<p>数百万顾客定期在 <strong>开市客</strong>(COST 1.03%) 购物，吸引他们的是其广泛产品的低价。该公司在美国（包括波多黎各）、加拿大、墨西哥、澳大利亚、新西兰、中国、日本、韩国、台湾、法国、瑞典、英国，甚至冰岛运营着近 900 个仅对会员开放的仓库。</p>
<p>但尽管开市客的货架上的产品便宜，其股票却并不便宜：这家折扣批发商的股票目前的市盈率超过 54 倍。以下是开市客股票上次如此昂贵时发生的事情。</p>
<h2>像 1999 年那样狂欢？</h2>
<p>在我们回顾过去之前，先来解决一个可能的反对意见，即开市客的股票是否真的昂贵。市盈率高的股票是否可能仍然具有吸引力的估值？绝对有可能。当一家公司的增长前景异常强劲时，就会出现这种情况。</p>
<p>然而，这似乎并不是开市客的情况。其前瞻性市盈率为 50.8，仍然处于极高水平。根据金融基础设施和数据提供商 <strong>LSEG</strong> 的数据，该股票的市盈率与增长比率（PEG）也高达 5.5。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f54b4d6dbd39a496ad81a71c0becc.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f54b4d6dbd39a496ad81a71c0becc.png"/></p>
<p>COST PE Ratio 数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>现实是，自 1999 年 4 月以来，开市客的股票比以往任何时候都要昂贵，当时其过去 12 个月的市盈率达到了 56.4。那么，在公司估值达到该水平后发生了什么？结果并不美好。</p>
<p>几个月内，开市客的股价下跌超过 20%。尽管它反弹了，但反弹并没有持续太久。2000 年，股价更是暴跌超过 40%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5bda2449c72e8453eafeb2f4115cc1f1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5bda2449c72e8453eafeb2f4115cc1f1.png"/></p>
<p>COST 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>历史会重演吗？</h2>
<p>任何统计学家都会告诉你，样本量为 1 在预测未来可能发生的事情时毫无用处。而我们只有一次开市客股票大致与现在一样昂贵的过去经历。</p>
<p>历史爱好者也可能会迅速指出，开市客在 1999 年达到了最高的市盈率，不久之后互联网泡沫就破裂了。许多股票的估值并没有得到其商业基本面的支持。虽然当时开市客并不是一家互联网公司，但其股票也卷入了那种狂热和不可避免的后果中。</p>
<p>因此，可以提出一个相当不错的论点，即历史不一定会在现在重演。另一方面，1999 年和 2025 年之间确实存在一些潜在的令人担忧的相似之处。</p>
<p>股市再次变得昂贵。这一次，人工智能（AI）的热情是推动繁荣的关键因素，而不是电子商务。然而，一些观察者认为市场正处于一个类似于互联网泡沫的人工智能泡沫中。</p>
<p>不仅仅是互联网股票在 1999 年变得超级昂贵，正如 2025 年高估值并不局限于人工智能股票一样。开市客当时是个例外，现在也是。</p>
<h2>购买开市客股票的理由</h2>
<p>我的几位 <strong>Motley Fool</strong> 同事认为，尽管开市客的估值很高，但其股票仍然可以继续上涨。他们为购买该股票提供了有力的理由。</p>
<p>Demitri Kalogeropoulos 最近写道：&#34;开市客通过持续赢得市场份额和构建一种零售即服务的商业模式，赚取了相对于同行的溢价，这种模式产生了高度稳定的会员费用。&#34; 他对开市客的业绩记录是完全正确的。</p>
<p>Geoffrey Seiler 几周前指出：&#34;围绕开市客估值的问题在过去几年中一直是一个相当普遍的主题，但该股票仍然表现非常好。&#34; 他也是对的。</p>
<p>Billy Duberstein 在对开市客的分析中总结道：&#34;凭借其韧性的商业模式和多年来增长及利润扩张的机会，该股票并不像看起来那么疯狂昂贵。&#34; 我认为这也是非常准确的。</p>
<p>我通常同意这三种观点。然而，如果你认为接下来会有一个 “但是”，你是对的。</p>
<p>开市客是一家经过验证的赢家，但其股价最终必须由收益来证明。如果公司的收益增长不足以支持超过 50 的市盈率，其股票可能会下跌到更符合现实增长预期的水平。开市客在最新一季度报告的同比收益增长为 13%。在我看来，这还不够。</p>
<p>除非开市客的收益显著加速（这是可能的），否则其股价迟早可能会下跌。我认为该股票在 2025 年不一定会下跌，特别是如果通货膨胀重新抬头并推动更多顾客前往公司的仓库。然而，无论何时出现回调，这可能为长期投资者提供一个绝佳的买入机会——如果历史重演的话。</p>

开市客

<p>开市客的股票目前的市盈率超过 54 倍，是自 1999 年 4 月以来的最高水平。历史数据显示，当开市客的市盈率达到类似水平时，股价在不久后下跌超过 20%。虽然一些分析师认为开市客强大的市场地位证明了其高估值是合理的，但人们仍然对其维持盈利增长的能力表示担忧。如果开市客的盈利没有加速增长，股价下跌可能是不可避免的，尽管任何回调都可能为长期投资者提供买入机会</p>

<p>Millions of customers regularly shop at <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 1.03%), drawn by its low prices on a wide range of products. The company operates nearly 900 warehouses open to members only in the U.S. (including Puerto Rico), Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, France, Sweden, the U.K., and even Iceland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数百万顾客定期在 <strong>开市客</strong>(COST 1.03%) 购物，吸引他们的是其广泛产品的低价。该公司在美国（包括波多黎各）、加拿大、墨西哥、澳大利亚、新西兰、中国、日本、韩国、台湾、法国、瑞典、英国，甚至冰岛运营着近 900 个仅对会员开放的仓库。</p>
</div><p>But while the products on Costco's shelves are cheap, its stock isn't: The discount wholesaler's shares currently trade at over 54 times earnings. Here's what happened the last time Costco stock was this expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管开市客的货架上的产品便宜，其股票却并不便宜：这家折扣批发商的股票目前的市盈率超过 54 倍。以下是开市客股票上次如此昂贵时发生的事情。</p>
</div><h2>Party like it's 1999?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>像 1999 年那样狂欢？</h2>
</div><p>Before we look to the past, let's address a potential objection to the premise that Costco stock is expensive. Is it possible that a stock with a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio could still be attractively valued? Absolutely. That can happen when a company's growth prospects are exceptionally strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我们回顾过去之前，先来解决一个可能的反对意见，即开市客的股票是否真的昂贵。市盈率高的股票是否可能仍然具有吸引力的估值？绝对有可能。当一家公司的增长前景异常强劲时，就会出现这种情况。</p>
</div><p>However, that doesn't appear to be the case with Costco. Its forward earnings multiple of 50.8 is still at a nosebleed level. The stock's price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, which includes growth projections over the next five years, is also a sky-high 5.5, according to financial infrastructure and data provider <strong>LSEG</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这似乎并不是开市客的情况。其前瞻性市盈率为 50.8，仍然处于极高水平。根据金融基础设施和数据提供商 <strong>LSEG</strong> 的数据，该股票的市盈率与增长比率（PEG）也高达 5.5。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f54b4d6dbd39a496ad81a71c0becc.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f54b4d6dbd39a496ad81a71c0becc.png"/></p>
<p>COST PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COST PE Ratio 数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The reality is that Costco stock is more expensive than it's been since April 1999, when its trailing 12-month P/E multiple hit 56.4. What happened after the company's valuation reached that level? It wasn't pretty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现实是，自 1999 年 4 月以来，开市客的股票比以往任何时候都要昂贵，当时其过去 12 个月的市盈率达到了 56.4。那么，在公司估值达到该水平后发生了什么？结果并不美好。</p>
</div><p>In a matter of months, Costco's share price fell more than 20%. Although it rebounded, the bounce didn't last very long. An even steeper sell-off came in 2000 with the stock plunging more than 40%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几个月内，开市客的股价下跌超过 20%。尽管它反弹了，但反弹并没有持续太久。2000 年，股价更是暴跌超过 40%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5bda2449c72e8453eafeb2f4115cc1f1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5bda2449c72e8453eafeb2f4115cc1f1.png"/></p>
<p>COST data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COST 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Will history repeat itself?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史会重演吗？</h2>
</div><p>Any statistician will tell you that a sample size of one is useless in predicting what might happen. And we only have one past occasion when Costco stock was roughly as expensive as it is now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何统计学家都会告诉你，样本量为 1 在预测未来可能发生的事情时毫无用处。而我们只有一次开市客股票大致与现在一样昂贵的过去经历。</p>
</div><p>History buffs might also be quick to point out that Costco reached its highest P/E ratio in 1999 not long before the dot-com bubble burst. Many stocks sported valuations that weren't justified by their business fundamentals. While Costco wasn't a dot-com company then, its stock was caught up in the exuberance and the inevitable aftermath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史爱好者也可能会迅速指出，开市客在 1999 年达到了最高的市盈率，不久之后互联网泡沫就破裂了。许多股票的估值并没有得到其商业基本面的支持。虽然当时开市客并不是一家互联网公司，但其股票也卷入了那种狂热和不可避免的后果中。</p>
</div><p>A pretty good argument can be made, therefore, that history won't necessarily repeat itself now. On the other hand, there are some potentially worrisome similarities between 1999 and 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，可以提出一个相当不错的论点，即历史不一定会在现在重演。另一方面，1999 年和 2025 年之间确实存在一些潜在的令人担忧的相似之处。</p>
</div><p>The stock market is again expensive. This time around, enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI) is a key driver behind the boom instead of e-commerce. However, some observers believe the market is in an AI bubble reminiscent of the dot-com bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市再次变得昂贵。这一次，人工智能（AI）的热情是推动繁荣的关键因素，而不是电子商务。然而，一些观察者认为市场正处于一个类似于互联网泡沫的人工智能泡沫中。</p>
</div><p>It wasn't only internet stocks that became super expensive in 1999, just as premium valuations aren't limited to AI stocks in 2025. Costco was an exception back then, and is again today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不仅仅是互联网股票在 1999 年变得超级昂贵，正如 2025 年高估值并不局限于人工智能股票一样。开市客当时是个例外，现在也是。</p>
</div><h2>The case for buying Costco stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>购买开市客股票的理由</h2>
</div><p>Several of my Motley Fool colleagues believe that Costco's shares can continue to rise despite its high valuation. And they make a solid case for buying the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的几位 <strong>Motley Fool</strong> 同事认为，尽管开市客的估值很高，但其股票仍然可以继续上涨。他们为购买该股票提供了有力的理由。</p>
</div><p>Demitri Kalogeropoulos recently wrote, &#34;Costco has earned its premium over peers by putting together a long streak of market-share wins and constructing a retailing-as-a-service business that generates highly stable membership fees.&#34; He's absolutely right about Costco's track record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Demitri Kalogeropoulos 最近写道：&#34;开市客通过持续赢得市场份额和构建一种零售即服务的商业模式，赚取了相对于同行的溢价，这种模式产生了高度稳定的会员费用。&#34; 他对开市客的业绩记录是完全正确的。</p>
</div><p>Geoffrey Seiler noted a few weeks ago that &#34;questions surrounding Costco's valuation have been a pretty common theme during the past few years, and the stock has nonetheless continued to perform very well.&#34; He's correct, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Geoffrey Seiler 几周前指出：&#34;围绕开市客估值的问题在过去几年中一直是一个相当普遍的主题，但该股票仍然表现非常好。&#34; 他也是对的。</p>
</div><p>Billy Duberstein concluded in his analysis of Costco: &#34;With its resilient business model and opportunities for both multi-decade growth and profit expansion, the stock isn't as wildly expensive as it might appear.&#34; Again, this seems spot-on to me.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Billy Duberstein 在对开市客的分析中总结道：&#34;凭借其韧性的商业模式和多年来增长及利润扩张的机会，该股票并不像看起来那么疯狂昂贵。&#34; 我认为这也是非常准确的。</p>
</div><p>I generally agree with all three takes. However, if you think there's a &#34;but&#34; coming, you're right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我通常同意这三种观点。然而，如果你认为接下来会有一个 “但是”，你是对的。</p>
</div><p>Costco is a proven winner, but its share price must ultimately be justified by earnings. If the company's earnings don't grow rapidly enough to warrant a P/E multiple of over 50, its stock is likely to fall to a level more in line with realistic growth expectations. Costco reported year-over-year earnings growth of 13% in its latest quarter. That's not enough, in my opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客是一家经过验证的赢家，但其股价最终必须由收益来证明。如果公司的收益增长不足以支持超过 50 的市盈率，其股票可能会下跌到更符合现实增长预期的水平。开市客在最新一季度报告的同比收益增长为 13%。在我看来，这还不够。</p>
</div><p>Unless Costco's earnings accelerate significantly (which is possible), its share price will likely tumble sooner or later. I don't think the stock will necessarily decline in 2025, especially if inflation resurges and pushes more customers to the company's warehouses. Whenever a pullback does occur, though, it could present an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors -- if history repeats itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非开市客的收益显著加速（这是可能的），否则其股价迟早可能会下跌。我认为该股票在 2025 年不一定会下跌，特别是如果通货膨胀重新抬头并推动更多顾客前往公司的仓库。然而，无论何时出现回调，这可能为长期投资者提供一个绝佳的买入机会——如果历史重演的话。</p>
</div>

上一次开市客股票达到如此高价时发生了什么。历史会重演吗？