<p>毫无疑问，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 是现代时代表现最好的股票之一，自 1997 年上市以来上涨了大约 300,000%。未来 30 年可能不会如此丰厚，但由于该公司进军云计算领域，这家电子商务巨头仍然是目前市场上最具前景的投资机会之一。</p>
<p>不过，这里还有一只更值得考虑加入你投资组合的成长股，那就是 <strong>优步科技</strong>（UBER 2.25%）。以下是原因。</p>
<h2>无论优步是原因还是结果，趋势都很乐观</h2>
<p>尽管创始人特拉维斯·卡拉尼克和加雷特·坎普并没有真正发明打车应用的概念，但他们被认为是将这一想法带入主流的人。消费者对这一概念的接受度也在不断提高。优步第三季度的收入增长达 20%，延续了已确立的趋势。而且它的盈利能力也在不断提升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/93c71c8c9fc5986b9b80633d2478ea50.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/93c71c8c9fc5986b9b80633d2478ea50.png"/></p>
<p>优步季度收入数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>分析师预计未来的收入和利润增长将持续。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI4MjYvMDEwMzI0LXViZXItcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI4MjYvMDEwMzI0LXViZXItcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：StockAnalysis.com。图表由作者制作。</p>
<p>然而，这一前进的进展只是持有优步股份的看涨论点的一部分，甚至不是最重要的部分。更重要的是，持续的销售和盈利增长背后的文化原因。也就是说，汽车拥有率正在下降。获得驾驶执照的情况也是如此。</p>
<p>美国联邦公路管理局的数据通过法律信息网站 Consumer Shield 进一步阐明了这一情况，显示国内汽车注册数量从 2001 年的峰值 1.38 亿减少到 2022 年的近 100 百万的多年来低点。COVID-19 疫情及其后果至少在一定程度上导致了这一领域的近期疲软。但这一数字在疫情爆发之前就已经在持续下降。</p>
<p>你可能会看到或听到不同的数据。特别是，联邦公路管理局常被引用的数据显示，截至 2022 年，美国道路上实际上有 2.834 亿辆注册车辆。然而，这一统计数字包括公共汽车和重型卡车，这些车辆通常由政府和企业用于商业或公共服务目的。</p>
<p>人们车道上的车辆数量也相对停滞不前……至少在美国家庭的比例上。Consumer Shield 补充道，截至 2022 年，典型的美国家庭拥有 1.83 辆汽车，延续了自 2001 年 1.89 辆的轻微下降趋势。</p>
<p>在优步扩展的其他国家也可以看到类似的动态。</p>
<h2>年轻人随着年龄的增长正在逐渐接受不拥有汽车的生活方式</h2>
<p>这种微弱的下降趋势似乎不太可能在短期内逆转。最近由汽车共享网络 Zipcar 进行的一项调查显示，超过三分之一的美国人考虑到 2030 年不再拥有任何车辆。事实上，近五分之一的受访者表示，他们非常认真地考虑摆脱汽车，转而使用替代交通方式。</p>
<p>其他数据也强调了这种日益增长的兴趣缺失。例如，Hedges Company 预测，尽管经济良好且后疫情稳定，2023 年美国轻型车辆（轿车、SUV，而非商用卡车）的总销售量预计将达到 1500 万辆。这一数字高于 2023 年的 1550 万辆，但仍明显低于 2016 年的 1740 万辆峰值。</p>
<p>年轻消费者对车辆拥有的兴趣低于他们的父母……甚至对获得驾驶执照的兴趣也在下降。美国交通部的数据表明，截至 2022 年，只有大约四分之一的 16 岁美国人持有驾驶执照，而 1983 年这一年龄组的持证比例为一半。即使是 18 岁驾驶员的数量也从当时的 80% 下降到现在的 60%。</p>
<p>造成这种曾经不太可能的动态的主要原因是什么？成本是一个原因；新车的平均月供现在超过 700 美元。缺乏需求是另一个原因。年轻一代完全习惯于通过计算机寻找娱乐和维持社交生活。像优步这样的打车服务使得在这种日益普遍的环境中生活和运作成为可能。</p>
<p>而且，这种动态在世界其他地方也很明显。</p>
<h2>两只股票都不错，但优步的股票更好</h2>
<p>这并不是说在此时拥有亚马逊股票是个错误。它仍然是一个很好的投资。事实上，在许多方面，亚马逊也受益于推动优步增长的同一基础动态。那就是越来越多的消费者对不拥有或甚至不驾驶车辆感到满意。这些人同样乐于在线购物，并让亚马逊想办法将产品送到他们的家门口。（与此同时，亚马逊的云计算业务正在经历不同的增长趋势。）</p>
<p>不过，在这两个股票中，优步无疑是更具前景的投资，因为许多投资者仍然低估了其文化顺风的强度以及这种趋势可能持续的时间。为了提供一个视角，市场研究机构 Future Market Insight 认为，全球打车市场预计将在 2034 年前以 15.4% 的年均增速增长。</p>
<p>市场领导者优步有望获得至少其应有的市场份额。</p>

优步

<p>这篇文章讨论了优步科技作为成长股与亚马逊的潜力比较。尽管亚马逊自上市以来表现出色，但优步正以 20% 的收入增长和日益增加的盈利能力获得关注。年轻一代对汽车拥有权和驾驶兴趣的下降支持了优步的商业模式。分析师预测优步将持续增长，使其成为与亚马逊并列的有吸引力的投资选择，而亚马逊也受益于消费者行为的变化</p>

<p>There are no two ways about it. <strong>Amazon</strong> is one of the modern era's best-performing stocks, up roughly 300,000% since its 1997 public offering. The next 30 years aren't likely to be nearly as rewarding, but thanks to the company's foray into cloud computing, the e-commerce giant is still one of the market's most promising investment prospects at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 是现代时代表现最好的股票之一，自 1997 年上市以来上涨了大约 300,000%。未来 30 年可能不会如此丰厚，但由于该公司进军云计算领域，这家电子商务巨头仍然是目前市场上最具前景的投资机会之一。</p>
</div><p>There's a better growth stock to consider adding to your portfolio here, however. That's <strong>Uber Technologies</strong>(UBER 2.25%). Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这里还有一只更值得考虑加入你投资组合的成长股，那就是 <strong>优步科技</strong>（UBER 2.25%）。以下是原因。</p>
</div><h2>Whether Uber is the cause or the result, the trends are promising</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>无论优步是原因还是结果，趋势都很乐观</h2>
</div><p>Although founders Travis Kalanick and Garrett Camp didn't exactly invent the premise of ride-hailing apps, they are fairly credited with bringing the idea into the mainstream. It's still catching on with consumers, too. Uber's third-quarter revenue growth of 20% extends well-established trends. And it's increasingly profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管创始人特拉维斯·卡拉尼克和加雷特·坎普并没有真正发明打车应用的概念，但他们被认为是将这一想法带入主流的人。消费者对这一概念的接受度也在不断提高。优步第三季度的收入增长达 20%，延续了已确立的趋势。而且它的盈利能力也在不断提升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/93c71c8c9fc5986b9b80633d2478ea50.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/93c71c8c9fc5986b9b80633d2478ea50.png"/></p>
<p>UBER Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>优步季度收入数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect more top- and bottom-line growth well into the future, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计未来的收入和利润增长将持续。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI4MjYvMDEwMzI0LXViZXItcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F802826%2F010324-uber-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: StockAnalysis.com. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：StockAnalysis.com。图表由作者制作。</p>
</div><p>This forward progress is only part of the bullish argument for owning a stake in Uber, however, and not even the most important part. Far more important is the underlying cultural reason for this continued sales and earnings growth. That is, car ownership is on the decline. Ditto for even getting a driver's license.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一前进的进展只是持有优步股份的看涨论点的一部分，甚至不是最重要的部分。更重要的是，持续的销售和盈利增长背后的文化原因。也就是说，汽车拥有率正在下降。获得驾驶执照的情况也是如此。</p>
</div><p>Numbers from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration reported by legal information website Consumer Shield flesh out the story, indicating that domestic car registrations have dwindled from 2001's peak of 138 million to a multi-decade low of just under 100 million in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic and its fallout are responsible for at least some of the more recent weakness on this front. But this count has been regularly declining since well before the contagion took hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国联邦公路管理局的数据通过法律信息网站 Consumer Shield 进一步阐明了这一情况，显示国内汽车注册数量从 2001 年的峰值 1.38 亿减少到 2022 年的近 100 百万的多年来低点。COVID-19 疫情及其后果至少在一定程度上导致了这一领域的近期疲软。但这一数字在疫情爆发之前就已经在持续下降。</p>
</div><p>You may see or hear differing data. Particularly, a commonly cited figure from the Federal Highway Administration suggests that as of 2022 there were actually 283.4 million registered vehicles on U.S. roads. This count includes buses and heavy-duty trucks, however, which are generally owned by governments and corporations for commercial or public-service purposes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能会看到或听到不同的数据。特别是，联邦公路管理局常被引用的数据显示，截至 2022 年，美国道路上实际上有 2.834 亿辆注册车辆。然而，这一统计数字包括公共汽车和重型卡车，这些车辆通常由政府和企业用于商业或公共服务目的。</p>
</div><p>The number of vehicles sitting in peoples' driveways is also relatively stagnant...at least as a percentage of U.S. households. Consumer Shield adds that as of 2022, the typical American household owns 1.83 automobiles, extending a slight downtrend from 2001's peak of 1.89.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们车道上的车辆数量也相对停滞不前……至少在美国家庭的比例上。Consumer Shield 补充道，截至 2022 年，典型的美国家庭拥有 1.83 辆汽车，延续了自 2001 年 1.89 辆的轻微下降趋势。</p>
</div><p>A similar dynamic is evident outside of the U.S. as well, where Uber is expanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在优步扩展的其他国家也可以看到类似的动态。</p>
</div><h2>Young adults are normalizing a lack of car ownership as they age</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>年轻人随着年龄的增长正在逐渐接受不拥有汽车的生活方式</h2>
</div><p>It seems unlikely this shallow downtrend is set to reverse anytime soon. A recent poll performed by car-sharing network Zipcar indicates that more than one out of every three Americans is considering not owning any vehicle by 2030. Nearly one out of every five of these respondents, in fact, says they they're very serious about getting rid of their cars and using alternative forms of transportation instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种微弱的下降趋势似乎不太可能在短期内逆转。最近由汽车共享网络 Zipcar 进行的一项调查显示，超过三分之一的美国人考虑到 2030 年不再拥有任何车辆。事实上，近五分之一的受访者表示，他们非常认真地考虑摆脱汽车，转而使用替代交通方式。</p>
</div><p>And other data underscores this growing disinterest. For instance, Hedges Company predicts the total sales of light vehicles (sedans, SUVs, not commercial trucks) within the United States is on pace to reach a modest 15.9 million units this year despite the decent economy and greater post-COVID stability. That's up from 2023's count of 15.5 million, but still markedly below 2016's peak of 17.4 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他数据也强调了这种日益增长的兴趣缺失。例如，Hedges Company 预测，尽管经济良好且后疫情稳定，2023 年美国轻型车辆（轿车、SUV，而非商用卡车）的总销售量预计将达到 1500 万辆。这一数字高于 2023 年的 1550 万辆，但仍明显低于 2016 年的 1740 万辆峰值。</p>
</div><p>Younger consumers are growing up with less interest in vehicle ownership than their parents, too...or even getting a driver's license. Numbers from the U.S. Department of Transportation indicate that as of 2022 only about one-fourth of the nation's 16-year-olds held a license, versus half of this age group in 1983. Even the number of 18-year-old drivers has tumbled from 80% back then to only 60% now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年轻消费者对车辆拥有的兴趣低于他们的父母……甚至对获得驾驶执照的兴趣也在下降。美国交通部的数据表明，截至 2022 年，只有大约四分之一的 16 岁美国人持有驾驶执照，而 1983 年这一年龄组的持证比例为一半。即使是 18 岁驾驶员的数量也从当时的 80% 下降到现在的 60%。</p>
</div><p>The chief reasons for this once-unlikely dynamic? Cost is one; the average payment for a new car now stands at over $700 per month. A lack of need is another. Younger generations are completely comfortable with finding entertainment and maintaining a social life via a computer. A ride-hailing service like Uber's makes it possible to live and function in an environment where such a perspective is increasingly the norm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>造成这种曾经不太可能的动态的主要原因是什么？成本是一个原因；新车的平均月供现在超过 700 美元。缺乏需求是另一个原因。年轻一代完全习惯于通过计算机寻找娱乐和维持社交生活。像优步这样的打车服务使得在这种日益普遍的环境中生活和运作成为可能。</p>
</div><p>And again, this dynamic is evident in other parts of the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，这种动态在世界其他地方也很明显。</p>
</div><h2>Both stocks are good, but Uber stock is better</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>两只股票都不错，但优步的股票更好</h2>
</div><p>None of this to suggest owning Amazon stock at this point in time is a mistake. It's still a great play. In fact, in many ways Amazon benefits from the same underlying dynamic that's driving Uber's growth. That's the growing number of consumers that are content without owning or even driving a vehicle. These people are similarly content to shop online and let Amazon figure out how to get products to their doorstep. (Meanwhile, Amazon's cloud computing workhorse is riding a different growth trend.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是说在此时拥有亚马逊股票是个错误。它仍然是一个很好的投资。事实上，在许多方面，亚马逊也受益于推动优步增长的同一基础动态。那就是越来越多的消费者对不拥有或甚至不驾驶车辆感到满意。这些人同样乐于在线购物，并让亚马逊想办法将产品送到他们的家门口。（与此同时，亚马逊的云计算业务正在经历不同的增长趋势。）</p>
</div><p>Of the two tickers in question, though, Uber is arguably the more promising prospect simply because so many investors still underestimate just how strong its cultural tailwind is and how long it could persist. For perspective, market research outfit Future Market Insight believes the global ride-hailing market is set to grow at an average annualized pace of 15.4% through 2034.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，在这两个股票中，优步无疑是更具前景的投资，因为许多投资者仍然低估了其文化顺风的强度以及这种趋势可能持续的时间。为了提供一个视角，市场研究机构 Future Market Insight 认为，全球打车市场预计将在 2034 年前以 15.4% 的年均增速增长。</p>
</div><p>Market leader Uber is poised to capture at least its fair share of this growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场领导者优步有望获得至少其应有的市场份额。</p>
</div>

Should You Forget Amazon? Why You Might Want to Buy This Unstoppable Growth Stock Instead

- 亚马逊自 1997 年上市以来股价上涨约 300,000%。
- 尽管未来 30 年回报可能不如过去，Uber 的增长潜力仍被看好。
- 预计全球打车市场将以每年 15.4% 的速度增长，Uber 将受益。

你应该忘记亚马逊吗？为什么你可能会想购买这只势不可挡的成长股