<p>意外强劲的 12 月就业报告使 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 在周五早盘暴跌超过 600 点（1.5%），同时美国国债收益率持续上升，通胀担忧成为焦点。大多数行业都面临困难，包括金融行业。</p>
<p>截至东部时间上午 11:46，<strong>富国银行</strong>（WFC -2.65%）的股价下跌了 2.6%，而投资银行 <strong>杰富瑞金融</strong>（JEF -11.97%）下跌了 11.4%，私募股权巨头 <strong>黑石集团</strong>（BX -4.67%）的股价也下跌了约 5%。</p>
<h2>收益率、就业和再次的收益率</h2>
<p>自 12 月中旬以来，投资者对持续的通胀问题越来越担忧，这也是美联储关注的重点。美联储已将 2025 年降息的预测从四次下调至两次。市场对降息前景的看法更加悲观，而周五的就业报告并没有改善这种情况。12 月非农就业人数增加了 256,000 个职位，比道琼斯的共识高出 100,000 个，并且比 11 月的 212,000 个有所上升。如果这个就业报告中有一个积极的方面，那就是每小时工资比上个月增长了 0.3%，符合预期。每小时工资同比增长 3.9%，略低于预期。</p>
<p>押注美联储如何处理联邦基金利率的交易员现在几乎认为 1 月份不会降息，75% 的交易员认为美联储在 3 月份也将维持利率不变。大约 40% 的交易员仅预计 2025 年会有一次降息。</p>
<p>&#34;意外强劲的就业报告肯定不会让美联储变得不那么鹰派，&#34;<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 首席经济策略师艾伦·赞特告诉 CNBC。&#34;所有的目光现在都将转向下周的通胀数据，但即使这些数字出现意外下滑，可能也不足以让美联储很快降息。&#34;</p>
<p>周五该行业没有太多公司特定的新闻，但更高的利率可能对银行和金融机构产生多重影响。其中最显著的是，它们增加了存款成本，并重新引发了信贷担忧，特别是商业房地产贷款。黑石集团有许多房地产投资，当利率上升时，它们的借款成本也会增加，这可能会影响估值。此外，更高的利率和更多的波动性可能会给投资银行活动带来麻烦，而该行业的投资者希望今年能有所反弹。</p>
<p>杰富瑞是一家纯粹的投资银行。周三，它报告的收益比去年同期增长了 200%，得益于交易活动的反弹，因此也许今年的活动仍会改善。然而，高利率环境在过去几年中阻碍了交易和首次公开募股。持续的高利率可能会对这一活动产生制约。</p>
<h2>从积极的方面看...</h2>
<p>我对今年金融行业的前景仍然持乐观态度。是的，国债的市场利率正在上升，但收益率曲线仍在陡峭化，这与过去几年相比是一个良好的变化，应该有助于银行的利润。此外，特朗普当选总统的政府对银行应该更加有利，监管会更宽松，资本要求也会降低，监管机构由更快批准银行收购的任命官员管理。</p>
<p>投资者应该记住，利率的前景可能会迅速变化。下周将发布新的通胀数据，疲软的读数可能会帮助收益率稍微下降。看到收益率上升是更好的，因为收益率曲线的陡峭化可能表明经济扩张。短期内将会波动，收益率高企，投资者试图预测特朗普潜在关税和其他政策的影响。不过，我认为像富国银行和杰富瑞这样的银行股现在并不是一个糟糕的选择。</p>

富国银行

黑石集团

<p>金融股，包括富国银行、杰富瑞和黑石集团，在 12 月份的就业报告强于预期后下跌，该报告引发了通胀担忧，并导致道琼斯工业平均指数下跌超过 600 点。富国银行股价下跌 2.6%，杰富瑞下跌 11.4%，黑石集团下跌 5%。报告显示新增就业岗位为 256,000 个，超出预期，而工资增长符合预测。美联储对降息的前景也发生了变化，交易员们现在预计 2025 年的降息次数将减少，这对金融行业的表现产生了影响</p>

<p>A hotter-than-expected December jobs report sent the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> tumbling by more than 600 points (1.5%) on Friday morning as U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise and inflation concerns took center stage. Most sectors struggled, including financials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>意外强劲的 12 月就业报告使 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 在周五早盘暴跌超过 600 点（1.5%），同时美国国债收益率持续上升，通胀担忧成为焦点。大多数行业都面临困难，包括金融行业。</p>
</div><p>Shares of <strong>Wells Fargo</strong>(WFC -2.65%) were trading 2.6% lower as of 11:46 a.m. ET, while investment bank <strong>Jefferies Financial</strong>(JEF -11.97%) was off by 11.4% and private equity giant <strong>Blackstone</strong>(BX -4.67%) was down by roughly 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至东部时间上午 11:46，<strong>富国银行</strong>（WFC -2.65%）的股价下跌了 2.6%，而投资银行 <strong>杰富瑞金融</strong>（JEF -11.97%）下跌了 11.4%，私募股权巨头 <strong>黑石集团</strong>（BX -4.67%）的股价也下跌了约 5%。</p>
</div><h2>Yields, jobs, and yields again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收益率、就业和再次的收益率</h2>
</div><p>Since mid-December, investors have grown increasingly concerned about sticky inflation, an issue that is also top of mind for the Federal Reserve. The Fed has pared back its forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025 from four to two. The market is even more pessimistic on the outlook for rate cuts, and Friday's jobs report didn't help. Nonfarm payrolls in December added 256,000 jobs, 100,000 more than the Dow Jones consensus, and up from 212,000 in November. If there was a silver lining in that jobs report, it would be that hourly wages grew 0.3% from the prior month, in line with expectations. Hourly wages grew 3.9% year over year, slightly below estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 12 月中旬以来，投资者对持续的通胀问题越来越担忧，这也是美联储关注的重点。美联储已将 2025 年降息的预测从四次下调至两次。市场对降息前景的看法更加悲观，而周五的就业报告并没有改善这种情况。12 月非农就业人数增加了 256,000 个职位，比道琼斯的共识高出 100,000 个，并且比 11 月的 212,000 个有所上升。如果这个就业报告中有一个积极的方面，那就是每小时工资比上个月增长了 0.3%，符合预期。每小时工资同比增长 3.9%，略低于预期。</p>
</div><p>Traders betting on how the Fed will deal with the federal funds rate now see virtually no chance of a rate cut in January, and 75% of traders think the Fed will leave rates unchanged in March as well. About 40% of traders only expect one rate cut in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>押注美联储如何处理联邦基金利率的交易员现在几乎认为 1 月份不会降息，75% 的交易员认为美联储在 3 月份也将维持利率不变。大约 40% 的交易员仅预计 2025 年会有一次降息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The surprisingly strong jobs report certainly isn't going to make the Fed less hawkish,&#34; <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner told CNBC. &#34;All eyes will now turn to next week's inflation data, but even a downside surprise in those numbers probably won't be enough to get the Fed to cut rates any time soon.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;意外强劲的就业报告肯定不会让美联储变得不那么鹰派，&#34;<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 首席经济策略师艾伦·赞特告诉 CNBC。&#34;所有的目光现在都将转向下周的通胀数据，但即使这些数字出现意外下滑，可能也不足以让美联储很快降息。&#34;</p>
</div><p>There wasn't much company-specific news Friday in the sector, but higher interest rates can have several consequences for banks and financial institutions. Prominent among them, they increase the cost of deposits and renew credit concerns, particularly for commercial real estate loans. Blackstone has many real estate investments, and their borrowing costs increase when rates are higher, which could put a dent in valuations. Additionally, higher rates and more volatility can spell trouble for investment banking activity, which investors in the sector are hoping will rebound this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五该行业没有太多公司特定的新闻，但更高的利率可能对银行和金融机构产生多重影响。其中最显著的是，它们增加了存款成本，并重新引发了信贷担忧，特别是商业房地产贷款。黑石集团有许多房地产投资，当利率上升时，它们的借款成本也会增加，这可能会影响估值。此外，更高的利率和更多的波动性可能会给投资银行活动带来麻烦，而该行业的投资者希望今年能有所反弹。</p>
</div><p>Jefferies is a pure-play investment bank. On Wednesday, it reported earnings that were up 200% from the same period a year ago, powered by a rebound in deal-making, so perhaps activity will still improve this year. However, the high interest rate environment has hindered deal-making and initial public offerings over the last few years. The persistence of higher rates for longer could put the brakes on that activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杰富瑞是一家纯粹的投资银行。周三，它报告的收益比去年同期增长了 200%，得益于交易活动的反弹，因此也许今年的活动仍会改善。然而，高利率环境在过去几年中阻碍了交易和首次公开募股。持续的高利率可能会对这一活动产生制约。</p>
</div><h2>On the bright side...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从积极的方面看...</h2>
</div><p>I'm still optimistic about the outlook for financials this year. Yes, market rates on Treasuries are going up, but the yield curve is still steepening, which is a nice change from the past few years and should help bank margins. Furthermore, President-elect Donald Trump's administration should be more favorable for banks, with looser regulation and less stringent capital requirements, and with regulatory agencies run by appointees who will be more quick to approve bank acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我对今年金融行业的前景仍然持乐观态度。是的，国债的市场利率正在上升，但收益率曲线仍在陡峭化，这与过去几年相比是一个良好的变化，应该有助于银行的利润。此外，特朗普当选总统的政府对银行应该更加有利，监管会更宽松，资本要求也会降低，监管机构由更快批准银行收购的任命官员管理。</p>
</div><p>Investors should remember that the outlook for interest rates can change quickly. Next week, new inflation data will come out, and a weak reading may help bring yields down a bit. It's also better to see yields rising as the yield curve steepens, as that can indicate economic expansion. The near term will be volatile, with elevated yields and investors trying to predict the impact of Trump's potential tariffs and other policies. Still, I don't think bank stocks like Wells Fargo and Jefferies are a bad play now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该记住，利率的前景可能会迅速变化。下周将发布新的通胀数据，疲软的读数可能会帮助收益率稍微下降。看到收益率上升是更好的，因为收益率曲线的陡峭化可能表明经济扩张。短期内将会波动，收益率高企，投资者试图预测特朗普潜在关税和其他政策的影响。不过，我认为像富国银行和杰富瑞这样的银行股现在并不是一个糟糕的选择。</p>
</div>

Financial Stocks Wells Fargo, Jefferies, and Blackstone Are Falling After a Hot Jobs Report

- 12 月就业报告超预期，导致道琼斯指数下跌超过 600 点。  
- 非农就业人数增加 256,000，超出预期，失业率保持稳定。  
- 高利率环境可能影响银行和投资银行的活动，但前景仍被看好。  

在一份火热的就业报告发布后，富国银行、杰富瑞和黑石集团的金融股下跌