<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.15%）的股价在选举后的激增后出现回落。截至目前，股价距离去年 12 月中旬的历史高点下跌了 19%。而在 2025 年迄今为止，股价下跌了约 5%。</p>
<p>全球顶尖的电动车（EV）股票对股东来说仍然表现得非常出色；在过去五年中（截至 1 月 8 日），其股价飙升了 1170%。但考虑到其当前市值超过 1.2 万亿美元，特斯拉现在是一个值得购买的公司吗？</p>
<h2>面临挑战</h2>
<p>特斯拉在过去十年的快速崛起令人着迷，因为该公司凭借其受欢迎的电动车型颠覆了汽车行业。然而，市场的背景已经从强劲转向更加具有挑战性。特斯拉正在亲身经历这一变化。</p>
<p>去年，该公司交付的电动车数量比 2023 年减少了 1%。在过去的五个季度中，这一重要指标实际上已经停滞不前。电动车市场的需求仍然强劲，毫无疑问。但其增长速度显然比过去几年慢。通货膨胀压力和更高的利率可能是部分原因。</p>
<p>值得指出的是，传统汽车制造商正在侵占特斯拉的市场。<strong>福特</strong> 在 2024 年报告电动车销量增长了 35%。而 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 报告称，去年电动车销量激增了 125%。</p>
<p>这突显了行业竞争的加剧。所有传统汽车制造商都在参与其中。同时，还有一些专注于电动车的公司在与特斯拉竞争，尤其是在中国，电动车占整体汽车销量的约一半。这一比例远高于美国。</p>
<p>更激烈的竞争也在损害特斯拉的财务状况，特别是其提高利润的能力。当电动车市场竞争较少时，特斯拉能够持续展现其定价能力。在沃伦·巴菲特看来，这一关键特征表明了高质量企业的特征。然而，特斯拉近年来一直在降价，以维持市场份额。这可能是该企业竞争地位受到压力的迹象。</p>
<h2>为不确定的结果支付高价</h2>
<p>特斯拉在第四季度的 91% 收入来自电动车及相关服务的销售。因此，可能仍然将其视为一家汽车公司是正确的选择，而目前正面临逆风。</p>
<p>为了购买这样的企业，投资者被要求支付 109 的市盈率（P/E）。对于一家汽车制造商来说，这个估值实在是过高。作为比较，科技股占主导的 <strong>纳斯达克 100 指数</strong> 的平均市盈率为 32。而 <strong>英伟达</strong>，这个全球最热门的公司，其股价的市盈率为 55。特斯拉的交易确实反映了高期望。</p>
<p>这是因为投资者将该股票视为对创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克可能实现的目标的押注。最终推出无人驾驶能力可能使特斯拉实现其推出全球机器人出租车服务的终极目标。人们也希望该公司能够广泛商业化其类人机器人。</p>
<p>然而，自动驾驶技术和机器人技术的成功与广泛应用并不确定。必须克服监管和技术障碍。此外，人们必须对这一切感到舒适，特别是在将汽车的完全控制权交给机器的想法上。结果尚不确定，但估值反映了对巨大成功的期望。</p>
<p>即使在 11 月选举后股价大幅上涨之前，我就认为这些股票已经很贵。这使得今天的估值更加令人警惕。特斯拉在投资界的评价相当高。但我认为在这些价格下，股票并不是一个明智的购买选择。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>特斯拉的股票从历史高点回落了 19%，2025 年下降了 5%。尽管在五年内增长了 1,170%，但公司面临挑战，包括电动车交付量下降 1% 以及来自传统汽车制造商的竞争加剧。特斯拉高达 109 的市盈率引发了对其估值的担忧，尤其是在公司降价以维持市场份额的情况下。投资者押注于未来的创新，如自动驾驶技术和类人机器人，但仍存在不确定性。尽管该股票受到积极看待，但当前的估值可能不足以支持买入</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 0.15%) shares are retreating after a post-election surge. As of this writing, they trade 19% off their all-time high from mid-December. And so far in 2025, they're down about 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.15%）的股价在选举后的激增后出现回落。截至目前，股价距离去年 12 月中旬的历史高点下跌了 19%。而在 2025 年迄今为止，股价下跌了约 5%。</p>
</div><p>The world's top electric vehicle (EV) stock has still worked out incredibly well for shareholders; it soared 1,170% during the past five years (as of Jan. 8). But with its current market cap exceeding $1.2 trillion, is Tesla a company you should be buying right now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球顶尖的电动车（EV）股票对股东来说仍然表现得非常出色；在过去五年中（截至 1 月 8 日），其股价飙升了 1170%。但考虑到其当前市值超过 1.2 万亿美元，特斯拉现在是一个值得购买的公司吗？</p>
</div><h2>Facing challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>面临挑战</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's rapid ascent in the past decade is mesmerizing, as the business disrupted the auto industry with its popular EV models. However, the market has shifted from a robust backdrop to now being much more challenging. Tesla is experiencing this firsthand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在过去十年的快速崛起令人着迷，因为该公司凭借其受欢迎的电动车型颠覆了汽车行业。然而，市场的背景已经从强劲转向更加具有挑战性。特斯拉正在亲身经历这一变化。</p>
</div><p>Last year, the company delivered 1% fewer EVs than in 2023. On a trailing-12-month basis, this important metric has actually plateaued during the past five quarters. Demand in the EV market is still strong, to be sure. But it's definitely rising at a slower pace than in past years. Inflationary pressures and higher interest rates might deserve some blame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，该公司交付的电动车数量比 2023 年减少了 1%。在过去的五个季度中，这一重要指标实际上已经停滞不前。电动车市场的需求仍然强劲，毫无疑问。但其增长速度显然比过去几年慢。通货膨胀压力和更高的利率可能是部分原因。</p>
</div><p>It's worth pointing out that incumbent carmakers are encroaching on Tesla's turf. <strong>Ford</strong> reported a 35% increase in EV units sold in 2024. And <strong>General Motors</strong> reported EV sales surged 125% last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得指出的是，传统汽车制造商正在侵占特斯拉的市场。<strong>福特</strong> 在 2024 年报告电动车销量增长了 35%。而 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 报告称，去年电动车销量激增了 125%。</p>
</div><p>This highlights just how competitive the industry is becoming. There are the legacy carmakers all getting in on the action. There are also strictly EV-focused companies giving Tesla a run for its money, most notably in China, where EVs represent about half of overall auto sales. That's a much higher proportion than here in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这突显了行业竞争的加剧。所有传统汽车制造商都在参与其中。同时，还有一些专注于电动车的公司在与特斯拉竞争，尤其是在中国，电动车占整体汽车销量的约一半。这一比例远高于美国。</p>
</div><p>Stiffer competition also is hurting Tesla's financials, particularly its ability to increase profit. When the EV market was less crowded, Tesla was able to consistently flex its pricing power. In Warren Buffett's mind, this key trait is indicative of a high-quality enterprise. However, Tesla has been cutting prices in recent years in an effort to maintain market share. This could be a sign that the business's competitive standing is under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更激烈的竞争也在损害特斯拉的财务状况，特别是其提高利润的能力。当电动车市场竞争较少时，特斯拉能够持续展现其定价能力。在沃伦·巴菲特看来，这一关键特征表明了高质量企业的特征。然而，特斯拉近年来一直在降价，以维持市场份额。这可能是该企业竞争地位受到压力的迹象。</p>
</div><h2>Paying up for an uncertain outcome</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为不确定的结果支付高价</h2>
</div><p>Tesla generated 91% of its revenue in Q4 from the sale of EVs and related services. Consequently, it's probably the right move to still view it as a car company, one that's facing headwinds at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在第四季度的 91% 收入来自电动车及相关服务的销售。因此，可能仍然将其视为一家汽车公司是正确的选择，而目前正面临逆风。</p>
</div><p>To buy such a business, investors are being asked to pay a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 109. That's an insanely high valuation for an auto manufacturer. For comparison's sake, the tech-heavy <strong>Nasdaq-100 Index</strong> trades at an an average P/E multiple of 32. And the shares of <strong>Nvidia</strong>, the hottest company on the face of the planet, can be purchased for a P/E ratio of 55. Tesla is truly trading with some lofty expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了购买这样的企业，投资者被要求支付 109 的市盈率（P/E）。对于一家汽车制造商来说，这个估值实在是过高。作为比较，科技股占主导的 <strong>纳斯达克 100 指数</strong> 的平均市盈率为 32。而 <strong>英伟达</strong>，这个全球最热门的公司，其股价的市盈率为 55。特斯拉的交易确实反映了高期望。</p>
</div><p>That's because investors view the stock as a bet on what founder and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk could do. Finally introducing unsupervised self-driving capabilities could allow Tesla to realize its ultimate goal of launching a global robotaxi service. There is also hope that the business can broadly commercialize its humanoid robot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是因为投资者将该股票视为对创始人兼首席执行官埃隆·马斯克可能实现的目标的押注。最终推出无人驾驶能力可能使特斯拉实现其推出全球机器人出租车服务的终极目标。人们也希望该公司能够广泛商业化其类人机器人。</p>
</div><p>The success and wide adoption of autonomous tech and robotics isn't certain, though. There are regulatory and technical hurdles that must be cleared. What's more, humans have to be comfortable with all of this, particularly around the idea of giving up complete control of a car to a machine. The outcome is unknown, but the valuation reflects expectations of tremendous success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自动驾驶技术和机器人技术的成功与广泛应用并不确定。必须克服监管和技术障碍。此外，人们必须对这一切感到舒适，特别是在将汽车的完全控制权交给机器的想法上。结果尚不确定，但估值反映了对巨大成功的期望。</p>
</div><p>Even before the stock's huge run-up after the election in November, I thought the shares were expensive. That makes today's valuation even more of a red flag. Tesla is viewed quite favorably in the investment community. But I don't believe the stock is a smart buy at these prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在 11 月选举后股价大幅上涨之前，我就认为这些股票已经很贵。这使得今天的估值更加令人警惕。特斯拉在投资界的评价相当高。但我认为在这些价格下，股票并不是一个明智的购买选择。</p>
</div>

Is Tesla Stock a Buy Now?

- 特斯拉股价在选举后回落，目前比历史高点低 19%。  
- 2025 年迄今，特斯拉股价下跌约 5%。  
- 竞争加剧和高估值使投资者面临不确定性。

特斯拉股票现在是否值得购买？