<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.02%) 是 2024 年表现最佳的股票之一，原因不言而喻。该公司提供的图形处理单元（GPU）迅速成为推动人工智能（AI）系统的黄金标准。对其芯片的需求浪潮使得该公司的市值在撰写本文时接近 3.7 万亿美元，目前使其成为全球第二大最有价值的公司。</p>
<p>然而，一些投资者已经在展望未来，因为如今人工智能的进步来得迅猛。第一波人工智能的特点是严格的基于规则的系统，局限于特定任务。第二波则见证了机器学习的发展，使得人工智能能够在海量数据集中发现模式并得出结论。生成式人工智能代表了人工智能发展的第三波，许多人认为它将以人工智能 “代理” 的形式为特征。这些下一代系统将具有更强的上下文理解能力，并能够在没有人类干预的情况下独立执行各种任务。</p>
<p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.52%) 正在引领代理人工智能的潮流，我预测到 2030 年该股票的价值将超过英伟达。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDMxMTgvYS1wZXJzb25zLWhhbmQtY3VwcGVkLW9wZW4td2l0aC1hLWhvbG9ncmFtLW9mLWFuLWFpLWNoYXRib3QtYWJvdmUtc2F5aW5nLWhpLWNhbi1pLWhlbHAteW91LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDMxMTgvYS1wZXJzb25zLWhhbmQtY3VwcGVkLW9wZW4td2l0aC1hLWhvbG9ncmFtLW9mLWFuLWFpLWNoYXRib3QtYWJvdmUtc2F5aW5nLWhpLWNhbi1pLWhlbHAteW91LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>从科幻到科学事实？</h2>
<p>许多投资者已经熟悉聊天机器人这一概念，或称为人工智能驱动的程序，以其回答问题和与人类对话的能力而闻名。这些系统的新颖性在过去几年中席卷了科技界，因为它们能够在定义的参数内非常快速地提供基本信息。</p>
<p>生成式人工智能的下一个阶段以微软 Copilot 为例。这套 AI 助手旨在提高工作环境中的生产力，优先处理和起草电子邮件，创建大纲和演示文稿，调试代码，创建图像等等。</p>
<p>然而，微软认为人工智能研究的圣杯是开发能够远远超越这些简单任务的人工智能代理，具备 “可靠地完成复杂的多步骤任务的能力，涵盖人们日常生活中遇到的各种场景。” 为此，该公司最近推出了 Magentic-One，称其 “旨在解决此类任务”。</p>
<p>该系统将多个人工智能代理结合在一起，以 Magentic-One 作为主代理或 “协调者”，使其能够协调其他代理的任务，跟踪其进展，并在出现问题时进行重新校准。这些个体代理可以执行诸如操作网页浏览器、编写或执行代码，或在本地文件中搜索数据等任务。</p>
<p>这紧随微软宣布客户可以在其 Copilot Studio 中创建自主代理的消息之后。该公司还为 Dynamics 365 推出了 10 个预构建的自主代理。例如：</p>
<ul>
<li>销售资格代理研究和优先处理来电销售线索，并为潜在客户创建个性化消息。</li>
<li>供应商沟通代理在供应链管理中确认采购订单和交付。</li>
<li>客户服务的案例管理代理自动化处理给定案例中的多个关键任务，包括票据创建、解决、跟进和关闭。</li>
</ul>
<p>自从微软在 11 月向 Copilot Studio 引入人工智能代理以来，该公司吸引了超过 100,000 个组织正在创建或编辑人工智能代理。此外，其平台与超过 1,400 个第三方系统集成，同时为用户提供访问 1,800 个大型语言模型的权限，这些模型支撑着生成式人工智能。事实上，微软拥有 “最大的人工智能代理生态系统——没有其他公司接近”，根据 Venture Beat 的说法。</p>
<p>微软提供了使用人工智能的客户的证言，显示每年节省了 5000 万美元或产生了相当于 “增加 187 名全职员工” 的生产力提升。这有助于说明代理人工智能的价值。</p>
<p>最后，作为其 Copilot 控制系统的一部分，微软推出了帮助 IT 部门衡量其人工智能支出投资回报的工具，消除了阻碍一些企业迈出这一步的关键障碍。</p>
<h2>这为何重要</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，人工智能对微软来说是一个福音，因为该公司一直在努力利用潜在的巨额收益。在其 2025 财年第一季度（截至 9 月 30 日），微软表示其 Azure 云服务增长的 12 个百分点是由于人工智能服务的推动。它还指出，“需求仍然高于我们的可用能力。” 为了满足这一需求，微软计划在本财年花费 800 亿美元用于额外的数据中心。</p>
<p>此外，虽然该公司没有单独列出其人工智能收入，但首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉表示，“我们的人工智能业务有望在下个季度超过 100 亿美元的年收入运行率，这将使其成为我们历史上最快达到这一里程碑的业务。” 许多人认为这仅仅是个开始，微软的人工智能战略到 2027 年每年可能产生高达 1000 亿美元的增量收入。如果该公司接近这一基准，股票可能会飙升。</p>
<p>明确来说，我并不是在押注英伟达，特别是考虑到它在人工智能革命中的地位。它也是我最大的持仓之一，所以我希望该公司能取得成功。然而，考虑到其迅猛的增长——在过去几年中上涨超过 900%——我预计英伟达的股票在未来几年将以更温和的速度增长。</p>
<p>与此同时，我认为微软的增长将因其在代理人工智能方面的努力而加速，这一战略在未来几年可能会带来丰厚的回报。</p>
<p>微软的前瞻性市盈率为 33 倍，而英伟达为 51 倍，这也使得微软成为一个更便宜的人工智能股票。</p>
<p>综合来看，这就是我预测到 2030 年微软的市值将超过英伟达的原因。</p>

微软

英伟达

<p>英伟达在 2024 年表现出色，受益于其 GPU 在人工智能系统中的需求，市值接近 3.7 万亿美元。然而，预计到 2030 年，微软将超越英伟达，引领第三波人工智能发展，凭借其生成式人工智能和人工智能代理。微软的 Copilot Studio 吸引了超过 10 万家组织，展示了人工智能代理提升生产力和节省成本的潜力。该公司计划投资 800 亿美元用于数据中心，以满足日益增长的人工智能需求，其人工智能业务预计很快将超过 100 亿美元的年收入运行率</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.02%) has been among the best-performing stocks of 2024, and it's easy to see why. The company provides the graphics processing units (GPUs) that quickly became the gold standard for powering artificial intelligence (AI) systems. The wave of demand for its chips has pushed the company's market cap to nearly $3.7 trillion as of this writing, currently making it the world's second most valuable company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -0.02%) 是 2024 年表现最佳的股票之一，原因不言而喻。该公司提供的图形处理单元（GPU）迅速成为推动人工智能（AI）系统的黄金标准。对其芯片的需求浪潮使得该公司的市值在撰写本文时接近 3.7 万亿美元，目前使其成为全球第二大最有价值的公司。</p>
</div><p>Yet some investors are already looking ahead, as advances in AI these days are coming fast and furious. The first wave of AI was characterized by strict rules-based systems that were limited to specific tasks. The second wave saw the development of machine learning, which ushered in the ability of AI to detect patterns buried within massive datasets and draw conclusions. Generative AI represents the third wave of AI development, and many believe it will be characterized by AI &#34;agents.&#34; These next-generation systems will have more contextual understanding and will be able to act independently of human intervention to perform a wide variety of tasks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一些投资者已经在展望未来，因为如今人工智能的进步来得迅猛。第一波人工智能的特点是严格的基于规则的系统，局限于特定任务。第二波则见证了机器学习的发展，使得人工智能能够在海量数据集中发现模式并得出结论。生成式人工智能代表了人工智能发展的第三波，许多人认为它将以人工智能 “代理” 的形式为特征。这些下一代系统将具有更强的上下文理解能力，并能够在没有人类干预的情况下独立执行各种任务。</p>
</div><p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.52%) is leading the charge in agentic AI, and I predict the stock will be worth more than Nvidia by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.52%) 正在引领代理人工智能的潮流，我预测到 2030 年该股票的价值将超过英伟达。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDMxMTgvYS1wZXJzb25zLWhhbmQtY3VwcGVkLW9wZW4td2l0aC1hLWhvbG9ncmFtLW9mLWFuLWFpLWNoYXRib3QtYWJvdmUtc2F5aW5nLWhpLWNhbi1pLWhlbHAteW91LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803118%2Fa-persons-hand-cupped-open-with-a-hologram-of-an-ai-chatbot-above-saying-hi-can-i-help-you.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>From science fiction to science fact?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从科幻到科学事实？</h2>
</div><p>Many investors are already familiar with the concept of chatbots, or AI-powered programs best known for their ability to answer questions and have conversations with humans. The novelty of these systems took the tech world by storm over the past few years, as they could provide basic information within defined parameters very quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多投资者已经熟悉聊天机器人这一概念，或称为人工智能驱动的程序，以其回答问题和与人类对话的能力而闻名。这些系统的新颖性在过去几年中席卷了科技界，因为它们能够在定义的参数内非常快速地提供基本信息。</p>
</div><p>The next phase of generative AI was exemplified by Microsoft Copilot. This suite of AI assistants was designed to increase productivity in a work setting, prioritizing and drafting emails, creating outlines and presentations, debugging code, creating images, and much more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生成式人工智能的下一个阶段以微软 Copilot 为例。这套 AI 助手旨在提高工作环境中的生产力，优先处理和起草电子邮件，创建大纲和演示文稿，调试代码，创建图像等等。</p>
</div><p>However, the holy grail of AI research -- according to Microsoft -- is the development of AI agents that can go far beyond these simple tasks, with the ability to &#34;reliably complete complex, multi-step tasks across a wide range of scenarios people encounter in their daily lives.&#34; To that end, the company recently introduced Magentic-One, which it says is &#34;designed to solve such tasks.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，微软认为人工智能研究的圣杯是开发能够远远超越这些简单任务的人工智能代理，具备 “可靠地完成复杂的多步骤任务的能力，涵盖人们日常生活中遇到的各种场景。” 为此，该公司最近推出了 Magentic-One，称其 “旨在解决此类任务”。</p>
</div><p>The system ties together multiple AI agents -- with Magentic-One as the lead agent or &#34;Orchestrator&#34; -- to enable it to coordinate the tasks of the other agents, track their progress, and recalibrate when there's a problem. These individual agents can perform tasks such as operating a web browser, writing or executing code, or searching local files for data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该系统将多个人工智能代理结合在一起，以 Magentic-One 作为主代理或 “协调者”，使其能够协调其他代理的任务，跟踪其进展，并在出现问题时进行重新校准。这些个体代理可以执行诸如操作网页浏览器、编写或执行代码，或在本地文件中搜索数据等任务。</p>
</div><p>This comes on the heels of Microsoft's announcement that customers can create autonomous agents within its Copilot Studio. The company also debuted 10 prebuilt autonomous agents for Dynamics 365. For example:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这紧随微软宣布客户可以在其 Copilot Studio 中创建自主代理的消息之后。该公司还为 Dynamics 365 推出了 10 个预构建的自主代理。例如：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The Sales Qualification agent researches and prioritizes incoming sales leads and creates personalized messages to potential customers.</li>
<li>The Supplier Communications Agent works in supply chain management to confirm purchase orders and deliveries.</li>
<li>The Case Management Agent for customer service automates a number of key tasks within a given case, including ticket creation, resolution, follow-up, and closure.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>销售资格代理研究和优先处理来电销售线索，并为潜在客户创建个性化消息。</li>
<li>供应商沟通代理在供应链管理中确认采购订单和交付。</li>
<li>客户服务的案例管理代理自动化处理给定案例中的多个关键任务，包括票据创建、解决、跟进和关闭。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Since Microsoft introduced AI agents to Copilot Studio in November, the company has attracted more than 100,000 organizations that are creating or editing AI agents. Furthermore, its platform integrates with more than 1,400 third-party systems while giving users access to 1,800 large language models that underpin generative AI. In fact, Microsoft has the &#34;largest AI agent ecosystem -- and no one else is close,&#34; according to Venture Beat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从微软在 11 月向 Copilot Studio 引入人工智能代理以来，该公司吸引了超过 100,000 个组织正在创建或编辑人工智能代理。此外，其平台与超过 1,400 个第三方系统集成，同时为用户提供访问 1,800 个大型语言模型的权限，这些模型支撑着生成式人工智能。事实上，微软拥有 “最大的人工智能代理生态系统——没有其他公司接近”，根据 Venture Beat 的说法。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft has provided testimonials from customers using AI that resulted in savings of $50 million annually or generated productivity gains equivalent to &#34;adding 187 full-time employees.&#34; This helps illustrate the value of agentic AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软提供了使用人工智能的客户的证言，显示每年节省了 5000 万美元或产生了相当于 “增加 187 名全职员工” 的生产力提升。这有助于说明代理人工智能的价值。</p>
</div><p>Finally, as part of its Copilot Control System, Microsoft has debuted tools that help IT departments measure return on investment for their AI spending, removing a key hurdle that has kept some businesses from taking the plunge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，作为其 Copilot 控制系统的一部分，微软推出了帮助 IT 部门衡量其人工智能支出投资回报的工具，消除了阻碍一些企业迈出这一步的关键障碍。</p>
</div><h2>Why it matters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这为何重要</h2>
</div><p>Make no mistake, AI has been a boon to Microsoft, as the company has been working feverishly to capitalize on the potential windfall. In its fiscal 2025 first quarter (ended Sept. 30), Microsoft said that 12 points of its Azure Cloud growth was the result of AI services. It went on to note that &#34;Demand continues to be higher than our available capacity.&#34; To meet that demand, Microsoft is on track to spend $80 billion on additional data centers this fiscal year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，人工智能对微软来说是一个福音，因为该公司一直在努力利用潜在的巨额收益。在其 2025 财年第一季度（截至 9 月 30 日），微软表示其 Azure 云服务增长的 12 个百分点是由于人工智能服务的推动。它还指出，“需求仍然高于我们的可用能力。” 为了满足这一需求，微软计划在本财年花费 800 亿美元用于额外的数据中心。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, while the company doesn't break out its AI revenue, CEO Satya Nadella said, &#34;Our AI business is on track to surpass an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, which will make it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.&#34; Many believe that's just the beginning, with Microsoft's AI strategy generating as much as $100 billion in incremental revenue annually by 2027. If the company comes anywhere close to that benchmark, the stock will likely soar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，虽然该公司没有单独列出其人工智能收入，但首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉表示，“我们的人工智能业务有望在下个季度超过 100 亿美元的年收入运行率，这将使其成为我们历史上最快达到这一里程碑的业务。” 许多人认为这仅仅是个开始，微软的人工智能战略到 2027 年每年可能产生高达 1000 亿美元的增量收入。如果该公司接近这一基准，股票可能会飙升。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, I'm not betting against Nvidia, particularly given its place in the AI revolution. It's also one of my largest positions, so I'm rooting for the company to succeed. However, given its meteoric rise -- up more than 900% over the past couple of years -- I expect Nvidia's stock to grow at a more moderate pace over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明确来说，我并不是在押注英伟达，特别是考虑到它在人工智能革命中的地位。它也是我最大的持仓之一，所以我希望该公司能取得成功。然而，考虑到其迅猛的增长——在过去几年中上涨超过 900%——我预计英伟达的股票在未来几年将以更温和的速度增长。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, I think Microsoft's growth will accelerate thanks to its efforts with agentic AI, a strategy that will likely pay dividends for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，我认为微软的增长将因其在代理人工智能方面的努力而加速，这一战略在未来几年可能会带来丰厚的回报。</p>
</div><p>It also doesn't hurt that Microsoft is selling for 33 times forward earnings compared to 51 times forward earnings for Nvidia, so it's also a cheaper AI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的前瞻性市盈率为 33 倍，而英伟达为 51 倍，这也使得微软成为一个更便宜的人工智能股票。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, this is why I predict Microsoft will be worth more than Nvidia by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，这就是我预测到 2030 年微软的市值将超过英伟达的原因。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 1 Unstoppable Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Will Lead the "Third Wave" of AI Development and Be Worth More Than Nvidia by 2030

- Nvidia 是 2024 年表现最佳的股票之一，市值接近 3.7 万亿美元。  
- Microsoft 在代理 AI 领域领先，吸引超过 100,000 个组织使用其 AI 代理。  
- 预计到 2030 年，Microsoft 的市值将超过 Nvidia。

预测：一种不可阻挡的人工智能（AI）股票将引领 “第三波” AI 发展，并在 2030 年之前市值超过英伟达