominent billionaire investors is dumping shares of two hot AI stocks, simple profit-taking makes sense. Shares of Nvidia and Palantir have respectively gained 172% and 369% year-to-date, as of the closing bell on Dec. 20. These are outsized gains that typically encourage money managers to take some or all of their chips off the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在寻找一个合理的理由，说明华尔街最知名的亿万富翁投资者为何抛售两只热门人工智能股票，简单的获利了结是有道理的。截至 12 月 20 日收盘，Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票分别上涨了 172% 和 369%。这些都是超出常规的收益，通常会促使资金经理将部分或全部筹码撤出。</p>
</div><p>The worry for Wall Street and investors is there may be reasons beyond simple profit-taking that have encouraged Druckenmiller and his advisors to abandon ship.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街和投资者担心的是，可能还有其他原因促使德鲁肯米勒及其顾问放弃这些股票，而不仅仅是简单的获利了结。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the primary concern is that every next-big-thing innovation over the last three decades has followed the same course. Specifically, a period of hype and euphoria followed by a bubble-bursting event. Every big-time innovation since (and including) the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s has needed time to mature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许主要的担忧是，过去三十年中每一个下一个重大创新都遵循了相同的轨迹。具体来说，是一段炒作和狂热的时期，随后是泡沫破裂的事件。自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来的每一个重大创新都需要时间来成熟。</p>
</div><p>Despite this same process playing out in a number of next-big-thing trends, including genome decoding, 3D printing, blockchain technology, and the metaverse, investors consistently overestimate how quickly a new technology or innovation will be adopted and gain widespread utility. Even with aggressive investments in data center infrastructure by businesses, most lack well-defined plans to generate a positive return on their AI investment. This likely signals that AI is Wall Street's next bubble waiting to burst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这一过程在包括基因解码、3D 打印、区块链技术和元宇宙在内的多个下一个重大趋势中都在上演，但投资者始终高估了新技术或创新被采纳和获得广泛应用的速度。即使企业在数据中心基础设施上进行了积极投资，大多数企业也缺乏明确的计划来实现其人工智能投资的正回报。这很可能表明人工智能是华尔街下一个等待破裂的泡沫。</p>
</div><p>Valuation is another front-and-center concern for Nvidia and Palantir. In late June and early July, Nvidia's trailing-12-month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio surpassed 40, which is a level consistent with peaks of market-leading businesses prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble. Palantir's valuation is even more of an eyesore, with the company currently trading at an all-time high multiple of 73 times TTM P/S. History tells us these are not sustainable levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值是 Nvidia 和 Palantir 面临的另一个核心问题。在 6 月底和 7 月初，Nvidia 的过去 12 个月（TTM）市销率（P/S）超过了 40，这一水平与互联网泡沫破裂前市场领先企业的峰值一致。Palantir 的估值甚至更为刺眼，该公司目前的市销率高达 73 倍的历史最高水平。历史告诉我们，这些不是可持续的水平。</p>
</div><p>Even with Nvidia expected to maintain its market share lead in AI-GPUs and Palantir having no large-scale competition, retracements appear likely for both stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 Nvidia 预计将保持其在 AI-GPU 市场的领先地位，而 Palantir 没有大型竞争对手，但两只股票的回调似乎是可能的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvYmlvdGVjaC1sYWItcmVzZWFyY2gtd2l0aC1tdWx0aXBsZS1waXBldHRlcy1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801930%2Fbiotech-lab-research-with-multiple-pipettes-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Druckenmiller is scooping up shares of this red-hot pharmaceutical stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>德鲁肯米勒正在大量购买这只炙手可热的制药股票</h2>
</div><p>But while Stanley Druckenmiller was busy overseeing the sale of high-profile AI stocks in Duquesne's investment portfolio, he was piling into one of Wall Street's top-performing pharmaceutical stocks of 2024: <strong>Teva Pharmaceutical Industries</strong>(TEVA 0.54%). Shares of Teva are higher by 112% for the year, with Druckenmiller's fund adding 1,427,950 shares during the September-ended quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但当斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒忙于管理杜克斯投资组合中高调的人工智能股票的出售时，他却在大量购买华尔街 2024 年表现最佳的制药股票之一：<strong>Teva Pharmaceutical Industries</strong>（TEVA 0.54%）。Teva 的股票今年上涨了 112%，德鲁肯米勒的基金在 9 月底的季度中增加了 1427950 股。</p>
</div><p>The previous eight years for Teva weren't the easiest, to say the least. It racked up a lot of debt by overpaying for generic drugmaker Actavis in 2016, and faced litigation from pretty much every U.S. state regarding its role in the opioid crisis. The potential for an unknown/large legal settlement, coupled with the subpar pricing power and sales performance of generic drugs in recent years, heavily weighed on Teva's share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去八年对 Teva 来说并不容易。它因在 2016 年以高价收购仿制药制造商 Actavis 而积累了大量债务，并面临来自几乎所有美国州的诉讼，涉及其在阿片类药物危机中的角色。未知/巨额的法律和解潜力，加上近年来仿制药的定价能力和销售表现不佳，严重压制了 Teva 的股价。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that a number of strategic changes and legal resolutions have made Teva one of Wall Street's most sought-after drug stocks to own ahead of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，一些战略变革和法律解决使 Teva 成为华尔街在 2025 年前最受追捧的药品股票之一。</p>
</div><p>Arguably the most important upside catalyst has been putting its opioid litigation in the rearview mirror. Last year, the company entered into a $4.25 billion settlement with 48 states, which'll be spread over 13 years. Some of this settlement value includes supplying up to $1.2 billion of generic overdose reversal drug Narcan to states.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以说，最重要的上行催化剂是将其阿片类药物诉讼抛在脑后。去年，该公司与 48 个州达成了 42.5 亿美元的和解协议，分摊时间为 13 年。其中一些和解金额包括向各州提供高达 12 亿美元的仿制药过量逆转药 Narcan。</p>
</div><p>One of the key strategic moves made by Teva's management team has been to shift its focus to brand-name therapies. Even though novel drugs have a finite period of sales exclusivity, they possess better margins and juicier growth potential than generic drugs. Two of the company's top-selling brand-name drugs, Austedo for tardive dyskinesia and Ajovy for migraine prevention, grew sales by more than 20% in the September-ended quarter (on a constant-currency basis) from the prior-year period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Teva 管理团队所做的关键战略举措之一是将重点转向品牌药物。尽管新药的销售独占期有限，但它们的利润率更高，增长潜力也比仿制药更为可观。该公司两款畅销品牌药物，治疗迟发性运动障碍的 Austedo 和用于预防偏头痛的 Ajovy，在截至九月的季度中，销售额同比增长超过 20%（按固定汇率计算）。</p>
</div><p>Teva's novel-drug pipeline is showing plenty of promise, as well. The reason shares are on fire in December has to do with the reporting of positive phase 2b data for experimental drug duvakitug as a treatment for patients with moderate-to-severe inflammatory bowel disease. The drug, which was developed in collaboration with <strong>Sanofi</strong>, met its primary endpoints and achieved clinical remission in more patients with ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease than the placebo. If approved, duvakitug could blow past $1 billion in peak annual sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Teva 的新药管线同样展现出巨大的潜力。12 月份股价飙升的原因与实验药物 duvakitug 在治疗中重度炎症性肠病患者的二期 b 阶段临床试验中报告的积极数据有关。该药物与 <strong>赛诺菲</strong> 合作开发，达到了主要终点，并在溃疡性结肠炎和克罗恩病患者中实现了比安慰剂更多的临床缓解。如果获得批准，duvakitug 的年峰值销售额可能超过 10 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Teva's leadership has done a standup job of selling noncore assets, lowering operating expenses, and steadily improving the company's financial flexibility. Whereas Teva Pharmaceutical had north of $35 billion in net debt following its acquisition of Actavis in 2016, it now has less than $15.7 billion in net debt on its balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Teva 的领导层在出售非核心资产、降低运营费用和稳步改善公司财务灵活性方面表现出色。在 2016 年收购 Actavis 后，Teva 制药的净债务超过 350 亿美元，而现在其资产负债表上的净债务已降至不到 157 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>With Teva's long-awaited turnaround finally here, shares remain inexpensive at less than 8 times forecast earnings per share (EPS) for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 Teva 期待已久的转机终于到来，公司的股价仍然便宜，预计 2025 年的每股收益（EPS）不到 8 倍。</p>
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Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Is Selling Nvidia and Palantir and Piling Into One of Wall Street's Hottest Drug Stocks Ahead of 2025

- 人工智能 (AI) 的崛起推动了华尔街的热潮，预计到 2030 年将为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。  
- 投资者如 Stanley Druckenmiller 已出售 Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票，因其股价大幅上涨。  
- Druckenmiller 则增持了 Teva 制药，因其战略转型和新药研发展现出强劲潜力。  

Motley Fool

亿万富翁斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒正在出售英伟达和 Palantir，并在 2025 年之前大量买入华尔街最热门的药品股票之一