<p>芯片制造商 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.02%) 的股价在过去五年中飙升了超过 2400%。由于人工智能（AI）的进步以及公司芯片在下一代技术中的重要性，这只股票已被证明是一台增长机器。</p>
<p>但随着公司现在成为全球最有价值的公司之一，并积累了如此惊人的收益，投资 Nvidia 是否已经太晚？这仍然可以成为一项卓越的长期投资吗？一项可能将 25,000 美元的投资在长期内变成超过 100 万美元的投资？</p>
<h2>投资者为何可以对 Nvidia 保持乐观</h2>
<p>投资于已经取得如此惊人回报的股票，如 Nvidia，可能会让许多投资者感到沮丧。毕竟，如果它如此迅速地上涨，你可能会想知道它还有多少上涨空间。</p>
<p>但如果你对 AI 持乐观态度，那么有理由对 Nvidia 继续上涨感到乐观。这是因为它在 AI 芯片市场中占据主导地位；其市场份额超过 70%，许多开发 AI 模型的公司需要转向 Nvidia。</p>
<p>即使其他科技公司正在开发定制芯片，对 Nvidia 的需求仍然强劲。没有比查看数字更好的证明了；Nvidia 的增长率仍然令人印象深刻。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/34881203a974b8a8135c7b492d4dcffc.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/34881203a974b8a8135c7b492d4dcffc.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>虽然其增长率略有下降，但任何公司要继续三倍增长销售额都将是困难的。但在五年期间平均年增长率约为 80% 是令人震惊的。</p>
<p>令人鼓舞的是，AI 需求在未来几年可能仍然强劲。Grand View Research 的分析师预测，到 2030 年，AI 芯片市场的价值可能达到 3230 亿美元，预计到那时将以 28.9% 的复合年增长率扩张。Nvidia 是这些增长机会的主要受益者，因此，未来业务可能还有更多的增值空间。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 的股票能成为 40 倍投资吗？</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，Nvidia 在未来可以变得更有价值。但大问题是它是否能产生 40 倍的回报，因为这将是将 25,000 美元的投资转变为至少 100 万美元所需的。为了更好地理解这一点，考虑一下你是否认为 Nvidia 有一天可能值约 150 万亿美元——是其当前市值的 40 倍。</p>
<p>这可能不会在短期内发生，但当你谈论 20 年以上的时间时，这包括了很多未来的增长。Nvidia 的股票需要产生约 20.3% 的平均回报，才能达到这样的估值。如果你考虑的是 25 年的时间，那么增长率需要稍微低一些，约为 15.9%。</p>
<p>这样的增长率可能更容易管理，但这仍然涉及到 Nvidia 完全主导并超越市场——<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.16%）的长期平均年回报约为 10%。你是否认为这是一个现实的情景，主要取决于你对 AI 的预期。如果公司将疯狂投入新技术，而 Nvidia 仍然是顶级 AI 供应商，这绝对是可能的。</p>
<p>就我个人而言，我对 AI 的炒作持有一些怀疑态度，并预计许多公司可能不会看到开发自己的 AI 聊天机器人和模型的价值。这种可能性使我对 Nvidia 在长期内获得高额回报的预期更加谨慎。我也不相信这家公司会在几十年内持续产生出色的业绩，并且能够为投资者带来 40 倍的回报。</p>
<h2>无论如何，Nvidia 仍然可能值得投资</h2>
<p>即使 Nvidia 可能没有能力在长期内成为一项百万富翁的投资，这并不意味着它今天不能成为你投资组合中一个不错的投资。它正在快速增长，估值也并不离谱；其交易价格不到其过去收益的 60 倍，这对于一家产生 Nvidia 类型增长的公司来说可能并不算过分。</p>
<p>这是一个值得投资的顶级企业，但投资者应该调整他们的预期。虽然 Nvidia 在近年来取得了一些惊人的收益，但这并不意味着这一趋势会在长期内简单地持续下去。Nvidia 可以成为一个不错的成长股，适合买入并持有，但我认为它不会为今天购买的投资者带来改变人生的回报。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票在五年内飙升超过 2400%，这得益于其在人工智能芯片市场的主导地位。尽管一些投资者在考虑是否已经错过了投资时机，但分析师预测人工智能需求将强劲增长，这可能使英伟达继续保持上升趋势。然而，要实现将 25,000 美元的投资回报提升至 1,000,000 美元的 40 倍，英伟达需要在市场上占据显著的主导地位。尽管英伟达仍然是一个稳健的投资选择，但预期应保持谨慎，因为在长期内实现改变生活的回报可能并不现实</p>

<p>Shares of chipmaker <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.02%) have soared more than 2,400% in just the past five years. The stock has proven to be a growth machine due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and the importance the company's chips play in next-gen technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芯片制造商 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.02%) 的股价在过去五年中飙升了超过 2400%。由于人工智能（AI）的进步以及公司芯片在下一代技术中的重要性，这只股票已被证明是一台增长机器。</p>
</div><p>But with the company now among the most valuable in the world and amassing such incredible gains, is it too late to invest in Nvidia? Can this still be an exceptional long-term investment, one that could potentially turn a $25,000 investment into more than $1 million over the long haul?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着公司现在成为全球最有价值的公司之一，并积累了如此惊人的收益，投资 Nvidia 是否已经太晚？这仍然可以成为一项卓越的长期投资吗？一项可能将 25,000 美元的投资在长期内变成超过 100 万美元的投资？</p>
</div><h2>Why investors can remain bullish on Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者为何可以对 Nvidia 保持乐观</h2>
</div><p>Investing in a stock that has already achieved such out-of-this-world returns as Nvidia will discourage many investors. After all, if it has climbed by so much so quickly, you may be wondering just how much more upside it can have.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资于已经取得如此惊人回报的股票，如 Nvidia，可能会让许多投资者感到沮丧。毕竟，如果它如此迅速地上涨，你可能会想知道它还有多少上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>But if you're bullish on AI, there's reason to be optimistic that Nvidia can continue to rally. And that's because it dominates the AI chip market; its share of the market is north of 70%, and many companies developing AI models need to turn to Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你对 AI 持乐观态度，那么有理由对 Nvidia 继续上涨感到乐观。这是因为它在 AI 芯片市场中占据主导地位；其市场份额超过 70%，许多开发 AI 模型的公司需要转向 Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>Even as other tech companies are building out custom chips, demand remains robust for Nvidia. There's no better proof of that than by looking at the numbers; Nvidia's growth rate remains impressive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使其他科技公司正在开发定制芯片，对 Nvidia 的需求仍然强劲。没有比查看数字更好的证明了；Nvidia 的增长率仍然令人印象深刻。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/34881203a974b8a8135c7b492d4dcffc.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/34881203a974b8a8135c7b492d4dcffc.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>While its growth rate has come down a bit, it would be hard for any company to continue tripling its sales. But averaging an annual growth rate of about 80% during a five-year period is astounding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然其增长率略有下降，但任何公司要继续三倍增长销售额都将是困难的。但在五年期间平均年增长率约为 80% 是令人震惊的。</p>
</div><p>And what's promising is that AI demand may remain strong for years. Analysts at Grand View Research project that the AI chipset market could be worth $323 billion by 2030, estimating that it will expand at a compounded annual growth rate of 28.9% until then. Nvidia is a key benefactor of those growth opportunities, and as a result, there could still be much more room for the business to become even more valuable in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>令人鼓舞的是，AI 需求在未来几年可能仍然强劲。Grand View Research 的分析师预测，到 2030 年，AI 芯片市场的价值可能达到 3230 亿美元，预计到那时将以 28.9% 的复合年增长率扩张。Nvidia 是这些增长机会的主要受益者，因此，未来业务可能还有更多的增值空间。</p>
</div><h2>Can Nvidia's stock be a 40-bagger investment?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 的股票能成为 40 倍投资吗？</h2>
</div><p>There's no doubt Nvidia can become much more valuable in the future. But the big question is whether it can produce 40-fold returns, because that would be needed for the stock to turn a $25,000 investment into at least $1 million. To put that into perspective, consider whether you think Nvidia may one day be worth about $150 trillion -- 40 times its current market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，Nvidia 在未来可以变得更有价值。但大问题是它是否能产生 40 倍的回报，因为这将是将 25,000 美元的投资转变为至少 100 万美元所需的。为了更好地理解这一点，考虑一下你是否认为 Nvidia 有一天可能值约 150 万亿美元——是其当前市值的 40 倍。</p>
</div><p>That likely won't happen anytime soon, but when you're talking about a period of 20-plus years, that includes a lot of future growth. Nvidia's stock would need to generate an average return of about 20.3% for it to grow to such a valuation. If you're looking at a period of 25 years, then the growth rate would need to be a bit lighter at 15.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能不会在短期内发生，但当你谈论 20 年以上的时间时，这包括了很多未来的增长。Nvidia 的股票需要产生约 20.3% 的平均回报，才能达到这样的估值。如果你考虑的是 25 年的时间，那么增长率需要稍微低一些，约为 15.9%。</p>
</div><p>Such a growth rate may be more manageable, but it still involves Nvidia completely dominating and outperforming the market -- the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s (^GSPC 0.16%) long-run average is an annual return of about 10%. Whether you think that is a realistic scenario depends heavily on your expectations for AI. If companies are going to spend feverishly on new technologies and Nvidia remains a top AI vendor, it's definitely possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样的增长率可能更容易管理，但这仍然涉及到 Nvidia 完全主导并超越市场——<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.16%）的长期平均年回报约为 10%。你是否认为这是一个现实的情景，主要取决于你对 AI 的预期。如果公司将疯狂投入新技术，而 Nvidia 仍然是顶级 AI 供应商，这绝对是可能的。</p>
</div><p>Personally, I'm a bit more skeptical about the hype in AI and expect that many companies may not see the value in developing their own AI chatbots and models. The potential for this to be another tech bubble is why I'd be more cautious in expecting sky-high returns for Nvidia over the long run. I'm also not convinced the business is just going to continually generate fantastic numbers for decades, and that it can produce 40-fold returns for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就我个人而言，我对 AI 的炒作持有一些怀疑态度，并预计许多公司可能不会看到开发自己的 AI 聊天机器人和模型的价值。这种可能性使我对 Nvidia 在长期内获得高额回报的预期更加谨慎。我也不相信这家公司会在几十年内持续产生出色的业绩，并且能够为投资者带来 40 倍的回报。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia may still be worth investing in anyway</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>无论如何，Nvidia 仍然可能值得投资</h2>
</div><p>Even if Nvidia may not have what it takes to be a millionaire-making investment in the long run, that doesn't mean it can't still be a good investment to add to your portfolio today. It's growing at a fast rate, and its valuation isn't egregious; it's trading at less than 60 times its trailing earnings, which may not be all that outlandish for a company generating the type of growth Nvidia is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 Nvidia 可能没有能力在长期内成为一项百万富翁的投资，这并不意味着它今天不能成为你投资组合中一个不错的投资。它正在快速增长，估值也并不离谱；其交易价格不到其过去收益的 60 倍，这对于一家产生 Nvidia 类型增长的公司来说可能并不算过分。</p>
</div><p>It's a top business to invest in, but investors should temper their expectations. While Nvidia has produced some terrific gains in recent years, that doesn't mean the trend is simply going to continue for the long term. Nvidia can be a good growth stock to buy and hold, but I don't think it's going to generate life-changing returns for investors who buy it today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个值得投资的顶级企业，但投资者应该调整他们的预期。虽然 Nvidia 在近年来取得了一些惊人的收益，但这并不意味着这一趋势会在长期内简单地持续下去。Nvidia 可以成为一个不错的成长股，适合买入并持有，但我认为它不会为今天购买的投资者带来改变人生的回报。</p>
</div>

Can a $25,000 Investment in Nvidia Stock Today Turn Into $1 Million by the Time You Retire?

- 英伟达股价在过去五年上涨超过 2400%。
- 公司在人工智能芯片市场占有率超过 70%，未来增长潜力巨大。
- 尽管前景乐观，但投资者应谨慎对待长期回报预期。

今天投资 25,000 美元在英伟达股票上，到你退休时能变成 100 万美元吗？