<p>人工智能芯片领导者 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.02%) 在过去五年中为投资者带来了显著的回报，经过拆股调整后收益约为 2470%，因为人工智能革命已全面启动。截至目前，Nvidia 是美国股市中最有价值的上市公司，市值超过 3.7 万亿美元。</p>
<p>别误解我的意思。我并不认为现在购买 Nvidia 是一项_糟糕_的投资。但我确实认为，在当前的人工智能投资热潮消退后，股票价格的指数级增长时代将成为过去，我们将看到这家科技巨头的收益增长会有所减缓。以大约 33 倍的过去 12 个月销售额来看，可以公平地说，目前的估值中已经包含了_大量_的增长预期。虽然没有人能准确预测公司的未来市值，但我不会感到惊讶，如果十年后 Nvidia 的估值达到约 5 万亿美元。</p>
<p>如果这一点是正确的，我相信在未来十年内有几只股票将超过 5 万亿美元的市值。这里有两只我认为在未来 10 年内有很大机会超越人工智能芯片领导者的股票。</p>
<h2>两家有巨大增长空间的优秀企业</h2>
<p>找到一家不仅有一个而且有两个主导业务的公司是很罕见的，但 <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.01%) 就属于这一类。不仅如此，Amazon 在两个完全不同的业务领域中都处于市场领先地位，而且这两个业务都有显著的增长空间。如果 Amazon 继续执行并利用行业的顺风，2.4 万亿美元的市值可能会更高。我曾在过去说过，我相信 Amazon 最终会成为首个市值达到 5 万亿美元的公司，尽管我是在 Nvidia 大幅上涨之前说的，但这仍然不会让我感到惊讶。</p>
<p>在 Amazon 的电子商务业务方面，该公司的市场份额超过了其下 10 个竞争对手的_总和_。但这并不意味着它不能继续增长。电子商务仅占美国零售销售的约 16%，而这个比例在过去几十年中稳步上升。此外，Amazon 的电子商务收入大部分仍来自北美，国际市场的机会仍然巨大。</p>
<p>谈到 Amazon Web Services (AWS) 云基础设施业务时，更加令人兴奋。Amazon 在市场份额上并不像在电子商务中那样占据主导地位（ <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.52%) 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -0.79%)(GOOG -0.67%) 是其他主要参与者），但市场本身正在快速增长。事实上，预计到 2032 年，全球云计算市场的规模将大约增长三倍。此外，AWS 是业务中_远远_更具盈利性的部分，未来几年可能推动两位数的盈利增长。</p>
<h2>巨大的盈利能力与上行潜力</h2>
<p>Alphabet 以其 Google 子公司而闻名，截至目前市值约为 2.4 万亿美元。以仅 23 倍的前瞻性市盈率来看，可以说它是目前 “七大奇迹” 股票中最便宜的一只。</p>
<p>确实，这家拥有 28% 净利润率的高盈利行业领导者，现在可能是个便宜货。其 Google 服务部门，包括搜索、Gmail、YouTube、Chrome 以及大多数其他面向消费者的产品，可能会受益于强劲经济中广告收入的改善，以及即将到来的特朗普政府可能带来的亲商业和放松管制政策。</p>
<p>另一个部门，Google Cloud，是 AWS 的直接竞争对手，并受益于相同的行业顺风。此外，Alphabet 拥有巨大的财务灵活性，可以利用增长机会，或通过回购或分红机会性地向股东返还资本（它是这份名单中唯一支付股息的股票）。该公司每年产生超过 1000 亿美元的净利润，并且在资产负债表上拥有超过 930 亿美元的现金和短期投资。</p>
<h2>三个稳健的投资选择</h2>
<p>让我们明确一点。无论你购买 Nvidia、Amazon、Alphabet，还是这三者的组合，我认为你都不会出错。这三家公司都是非凡且管理良好的企业，如果十年后这三者的价值没有显著增加，我会感到震惊。尽管如此，虽然人工智能的炒作推动了这三者的上涨，但它也导致了 Nvidia 的未来增长和盈利能力被大幅定价，因此我可以看到这两只股票在 Nvidia 的业务追赶其股价时表现优于 Nvidia。</p>

谷歌-C

亚马逊

谷歌-A

<p>这篇文章预测，尽管英伟达（Nvidia，NVDA）经历了显著增长，但其股价可能不会继续呈指数级上升。文章指出，亚马逊和谷歌（Alphabet）在未来十年内可能会超过英伟达预计的 5 万亿美元市值。亚马逊在电子商务和云服务中的主导地位，以及谷歌在广告和云计算领域的盈利能力和增长潜力，使它们成为未来增长的强有力竞争者。作者认为这三家公司都是稳健的投资，但随着市场条件的变化，亚马逊和谷歌可能会超越英伟达</p>

<p>AI chip leader <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.02%) has delivered remarkable performance for investors, with a split-adjusted gain of about 2,470% over the past five years as the AI revolution has kicked into high gear. As of this writing, Nvidia is the most valuable publicly traded company in the U.S. stock market, with a market cap of more than $3.7 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能芯片领导者 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.02%) 在过去五年中为投资者带来了显著的回报，经过拆股调整后收益约为 2470%，因为人工智能革命已全面启动。截至目前，Nvidia 是美国股市中最有价值的上市公司，市值超过 3.7 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Don't get me wrong. I don't think Nvidia is a <em>bad</em> stock to buy right now. But I do think that after the current wave of AI investment subsides, the days of exponential stock price growth will be in the past and we'll see a period of somewhat muted gains in the tech giant. At about 33 times trailing-12-month sales, it's fair to say that there's a <em>lot</em> of growth priced into the stock at the current valuation. While nobody has a crystal ball that can accurately predict future market caps of companies, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nvidia have a valuation of about $5 trillion a decade from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>别误解我的意思。我并不认为现在购买 Nvidia 是一项_糟糕_的投资。但我确实认为，在当前的人工智能投资热潮消退后，股票价格的指数级增长时代将成为过去，我们将看到这家科技巨头的收益增长会有所减缓。以大约 33 倍的过去 12 个月销售额来看，可以公平地说，目前的估值中已经包含了_大量_的增长预期。虽然没有人能准确预测公司的未来市值，但我不会感到惊讶，如果十年后 Nvidia 的估值达到约 5 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>If this is correct, there are several stocks that I believe will surpass the $5 trillion level within the next decade. Here are two in particular I think have a good chance of overtaking the AI chip leader within the next 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这一点是正确的，我相信在未来十年内有几只股票将超过 5 万亿美元的市值。这里有两只我认为在未来 10 年内有很大机会超越人工智能芯片领导者的股票。</p>
</div><h2>2 great businesses with lots of room to grow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>两家有巨大增长空间的优秀企业</h2>
</div><p>It's rare to find a company with not one but two dominant businesses, but <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.01%) is in this category. And not only does Amazon lead the market in two completely different businesses, but both also have significant room to grow. If Amazon continues to execute and take advantage of industry tailwinds, its $2.4 trillion market cap could be much higher. I've said in the past that I believe Amazon will ultimately become the first member of the $5 trillion market cap club, and while I said that <em>before</em> Nvidia's massive run, it still wouldn't surprise me.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>找到一家不仅有一个而且有两个主导业务的公司是很罕见的，但 <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.01%) 就属于这一类。不仅如此，Amazon 在两个完全不同的业务领域中都处于市场领先地位，而且这两个业务都有显著的增长空间。如果 Amazon 继续执行并利用行业的顺风，2.4 万亿美元的市值可能会更高。我曾在过去说过，我相信 Amazon 最终会成为首个市值达到 5 万亿美元的公司，尽管我是在 Nvidia 大幅上涨之前说的，但这仍然不会让我感到惊讶。</p>
</div><p>On the e-commerce side of Amazon's business, the company has a larger market share than its next 10 competitors <em>combined</em>. But that doesn't mean it can't keep growing. E-commerce makes up only about 16% of U.S. retail sales, and this percentage has been steadily climbing for the past couple of decades. Plus, the bulk of Amazon's e-commerce revenue still comes from North America, and the international opportunity is still enormous.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Amazon 的电子商务业务方面，该公司的市场份额超过了其下 10 个竞争对手的_总和_。但这并不意味着它不能继续增长。电子商务仅占美国零售销售的约 16%，而这个比例在过去几十年中稳步上升。此外，Amazon 的电子商务收入大部分仍来自北美，国际市场的机会仍然巨大。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud infrastructure business, it's even more exciting. Amazon doesn't have quite as dominant of a market share as in e-commerce ( <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.52%) and <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -0.79%)(GOOG -0.67%) are the other big players), but the market itself is growing fast. In fact, the cloud computing market is expected to roughly triple in size globally by 2032. Plus, AWS is <em>by far</em> the more profitable side of the business and could fuel double-digit earnings growth for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈到 Amazon Web Services (AWS) 云基础设施业务时，更加令人兴奋。Amazon 在市场份额上并不像在电子商务中那样占据主导地位（ <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.52%) 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -0.79%)(GOOG -0.67%) 是其他主要参与者），但市场本身正在快速增长。事实上，预计到 2032 年，全球云计算市场的规模将大约增长三倍。此外，AWS 是业务中_远远_更具盈利性的部分，未来几年可能推动两位数的盈利增长。</p>
</div><h2>Massive profitability with upside potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨大的盈利能力与上行潜力</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet is best known for its Google subsidiary and has a market cap of about $2.4 trillion as of this writing. With a valuation of just 23 times forward earnings, there's also a solid case to be made that it is the cheapest of the Magnificent Seven stocks right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 以其 Google 子公司而闻名，截至目前市值约为 2.4 万亿美元。以仅 23 倍的前瞻性市盈率来看，可以说它是目前 “七大奇迹” 股票中最便宜的一只。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, this massively profitable industry leader, with a 28% net margin, could be a bargain right now. Its Google Services segment, which includes Search, Gmail, YouTube, Chrome, and most of Google's other consumer-facing products, could be a beneficiary of improving ad revenue in a strong economy, as well as the pro-business and deregulation policies that are likely to come with the incoming Trump administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实，这家拥有 28% 净利润率的高盈利行业领导者，现在可能是个便宜货。其 Google 服务部门，包括搜索、Gmail、YouTube、Chrome 以及大多数其他面向消费者的产品，可能会受益于强劲经济中广告收入的改善，以及即将到来的特朗普政府可能带来的亲商业和放松管制政策。</p>
</div><p>The other segment, Google Cloud, is a direct competitor with AWS, and benefits from the same industry tailwinds. Plus, Alphabet has tremendous financial flexibility to take advantage of growth opportunities, or to opportunistically return capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends (it is the only stock on this list that is a dividend payer). The company generates bottom-line profits at a rate of more than $100 billion annually, plus it has more than $93 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个部门，Google Cloud，是 AWS 的直接竞争对手，并受益于相同的行业顺风。此外，Alphabet 拥有巨大的财务灵活性，可以利用增长机会，或通过回购或分红机会性地向股东返还资本（它是这份名单中唯一支付股息的股票）。该公司每年产生超过 1000 亿美元的净利润，并且在资产负债表上拥有超过 930 亿美元的现金和短期投资。</p>
</div><h2>3 solid investments</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>三个稳健的投资选择</h2>
</div><p>Let's be clear. Whether you buy Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, or a combination of the three, I don't think there's any way you can go wrong. These are three extraordinary and well-run businesses, and I'd be shocked if all three aren't worth substantially more in a decade. That said, while the AI hype has pushed all three higher, it has caused a tremendous amount of future growth and profitability to be priced into Nvidia, so I could see these two stocks outperforming as Nvidia's business catches up to its stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们明确一点。无论你购买 Nvidia、Amazon、Alphabet，还是这三者的组合，我认为你都不会出错。这三家公司都是非凡且管理良好的企业，如果十年后这三者的价值没有显著增加，我会感到震惊。尽管如此，虽然人工智能的炒作推动了这三者的上涨，但它也导致了 Nvidia 的未来增长和盈利能力被大幅定价，因此我可以看到这两只股票在 Nvidia 的业务追赶其股价时表现优于 Nvidia。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 2 Stocks That'll Be Worth More Than Nvidia 10 Years From Now

- Nvidia 在过去五年中股价上涨约 2,470%，市值超过 3.7 万亿美元。  
- 预计 AI 投资热潮后，Nvidia 股价增长将放缓，未来十年可能达到 5 万亿美元。  
- 亚马逊和 Alphabet 被认为有潜力在未来十年超越 Nvidia 的市值。  

预测：10 年后价值将超过英伟达的两只股票