<p>尽管 2024 年股价上涨 171% 还不够，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.67%) 的股价在 1 月 6 日市场收盘时已经上涨了约 9%。这几乎比 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 年初至今的回报高出八个百分点。这种惊人的势头可能让许多投资者想知道这只股票能在多长时间内继续如此快速上涨。虽然没有确切的方法来知道这家图形处理单元（GPU）专家的股票在未来几个月会涨到多高，但这并没有阻止投资者花时间考虑这只股票在当前水平上是否具有吸引力。毕竟，对于考虑长期持有该股票的投资者来说，股票价格的短期波动在很大程度上是无关紧要的。</p>
<p>那么，英伟达的股票在当前水平上值得购买吗？还是说该股票的当前估值已经反映了预期的业务增长？</p>
<h2>销售和利润飙升</h2>
<p>有一点是明确的：英伟达的业务正在全面开花。其最近报告的季度收入同比飙升 94%，环比增长 17%，达到 351 亿美元。这主要得益于数据中心收入同比增长 112%，占该季度总收入的 88%。当然，数据中心收入受益于对计算能力的需求似乎势不可挡，以支持人工智能（AI）技术。</p>
<p>&#34;人工智能的时代正在全速推进，推动全球向 NVIDIA 计算的转变，&#34;英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋在公司第三财季的财报电话会议上表示。该技术的顺风因素令人难以置信，包括企业大量采用人工智能以增强工作流程，甚至一些国家意识到对人工智能的投资是国内技术基础设施的关键任务。</p>
<p>这种势头导致了令人印象深刻的盈利能力。英伟达最近一个季度的净收入为 193 亿美元，是去年同期 92 亿美元的两倍多。</p>
<p>最后，这种强劲的增长为英伟达创造了一个坚如磐石的资产负债表。尽管公司加大了股票回购的支出，但仍拥有约 385 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券。在截至 2024 年 10 月 27 日的过去九个月中，英伟达在股票回购上花费了 260 亿美元。</p>
<h2>英伟达投资者应谨慎行事</h2>
<p>但事情在这里变得有些复杂。英伟达的股价上涨使得公司的市值在撰写时接近 3.7 万亿美元。尽管其利润和现金余额本身令人印象深刻，但与这一数字相比却显得微不足道。此外，考虑到这一估值与英伟达过去 12 个月的收益相比，该公司以 59 倍的市盈率交易——这一倍数反映了未来不仅在接下来的 12 个月内，而且在未来几年内持续快速增长的预期。</p>
<p>当然，英伟达在 2025 年几乎肯定会继续以令人印象深刻的速度增长。公司的顺风因素相当可观，短期内不太可能减弱。然而，投资者应记住半导体行业是周期性的。更重要的是，竞争非常激烈。举个例子，芯片制造商 <strong>英特尔</strong>(INTC -0.54%) 曾享有如此巨大的主导地位，以至于很难想象该公司会失去光彩。然而，过去五年中，英特尔的股价下跌了 67%，因为英伟达和其他芯片制造商在几乎所有方面都超越了英特尔。此外，技术变革的速度对该公司来说实在太快，难以跟上。</p>
<p>未来英伟达也有可能面临同样的风险。尽管考虑到英伟达的主导地位，它不太可能很快经历类似英特尔的灾难性执行失误。对投资者来说，真正的风险可能更为微妙。例如，如果英伟达的增长放缓且利润率缩小，投资者可能会开始质疑英伟达的高估值，股票可能会急剧下跌。此外，任何暗示企业人工智能支出接近峰值的迹象都可能导致股价受到冲击。</p>
<p>综上所述，考虑到英伟达的股票，可能值得保持观望。它是一家优秀的企业，但高估值可能已经反映了公司未来的许多增长。</p>

英伟达

<p>截至 2025 年 1 月 6 日，英伟达的股票上涨了 9%，在 2024 年实现了惊人的 171% 的增长。该公司的收入同比增长了 94%，数据中心收入增长了 112%，主要得益于人工智能的需求。尽管利润强劲且资产负债表稳健，英伟达的市值接近 3.7 万亿美元，市盈率为 59 倍，这引发了对其高估值的担忧。投资者被提醒注意潜在风险，包括增长放缓和利润率缩窄，建议在当前水平上谨慎购买英伟达股票</p>

<p>As if its 171% gain in 2024 wasn't enough, shares of <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.67%) were already up about 9% by market close on Jan. 6. This was almost eight percentage points more than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s year-to-date returns. Such staggering momentum probably has many investors wondering how long the stock can keep rising so rapidly. While there's no certain way to know how high the graphics processing unit (GPU) specialist's stock will go in the coming months, this doesn't stop investors from taking a moment to consider whether the stock looks attractive at its current level. After all, for investors who are considering buying and holding the stock for the long term, the short-term moves in the stock price are largely irrelevant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 2024 年股价上涨 171% 还不够，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.67%) 的股价在 1 月 6 日市场收盘时已经上涨了约 9%。这几乎比 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 年初至今的回报高出八个百分点。这种惊人的势头可能让许多投资者想知道这只股票能在多长时间内继续如此快速上涨。虽然没有确切的方法来知道这家图形处理单元（GPU）专家的股票在未来几个月会涨到多高，但这并没有阻止投资者花时间考虑这只股票在当前水平上是否具有吸引力。毕竟，对于考虑长期持有该股票的投资者来说，股票价格的短期波动在很大程度上是无关紧要的。</p>
</div><p>So, is Nvidia stock a buy at its current level? Or is the stock's current valuation already pricing in expected business growth?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，英伟达的股票在当前水平上值得购买吗？还是说该股票的当前估值已经反映了预期的业务增长？</p>
</div><h2>Soaring sales and profits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>销售和利润飙升</h2>
</div><p>One thing is clear: Nvidia's business is firing on all cylinders. Revenue in its most recently reported quarter soared 94% year over year and 17% sequentially to $35.1 billion. This was driven primarily by 112% year-over-year growth in data center revenue, 88% of the quarter's total revenue. Data center revenue, of course, has been benefiting from the seemingly unstoppable demand for computing power to support artificial intelligence (AI) technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有一点是明确的：英伟达的业务正在全面开花。其最近报告的季度收入同比飙升 94%，环比增长 17%，达到 351 亿美元。这主要得益于数据中心收入同比增长 112%，占该季度总收入的 88%。当然，数据中心收入受益于对计算能力的需求似乎势不可挡，以支持人工智能（AI）技术。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing,&#34; said Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang in the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings call. The tailwinds for the technology are incredible, including enterprises adopting AI in droves to enhance workflows and even countries waking up to the fact that investment in AI is a mission-critical element to domestic technological infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;人工智能的时代正在全速推进，推动全球向 NVIDIA 计算的转变，&#34;英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋在公司第三财季的财报电话会议上表示。该技术的顺风因素令人难以置信，包括企业大量采用人工智能以增强工作流程，甚至一些国家意识到对人工智能的投资是国内技术基础设施的关键任务。</p>
</div><p>This momentum is leading to impressive profitability. Nvidia's net income in the most recent quarter was $19.3 billion, more than double the $9.2 billion it reported in the year-ago quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种势头导致了令人印象深刻的盈利能力。英伟达最近一个季度的净收入为 193 亿美元，是去年同期 92 亿美元的两倍多。</p>
</div><p>Finally, this strong growth is creating a fortress of a balance sheet for Nvidia. The company boasts about $38.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, even as it ramps up spending on share repurchases. In the trailing nine-month period ended Oct. 27, 2024, it spent $26 billion on share repurchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，这种强劲的增长为英伟达创造了一个坚如磐石的资产负债表。尽管公司加大了股票回购的支出，但仍拥有约 385 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券。在截至 2024 年 10 月 27 日的过去九个月中，英伟达在股票回购上花费了 260 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia investors should tread carefully</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达投资者应谨慎行事</h2>
</div><p>But here's where things get a little tricky. The rise in Nvidia's stock has put the company's market capitalization at nearly $3.7 trillion as of this writing. Its profits and cash balance, as impressive as they are in their own right, pale in comparison to this figure. Further, consider how this valuation measures up to Nvidia's trailing-12-month earnings. The company trades at 59 times earnings -- a multiple that prices in continued rapid growth in earnings not just over the next 12 months but for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但事情在这里变得有些复杂。英伟达的股价上涨使得公司的市值在撰写时接近 3.7 万亿美元。尽管其利润和现金余额本身令人印象深刻，但与这一数字相比却显得微不足道。此外，考虑到这一估值与英伟达过去 12 个月的收益相比，该公司以 59 倍的市盈率交易——这一倍数反映了未来不仅在接下来的 12 个月内，而且在未来几年内持续快速增长的预期。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Nvidia will almost certainly continue growing at an impressive pace in 2025. The company's tailwinds are substantial and are unlikely to let up anytime soon. However, investors should keep in mind that the semiconductor industry is cyclical. Even more, it's intensely competitive. Case in point, chipmaker <strong>Intel</strong>(INTC -0.54%) once enjoyed dominance so great that it was difficult for anyone to imagine the company falling from grace. Yet shares are down 67% over the last five years as Nvidia and other chipmakers outmaneuvered Intel on almost every front. Further, technological change was just too rapid for the company to keep up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，英伟达在 2025 年几乎肯定会继续以令人印象深刻的速度增长。公司的顺风因素相当可观，短期内不太可能减弱。然而，投资者应记住半导体行业是周期性的。更重要的是，竞争非常激烈。举个例子，芯片制造商 <strong>英特尔</strong>(INTC -0.54%) 曾享有如此巨大的主导地位，以至于很难想象该公司会失去光彩。然而，过去五年中，英特尔的股价下跌了 67%，因为英伟达和其他芯片制造商在几乎所有方面都超越了英特尔。此外，技术变革的速度对该公司来说实在太快，难以跟上。</p>
</div><p>There's always a risk that the same thing could happen to Nvidia in the future. Though given Nvidia's dominance, it's unlikely it will have an Intel-like disastrous streak of poor execution anytime soon. The real risk to investors is likely one that is more subtle. For instance, if Nvidia's growth slows and profit margins narrow, investors could start questioning Nvidia's premium valuation and the stock could sell off sharply. Further, even the slightest hint that enterprise AI spending is close to peaking could cause the stock to take a hit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来英伟达也有可能面临同样的风险。尽管考虑到英伟达的主导地位，它不太可能很快经历类似英特尔的灾难性执行失误。对投资者来说，真正的风险可能更为微妙。例如，如果英伟达的增长放缓且利润率缩小，投资者可能会开始质疑英伟达的高估值，股票可能会急剧下跌。此外，任何暗示企业人工智能支出接近峰值的迹象都可能导致股价受到冲击。</p>
</div><p>With all of this said, it may be worth staying on the sidelines when it comes to Nvidia stock. It's a great business, but a high valuation may have priced in much of the company's future growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综上所述，考虑到英伟达的股票，可能值得保持观望。它是一家优秀的企业，但高估值可能已经反映了公司未来的许多增长。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Soars to Start 2025. Is It Too Late to Buy the Growth Stock?

- Nvidia 股价在 2024 年上涨 171%，截至 1 月 6 日再涨 9%。  
- 最近一个季度，Nvidia 收入同比增长 94%，净利润达 193 亿美元。  
- 目前市值接近 3.7 万亿美元，估值可能已反映未来增长。  

英伟达股票在 2025 年初飙升。现在购买这只成长股是否已经太晚了？