<p>电子商务先锋 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.18%) 是我考虑随时购买的少数几只股票之一。同时，像沃伦·巴菲特这样的投资大师坚持认为，即使是伟大的公司也应该在合理的价格下购买。</p>
<p>随着 2024 年接近尾声，亚马逊的股票今年已经上涨超过 46%。该股票的交易价格仅比其两周前创下的历史最高点低 6%。在这些飙升的股价下，亚马逊仍然值得购买吗，还是应该等股票冷却后再在 2025 年重新审视？</p>
<h2>亚马逊股票是否被高估？</h2>
<p>如果你以前听过这个，请打断我：亚马逊的股票看起来很贵。</p>
<p>这家在线零售商和云计算创新者确实在华尔街达到了一个高位。它是备受推崇的 “七大巨头” 股票之一，市值为 2.27 万亿美元。股票的市盈率 (P/E) 为 47 倍，自由现金流市盈率 (P/FCF) 为 53 倍。没有其他方式可以看待这一点——亚马逊的股票现在并不便宜。</p>
<h2>这只超越市场的股票从未显得便宜</h2>
<p>不过，这只股票似乎从来没有像个便宜货。无论你应用什么指标来分析图表——亚马逊的股票大多数时候都显得昂贵。</p>
<p>市盈率大约是过去 15 年来最低的：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b7e6b0c93876adb43df0e261153f09d8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b7e6b0c93876adb43df0e261153f09d8.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>从历史角度来看，现金流比率也很低。从这个角度看，亚马逊的股票在 2008-2009 年次贷危机后和 2010 年代中期云计算部门盈利时显得可负担，但亚马逊在 2013 年和 2021 年也耗尽了现金利润。数据中心设备、一流的运输服务和升级的总部可能很昂贵。</p>
<p>最终，亚马逊过去 15 年的平均自由现金流市盈率 (P/FCF) 为 108：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/682b41686e6e418753203af36fe1a8b2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/682b41686e6e418753203af36fe1a8b2.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 自由现金流市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>而我真的不需要提醒你，这只股票无论如何都提供了卓越的回报，对吧？<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.24%) 在我强调的 15 年期间上涨了 424%，而亚马逊则以 3070% 的涨幅遥遥领先：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/382919f13c810aeaad27b009e8e4f798.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/382919f13c810aeaad27b009e8e4f798.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>“完美时机” 是真实存在的。没有人知道如何实现它。</h2>
<p>我同意，当你抓住了购买特定股票的完美时机时，确实会有所不同。如果你在 2009 年 6 月的正确日子购买了亚马逊的股票，而不是六个月后，你的回报将是 5550%。这是一个更好的结果。</p>
<p>但没有人知道如何准确找到这些完美的买入日期。沃伦·巴菲特是第一个承认他无法预测 “股票市场在接下来的六个月、下一年或接下来的两年会发生什么” 的人。</p>
<p>这种不确定性适用于整个市场以及每只个股。任何投资者能做的就是在看似合理的时候购买优秀公司的股票，然后让基础业务在长期内提供盈利增长和股东回报。这对像巴菲特这样的亿万富翁来说已经足够好，对我来说也完全可以。你也应该考虑类似的方法。</p>
<h2>是的，你今天可以购买亚马逊</h2>
<p>也许现在不是购买亚马逊股票的最佳时机。但这也不是一个_糟糕_的时机。</p>
<p>展望未来，亚马逊应该会受益于更强劲的经济、持续的人工智能 (AI) 热潮以及其最近推出的无人机配送系统。我说的是一家拥有灵活商业计划的世界级创新者，尽管股票可能永远显得不便宜，但仍然在多年中提供了丰厚的回报。</p>
<p>所以你不应该全力以赴，孤注一掷，或把你所有的积蓄都投入到亚马逊股票中。然而，如果你还没有开始，可以考虑以适度的方式建立亚马逊的持仓，使用分批购买或自动定投等价格缓解技术。</p>
<p>前方的道路可能会崎岖不平，但你不想在一旁观看，亚马逊继续为其股东提供超越市场的长期回报。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的股票在 2024 年上涨超过 46%，交易价格仅比历史最高点低 6%。尽管其估值较高，市盈率为 47，市现率为 53，但该股票仍然是一个强劲的长期投资。专家建议，虽然现在可能不是最佳买入时机，但通过定投建立一个适度的头寸可能会带来好处。预计亚马逊将因经济增长、人工智能进步和新配送系统而蓬勃发展，成为寻求长期收益的投资者的潜在买入对象</p>

<p>E-commerce pioneer <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.18%) belongs in the small handful of stocks I'd consider buying at any time. At the same time, master investors like Warren Buffett insist that even great companies should be bought only at reasonable prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电子商务先锋 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.18%) 是我考虑随时购买的少数几只股票之一。同时，像沃伦·巴菲特这样的投资大师坚持认为，即使是伟大的公司也应该在合理的价格下购买。</p>
</div><p>As 2024 winds down, Amazon shares have gained more than 46% this year. The stock trades just 6% below its all-time high, which was set two weeks ago. Is Amazon still a buy at these soaring share prices, or should you let the stock cool down before taking another look in 2025?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 2024 年接近尾声，亚马逊的股票今年已经上涨超过 46%。该股票的交易价格仅比其两周前创下的历史最高点低 6%。在这些飙升的股价下，亚马逊仍然值得购买吗，还是应该等股票冷却后再在 2025 年重新审视？</p>
</div><h2>Is Amazon stock overpriced?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊股票是否被高估？</h2>
</div><p>Stop me if you've heard this before: Amazon's stock looks expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你以前听过这个，请打断我：亚马逊的股票看起来很贵。</p>
</div><p>The online retailer and cloud computing innovator has indeed reached a lofty perch on Wall Street. It's one of the vaunted &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks, with a $2.27 trillion market cap. Shares are changing hands at 47 times earnings (P/E) and 53 times free cash flow (P/FCF). There's just no other way to look at it -- Amazon's stock isn't cheap right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家在线零售商和云计算创新者确实在华尔街达到了一个高位。它是备受推崇的 “七大巨头” 股票之一，市值为 2.27 万亿美元。股票的市盈率 (P/E) 为 47 倍，自由现金流市盈率 (P/FCF) 为 53 倍。没有其他方式可以看待这一点——亚马逊的股票现在并不便宜。</p>
</div><h2>This market-beating stock never looks cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这只超越市场的股票从未显得便宜</h2>
</div><p>Then again, this stock never seems like a bargain. It doesn't really matter what metrics you apply to the chart -- Amazon shares feel expensive most of the time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这只股票似乎从来没有像个便宜货。无论你应用什么指标来分析图表——亚马逊的股票大多数时候都显得昂贵。</p>
</div><p>The chunky price-to-earnings ratio is about the lowest it's been in the last 15 years:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率大约是过去 15 年来最低的：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b7e6b0c93876adb43df0e261153f09d8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b7e6b0c93876adb43df0e261153f09d8.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The cash flow ratio is also low from a historical perspective. In this view, Amazon stock felt affordable after the subprime meltdown of 2008-2009 and again as the cloud computing segment turned profitable in the mid-2010s, but Amazon also depleted its cash profits in 2013 and 2021. Data center equipment, world-class shipping services, and upgraded headquarters can be expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从历史角度来看，现金流比率也很低。从这个角度看，亚马逊的股票在 2008-2009 年次贷危机后和 2010 年代中期云计算部门盈利时显得可负担，但亚马逊在 2013 年和 2021 年也耗尽了现金利润。数据中心设备、一流的运输服务和升级的总部可能很昂贵。</p>
</div><p>In the end, Amazon's average P/FCF over the last decade and a half stands at 108:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，亚马逊过去 15 年的平均自由现金流市盈率 (P/FCF) 为 108：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/682b41686e6e418753203af36fe1a8b2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/682b41686e6e418753203af36fe1a8b2.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Price to Free Cash Flow data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 自由现金流市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>And I really don't have to remind you that the stock delivered exceptional returns anyway, right? The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.24%) rose 424% in the 15-year period I've highlighted, but Amazon raced ahead with a 3,070% gain:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而我真的不需要提醒你，这只股票无论如何都提供了卓越的回报，对吧？<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.24%) 在我强调的 15 年期间上涨了 424%，而亚马逊则以 3070% 的涨幅遥遥领先：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/382919f13c810aeaad27b009e8e4f798.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/382919f13c810aeaad27b009e8e4f798.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>&#34;Perfect timing&#34; is a real thing. Nobody knows how to achieve it.</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>“完美时机” 是真实存在的。没有人知道如何实现它。</h2>
</div><p>I agree that it makes a difference when you nail the perfect time to buy any particular stock. If you grabbed Amazon shares on the right day in June 2009 instead of six months later, you'd have a 5,550% return in your pocket instead. That's a much better result.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我同意，当你抓住了购买特定股票的完美时机时，确实会有所不同。如果你在 2009 年 6 月的正确日子购买了亚马逊的股票，而不是六个月后，你的回报将是 5550%。这是一个更好的结果。</p>
</div><p>But nobody knows how to pinpoint those perfect buy-in dates. Warren Buffett is the first to admit that he can't see &#34;what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但没有人知道如何准确找到这些完美的买入日期。沃伦·巴菲特是第一个承认他无法预测 “股票市场在接下来的六个月、下一年或接下来的两年会发生什么” 的人。</p>
</div><p>That uncertainty applies to the market as a whole and to each individual stock. The best any investor can do is pick up shares of great companies when it seems to make sense, then let the underlying business deliver profitable growth and shareholder returns in the long run. That's good enough for billionaires like Buffett, and more than fine for me. You should consider a similar approach, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种不确定性适用于整个市场以及每只个股。任何投资者能做的就是在看似合理的时候购买优秀公司的股票，然后让基础业务在长期内提供盈利增长和股东回报。这对像巴菲特这样的亿万富翁来说已经足够好，对我来说也完全可以。你也应该考虑类似的方法。</p>
</div><h2>Yes, you can buy Amazon today</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>是的，你今天可以购买亚马逊</h2>
</div><p>Maybe this isn't the best time ever to buy Amazon stock. But it's also not a <em>bad</em> time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许现在不是购买亚马逊股票的最佳时机。但这也不是一个_糟糕_的时机。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Amazon should benefit from a stronger economy, the continued artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and its recently launched drone delivery system. I'm talking about a world-class innovator with a flexible business plan, and the stock may never seem affordable but still provides winning returns over the years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，亚马逊应该会受益于更强劲的经济、持续的人工智能 (AI) 热潮以及其最近推出的无人机配送系统。我说的是一家拥有灵活商业计划的世界级创新者，尽管股票可能永远显得不便宜，但仍然在多年中提供了丰厚的回报。</p>
</div><p>So you shouldn't back up the truck, bet the farm, or put your whole nest egg into Amazon stock today. However, you might want to start a modest Amazon position if you haven't yet, using price-mitigating techniques such as buying in thirds or running an automated dollar-cost averaging plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以你不应该全力以赴，孤注一掷，或把你所有的积蓄都投入到亚马逊股票中。然而，如果你还没有开始，可以考虑以适度的方式建立亚马逊的持仓，使用分批购买或自动定投等价格缓解技术。</p>
</div><p>The road ahead may be bumpy, but you don't want to watch from the sidelines as Amazon keeps treating its shareholders to market-beating returns in the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前方的道路可能会崎岖不平，但你不想在一旁观看，亚马逊继续为其股东提供超越市场的长期回报。</p>
</div>

Is Amazon a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2025?

- 亚马逊股票在 2024 年上涨超过 46%，接近历史高点。  
- 目前市盈率为 47 倍，自 2008 年以来相对较低。  
- 尽管价格高昂，亚马逊仍有潜力，建议逐步建仓。

亚马逊在 2025 年是应该买入、卖出还是持有？