<p>回顾过去以预测股市未来并不总是准确，因为公司在不断变化，市场也在变化。然而，观察一只股票在达到类似估值或增长水平时的表现是有用的，尤其是对于周期性公司。</p>
<p>我最近对 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.59%) 进行了这样的分析，结果揭示了一些令人惊讶的结果，我认为投资者在进入 2025 年时必须关注这些。</p>
<h2>Meta Platforms 以合理的价格提供稳健的增长</h2>
<p>虽然大多数人不会将 Meta（Facebook 和 Instagram 的母公司）视为周期性业务，但它确实是。Meta 几乎所有的收入都来自广告，这与商业情绪的波动密切相关。如果广告客户认为未来几个月消费者支出将显著增加，他们的广告支出将比经济衰退时更为积极。</p>
<p>随着 Meta 的收入以健康的速度增长，显然广告商相信消费者将维持其支出水平。这与 2019 年至 2021 年期间的情况类似（除了因 COVID 造成的轻微波动）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de7f3980b41465fa451b9151c905e2b5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de7f3980b41465fa451b9151c905e2b5.png"/></p>
<p>META 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。同比 = 年同比。</p>
<p>尽管 2019 年至 2021 年期间的收入增长率略高，但总体情绪和增长范围大致相同。此外，从市盈率（P/E）来看，估值也相似。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2c57376fb808676040c57c6ac5f10348.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2c57376fb808676040c57c6ac5f10348.png"/></p>
<p>META 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。市盈率 = 市价与每股收益的比率。</p>
<p>因此，Meta 的增长和定价与 2019 年至 2021 年期间相似。那么它的表现如何呢？相当不错。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3a1a63c5fe7e9c780315b70398f97287.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3a1a63c5fe7e9c780315b70398f97287.png"/></p>
<p>META 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>在这三年中，Meta 的股票获得了巨大的收益，我不会感到惊讶，如果它在 2025 年表现良好，因为历史对 Meta 有利。</p>
<h2>Meta 在进入 2025 年时的估值合理</h2>
<p>考虑到 Meta 的股票在过去的估值和收入增长速度相似的情况下有着良好的历史，投资者对 2025 年感到兴奋是有道理的。然而，有几点需要注意。</p>
<p>对于 2025 年，华尔街分析师预计 Meta 的收入增长约为 15%。这显著低于 2019 至 2021 年的范围，但考虑到 Meta 是一家大型公司，这仍然显示出强劲的增长。</p>
<p>由于 Meta 是一家成熟公司，大多数投资者关注的是利润增长而非收入增长。2025 年可能会受到影响，因为管理层已经警告投资者，明年基础设施支出将显著加速增长。</p>
<p>这主要集中在其人工智能（AI）投资上，因为它需要继续扩展计算能力，以在这一重要领域争夺市场份额。尽管如此，华尔街分析师预计 2025 年的每股收益（EPS）增长为 12%，因此增加的支出不会对其收益产生太大影响。</p>
<p>尽管增长放缓和支出增加，Meta Platforms 仍然是市场上最便宜的大型科技股之一。如果将其与其他 “七大奇迹” 股票（<strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Tesla</strong>）进行比较，Meta 在使用过去或未来收益估值时是第二便宜的股票。</p>
<p>然而，这并不意味着它的增长缓慢。Meta 的第三季度收入增长在该组中排名第二，展示了 Meta 在强劲增长下的合理价格。</p>
<p>尽管 Meta 的情况与 2019 年至 2021 年期间并不完全相同，但有许多相似之处。再加上 Meta 与许多同行相比的合理定价，我认为这为 2025 年提供了一个能够带来可观回报的股票。因此，Meta 是我在 2025 年最值得购买的股票之一。</p>

META

<p>Meta Platforms 在 2025 年有望实现显著增长，与 2019 年至 2021 年的表现相似。尽管预计收入增长 15% 和每股收益增长 12%，但由于人工智能投资，公司面临着不断上升的基础设施开支。然而，Meta 仍然是最具性价比的大型科技股之一，仅次于同行的估值。在强劲的收入增长和有利的历史背景下，Meta 被认为是 2025 年的最佳股票选择</p>

<p>Looking to the past to predict the future in the stock market isn't always accurate, as companies are constantly changing alongside the broader market. However, it can be useful to see how a stock performed when it reached similar valuation or growth levels, especially with cyclical companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顾过去以预测股市未来并不总是准确，因为公司在不断变化，市场也在变化。然而，观察一只股票在达到类似估值或增长水平时的表现是有用的，尤其是对于周期性公司。</p>
</div><p>I recently did this with <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.59%), and it revealed some incredible results I think investors must pay attention to heading into 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我最近对 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.59%) 进行了这样的分析，结果揭示了一些令人惊讶的结果，我认为投资者在进入 2025 年时必须关注这些。</p>
</div><h2>Meta Platforms provides solid growth at a reasonable price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Meta Platforms 以合理的价格提供稳健的增长</h2>
</div><p>While most people wouldn't think of Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, as a cyclical business, it is. Meta derives nearly all its revenue from advertising, which ebbs and flows with business sentiment. If advertising clients think there will be significant consumer spending in the coming months, they'll advertise more heavily than they would if the economy were in a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然大多数人不会将 Meta（Facebook 和 Instagram 的母公司）视为周期性业务，但它确实是。Meta 几乎所有的收入都来自广告，这与商业情绪的波动密切相关。如果广告客户认为未来几个月消费者支出将显著增加，他们的广告支出将比经济衰退时更为积极。</p>
</div><p>With Meta's revenue growing at a healthy pace, it's clear that advertisers believe consumers will maintain their spending levels. This is similar to 2019 through 2021 (besides a slight blip thanks to COVID).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 Meta 的收入以健康的速度增长，显然广告商相信消费者将维持其支出水平。这与 2019 年至 2021 年期间的情况类似（除了因 COVID 造成的轻微波动）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de7f3980b41465fa451b9151c905e2b5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de7f3980b41465fa451b9151c905e2b5.png"/></p>
<p>META Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts. YoY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>META 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>Although the revenue growth rate was slightly higher in 2019 through 2021, the general sentiment and range of growth are about the same. Furthermore, the valuation looks similar on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 2019 年至 2021 年期间的收入增长率略高，但总体情绪和增长范围大致相同。此外，从市盈率（P/E）来看，估值也相似。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2c57376fb808676040c57c6ac5f10348.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2c57376fb808676040c57c6ac5f10348.png"/></p>
<p>META PE Ratio data by YCharts. PE Ratio = price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>META 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。市盈率 = 市价与每股收益的比率。</p>
</div><p>So, Meta is growing and priced similarly to what it was from 2019 to 2021. How did it perform? Quite well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Meta 的增长和定价与 2019 年至 2021 年期间相似。那么它的表现如何呢？相当不错。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3a1a63c5fe7e9c780315b70398f97287.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3a1a63c5fe7e9c780315b70398f97287.png"/></p>
<p>META data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>META 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Meta's stock saw massive gains over those three years, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had a solid 2025, as history favors Meta.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这三年中，Meta 的股票获得了巨大的收益，我不会感到惊讶，如果它在 2025 年表现良好，因为历史对 Meta 有利。</p>
</div><h2>Meta is reasonably priced heading into 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Meta 在进入 2025 年时的估值合理</h2>
</div><p>With Meta's stock having a solid history to stand on when the stock was valued and growing revenue at a similar pace as in the past, investors are right to be excited about 2025. However, a few points need to be noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到 Meta 的股票在过去的估值和收入增长速度相似的情况下有着良好的历史，投资者对 2025 年感到兴奋是有道理的。然而，有几点需要注意。</p>
</div><p>For 2025, Wall Street analysts expect Meta's revenue growth to be about 15%. This is notably slower than the 2019 to 2021 range, but it still shows strong growth, considering Meta is a huge company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2025 年，华尔街分析师预计 Meta 的收入增长约为 15%。这显著低于 2019 至 2021 年的范围，但考虑到 Meta 是一家大型公司，这仍然显示出强劲的增长。</p>
</div><p>With Meta being a mature company, most investors focus on profit growth rather than revenue growth. That could take a hit in 2025, as management has already warned investors that there will be a &#34;significant acceleration in infrastructure expense growth next year.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 Meta 是一家成熟公司，大多数投资者关注的是利润增长而非收入增长。2025 年可能会受到影响，因为管理层已经警告投资者，明年基础设施支出将显著加速增长。</p>
</div><p>This is largely centered around its artificial intelligence (AI) investments, as it needs to continue building out computing power to capture market share in this important field. Still, Wall Street analysts expect 12% earnings-per-share (EPS) growth in 2025, so the increased spending won't affect its earnings too much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这主要集中在其人工智能（AI）投资上，因为它需要继续扩展计算能力，以在这一重要领域争夺市场份额。尽管如此，华尔街分析师预计 2025 年的每股收益（EPS）增长为 12%，因此增加的支出不会对其收益产生太大影响。</p>
</div><p>Despite a slowdown in growth and increased spending, Meta Platforms is still one of the cheapest big tech stocks on the market. If you compare it to other &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks ( <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Tesla</strong>, Meta is the second-cheapest stock when valued using trailing or forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管增长放缓和支出增加，Meta Platforms 仍然是市场上最便宜的大型科技股之一。如果将其与其他 “七大奇迹” 股票（<strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Tesla</strong>）进行比较，Meta 在使用过去或未来收益估值时是第二便宜的股票。</p>
</div><p>However, that doesn't mean it's growing slowly, either. Meta's Q3 revenue growth was the second-fastest in the group, showcasing Meta's reasonable price for strong growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这并不意味着它的增长缓慢。Meta 的第三季度收入增长在该组中排名第二，展示了 Meta 在强劲增长下的合理价格。</p>
</div><p>Although the setup for Meta isn't exactly the same as it was from 2019 to 2021, there are many similarities. Throw in that Meta is reasonably priced compared to many of its peers, and I think you have a recipe for a stock that can put up impressive returns in 2025. As a result, Meta is one of my best stocks to buy for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Meta 的情况与 2019 年至 2021 年期间并不完全相同，但有许多相似之处。再加上 Meta 与许多同行相比的合理定价，我认为这为 2025 年提供了一个能够带来可观回报的股票。因此，Meta 是我在 2025 年最值得购买的股票之一。</p>
</div>

History Says Meta Platforms Is Primed for Massive Upside in 2025

- Meta Platforms 的广告收入与经济形势密切相关，显示出强劲的增长潜力。  
- 尽管预计 2025 年收入增长放缓至 15%，但每股收益仍有 12% 的增长预期。  
- Meta 在大科技股中估值较低，具备良好的投资回报前景。  

历史表明 Meta Platforms 在 2025 年有望迎来大幅上涨