<p>在过去，<strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（BABA -1.22%）常被视为中国的 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -2.42%）。但在过去十年中，这两家公司的股票走上了完全不同的道路。尽管亚马逊的股票在过去 10 年中上涨了超过 1400%，截至目前，阿里巴巴的股票实际上下跌了超过 15%。</p>
<p>尽管其股票表现不佳，阿里巴巴在过去 10 年的运营表现实际上相当稳健。该公司的收入从 2015 年的 123 亿美元增长到 2024 年的 1303 亿美元，增长了超过 10 倍。同时，其营业收入从 2015 年的 39 亿美元增长到 2024 年的 141 亿美元。</p>
<p>虽然过去几年增长放缓，但该公司正在努力重新点燃增长。让我们看看这只股票是否具备成为你一生投资的潜力。</p>
<h2>中国的亚马逊</h2>
<p>与亚马逊类似，阿里巴巴也涉及电子商务、物流和云计算等多个业务。</p>
<p>在电子商务领域，它拥有受欢迎的天猫和淘宝平台。天猫是中国一个企业对消费者的市场，品牌通过该平台销售商品。与此同时，淘宝则允许企业和消费者在其平台上进行销售。</p>
<p>由于中国经济疲软和激烈的竞争，尤其是来自竞争对手 <strong>拼多多</strong>（PDD Holdings）的竞争，阿里巴巴的电子商务部门的增长最近放缓。阿里巴巴的天猫和淘宝部门的收入在上个季度仅增长了 1%。</p>
<p>然而，在对其平台进行投资以提高价格竞争力、技术和客户服务后，阿里巴巴实施了一项新的软件服务费，基于其平台上完成交易的商品总值，取代了天猫平台的年度服务费。它还开始看到其新的人工智能（AI）驱动的全平台营销工具 “全展推” 的良好接受度。这些举措应该会开始重新点燃收入增长。</p>
<p>在电子商务领域，阿里巴巴还拥有两个快速增长的跨境平台：AliExpress 和 Trendyol。上个季度，该部门的收入跃升 29%，达到 45 亿美元。目前，该公司正在努力在欧洲和中东的海湾地区建设这些平台。因此，该部门尚未盈利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI5MzUvZ3JlYXRfd2FsbF9vZl9jaGluYS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI5MzUvZ3JlYXRfd2FsbF9vZl9jaGluYS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>与亚马逊类似，阿里巴巴也有云计算业务，但与其美国同行不同，这并不是其最盈利的业务。该部门上个季度的收入增长了 7%，而该部门的 EBITA（息税折旧摊销前利润）飙升 89%，达到 3.79 亿美元。该公司一直在让低利润的项目合同到期，这影响了收入增长，但提高了盈利能力。</p>
<p>与此同时，阿里巴巴在与 AI 相关的产品和服务方面已经连续五个季度实现了三位数的收入增长。尽管它无法获得美国公司所拥有的最新 AI 芯片技术，但阿里巴巴仍在大力投资与 AI 相关的云基础设施。在 9 月份，它推出了 100 多个新的开源 AI 模型以及一个文本到视频生成工具。然而，由于中国市场竞争激烈，它最近降低了大型语言模型的价格以推动采用。</p>
<h2>一只便宜且有良好上涨潜力的股票</h2>
<p>从估值的角度来看，阿里巴巴的股票非常便宜，基于明年的分析师预估，其前瞻市盈率（P/E）低于 9 倍。同时，它的资产负债表上有 436 亿美元的净现金，以及 491 亿美元的股权投资，包括蚂蚁集团、<strong>小鹏</strong>（Xpeng）和 <strong>微博</strong>（Weibo）等公司。仅排除净现金，其前瞻市盈率低于 7 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c64b30e8cb2ed1288dd8694eeef20a8e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c64b30e8cb2ed1288dd8694eeef20a8e.png"/></p>
<p>BABA 市盈率（前瞻 1 年）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，阿里巴巴的估值吸引了一些大投资者，包括亿万富翁投资者大卫·泰珀（David Tepper）及其管理的 Appaloosa Management。该股票在第三季度末是泰珀的最大持仓，占其投资组合的 15% 以上。泰珀似乎是中国股票的忠实粉丝，拼多多和 <strong>京东</strong>（JD.com）也在他的前 10 大持仓中。</p>
<p>中国政府一直在努力刺激经济，并且在 2025 年继续这一努力的呼声越来越高，特别是在美国关税威胁的背景下。更好的国内经济将大大有助于阿里巴巴及其股票。同时，该公司在改善其电子商务和云计算业务方面也采取了措施。它还产生了大量现金，并一直在利用这些现金回购股票。</p>
<p>如果阿里巴巴的估值与亚马逊相似，它的上涨潜力将接近 4 倍，而如果它的规模达到亚马逊的水平，则上涨潜力将超过 10 倍。虽然我认为这两种情况都不太可能，但我确实认为阿里巴巴可以反弹，其估值倍数可以显著提高，从而为投资者提供良好的上涨潜力。但投资这只股票不太可能让你一生无忧。</p>

阿里巴巴-WR

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-W

<p>阿里巴巴的股票在过去十年中下跌超过 15%，与亚马逊 1400% 的增长形成鲜明对比。尽管如此，阿里巴巴的收入从 2015 年的 123 亿美元增长到 2024 年的 1303 亿美元，营业收入从 39 亿美元增加到 141 亿美元。该公司正在实施新策略，以重新点燃其电子商务和云计算部门的增长，包括采用人工智能驱动的工具。凭借较低的前瞻市盈率和可观的现金储备，阿里巴巴展现出潜在的丰厚投资机会，尤其是在中国经济改善的情况下</p>

<p>In the past, <strong>Alibaba</strong>(BABA -1.22%) was often viewed as the <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.42%) of China. But the stocks of the two companies have been on completely different paths over the past decade. While Amazon's stock is up more than 1,400% in the past 10 years, as of this writing, Alibaba's stock is actually down more than 15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去，<strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（BABA -1.22%）常被视为中国的 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -2.42%）。但在过去十年中，这两家公司的股票走上了完全不同的道路。尽管亚马逊的股票在过去 10 年中上涨了超过 1400%，截至目前，阿里巴巴的股票实际上下跌了超过 15%。</p>
</div><p>While its stock has struggled, Alibaba's operational performance has actually been quite solid over the past 10 years. The company grew its revenue more than 10 times from $12.3 billion in 2015 to $130.3 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, its operating income rose from $3.9 billion in 2015 to $14.1 billion in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管其股票表现不佳，阿里巴巴在过去 10 年的运营表现实际上相当稳健。该公司的收入从 2015 年的 123 亿美元增长到 2024 年的 1303 亿美元，增长了超过 10 倍。同时，其营业收入从 2015 年的 39 亿美元增长到 2024 年的 141 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>While growth slowed the past few years, the company is working to reignite growth. Let's see if the stock has what it takes to be an investment that sets you up for life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然过去几年增长放缓，但该公司正在努力重新点燃增长。让我们看看这只股票是否具备成为你一生投资的潜力。</p>
</div><h2>The Amazon of China</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中国的亚马逊</h2>
</div><p>Like Amazon, Alibaba is involved in e-commerce, logistics, and cloud computing, among other businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与亚马逊类似，阿里巴巴也涉及电子商务、物流和云计算等多个业务。</p>
</div><p>Within e-commerce, it owns the popular Tmall and Taobao platforms. Tmall is a business-to-consumer marketplace in China that established brands use to sell their goods. Taobao, meanwhile, allows both businesses and consumers to sell on its platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在电子商务领域，它拥有受欢迎的天猫和淘宝平台。天猫是中国一个企业对消费者的市场，品牌通过该平台销售商品。与此同时，淘宝则允许企业和消费者在其平台上进行销售。</p>
</div><p>Growth within Alibaba's e-commerce segment has recently been slow due to a sluggish Chinese economy and intense competition -- particularly from rival <strong>PDD Holdings</strong>, which owns the popular Pinduoduo platform in China. Revenue for Alibaba's Tmall and Taobao segment only increased 1% last quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于中国经济疲软和激烈的竞争，尤其是来自竞争对手 <strong>拼多多</strong>（PDD Holdings）的竞争，阿里巴巴的电子商务部门的增长最近放缓。阿里巴巴的天猫和淘宝部门的收入在上个季度仅增长了 1%。</p>
</div><p>However, following a period of investment into its platforms to improve price competitiveness, technology, and customer service, Alibaba implemented a new software service fee based on the gross merchandise value of completed transactions on its platforms, replacing an annual service fee on its Tmall platform. It also has started to see good uptake with its new artificial intellingence (AI)-powered platform-wide marketing tool Quanzhantui. Together, these initiatives should start to reignite revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在对其平台进行投资以提高价格竞争力、技术和客户服务后，阿里巴巴实施了一项新的软件服务费，基于其平台上完成交易的商品总值，取代了天猫平台的年度服务费。它还开始看到其新的人工智能（AI）驱动的全平台营销工具 “全展推” 的良好接受度。这些举措应该会开始重新点燃收入增长。</p>
</div><p>Within e-commerce, Alibaba also owns two fast-growing cross-border platforms: AliExpress and Trendyol. Last quarter, this segment saw revenue jump 29% to $4.5 billion. Currently, the company is working to build the platforms in Europe and the Gulf region in the Middle East. As such, this segment is not yet profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在电子商务领域，阿里巴巴还拥有两个快速增长的跨境平台：AliExpress 和 Trendyol。上个季度，该部门的收入跃升 29%，达到 45 亿美元。目前，该公司正在努力在欧洲和中东的海湾地区建设这些平台。因此，该部门尚未盈利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI5MzUvZ3JlYXRfd2FsbF9vZl9jaGluYS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F802935%2Fgreat_wall_of_china.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Also similar to Amazon, Alibaba has a cloud computing business, but unlike its U.S. counterpart, this is not its most profitable business. This segment grew revenue by 7% last quarter, while segment EBITA (earnings before interest, taxes and amortization) soared 89% to $379 million. The company has been letting low-margin project-based contracts roll off, which has impacted revenue growth but improved profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与亚马逊类似，阿里巴巴也有云计算业务，但与其美国同行不同，这并不是其最盈利的业务。该部门上个季度的收入增长了 7%，而该部门的 EBITA（息税折旧摊销前利润）飙升 89%，达到 3.79 亿美元。该公司一直在让低利润的项目合同到期，这影响了收入增长，但提高了盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Alibaba has seen five straight quarters of triple-digit revenue growth from AI-related products and services. While it doesn't have access to the latest AI-chip technology that U.S. companies do, Alibaba is nonetheless investing heavily in AI-related cloud infrastructure. In September, it launched more than 100 new open-source AI models as well as a text-to-video generation tool. However, it recently slashed prices on its large language models to drive adoption as competition in the space remains heightened in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，阿里巴巴在与 AI 相关的产品和服务方面已经连续五个季度实现了三位数的收入增长。尽管它无法获得美国公司所拥有的最新 AI 芯片技术，但阿里巴巴仍在大力投资与 AI 相关的云基础设施。在 9 月份，它推出了 100 多个新的开源 AI 模型以及一个文本到视频生成工具。然而，由于中国市场竞争激烈，它最近降低了大型语言模型的价格以推动采用。</p>
</div><h2>A cheap stock with a good upside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一只便宜且有良好上涨潜力的股票</h2>
</div><p>From a valuation perspective Alibaba is incredibly cheap, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of less than 9 times based on next year's analyst estimates. Meanwhile, it has $43.6 billion in net cash on its balance sheet plus another $49.1 billion in equity security investments in the companies it owns, including Ant Group, <strong>Xpeng</strong>, and <strong>Weibo</strong>, among others. Excluding just its net cash, it trades under 7 times forward P/E.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从估值的角度来看，阿里巴巴的股票非常便宜，基于明年的分析师预估，其前瞻市盈率（P/E）低于 9 倍。同时，它的资产负债表上有 436 亿美元的净现金，以及 491 亿美元的股权投资，包括蚂蚁集团、<strong>小鹏</strong>（Xpeng）和 <strong>微博</strong>（Weibo）等公司。仅排除净现金，其前瞻市盈率低于 7 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c64b30e8cb2ed1288dd8694eeef20a8e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c64b30e8cb2ed1288dd8694eeef20a8e.png"/></p>
<p>BABA PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BABA 市盈率（前瞻 1 年）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Not surprisingly, Alibaba's valuation has attracted some big investors, including billionaire investor David Tepper of Appaloosa Management. The stock was Tepper's top holding at the end of Q3, representing more than 15% of his portfolio. Tepper appears to be a big fan of Chinese stocks, with PDD and <strong>JD.com</strong> also among his top 10 holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，阿里巴巴的估值吸引了一些大投资者，包括亿万富翁投资者大卫·泰珀（David Tepper）及其管理的 Appaloosa Management。该股票在第三季度末是泰珀的最大持仓，占其投资组合的 15% 以上。泰珀似乎是中国股票的忠实粉丝，拼多多和 <strong>京东</strong>（JD.com）也在他的前 10 大持仓中。</p>
</div><p>The Chinese government has been trying to stimulate its economy, and there are further calls for this to continue in 2025, especially with threats of increased U.S. tariffs. A better domestic economy would go a long way toward helping Alibaba and its stock. Meanwhile, the company has taken strides to improve its e-commerce and cloud computing businesses. It also generates a lot of cash, which it has been using to buy back shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国政府一直在努力刺激经济，并且在 2025 年继续这一努力的呼声越来越高，特别是在美国关税威胁的背景下。更好的国内经济将大大有助于阿里巴巴及其股票。同时，该公司在改善其电子商务和云计算业务方面也采取了措施。它还产生了大量现金，并一直在利用这些现金回购股票。</p>
</div><p>If Alibaba were to trade at a similar valuation to Amazon, it would have close to 4 times upside, while if it grew to the size of Amazon it would have have more than 10 times upside. While I don't think either of those scenarios are likely, I do think Alibaba can rebound and that its valuation multiple can nicely increase, giving investors solid upside potential. But an investment in the stock isn't likely to set you up for life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果阿里巴巴的估值与亚马逊相似，它的上涨潜力将接近 4 倍，而如果它的规模达到亚马逊的水平，则上涨潜力将超过 10 倍。虽然我认为这两种情况都不太可能，但我确实认为阿里巴巴可以反弹，其估值倍数可以显著提高，从而为投资者提供良好的上涨潜力。但投资这只股票不太可能让你一生无忧。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Alibaba Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

- 阿里巴巴的股价在过去十年下跌超过 15%，而亚马逊上涨超过 1,400%。  
- 阿里巴巴的收入从 2015 年的 123 亿美元增长到 2024 年的 1303 亿美元。  
- 该公司正在通过新服务费和 AI 工具推动电商和云计算业务的增长。  

今天购买阿里巴巴股票能让你一生受益吗？