<p>华尔街对 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -1.73%) 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.59%) 持非常乐观的态度。这两只股票的共识评级为买入，截止到 12 月 27 日的中位目标价格暗示至少有 10% 的上涨空间。然而，两位对冲基金亿万富翁在第三季度卖出了微软，买入了 Meta Platforms：</p>
<ul>
<li>Lone Pine Capital 的 Stephen Mandel 卖出了 364,426 股微软，减少了 18% 的持仓。他还买入了 496,900 股 Meta Platforms，增加了 36% 的持仓。Meta Platforms 现在是他最大的持仓，而微软则从第二位降至第五位。</li>
<li>Moore Capital Management 的 Louis Bacon 卖出了 93,922 股微软，削减了 70% 的股份。他还买入了 128,207 股 Meta Platforms，增加了 961% 的持仓。Meta 现在是他仅次于期权的第二大持仓，而微软不再排名前 50。</li>
</ul>
<p>投资者在没有尽职调查的情况下不应复制这些交易。这两家对冲基金在过去三年中表现不及 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)。而且这些交易是在三个月前结束的第三季度进行的。尽管如此，考虑到人工智能可能在未来大幅提升它们的利润，微软和 Meta Platforms 确实值得进一步关注。</p>
<h2>1. 微软</h2>
<p>微软报告了 2025 财年第一季度的强劲财务业绩，该季度于 9 月结束，超出了收入和净利润的预期。由于对人工智能（AI）产品的需求推动企业软件和云服务的强劲势头，收入增长了 16%，达到了 650 亿美元。同时，按照公认会计原则（GAAP），净收入增长了 10%，达到了 3.30 美元。但由于几个原因，报告后股价下跌。</p>
<p>首先，管理层首次披露了其对 OpenAI 的 130 亿美元投资的会计情况。首席财务官 Amy Hood 表示，预计 OpenAI 的损失将在本季度对收入造成 15 亿美元的拖累。这一逆风在短期内可能会持续。但微软在 OpenAI 实现盈利后有权获得其部分收益。</p>
<p>股价下跌的另一个原因是投资者对微软在人工智能方面的投资力度感到担忧。实际上，第一季度的高支出导致自由现金流下降了 7%，尽管微软在公共云支出中失去了三个百分点的市场份额。首席财务官 Amy Hood 表示，由于 “云和 AI 需求信号”，资本支出将在本季度再次增加。</p>
<p>然而，Piper Sandler 的 Brent Bracelin 表示，关于人工智能投资的担忧被夸大了。微软的 AI 业务预计将在下个季度超过 100 亿美元的年收入运行率，这仅在推出两年半后，速度是云业务达到同一里程碑的四倍。此外，Bracelin 认为 AI 收入未来可能增长十倍，达到每年 1000 亿美元。</p>
<p>即便如此，微软仍面临一个宝贵的问题。该股票的市盈率为 36 倍，高于五年平均的 33 倍。当华尔街预计未来三年每年盈利增长 13% 时，这一倍数很难证明合理。这些数据给出了 2.7 的市盈率增长比（PEG）比率，而传统观点认为，超过 2 的值被认为是昂贵的。</p>
<p>结论是：潜在投资者应等待更好的入场时机再购买微软股票。但只要股东对价格可能出现两位数的下跌感到舒适，他们不一定需要削减持仓。</p>
<h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<p>Meta Platforms 在第三季度报告了强劲的财务业绩，超出了收入和净利润的预期。收入增长了 19%，达到了 400 亿美元，营业利润率扩大了 3 个百分点，GAAP 净收入激增了 37%，每股摊薄收益为 6.03 美元。报告后股价下跌，因为活跃用户的增长速度低于分析师的预期，但卖出股票的投资者可能错过了大局。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 运营着全球七大最受欢迎的社交媒体平台中的四个，这一显著的竞争优势使其能够获取消费者数据并精准投放广告。因此，Meta Platforms 是全球第二大广告技术公司，仅次于 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌，并预计到 2026 年将继续获得市场份额，依据 eMarketer 的预测。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 还有效利用人工智能来提升用户参与度。首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在第三季度的财报电话会议上表示：“基于 AI 的动态信息流和视频推荐使得用户在 Facebook 上花费的时间增加了 8%，在 Instagram 上增加了 6%。” 他还表示，过去一个月内，有超过一百万个品牌使用其生成式 AI 工具创建广告内容。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 的股票目前以 28 倍的市盈率交易，高于五年平均的 25.5 倍。但由于华尔街预计该公司的盈利在未来三年将以每年 18% 的速度增长，因此估值仍然具有吸引力。这些数据给出了 1.6 的 PEG 比率，使得该股票比微软便宜得多。</p>
<p>结论是：耐心的投资者今天应考虑在 Meta Platforms 中小幅增持。然而，由于估值高于历史平均水平，回调是完全可能的。如果股价下跌约 15%，那将是增持更大仓位的好时机。</p>

微软

<p>华尔街对微软和 Meta Platforms 持乐观态度，两者均被评级为买入，具有潜在的上涨空间。对冲基金亿万富翁们正在出售微软股票并购买 Meta，Meta 的持股显著增加。微软报告了强劲的第一季度业绩，但对其人工智能投资和自由现金流下降表示担忧。Meta 的第三季度业绩表现强劲，但用户增长放缓导致股价下跌。Meta 正在利用人工智能提升用户参与度，并预计将在广告市场中获得更大的市场份额。投资者被建议在购买微软之前考虑入场时机，而 Meta 则显示出强劲的增长潜力</p>

<p>Wall Street is very bullish on <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -1.73%) and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.59%). Both stocks have a consensus rating of buy, and the median target prices imply at least 10% upside as of Dec. 27. However, two hedge fund billionaires sold Microsoft and bought Meta Platforms in the third quarter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街对 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -1.73%) 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.59%) 持非常乐观的态度。这两只股票的共识评级为买入，截止到 12 月 27 日的中位目标价格暗示至少有 10% 的上涨空间。然而，两位对冲基金亿万富翁在第三季度卖出了微软，买入了 Meta Platforms：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital sold 364,426 shares of Microsoft, reducing his position by 18%. He also bought 496,900 shares of Meta Platforms, increasing his position by 36%. Meta Platforms is now his largest holding, and Microsoft dropped from second to fifth.</li>
<li>Louis Bacon of Moore Capital Management sold 93,922 shares of Microsoft, cutting his stake by 70%. He also bought 128,207 shares of Meta Platforms, increasing his position by 961%. Meta is now his second-largest holding aside from options, and Microsoft no longer ranks in the top 50.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Lone Pine Capital 的 Stephen Mandel 卖出了 364,426 股微软，减少了 18% 的持仓。他还买入了 496,900 股 Meta Platforms，增加了 36% 的持仓。Meta Platforms 现在是他最大的持仓，而微软则从第二位降至第五位。</li>
<li>Moore Capital Management 的 Louis Bacon 卖出了 93,922 股微软，削减了 70% 的股份。他还买入了 128,207 股 Meta Platforms，增加了 961% 的持仓。Meta 现在是他仅次于期权的第二大持仓，而微软不再排名前 50。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Investors should not copy those trades without due diligence. Both hedge funds underperformed the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) during the last three years. And the trades were made in the third quarter, which ended three months ago. That said, Microsoft and Meta Platforms do warrant further consideration, given that artificial intelligence could supercharge their profits in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在没有尽职调查的情况下不应复制这些交易。这两家对冲基金在过去三年中表现不及 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)。而且这些交易是在三个月前结束的第三季度进行的。尽管如此，考虑到人工智能可能在未来大幅提升它们的利润，微软和 Meta Platforms 确实值得进一步关注。</p>
</div><h2>1. Microsoft</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 微软</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft reported solid financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended in September, beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue rose 16% to $65 billion on strong momentum in enterprise software and cloud services driven by demand for artificial intelligence (AI) products. Meanwhile, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income increased 10% to $3.30. But the stock declined following the report for a few reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软报告了 2025 财年第一季度的强劲财务业绩，该季度于 9 月结束，超出了收入和净利润的预期。由于对人工智能（AI）产品的需求推动企业软件和云服务的强劲势头，收入增长了 16%，达到了 650 亿美元。同时，按照公认会计原则（GAAP），净收入增长了 10%，达到了 3.30 美元。但由于几个原因，报告后股价下跌。</p>
</div><p>First, management, for the first time, gave insight into the accounting of its $13 billion investment in OpenAI. CFO Amy Hood said the expected loss at OpenAI would be a $1.5 billion drag on income in the current quarter. That headwind will likely persist in the near term. But Microsoft is entitled to a portion of OpenAI's earnings once the start-up reaches profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，管理层首次披露了其对 OpenAI 的 130 亿美元投资的会计情况。首席财务官 Amy Hood 表示，预计 OpenAI 的损失将在本季度对收入造成 15 亿美元的拖累。这一逆风在短期内可能会持续。但微软在 OpenAI 实现盈利后有权获得其部分收益。</p>
</div><p>The stock also fell because investors are concerned about how aggressively Microsoft is investing in AI. Indeed, higher spending in the first quarter led to a 7% decline in free cash flow, even as Microsoft lost three points of market share in public cloud spending. And CFO Amy Hood says capital expenditures will increase again in the current quarter due to &#34;cloud and AI demand signals.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价下跌的另一个原因是投资者对微软在人工智能方面的投资力度感到担忧。实际上，第一季度的高支出导致自由现金流下降了 7%，尽管微软在公共云支出中失去了三个百分点的市场份额。首席财务官 Amy Hood 表示，由于 “云和 AI 需求信号”，资本支出将在本季度再次增加。</p>
</div><p>However, Brent Bracelin at <strong>Piper Sandler</strong> says concerns related to investments in AI are overblown. Microsoft's AI business is expected to surpass an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, just two-and-a-half years after its launch, which is four times faster than the cloud business reached the same milestone. Also, Bracelin thinks AI revenue could grow tenfold to reach $100 billion annually in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Piper Sandler 的 Brent Bracelin 表示，关于人工智能投资的担忧被夸大了。微软的 AI 业务预计将在下个季度超过 100 亿美元的年收入运行率，这仅在推出两年半后，速度是云业务达到同一里程碑的四倍。此外，Bracelin 认为 AI 收入未来可能增长十倍，达到每年 1000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Even so, Microsoft still has a valuable problem. The stock trades at 36 times earnings, a premium to the five-year average of 33 times earnings. That multiple is hard to justify when Wall Street expects earnings to grow at 13% annually in the next three years. Those figures give a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 2.7, and conventional wisdom says values above 2 are expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，微软仍面临一个宝贵的问题。该股票的市盈率为 36 倍，高于五年平均的 33 倍。当华尔街预计未来三年每年盈利增长 13% 时，这一倍数很难证明合理。这些数据给出了 2.7 的市盈率增长比（PEG）比率，而传统观点认为，超过 2 的值被认为是昂贵的。</p>
</div><p>Here is the bottom line: Prospective investors should wait for a better entry point before buying Microsoft stock. But shareholders don't necessarily need to trim their positions, provided they are comfortable with the possibility of a double-digit decline in the price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论是：潜在投资者应等待更好的入场时机再购买微软股票。但只要股东对价格可能出现两位数的下跌感到舒适，他们不一定需要削减持仓。</p>
</div><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
</div><p>Meta Platforms reported strong financial results in the third quarter, beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. Revenue rose 19% to $40 billion, operating margin expanded 3 percentage points, and GAAP net income surged 37% to $6.03 per diluted share. The stock declined following the report because active users increased more slowly than analysts anticipated, but investors who sold may have missed the big picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 在第三季度报告了强劲的财务业绩，超出了收入和净利润的预期。收入增长了 19%，达到了 400 亿美元，营业利润率扩大了 3 个百分点，GAAP 净收入激增了 37%，每股摊薄收益为 6.03 美元。报告后股价下跌，因为活跃用户的增长速度低于分析师的预期，但卖出股票的投资者可能错过了大局。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms operates four of the seven most popular social media platforms on the planet, a significant competitive advantage that lets it source consumer data and target advertising content. Consequently, Meta Platforms is the second-largest adtech company in the world behind <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google, and it's projected to gain market share through 2026, according to eMarketer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 运营着全球七大最受欢迎的社交媒体平台中的四个，这一显著的竞争优势使其能够获取消费者数据并精准投放广告。因此，Meta Platforms 是全球第二大广告技术公司，仅次于 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌，并预计到 2026 年将继续获得市场份额，依据 eMarketer 的预测。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms is also effectively using AI to boost engagement. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on the third-quarter earnings call, &#34;AI-driven feed and video recommendations have led to an 8% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% increase on Instagram this year alone.&#34; He also said more than a million brands used its generative AI tools to create ad content in the last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 还有效利用人工智能来提升用户参与度。首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在第三季度的财报电话会议上表示：“基于 AI 的动态信息流和视频推荐使得用户在 Facebook 上花费的时间增加了 8%，在 Instagram 上增加了 6%。” 他还表示，过去一个月内，有超过一百万个品牌使用其生成式 AI 工具创建广告内容。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms stock currently trades at 28 times earnings, a premium to the five-year average of 25.5 times earnings. But the valuation is still attractive because Wall Street expects the company's earnings to grow at 18% annually in the next three years. Those figures give a PEG ratio of 1.6, making the stock much cheaper than Microsoft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 的股票目前以 28 倍的市盈率交易，高于五年平均的 25.5 倍。但由于华尔街预计该公司的盈利在未来三年将以每年 18% 的速度增长，因此估值仍然具有吸引力。这些数据给出了 1.6 的 PEG 比率，使得该股票比微软便宜得多。</p>
</div><p>Here is the bottom line: Patient investors should consider buying a small position in Meta Platforms today. However, with the valuation above the historical average, a pullback is certainly possible. If the stock falls by 15% or so, that would be a good time to buy a slightly larger position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论是：耐心的投资者今天应考虑在 Meta Platforms 中小幅增持。然而，由于估值高于历史平均水平，回调是完全可能的。如果股价下跌约 15%，那将是增持更大仓位的好时机。</p>
</div>

Microsoft Stock vs. Meta Platforms Stock: Billionaires Are Buying One and Selling the Other

- 华尔街对微软和 Meta Platforms 持乐观态度，目标价均有 10% 上涨空间。  
- 两位对冲基金亿万富翁在第三季度减持微软，增持 Meta。  
- 微软和 Meta 的未来增长潜力与人工智能密切相关。

微软股票与 Meta Platforms 股票：亿万富翁在买入其中一个并卖出另一个