<p>看到公司在收入或盈利方面创下个人记录总是对投资者来说是个好兆头，因为这表明公司正在达到新的高度。然而，也有一些指标你不希望看到公司创下新纪录，比如债务或估值。</p>
<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) 最近创下了一个新纪录，但这并不是一个好理由。我认为这是一个巨大的信号，投资者在 2025 年需要关注，因为这可能导致股价回落。</p>
<h2>苹果的增长速度已减缓至蜗牛般的步伐</h2>
<p>苹果长期以来一直是顶级消费品牌之一。其 iPhone 在美国大多数智能手机用户手中，用户还佩戴苹果的手表和 AirPods，并使用苹果电脑。尽管苹果在一段时间内占据主导地位，但似乎已经达到了顶峰。</p>
<p>苹果已经有一段时间没有推出有意义的新产品或技术，这导致公司变得相当停滞。iPhone 销售额是公司收入最大的部分，已经有一段时间没有快速增长。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>Q4 iPhone 收入</th>
<th>同比增长</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>462 亿美元</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>438 亿美元</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>426 亿美元</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：苹果。注意：Q4 结束于 9 月 30 日左右，但每年有所不同。</p>
<p>中个位数百分比的收入增长是公司达到成熟阶段的关键指标。除非苹果推出新产品或提高价格，否则这种增长率不太可能改变。然而，公司的交易情况却像其收入以中 20% 的速度增长或更高。</p>
<p>尽管没有显示出太多增长，苹果的股票现在已达到十年来的新高估值水平。尽管苹果的股票在其作为上市公司期间曾以更高的市盈率交易，但这是它在现代状态下（当 iPhone 销售占其收入的显著部分时）首次以如此高的价格交易。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0c91c541a144a05d063cc1ca25b0ed99.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0c91c541a144a05d063cc1ca25b0ed99.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>我还叠加了苹果的收入增长率，以显示苹果上一次以 40 倍的市盈率估值时，其收入同比增长超过 50%。随着苹果的收入现在以更慢的速度增长，这种估值似乎正在失控，因为它无法通过增长来实现更合理的价格。</p>
<p>因此，苹果可能会通过价格下跌回归到更历史正常的估值水平。</p>
<h2>投资者可以预期多大的下跌？</h2>
<p>由于苹果的增长速度慢于整体市场，没有理由认为苹果应该比 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -1.07%) 享有溢价。标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率为 25.2，前瞻市盈率为 21.9，如果苹果继续保持平淡的增长，我预计苹果股票会在这些水平附近交易。</p>
<p>华尔街分析师预计，苹果在 2025 财年（截至 2025 年 9 月）收入将增长 6%，在 2026 财年将增长 8%，因此这种缓慢但稳定的增长预计将在未来几年继续。</p>
<p>如果苹果的股票跌至 30 倍的市盈率，股价需要下降近 30%。25 倍的市盈率（大约是标准普尔 500 的估值）将意味着超过 40% 的下跌。现在，这些确切的下跌可能不会发生，因为苹果的盈利每个季度都会增长，这将有助于其市盈率下降。然而，可能需要进行一定程度的价格修正，因为多年的增长已经反映在股票中。</p>
<p>没有太多理由让人持有苹果股票而不是其他大型科技公司。它的增长缓慢，估值昂贵。作为投资，它真正的优势只是它的名字。投资者应该考虑从苹果股票中转移出去，因为即使是一些最大的支持者（如沃伦·巴菲特）在过去一年中也开始出售苹果股票。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票估值已达到历史高点，尽管增长放缓，这预示着未来可能出现下滑。该公司的 iPhone 销售增长已停滞，目前的市盈率相较于标准普尔 500 指数显示出高估。分析师预计 2025 财年的收入将温和增长 6%，但如果股票的市盈率回归正常，可能面临 30-40% 的下滑。投资者被建议重新考虑持有苹果股票，因为其增长前景减弱且竞争加剧</p>

<p>Watching companies set individual records on revenue or earnings is always a great sign for investors, as it indicates the company is reaching new heights. However, there are also some metrics you don't want to see companies setting new records in, like debt or valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到公司在收入或盈利方面创下个人记录总是对投资者来说是个好兆头，因为这表明公司正在达到新的高度。然而，也有一些指标你不希望看到公司创下新纪录，比如债务或估值。</p>
</div><p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) has recently set a new record, but it's not for a good reason. I think this is a huge signal for investors to pay attention to in 2025 because it could result in a retreat for the stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) 最近创下了一个新纪录，但这并不是一个好理由。我认为这是一个巨大的信号，投资者在 2025 年需要关注，因为这可能导致股价回落。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's growth has slowed to a snail's pace</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的增长速度已减缓至蜗牛般的步伐</h2>
</div><p>Apple has been among the top consumer brands for a long time. Its iPhones are in the hands of the majority of smartphone users in the U.S., who also wear Apple's watches and AirPods, and use Apple computers. While Apple has been dominant for some time, it seems to have peaked.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果长期以来一直是顶级消费品牌之一。其 iPhone 在美国大多数智能手机用户手中，用户还佩戴苹果的手表和 AirPods，并使用苹果电脑。尽管苹果在一段时间内占据主导地位，但似乎已经达到了顶峰。</p>
</div><p>Apple hasn't released meaningful new products or technology for some time, which has caused the company to become fairly stagnant. iPhone sales, the company's largest segment by revenue, haven't increased at a rapid pace for some time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果已经有一段时间没有推出有意义的新产品或技术，这导致公司变得相当停滞。iPhone 销售额是公司收入最大的部分，已经有一段时间没有快速增长。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>Q4 iPhone Revenue</th>
<th>YOY Growth</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>$46.2 billion</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>$43.8 billion</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>$42.6 billion</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>Q4 iPhone 收入</th>
<th>同比增长</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>462 亿美元</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>438 亿美元</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>426 亿美元</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Apple. Note: Q4 ends around Sept. 30 but is different each year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：苹果。注意：Q4 结束于 9 月 30 日左右，但每年有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Mid-single-digit percentage revenue growth is a key indicator that a company has reached maturity. This growth rate isn't likely to change unless Apple launches a new product or bumps its prices. However, the company is trading as if its revenue is growing a mid-20% pace or more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中个位数百分比的收入增长是公司达到成熟阶段的关键指标。除非苹果推出新产品或提高价格，否则这种增长率不太可能改变。然而，公司的交易情况却像其收入以中 20% 的速度增长或更高。</p>
</div><p>Apple's stock has now reached a new decade-high valuation level despite not showing much growth. Although Apple's stock has traded for a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio than this during its life as a public company, this is the first time it has traded this high in its modern state (when iPhone sales are a significant chunk of its revenue).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管没有显示出太多增长，苹果的股票现在已达到十年来的新高估值水平。尽管苹果的股票在其作为上市公司期间曾以更高的市盈率交易，但这是它在现代状态下（当 iPhone 销售占其收入的显著部分时）首次以如此高的价格交易。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0c91c541a144a05d063cc1ca25b0ed99.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0c91c541a144a05d063cc1ca25b0ed99.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>I've also overlayed Apple's revenue growth rate to show that the previous time Apple was valued around 40 times trailing earnings, its revenue was growing at more than 50% year over year. With Apple's revenue now growing at a much slower rate, this valuation seems to be getting out of hand because it won't be able to grow its way into a more reasonable price tag.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我还叠加了苹果的收入增长率，以显示苹果上一次以 40 倍的市盈率估值时，其收入同比增长超过 50%。随着苹果的收入现在以更慢的速度增长，这种估值似乎正在失控，因为它无法通过增长来实现更合理的价格。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Apple probably will return to a more historically normal valuation level through a price decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，苹果可能会通过价格下跌回归到更历史正常的估值水平。</p>
</div><h2>How much of a decline could investors expect?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者可以预期多大的下跌？</h2>
</div><p>With Apple growing at a slower pace than the broader market, there's no reason why Apple deserves a premium over the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -1.07%). With the S&amp;P 500 trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 25.2 and a forward P/E of 21.9, I'd expect Apple stock to trade around those levels <em>if</em> it continues to put up mundane growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于苹果的增长速度慢于整体市场，没有理由认为苹果应该比 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -1.07%) 享有溢价。标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率为 25.2，前瞻市盈率为 21.9，如果苹果继续保持平淡的增长，我预计苹果股票会在这些水平附近交易。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street analysts project Apple's revenue will rise 6% in fiscal year 2025 (ending September 2025) and 8% in fiscal year 2026, so this slow but steady growth is expected to continue during the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街分析师预计，苹果在 2025 财年（截至 2025 年 9 月）收入将增长 6%，在 2026 财年将增长 8%，因此这种缓慢但稳定的增长预计将在未来几年继续。</p>
</div><p>If Apple's stock falls to a P/E ratio of 30, the stock price would need to decline by nearly 30%. A P/E ratio of 25 (around the S&amp;P 500's valuation) would imply a fall of more than 40%. Now, these exact declines probably won't happen because Apple's earnings will grow each quarter, which will help its P/E ratio come down. However, there likely needs to be some amount of price correction, as years of growth have already been baked into the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果苹果的股票跌至 30 倍的市盈率，股价需要下降近 30%。25 倍的市盈率（大约是标准普尔 500 的估值）将意味着超过 40% 的下跌。现在，这些确切的下跌可能不会发生，因为苹果的盈利每个季度都会增长，这将有助于其市盈率下降。然而，可能需要进行一定程度的价格修正，因为多年的增长已经反映在股票中。</p>
</div><p>There aren't many reasons to own Apple over other big tech companies. It's growing slowly and is expensively valued. All it really has going for it as an investment is its name. Investors should think about moving on from Apple stock, as even some of its biggest proponents (like Warren Buffett) have started selling Apple shares during the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有太多理由让人持有苹果股票而不是其他大型科技公司。它的增长缓慢，估值昂贵。作为投资，它真正的优势只是它的名字。投资者应该考虑从苹果股票中转移出去，因为即使是一些最大的支持者（如沃伦·巴菲特）在过去一年中也开始出售苹果股票。</p>
</div>

Apple's Stock Has Reached Historic Levels in One Metric. It's a Clear Warning Sign for 2025.

- 苹果公司近期创下新纪录，但并非好消息，可能影响股价。  
- 其 iPhone 销售增长缓慢，估值已达到十年高点。  
- 投资者应考虑抛售苹果股票，因其增长乏力且估值过高。

苹果的股票在某一指标上达到了历史新高。这是对 2025 年的一个明确警告信号