<p>如果你曾经在 <strong>麦当劳</strong>(MCD 0.10%) 遇到冰淇淋机坏了的烦恼，那么你就能理解 2024 年持有该公司股票的投资者所面临的头痛。令人失望的增长和疲弱的收益使得股票在一个狭窄的交易区间内波动，过去一年下跌约 1%，同时明显落后于大盘。</p>
<p>这家以标志性的金色拱门而闻名的餐饮巨头是否失去了一些光彩，还是在 2025 年有理由让投资者重新爱上麦当劳？</p>
<p>让我们讨论一下现在该如何处理这只股票。</p>
<h2><strong>现在买入或持有麦当劳股票的理由</strong></h2>
<p>麦当劳在 100 多个国家拥有超过 40,000 家餐厅，是全球最具识别度的消费品牌之一。这家快餐先锋不仅以提供高质量、价格合理的餐食而闻名，还在其辉煌的历史中为股东带来了丰厚的回报。实际上，过去 10 年该股票上涨了 293%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，最近的股价疲软反映出一些不尽如人意的财务趋势，至少与 2023 年的强劲表现相比。截止到 2024 年 9 月 30 日的前九个月，整体收入同比仅增长 2%，而调整后的每股收益（EPS）下降了 1%。一些持续的成本压力影响了运营利润率，而收入的疲软反映出国际市场的可比销售额下降，抵消了美国在最后一个季度 0.3% 的增长。</p>
<p>好消息是，预计根据麦当劳的 “加速拱门” 战略，这些关键数字将有所改善。该战略专注于更新营销以提升品牌吸引力和客户参与度，同时保持核心菜单项目的质量。</p>
<p>此外，该计划还加倍强调麦当劳成功的 “4D” 策略，旨在推动可持续增长：数字能力、得来速运营、外卖选项和新市场的发展。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI0NTEvbWNkb25hbGRzLXN0b2NrLW91dGxvb2stMjAyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI0NTEvbWNkb25hbGRzLXN0b2NrLW91dGxvb2stMjAyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>根据华尔街的共识，2025 年预计将是麦当劳增长反弹的一年，预计收入将增长 3.8%，调整后的每股收益将增长 6.8%，达到 12.61 美元。</p>
<p>最终，对公司能够恢复长期增长轨迹并实现更高收益充满信心的投资者，有充分理由在长期持有该股票。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024 年预测</th>
<th>2025 年预测</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>261 亿美元</td>
<td>270 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增长（同比）</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>11.81 美元</td>
<td>12.61 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益增长（同比）</td>
<td>(1.1%)</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<h2><strong>现在卖出麦当劳股票的理由</strong></h2>
<p>考虑到这家餐饮连锁店既是数百万忠实顾客的日常就餐选择，又是偶尔的奢侈享受，很难想象没有麦当劳的世界。从各方面来看，这家企业具备在未来几十年内蓬勃发展的所有条件。然而，在考虑股票作为投资时，重要的是要批判性地审视它，并思考可能出现的问题。</p>
<p>麦当劳在未来几年面临的一个挑战是，在竞争激烈的行业环境中保持和巩固其市场份额。如今，消费者在快餐类别中有更多选择，包括新概念，满足对更健康食品选择的需求。</p>
<p>另一个考虑因素是麦当劳的估值，股票的交易价格约为 2024 年共识每股收益的 25 倍，作为前瞻性市盈率。这一水平几乎与公司收益倍数的 10 年平均水平相匹配，表明市场对该股票的估值是合理的。令人担忧的是，考虑到低个位数范围内的温和增长前景，目前尚不清楚麦当劳的股票是否值得在当前环境中获得更高的收益溢价。</p>
<p>相信麦当劳已经过了其增长巅峰，并将在与 <strong>Chipotle</strong> 或新兴竞争者如 <strong>Cava Group</strong> 和 <strong>Sweetgreen</strong> 的竞争中挣扎的投资者，可能会考虑现在就抛售该股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e300ff432dd390d82c614db15cd1086.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e300ff432dd390d82c614db15cd1086.png"/></p>
<p>MCD 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>决策：观望策略是明智的选择</h2>
<p>我也认为接下来的几个季度对麦当劳来说至关重要，以证明它能够恢复到更强劲的财务业绩。市场将密切关注可比销售数据的改善和国际业务的复苏作为关键监测点。</p>
<p>鉴于近期的疲软和持续的不确定性，观望策略是明智的，直到 2025 年的趋势变得更加清晰。虽然长期股东可能会继续持有他们的头寸，但投资者可能会在股市的其他地方找到更具吸引力的机会。</p>

麦当劳

<p>麦当劳的股票在 2024 年面临挑战，下降了 1%，且收益令人失望。然而，2025 年的预测显示出反弹的迹象，预计收入增长为 3.8%，每股收益增长为 6.8%。该公司的 “加速拱门” 战略旨在提升品牌吸引力和客户参与度。尽管一些投资者可能因竞争压力和估值担忧而考虑出售，但建议采取观望态度，因为市场在关注未来几个季度的财务改善</p>

<p>If you've ever faced the frustration of finding the ice cream machine out of order at <strong>McDonald's</strong>(MCD 0.10%), you'll understand the headache investors holding the company's stock faced in 2024. Disappointing growth and weak earnings have kept shares in a tight trading range, down about 1% over the past year, while sharply underperforming the broader market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你曾经在 <strong>麦当劳</strong>(MCD 0.10%) 遇到冰淇淋机坏了的烦恼，那么你就能理解 2024 年持有该公司股票的投资者所面临的头痛。令人失望的增长和疲弱的收益使得股票在一个狭窄的交易区间内波动，过去一年下跌约 1%，同时明显落后于大盘。</p>
</div><p>Has this restaurant giant known for its iconic Golden Arches lost some of its luster, or are there reasons for investors in 2025 to start lovin' McDonald's again?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家以标志性的金色拱门而闻名的餐饮巨头是否失去了一些光彩，还是在 2025 年有理由让投资者重新爱上麦当劳？</p>
</div><p>Let's discuss what to do with the stock now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们讨论一下现在该如何处理这只股票。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The case to buy or hold McDonald's stock now</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>现在买入或持有麦当劳股票的理由</strong></h2>
</div><p>With more than 40,000 restaurant locations in over 100 countries, McDonald's is one of the most recognizable consumer brands worldwide. The fast-food pioneer has found success by not only building a reputation for serving quality meals at an affordable price, but also delivering spectacular shareholder returns over its storied history. Indeed, the stock is up 293% in the past 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麦当劳在 100 多个国家拥有超过 40,000 家餐厅，是全球最具识别度的消费品牌之一。这家快餐先锋不仅以提供高质量、价格合理的餐食而闻名，还在其辉煌的历史中为股东带来了丰厚的回报。实际上，过去 10 年该股票上涨了 293%。</p>
</div><p>That being said, the recent share price weakness reflects some underwhelming financial trends, at least in comparison to a stronger 2023. With results through the first nine months of 2024 for the period ended Sept. 30, total revenue was up just 2% year over year, as adjusted earnings per share (EPS) declined by -1%. Some ongoing cost pressures have impacted operating margins while the muted top line reflects a drop in international market comparable sales, outweighing a 0.3% growth in the U.S. during the last quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，最近的股价疲软反映出一些不尽如人意的财务趋势，至少与 2023 年的强劲表现相比。截止到 2024 年 9 月 30 日的前九个月，整体收入同比仅增长 2%，而调整后的每股收益（EPS）下降了 1%。一些持续的成本压力影响了运营利润率，而收入的疲软反映出国际市场的可比销售额下降，抵消了美国在最后一个季度 0.3% 的增长。</p>
</div><p>Favorably, there is an expectation for an improvement in these headline numbers based on McDonald's &#34;Accelerating the Arches&#34; strategy. The effort focuses on refreshed marketing to boost brand appeal and customer engagement while maintaining the quality of core menu items.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，预计根据麦当劳的 “加速拱门” 战略，这些关键数字将有所改善。该战略专注于更新营销以提升品牌吸引力和客户参与度，同时保持核心菜单项目的质量。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the plan doubles down on McDonald's &#34;4Ds&#34; of success, all aimed at propelling sustainable growth: digital capabilities, drive-thru operations, delivery options, and development of new markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，该计划还加倍强调麦当劳成功的 “4D” 策略，旨在推动可持续增长：数字能力、得来速运营、外卖选项和新市场的发展。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI0NTEvbWNkb25hbGRzLXN0b2NrLW91dGxvb2stMjAyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F802451%2Fmcdonalds-stock-outlook-2025.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>According to Wall Street consensus, 2025 is poised to mark a growth rebound for McDonald's, with projections showing a 3.8% increase in revenue as adjusted EPS strengthens by 6.8% to reach $12.61.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据华尔街的共识，2025 年预计将是麦当劳增长反弹的一年，预计收入将增长 3.8%，调整后的每股收益将增长 6.8%，达到 12.61 美元。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, investors confident in the company's ability to reclaim its long-term growth trajectory and deliver higher earnings have a great reason to buy and hold the stock for the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，对公司能够恢复长期增长轨迹并实现更高收益充满信心的投资者，有充分理由在长期持有该股票。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2024 Estimate</th>
<th>2025 Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue</td>
<td>$26.1 billion</td>
<td>$27 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Revenue growth (YOY)</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$11.81</td>
<td>$12.61</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS growth (YOY)</td>
<td>(1.1%)</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024 年预测</th>
<th>2025 年预测</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>261 亿美元</td>
<td>270 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增长（同比）</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>11.81 美元</td>
<td>12.61 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益增长（同比）</td>
<td>(1.1%)</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Yahoo Finance. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The case to sell McDonald's stock now</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>现在卖出麦当劳股票的理由</strong></h2>
</div><p>It's difficult to envision a world without McDonald's, considering how the restaurant chain serves as both a regular dining staple and an occasional indulgence for millions of loyal customers worldwide. By all indications, the business has all the pieces in place to thrive for many decades to come. Still, when considering a stock as an investment, it's important to examine it critically and think about what could go wrong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这家餐饮连锁店既是数百万忠实顾客的日常就餐选择，又是偶尔的奢侈享受，很难想象没有麦当劳的世界。从各方面来看，这家企业具备在未来几十年内蓬勃发展的所有条件。然而，在考虑股票作为投资时，重要的是要批判性地审视它，并思考可能出现的问题。</p>
</div><p>One challenge for McDonald's over the next several years will be to maintain and consolidate its market share in what is an intensely competitive industry landscape. Consumers today have more options than ever in the quick-service restaurant category, including new concepts capitalizing on the demand for healthier food options.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麦当劳在未来几年面临的一个挑战是，在竞争激烈的行业环境中保持和巩固其市场份额。如今，消费者在快餐类别中有更多选择，包括新概念，满足对更健康食品选择的需求。</p>
</div><p>Another consideration is McDonald's valuation, with shares trading around 25 times its 2024 consensus EPS as a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This level nearly matches the 10-year average for the company's earnings multiple, suggesting the stock is fairly valued by the market. The concern is that given the modest growth outlook in the low-single-digit range, it's unclear whether McDonald's stock deserves a larger earnings premium in the current environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个考虑因素是麦当劳的估值，股票的交易价格约为 2024 年共识每股收益的 25 倍，作为前瞻性市盈率。这一水平几乎与公司收益倍数的 10 年平均水平相匹配，表明市场对该股票的估值是合理的。令人担忧的是，考虑到低个位数范围内的温和增长前景，目前尚不清楚麦当劳的股票是否值得在当前环境中获得更高的收益溢价。</p>
</div><p>Investors who believe McDonald's is past its peak growth and will struggle to remain relevant next to higher-growth industry peers like <strong>Chipotle</strong> or emerging players such as <strong>Cava Group</strong> and <strong>Sweetgreen</strong> could consider moving on from the stock now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相信麦当劳已经过了其增长巅峰，并将在与 <strong>Chipotle</strong> 或新兴竞争者如 <strong>Cava Group</strong> 和 <strong>Sweetgreen</strong> 的竞争中挣扎的投资者，可能会考虑现在就抛售该股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e300ff432dd390d82c614db15cd1086.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e300ff432dd390d82c614db15cd1086.png"/></p>
<p>MCD PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MCD 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>The decision: A wait-and-see approach makes sense</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>决策：观望策略是明智的选择</h2>
</div><p>I also believe the next few quarters will be critical for McDonald's to demonstrate it can get back on track with stronger financial results. The market will be watching closely for improved comparable sales data and a recovery in the international business as key monitoring points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我也认为接下来的几个季度对麦当劳来说至关重要，以证明它能够恢复到更强劲的财务业绩。市场将密切关注可比销售数据的改善和国际业务的复苏作为关键监测点。</p>
</div><p>Given the recent weakness and lingering uncertainties, a wait-and-see approach makes sense until 2025 trends become clearer. While longtime shareholders can likely continue holding their positions, investors might find more compelling opportunities elsewhere in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于近期的疲软和持续的不确定性，观望策略是明智的，直到 2025 年的趋势变得更加清晰。虽然长期股东可能会继续持有他们的头寸，但投资者可能会在股市的其他地方找到更具吸引力的机会。</p>
</div>

麦当劳的股票在 2025 年是应该买入、卖出还是持有？