<p>目前制药行业最大的讨论点围绕着被称为胰高血糖素样肽-1（GLP-1）激动剂的治疗方法。GLP-1 激动剂用于治疗糖尿病和慢性体重管理，尽管研究表明这些药物可能在睡眠呼吸暂停、肾脏疾病和心血管并发症等领域有其他应用。</p>
<p>目前，最热门的 GLP-1 治疗药物是 Ozempic。丹麦制药巨头 <strong>诺和诺德公司</strong>（Novo Nordisk）是 Ozempic 以及包括 Wegovy、Rybelsus 和 Saxenda 在内的兄弟 GLP-1 药物的幕后推手。你可能会认为，考虑到围绕医疗保健最大机会之一的如此强大的产品阵容，诺和诺德的股票应该会飙升。</p>
<p>然而，事实远非如此。我将详细分析诺和诺德最近的一则消息为何导致其股票暴跌。此外，我还将探讨现在是否是买入的机会，或者应该逃离。</p>
<h2>诺和诺德股票发生了什么？</h2>
<p>12 月 20 日，诺和诺德宣布了其新 GLP-1 候选药物 CagriSema 的三期临床试验结果。CagriSema 这个名字只是药物中两种主要成分的组合：cagrilintide 和 semaglutide。值得注意的是，semaglutide 是 Ozempic、Wegovy 和 Rybelsus 的主要成分。根据研究结果，服用 CagriSema 的患者平均体重减少了高达 22.7%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/68ce90f25ed36c91347416de44723383.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/68ce90f25ed36c91347416de44723383.png"/></p>
<p>NVO 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>截至 12 月 30 日，诺和诺德的股票在 CagriSema 研究结果公布后下跌了近 17%。显然，投资者对这项试验的结果并不满意。</p>
<h2>这一发展为何重要？</h2>
<p>你可能在想，投资者在诺和诺德最新临床更新后为何会如此反应。在我看来，有两个主要原因：</p>
<ol>
<li>诺和诺德的管理层为 CagriSema 研究设定了 25% 的平均体重减少基准。如前所述，服用 CagriSema 的患者整体仅经历了约 23% 的体重减少。然而，值得注意的是，大约 40% 的患者 “达到了 25% 或更多的体重减轻”。</li>
<li>我认为投资者对 CagriSema 结果感到不安的第二个原因与诺和诺德在减肥领域的主要竞争对手 <strong>礼来</strong> 最近发布的一项研究有关。礼来是 GLP-1 治疗药物 Mounjaro 和 Zepbound 的制造商。为了比较，Mounjaro 基本上是礼来对 Ozempic 的回应，而 Zepbound 则是该公司对 Wegovy 的回应。在 12 月 4 日发布的一项研究中，礼来发现服用 Zepbound 的患者平均体重减少了 20%，而服用 Wegovy 的患者平均体重减少了大约 14%。考虑到这些数据，可以说 CagriSema 并不优于 Zepbound，这使得一些投资者质疑诺和诺德的临床管道的强度。</li>
</ol>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI0Mzgvc2VtYWdsdXRpZGUtbWVkaWNhdGlvbi1pbi1ib3guanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI0Mzgvc2VtYWdsdXRpZGUtbWVkaWNhdGlvbi1pbi1ib3guanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>现在诺和诺德的股票值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>从表面上看，CagriSema 试验的结果似乎不尽如人意。但正如我常常鼓励投资者做的那样，重要的是要放眼大局，考虑更广泛的背景。</p>
<p>在 2021 年的一项研究中，服用 semaglutide 的患者在 68 周的试验期间平均体重减少了 14.9%。因此，即使 CagriSema 在三期试验中未能达到其目标，但可以说它在与 semaglutide（即 Wegovy 和 Ozempic）进行基准比较时，仍然是一种更强的治疗方法。</p>
<p>在我看来，我认为诺和诺德股票的急剧抛售是情绪驱动的恐慌行为。归根结底，我认为 CagriSema 将在长期内成为诺和诺德的一款重磅药物。目前，公司只需回到起点，调整其一些研究和开发（R&amp;D）协议，以提高 CagriSema 的疗效，然后再向食品药品监督管理局（FDA）申请批准。</p>
<p>现在，诺和诺德的股票以 22.5 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）交易——这是超过一年来的最低水平。我认为现在是一个绝佳的机会，可以在股价下跌时购买诺和诺德的股票，如果你是现有投资者，可以降低你的成本基础，或者如果你一直在关注这家公司，可以开始建立头寸。</p>
<p>总的来说，诺和诺德的长期论点仍然成立，我认为该公司将在未来几年继续在 GLP-1 领域保持领先地位。</p>

礼来

诺和诺德公司

<p>诺和诺德公司的股票在其 GLP-1 候选药物 CagriSema 的三期试验结果令人失望后下跌了近 17%。该试验的平均减重为 22.7%，低于管理层设定的 25% 的目标。此下降还受到礼来的 Zepbound 竞争数据的影响，后者显示出更优的结果。尽管面临挫折，一些分析师认为 CagriSema 仍可能成为一种强有力的治疗选择，相较于现有的治疗方案。由于该股票的市盈率较低，投资者可能是考虑逢低买入的好时机</p>

<p>The biggest talking point in the pharmaceutical industry at the moment revolves around treatments known as glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists. GLP-1 agonists are used to treat diabetes and chronic weight management, although research suggests these medications could have other applications in areas such as sleep apnea, kidney disease, and cardiovascular complications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前制药行业最大的讨论点围绕着被称为胰高血糖素样肽-1（GLP-1）激动剂的治疗方法。GLP-1 激动剂用于治疗糖尿病和慢性体重管理，尽管研究表明这些药物可能在睡眠呼吸暂停、肾脏疾病和心血管并发症等领域有其他应用。</p>
</div><p>At the moment, the hottest GLP-1 treatment is Ozempic. Danish pharmaceutical leader <strong>Novo Nordisk</strong>(NVO 0.34%) is the brains behind Ozempic, as well as sibling GLP-1 medications including Wegovy, Rybelsus, and Saxenda. You'd think with such a robust lineup of options surrounding one of healthcare's biggest opportunities, shares of Novo Nordisk would be soaring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，最热门的 GLP-1 治疗药物是 Ozempic。丹麦制药巨头 <strong>诺和诺德公司</strong>（Novo Nordisk）是 Ozempic 以及包括 Wegovy、Rybelsus 和 Saxenda 在内的兄弟 GLP-1 药物的幕后推手。你可能会认为，考虑到围绕医疗保健最大机会之一的如此强大的产品阵容，诺和诺德的股票应该会飙升。</p>
</div><p>However, this is far from the case. I'm going to break down why a recent piece of news from Novo Nordisk caused the stock to tank. Moreover, I'll explore if now is an opportunity to buy the dip, or run for the hills.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，事实远非如此。我将详细分析诺和诺德最近的一则消息为何导致其股票暴跌。此外，我还将探讨现在是否是买入的机会，或者应该逃离。</p>
</div><h2>What happened with Novo Nordisk stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>诺和诺德股票发生了什么？</h2>
</div><p>On Dec. 20, Novo announced results from a phase 3 clinical trial surrounding one of its new GLP-1 candidates, called CagriSema. The name CagriSema is simply an amalgamation of the two primary ingredients in the drug: cagrilintide and semaglutide. Of note, semaglutide is the leading ingredient in Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus. Per the results of the study, patients who took CagriSema reached an averaged weight reduction of up to 22.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月 20 日，诺和诺德宣布了其新 GLP-1 候选药物 CagriSema 的三期临床试验结果。CagriSema 这个名字只是药物中两种主要成分的组合：cagrilintide 和 semaglutide。值得注意的是，semaglutide 是 Ozempic、Wegovy 和 Rybelsus 的主要成分。根据研究结果，服用 CagriSema 的患者平均体重减少了高达 22.7%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/68ce90f25ed36c91347416de44723383.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/68ce90f25ed36c91347416de44723383.png"/></p>
<p>NVO data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVO 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>As of Dec. 30, shares of Novo has declined by nearly 17% following the announcement of the CagriSema study. Clearly, investors were not pleased with the outcome of this trial.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 12 月 30 日，诺和诺德的股票在 CagriSema 研究结果公布后下跌了近 17%。显然，投资者对这项试验的结果并不满意。</p>
</div><h2>Why is this development important?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这一发展为何重要？</h2>
</div><p>You're probably wondering <em>why</em> investors reacted the way they did following Novo's latest clinical update. In my eyes, there are two main reasons:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能在想，投资者在诺和诺德最新临床更新后为何会如此反应。在我看来，有两个主要原因：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Novo's management had set a benchmark of 25% average weight reduction for the CagriSema study. As mentioned, the entire population of patients taking CagriSema only experienced about a 23% reduction in weight. It is important to note, however, that roughly 40% of patients &#34;reached a weight loss of 25% or more.&#34;</li>
<li>The second reason I think investors were spooked by the CagriSema results is related to a recent study published by Novo's top rival in the weight loss space, <strong>Eli Lilly</strong>. Lilly is the maker of GLP-1 treatments Mounjaro and Zepbound. For comparison’s sake, Mounjaro is essentially Lilly's answer to Ozempic, while Zepbound is the company's response to Wegovy. In a study published on Dec. 4, Lilly found that patients taking Zepbound experienced an average weight reduction of 20% versus those who took Wegovy reached an average weight loss of roughly 14%. When taking these figures into account, there's an argument to be made that CagriSema is not superior to Zepbound, leading some investors to question the strength of Novo's clinical pipeline.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>诺和诺德的管理层为 CagriSema 研究设定了 25% 的平均体重减少基准。如前所述，服用 CagriSema 的患者整体仅经历了约 23% 的体重减少。然而，值得注意的是，大约 40% 的患者 “达到了 25% 或更多的体重减轻”。</li>
<li>我认为投资者对 CagriSema 结果感到不安的第二个原因与诺和诺德在减肥领域的主要竞争对手 <strong>礼来</strong> 最近发布的一项研究有关。礼来是 GLP-1 治疗药物 Mounjaro 和 Zepbound 的制造商。为了比较，Mounjaro 基本上是礼来对 Ozempic 的回应，而 Zepbound 则是该公司对 Wegovy 的回应。在 12 月 4 日发布的一项研究中，礼来发现服用 Zepbound 的患者平均体重减少了 20%，而服用 Wegovy 的患者平均体重减少了大约 14%。考虑到这些数据，可以说 CagriSema 并不优于 Zepbound，这使得一些投资者质疑诺和诺德的临床管道的强度。</li>
</ol>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI0Mzgvc2VtYWdsdXRpZGUtbWVkaWNhdGlvbi1pbi1ib3guanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F802438%2Fsemaglutide-medication-in-box.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Novo Nordisk stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在诺和诺德的股票值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>On the surface, the results from the CagriSema trial appear underwhelming. But as I often encourage investors to do, it's important to zoom out and consider the bigger picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，CagriSema 试验的结果似乎不尽如人意。但正如我常常鼓励投资者做的那样，重要的是要放眼大局，考虑更广泛的背景。</p>
</div><p>In a study from 2021, patients taking semaglutide experienced an average weight reduction of 14.9% over the course of a 68-week trial period. So even though CagriSema fell short of its goal in the phase 3 trial, there's an argument to be made that it is still a stronger treatment when benchmarked against semaglutide (i.e., Wegovy and Ozempic).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 年的一项研究中，服用 semaglutide 的患者在 68 周的试验期间平均体重减少了 14.9%。因此，即使 CagriSema 在三期试验中未能达到其目标，但可以说它在与 semaglutide（即 Wegovy 和 Ozempic）进行基准比较时，仍然是一种更强的治疗方法。</p>
</div><p>To me, I see the precipitous sell-off in Novo stock as emotional, panic-driven behavior. At the end of the day, I think CagriSema will become a blockbuster drug for Novo in the long run. For now, the company simply needs to go back to the drawing board and tweak some of its research and development (R&amp;D) protocols in order to improve CagriSema's efficacy before it reaches approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，我认为诺和诺德股票的急剧抛售是情绪驱动的恐慌行为。归根结底，我认为 CagriSema 将在长期内成为诺和诺德的一款重磅药物。目前，公司只需回到起点，调整其一些研究和开发（R&amp;D）协议，以提高 CagriSema 的疗效，然后再向食品药品监督管理局（FDA）申请批准。</p>
</div><p>Right now, Novo stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 22.5 -- its lowest level in well over a year. I think now is a terrific opportunity to scoop up shares of Novo on the dip and lower your cost basis if you're an existing investor, or initiate a position if you've been following the company for a while.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，诺和诺德的股票以 22.5 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）交易——这是超过一年来的最低水平。我认为现在是一个绝佳的机会，可以在股价下跌时购买诺和诺德的股票，如果你是现有投资者，可以降低你的成本基础，或者如果你一直在关注这家公司，可以开始建立头寸。</p>
</div><p>All told, Novo's long-term thesis still holds up, and I think the company will remain a leader in the GLP-1 space for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，诺和诺德的长期论点仍然成立，我认为该公司将在未来几年继续在 GLP-1 领域保持领先地位。</p>
</div>

现在是否应该逢低买入诺和诺德公司的股票？