<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -3.30%) 在 2024 年表现出色，股东享受了 70% 的收益（截至 12 月 30 日）。</p>
<p>一系列积极因素，如稳健的销售量和唐纳德·特朗普当选总统，推动了股票创下新高。但随着年末的到来，投资者现在应该购买特斯拉股票以备 2025 年吗？让我们来探讨一下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDIyOTkvYWktMy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDIyOTkvYWktMy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>成为最大的汽车制造商</h2>
<p>电动汽车（EV）行业的崛起是过去十年中的一个重要趋势，各国正在努力解决环境问题。这一重大转型使得像特斯拉这样的早期参与者在从传统汽车制造商那里获取市场份额方面获得了巨大的优势。</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，特斯拉已成为美国最大的电动汽车制造商，2024 年几乎占据了 50% 的电动汽车销售份额。尽管特斯拉的电动汽车市场份额从 2022 年初的 75% 下降，因为传统汽车制造商开始迎头赶上，但它仍然保持着主导市场份额。</p>
<p>尽管在过去几年中取得了显著成就，特斯拉在长期内有更大的雄心：成为最大的汽车制造商。一系列策略，包括降低销售价格、削减成本以成为成本领导者，以及推出低价车型，展示了公司实现长期使命的决心。</p>
<p>事实上，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克公开表示，他的目标是到 2030 年每年销售 2000 万辆汽车，尽管许多特斯拉粉丝认为公司可能会更多地转向机器人出租车，而不仅仅是销售传统电动汽车。无论如何，特斯拉在汽车行业主导地位的雄心是明确而坚定的。</p>
<p>好消息是，有早期迹象表明特斯拉的长期使命正在按计划进行。例如，在 2024 年第三季度，特斯拉实现了每辆车的最低销售成本为 35,100 美元，车辆交付量环比和同比均有所增加，尽管销售更多汽车，但运营费用减少了 6%，并且毛利率同比提高了 1.95 个百分点。</p>
<p>虽然单个季度的财务表现并不能指示未来的结果，但这表明特斯拉在朝着其长期使命迈进方面取得了良好进展。</p>
<h2>不仅仅是汽车制造商</h2>
<p>特斯拉可能最初是作为电动汽车制造商起步，但多年来它已经超越了自己的根基，进入了可再生能源、自动驾驶和机器人出租车等其他领域。</p>
<p>以可再生能源为例。特斯拉旨在为商业和住宅客户提供完整的解决方案，以实现能源独立，涵盖太阳能电池板和能源存储等主要组件。随着世界对可持续性和环保意识的提高，可再生能源业务处于一个可能持续数十年的重大趋势的中心。</p>
<p>另一个可能成为特斯拉巨大变革者的领域是其对人工智能（AI）的投资，这可能反过来帮助其在自动驾驶汽车、机器人出租车和类人机器人等领域加速产品开发。每个产品随着时间的推移可能会带来数百亿美元的收益，甚至更多。例如，埃隆·马斯克声称，特斯拉的类人机器人 Optimus 有一天可能会将公司的市值提升至 25 万亿美元，因为世界将大规模接受这些机器人。（特斯拉目前的市值约为 1.4 万亿美元。）</p>
<p>虽然这些新业务中的所有项目都不太可能像电动汽车业务那样成功，但在这些领域中只要有一两个成功，就可能为特斯拉的股东创造巨大的价值。</p>
<h2>但这里有潜在的交易破坏因素</h2>
<p>到现在为止，很容易看出我对特斯拉未来几年的商业前景持乐观态度。然而，我不能对特斯拉的股票说同样的话。</p>
<p>乐观的投资者将特斯拉的价格推高至过高的估值。例如，特斯拉的市销率为 16，前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 125。因此，尽管特斯拉的前景无疑良好，但保守的投资者仍会质疑支付如此高的价格是否合理——尤其是对于尚未实现的高风险投资。</p>
<p>此外，自特朗普赢得选举以来，特斯拉的股票经历了相当大的上涨，因为投资者预计由于马斯克与即将上任的总统的密切关系，特斯拉将获得有利的待遇。然而，这种投机是有风险的，因为预测这种关系将如何影响特斯拉过于复杂。</p>
<h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
<p>特斯拉的未来光明，因为它继续扩大电动汽车业务，同时开发机器人出租车、机器人等新业务。因此，现有投资者，尤其是那些在更低价格点购买股票的投资者，可能会考虑将股票持有至 2025 年。</p>
<p>但对于其他人来说，以今天的估值购买特斯拉的股票可能风险太大，尽管股票价格在 2025 年进一步上涨的势头强劲。</p>
<p>宁可安全也不要后悔。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票在 2024 年上涨了 70%，这得益于强劲的销售和政治因素。该公司旨在成为最大的汽车制造商，几乎占据美国电动车销售的 50%。尽管近期取得了成功，特斯拉的股票仍被认为高估，市盈率为 125。虽然现有投资者可能会继续持有他们的股份，但新投资者可能会觉得当前的估值风险太大，尽管该公司在电动车以及人工智能和可再生能源等其他领域的未来前景看好</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -3.30%) had a big year in 2024 and shareholders enjoyed a 70% gain (as of Dec. 30).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -3.30%) 在 2024 年表现出色，股东享受了 70% 的收益（截至 12 月 30 日）。</p>
</div><p>A series of positive factors, such as solid sales volume and the election of Donald Trump as president, propelled the stock to new all-time highs. But as the year ends, should investors buy Tesla stock now for 2025? Let's explore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一系列积极因素，如稳健的销售量和唐纳德·特朗普当选总统，推动了股票创下新高。但随着年末的到来，投资者现在应该购买特斯拉股票以备 2025 年吗？让我们来探讨一下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDIyOTkvYWktMy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F802299%2Fai-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Becoming the largest car manufacturer</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>成为最大的汽车制造商</h2>
</div><p>The rise of the electric vehicle (EV) industry has been a significant trend during the past decade as countries globally work to solve environmental issues. This major transition gave early movers like Tesla a big advantage in gaining market share from the incumbents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动汽车（EV）行业的崛起是过去十年中的一个重要趋势，各国正在努力解决环境问题。这一重大转型使得像特斯拉这样的早期参与者在从传统汽车制造商那里获取市场份额方面获得了巨大的优势。</p>
</div><p>Unsurprisingly, Tesla has become the biggest EV car manufacturer in the U.S., making nearly 50% of EV sales in 2024. While Tesla's EV market share has fallen from 75% at the beginning of 2022 as the incumbents have started catching up, it still holds the dominant market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，特斯拉已成为美国最大的电动汽车制造商，2024 年几乎占据了 50% 的电动汽车销售份额。尽管特斯拉的电动汽车市场份额从 2022 年初的 75% 下降，因为传统汽车制造商开始迎头赶上，但它仍然保持着主导市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Despite its remarkable achievements during the past few years, Tesla has bigger ambitions over the longer term: to become the largest car manufacturer. A series of strategies, which include reducing sales prices, cutting costs to become the cost leader, and launching a low-priced car model, demonstrate the company's resolve to achieve its long-term mission.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在过去几年中取得了显著成就，特斯拉在长期内有更大的雄心：成为最大的汽车制造商。一系列策略，包括降低销售价格、削减成本以成为成本领导者，以及推出低价车型，展示了公司实现长期使命的决心。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has openly stated his goal of selling 20 million cars a year by 2030, even though many Tesla fans think that the company could be pivoting more toward robotaxis than just selling traditional EVs. Regardless, Tesla's ambition to dominate the automobile industry is clear and resolute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克公开表示，他的目标是到 2030 年每年销售 2000 万辆汽车，尽管许多特斯拉粉丝认为公司可能会更多地转向机器人出租车，而不仅仅是销售传统电动汽车。无论如何，特斯拉在汽车行业主导地位的雄心是明确而坚定的。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that there are early indicators that Tesla's long-term mission is on track. For example, in the third quarter of 2024, Tesla achieved its lowest cost of goods sold per vehicle of $35,100, increased vehicle deliveries both sequentially and year over year, reduced operating expenses by 6% despite selling more cars, and improved its gross margin by 1.95 percentage points year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，有早期迹象表明特斯拉的长期使命正在按计划进行。例如，在 2024 年第三季度，特斯拉实现了每辆车的最低销售成本为 35,100 美元，车辆交付量环比和同比均有所增加，尽管销售更多汽车，但运营费用减少了 6%，并且毛利率同比提高了 1.95 个百分点。</p>
</div><p>While a single quarter of financial performance does not indicate future results, it suggests that Tesla has been making good strides in moving toward its long-term mission.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然单个季度的财务表现并不能指示未来的结果，但这表明特斯拉在朝着其长期使命迈进方面取得了良好进展。</p>
</div><h2>More than just a car manufacturer</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不仅仅是汽车制造商</h2>
</div><p>Tesla might have started as an EV manufacturer, but it has, over the years, gone beyond its roots into other sectors such as renewables, autonomous driving, and robotaxis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉可能最初是作为电动汽车制造商起步，但多年来它已经超越了自己的根基，进入了可再生能源、自动驾驶和机器人出租车等其他领域。</p>
</div><p>Take renewables, for example. Tesla aims to provide a complete solution for commercial and residential customers to move toward energy independence, covering major components like solar panels and energy storage. As the world becomes more conscious about sustainability and environmental friendliness, the renewable energy business sits at the center of a megatrend that could last for decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以可再生能源为例。特斯拉旨在为商业和住宅客户提供完整的解决方案，以实现能源独立，涵盖太阳能电池板和能源存储等主要组件。随着世界对可持续性和环保意识的提高，可再生能源业务处于一个可能持续数十年的重大趋势的中心。</p>
</div><p>Another area that could become a huge game-changer for Tesla is its investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which could, in turn, help it accelerate products in areas like autonomous vehicles, robotaxis, and humanoid robots, to name a few. Each product could yield tens of billions of dollars over time, if not more. For instance, Elon Musk claims that Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus could one day lift the company's market capitalization to $25 trillion as the world embraces these robots en masse. (Tesla's market cap now is about $1.4 trillion.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能成为特斯拉巨大变革者的领域是其对人工智能（AI）的投资，这可能反过来帮助其在自动驾驶汽车、机器人出租车和类人机器人等领域加速产品开发。每个产品随着时间的推移可能会带来数百亿美元的收益，甚至更多。例如，埃隆·马斯克声称，特斯拉的类人机器人 Optimus 有一天可能会将公司的市值提升至 25 万亿美元，因为世界将大规模接受这些机器人。（特斯拉目前的市值约为 1.4 万亿美元。）</p>
</div><p>While it's unlikely that all of these new ventures will become as successful as the EV business, just one or two successes in these areas could create enormous value for Tesla's shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这些新业务中的所有项目都不太可能像电动汽车业务那样成功，但在这些领域中只要有一两个成功，就可能为特斯拉的股东创造巨大的价值。</p>
</div><h2>But here's the potential deal-breaker</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但这里有潜在的交易破坏因素</h2>
</div><p>By now, it's not hard to see that I'm bullish about Tesla's business prospects for the next few years. However, I can't say the same about Tesla's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到现在为止，很容易看出我对特斯拉未来几年的商业前景持乐观态度。然而，我不能对特斯拉的股票说同样的话。</p>
</div><p>Optimistic investors have bid up Tesla's price to excessive valuations. For instance, Tesla has a price-to-sales ratio of 16 and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 125. So, while Tesla's prospects are undeniably good, conservative investors will still question whether paying such a high price tag makes sense -- especially for high-risk ventures that have yet to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乐观的投资者将特斯拉的价格推高至过高的估值。例如，特斯拉的市销率为 16，前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 125。因此，尽管特斯拉的前景无疑良好，但保守的投资者仍会质疑支付如此高的价格是否合理——尤其是对于尚未实现的高风险投资。</p>
</div><p>Besides, Tesla's stock has had a considerable run since Trump won the election, as investors expect favorable treatment for Tesla due to Musk's close association with the incoming president. Such speculation, however, is risky since it's too complex to predict how such relationships will affect Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，自特朗普赢得选举以来，特斯拉的股票经历了相当大的上涨，因为投资者预计由于马斯克与即将上任的总统的密切关系，特斯拉将获得有利的待遇。然而，这种投机是有风险的，因为预测这种关系将如何影响特斯拉过于复杂。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has a bright future as it continues to scale its EV business while developing its newer ventures in robotaxis, robotics, and more. As such, existing investors, especially those who bought the stock at much lower price points, may consider holding the stock into 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的未来光明，因为它继续扩大电动汽车业务，同时开发机器人出租车、机器人等新业务。因此，现有投资者，尤其是那些在更低价格点购买股票的投资者，可能会考虑将股票持有至 2025 年。</p>
</div><p>But for the rest, buying Tesla's stock at today's valuation is probably too risky, even though there's strong momentum for the stock price to advance further in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对于其他人来说，以今天的估值购买特斯拉的股票可能风险太大，尽管股票价格在 2025 年进一步上涨的势头强劲。</p>
</div><p>It's better to be safe than sorry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宁可安全也不要后悔。</p>
</div>

Is Tesla Stock a Buy in 2025?

- 特斯拉在 2024 年实现 70% 的股东收益，成为美国最大电动车制造商。  
- 公司计划到 2030 年每年销售 2000 万辆汽车，并扩展至可再生能源和人工智能领域。  
- 尽管前景乐观，但高估值使得新投资者需谨慎考虑购买。  

特斯拉股票在 2025 年是否值得购买？