<p>在 2024 年，<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.38%) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -0.69%) 的云计算业务部门都实现了强劲增长。虽然微软的 Azure 收入增长更高，但在 2024 年，亚马逊的股票表现更佳。</p>
<p>让我们看看今年哪只股票可能成为更大的赢家。</p>
<h2>云计算增长</h2>
<p>云计算是人工智能（AI）崛起带来的最大增长领域之一，组织利用这些公司的服务来帮助构建自己的 AI 模型和应用程序。</p>
<p>亚马逊在 2006 年创建了云计算行业，当时推出了亚马逊网络服务（AWS），以加速为合作伙伴和附属公司开展的基础设施开发。如今，这一基础设施即服务业务是亚马逊最盈利的部门，远超其零售业务。在过去 12 个月中，AWS 产生了 364 亿美元的营业收入，而亚马逊的北美和国际业务则产生了 243 亿美元的营业收入。</p>
<p>目前，该公司在云计算领域的市场份额约为 31%，远超微软的 Azure 的 20%。上个季度，该部门的收入增长了 19%，而营业收入激增了 49%。增长主要得益于与 AI 相关的收入，增长幅度达到三位数。</p>
<p>亚马逊通过其 AWS 部门的多项服务从 AI 中获利，包括其 Bedrock 和 SageMaker 解决方案。通过 Bedrock，该公司为客户提供了一系列基础 AI 模型，客户可以将其作为起点来帮助构建 AI 应用程序。它提供的模型不仅来自自身，还包括 Anthropic、Cohere、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、Mistral 等公司。与此同时，SageMaker 是一个帮助客户构建和训练 AI 模型并将其投入生产的解决方案。</p>
<p>与此同时，亚马逊还制造专门为训练大型语言模型（LLMs）和 AI 推理设计的定制 AI 芯片，称为 Graviton 和 Trainium，这些芯片是通过其之前收购 Annapurna Labs 开发的。它有几家知名客户在使用其芯片，包括 <strong>苹果</strong>、Anthropic 和 <strong>SAP</strong>。</p>
<p>与此同时，Azure 一直是微软业务中增长最快的部分，上个季度收入增长了 33%。Azure 是一项基于消费的服务，受益于微软帮助客户构建自己的 AI 代理和助手。该公司表示，Azure 的 OpenAI 使用量在上个季度翻了一番，因为许多客户开始将应用程序从测试转向生产。它还指出，Azure AI 正在帮助增加其数据和分析服务的使用，包括 Azure Cosmos DB 和 Azure SQL DB。</p>
<p>目前，产能不足限制了增长，因为微软继续建设其 AI 基础设施以跟上需求。它预测 Azure 收入在 2024 财年第二季度（截至 12 月）将以不变货币增长 31% 至 32%，并将在财年下半年加速增长，因为其之前的资本支出（capex）将增加更多产能。</p>
<h2>超越云计算</h2>
<p>当然，亚马逊和微软不仅仅是它们的云业务。亚马逊仍然是全球最大的电子商务和物流公司。它还拥有 Prime Video 流媒体服务。</p>
<p>亚马逊的零售业务稳步增长，北美销售在上个季度增长了 9%，而国际销售增长了 12%。该公司正在利用 AI 和机器人技术通过提高仓库和物流效率来降低成本。</p>
<p>亚马逊在其高利润的赞助广告业务中也实现了强劲增长。这导致营业收入的增长大大超过了收入的增长，北美部门的营业收入增长了 33%，达到 57 亿美元，而国际部门的营业收入为 13 亿美元，而去年则出现了小幅亏损。</p>
<p>与此同时，微软在工作场所生产力工具中仍然是主导者，其 Microsoft Office 365 工具套件包括 Word、Excel 和 Powerpoint 等程序。其 Windows 个人计算操作系统也是一个庞大的业务。此外，它还拥有 LinkedIn、Xbox、GitHub 等其他业务。</p>
<p>该公司在其 Copilot 365 AI 代理方面有着强劲的增长机会。微软继续推进这些 AI 助手的功能，包括能够仅通过自然语言提示在 Excel 中使用 Python。每位企业用户每月 30 美元，加上 365 订阅，这为公司未来带来了巨大的收入机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI1MTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Mzc4MDk5NS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI1MTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Mzc4MDk5NS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>估值与结论</h2>
<p>在考虑未来估值时，值得注意的是微软和亚马逊的财年不同。亚马逊目前的前瞻市盈率（P/E）约为明年分析师预期的 36 倍（截至 2025 年 12 月），而微软的前瞻市盈率约为今年分析师预期的 32.5 倍（截至 2025 年 6 月）。因此，微软的股票相对便宜。它的收入增长也略快（上个季度增长 16%，而亚马逊为 11%）。</p>
<p>总体而言，我对这两只股票在 2025 年的前景都持乐观态度，并认为它们都将证明是长期赢家。然而，考虑到更便宜的估值、更快的收入增长以及在 AI 助手方面的巨大潜力，我在 2025 年稍微偏向微软。</p>

亚马逊

微软

<p>亚马逊和微软在 2024 年都在其云计算领域经历了显著增长，其中亚马逊的 AWS 在盈利能力和市场份额方面领先，市场份额为 31%，而微软的 Azure 则实现了 33% 的收入增长。亚马逊的人工智能相关服务为其增长做出了贡献，而微软则在扩展其人工智能基础设施。两家公司都在云服务之外进行多元化发展，亚马逊专注于电子商务和物流，而微软则专注于生产力工具。在估值方面，亚马逊的前瞻市盈率接近 36，而微软约为 32.5</p>

<p>Both <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.38%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.69%) saw strong growth in their cloud-computing business units in 2024. While Microsoft's Azure saw the higher revenue growth, it was Amazon's stock that outperformed in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年，<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.38%) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -0.69%) 的云计算业务部门都实现了强劲增长。虽然微软的 Azure 收入增长更高，但在 2024 年，亚马逊的股票表现更佳。</p>
</div><p>Let's see which stock could be the bigger winner this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们看看今年哪只股票可能成为更大的赢家。</p>
</div><h2>Cloud-computing growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>云计算增长</h2>
</div><p>Cloud computing has been one of the biggest areas of growth stemming from the rise in artificial intelligence (AI), as organizations use services from these companies to help build their own AI models and applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>云计算是人工智能（AI）崛起带来的最大增长领域之一，组织利用这些公司的服务来帮助构建自己的 AI 模型和应用程序。</p>
</div><p>Amazon created the cloud-computing industry back in 2006 when it launched Amazon Web Services (AWS) to help speed up the infrastructure development it had started doing for partners and affiliates. Today, this infrastructure-as-a service business is Amazon's most profitable segment, nicely exceeding its retail operations. On a trailing-12-month basis, AWS produced $36.4 billion in operating income, while Amazon's North American and international operations generated operating income of $24.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在 2006 年创建了云计算行业，当时推出了亚马逊网络服务（AWS），以加速为合作伙伴和附属公司开展的基础设施开发。如今，这一基础设施即服务业务是亚马逊最盈利的部门，远超其零售业务。在过去 12 个月中，AWS 产生了 364 亿美元的营业收入，而亚马逊的北美和国际业务则产生了 243 亿美元的营业收入。</p>
</div><p>Today, the company has about a 31% market share in the cloud-computing space, nicely ahead of Microsoft's Azure with a 20% share. Last quarter, the segment's revenue climbed 19%, while its operating income surged 49%. The increase was led by AI-related revenue, which rose by triple digits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，该公司在云计算领域的市场份额约为 31%，远超微软的 Azure 的 20%。上个季度，该部门的收入增长了 19%，而营业收入激增了 49%。增长主要得益于与 AI 相关的收入，增长幅度达到三位数。</p>
</div><p>Amazon is profiting from AI in its AWS segment through a number of services, including its Bedrock and SageMaker solutions. With Bedrock, the company provides its customers with a selection of foundational AI models that they can use as a starting point to help build AI applications. It offers models not just from itself but also from Anthropic, Cohere, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, Mistral, and others. SageMaker, meanwhile, is a solution to help customers build and train their AI models and then move them into production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊通过其 AWS 部门的多项服务从 AI 中获利，包括其 Bedrock 和 SageMaker 解决方案。通过 Bedrock，该公司为客户提供了一系列基础 AI 模型，客户可以将其作为起点来帮助构建 AI 应用程序。它提供的模型不仅来自自身，还包括 Anthropic、Cohere、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、Mistral 等公司。与此同时，SageMaker 是一个帮助客户构建和训练 AI 模型并将其投入生产的解决方案。</p>
</div><p>Amazon also makes custom AI chips designed specifically for training large language models (LLMs) and AI inference, called Graviton and Trainium, that were developed through its prior acquisition of Annapurna Labs. It has several well-known customers using its chips, including <strong>Apple</strong>, Anthropic, and <strong>SAP</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，亚马逊还制造专门为训练大型语言模型（LLMs）和 AI 推理设计的定制 AI 芯片，称为 Graviton 和 Trainium，这些芯片是通过其之前收购 Annapurna Labs 开发的。它有几家知名客户在使用其芯片，包括 <strong>苹果</strong>、Anthropic 和 <strong>SAP</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Azure, meanwhile, has been one of the fastest growing parts of Microsoft's business, with revenue jumping 33% last quarter. Azure is a consumption-based service that is nicely benefiting from Microsoft helping customers build their own AI agents and copilots. The company said Azure's OpenAI usage doubled last quarter as a number of customers began moving apps from test to production. It also noted that Azure AI is helping increase usage of its data and analytics services, Azure Cosmos DB and Azure SQL DB.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Azure 一直是微软业务中增长最快的部分，上个季度收入增长了 33%。Azure 是一项基于消费的服务，受益于微软帮助客户构建自己的 AI 代理和助手。该公司表示，Azure 的 OpenAI 使用量在上个季度翻了一番，因为许多客户开始将应用程序从测试转向生产。它还指出，Azure AI 正在帮助增加其数据和分析服务的使用，包括 Azure Cosmos DB 和 Azure SQL DB。</p>
</div><p>Currently, a lack of capacity is keeping growth restrained, as Microsoft continued to build its AI infrastructure to keep up with demand. It forecast Azure revenue to increase by 31% to 32% in constant currency in the fiscal second quarter (ended in December) and then to accelerate in the second half of its fiscal year as its prior capital expenditures (capex) kick in to add more capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，产能不足限制了增长，因为微软继续建设其 AI 基础设施以跟上需求。它预测 Azure 收入在 2024 财年第二季度（截至 12 月）将以不变货币增长 31% 至 32%，并将在财年下半年加速增长，因为其之前的资本支出（capex）将增加更多产能。</p>
</div><h2>Beyond the cloud</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超越云计算</h2>
</div><p>Amazon and Microsoft, of course, are more than just their cloud businesses. Amazon is still the world's largest e-commerce and logistics company. It also owns the Prime Video streaming service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，亚马逊和微软不仅仅是它们的云业务。亚马逊仍然是全球最大的电子商务和物流公司。它还拥有 Prime Video 流媒体服务。</p>
</div><p>The retail side of Amazon's business is growing solidly, with its North American sales rising by 9% last quarter, while internationally its sales rose 12%. The company is using AI and robotics to help lower costs by increasing warehouse and logics efficiencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的零售业务稳步增长，北美销售在上个季度增长了 9%，而国际销售增长了 12%。该公司正在利用 AI 和机器人技术通过提高仓库和物流效率来降低成本。</p>
</div><p>Amazon is also seeing strong growth in its higher-margin sponsored ad business. This led operating income growth to greatly outpace revenue growth in the quarter, with its North American segment seeing a 33% jump in operating income to $5.7 billion and its international segment seeing operating income of $1.3 billion compared to a small loss a year ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在其高利润的赞助广告业务中也实现了强劲增长。这导致营业收入的增长大大超过了收入的增长，北美部门的营业收入增长了 33%，达到 57 亿美元，而国际部门的营业收入为 13 亿美元，而去年则出现了小幅亏损。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft, meanwhile, is still the dominant player in workplace productivity tools with its Microsoft Office 365 suite of tools that include programs such as Word, Excel, and Powerpoint. Its Windows personal computing operating system is also a huge business. In addition, it owns LinkedIn, Xbox, GitHub, and other businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，微软在工作场所生产力工具中仍然是主导者，其 Microsoft Office 365 工具套件包括 Word、Excel 和 Powerpoint 等程序。其 Windows 个人计算操作系统也是一个庞大的业务。此外，它还拥有 LinkedIn、Xbox、GitHub 等其他业务。</p>
</div><p>The company has a robust growth opportunity with its Copilot 365 AI agents. Microsoft continues to advance what these AI pilots can do, including being able use Python in Excel with only natural language prompts. At $30 per enterprise user per month along with a 365 subscription, this is a big revenue opportunity for the company moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司在其 Copilot 365 AI 代理方面有着强劲的增长机会。微软继续推进这些 AI 助手的功能，包括能够仅通过自然语言提示在 Excel 中使用 Python。每位企业用户每月 30 美元，加上 365 订阅，这为公司未来带来了巨大的收入机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI1MTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Mzc4MDk5NS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F802518%2Fgettyimages-1483780995.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation and verdict</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值与结论</h2>
</div><p>When looking at forward valuations, it is worth noting that Microsoft and Amazon are on different fiscal years. Amazon currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just under 36 times next year's analyst estimates (ending in December 2025), while Microsoft is trading at just under 32.5 times this year's analyst estimates (ending in June 2025). So Microsoft is the cheaper stock. It is also growing its revenue a bit faster (16% last quarter versus 11% for Amazon).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑未来估值时，值得注意的是微软和亚马逊的财年不同。亚马逊目前的前瞻市盈率（P/E）约为明年分析师预期的 36 倍（截至 2025 年 12 月），而微软的前瞻市盈率约为今年分析师预期的 32.5 倍（截至 2025 年 6 月）。因此，微软的股票相对便宜。它的收入增长也略快（上个季度增长 16%，而亚马逊为 11%）。</p>
</div><p>Overall, I like both stocks heading into 2025 and think both will prove to be long-term winners. However, with a cheaper valuation, faster revenue growth, and a big potential opportunity with its AI copilots, I slightly prefer Microsoft between the two for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，我对这两只股票在 2025 年的前景都持乐观态度，并认为它们都将证明是长期赢家。然而，考虑到更便宜的估值、更快的收入增长以及在 AI 助手方面的巨大潜力，我在 2025 年稍微偏向微软。</p>
</div>

Microsoft vs. Amazon: Which Cloud-Computing Stock Will Outperform in 2025?

- 亚马逊和微软在 2024 年的云计算业务均实现强劲增长。  
- 亚马逊的 AWS 产生 364 亿美元的运营收入，市场份额为 31%。  
- 微软的 Azure 收入增长 33%，预计未来将加速增长。  

微软与亚马逊：哪只云计算股票将在 2025 年表现更佳？