<p>2024 年，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -3.00%）短暂地成为全球市值最大的公司，随后将这一位置让回给 <strong>苹果</strong>。<strong>微软</strong> 也是一个竞争者，曾在一段时间内占据首位。</p>
<p>虽然另外两家大型科技公司多年来一直处于领先地位，但在 2021 年，英伟达甚至未能进入前 20 名。这突显了其在过去几年中的惊人崛起。</p>
<p>市值——即公司股价与流通股数的乘积——并不是衡量公司价值的完美标准，但它是一个有用的参考。它确实反映了公司在市场中的主导地位，而英伟达在人工智能（AI）领域一直处于主导地位。投资者能期待这种情况持续吗？</p>
<h2>Blackwell 的需求强劲</h2>
<p>英伟达最新版本的超级芯片 Blackwell 即将推出，需求极其旺盛。AI 训练模型的增长速度令人震惊，尽管 Blackwell 芯片的性能是其前身的两倍多，但首席执行官黄仁勋解释说，客户对其数据中心的 Blackwell 芯片需求更为迫切。</p>
<p>他告诉分析师，当前版本的 AI 模型最多可以使用 100,000 个之前的 Hopper 芯片，但新模型的起始需求是 100,000 个 Blackwell 芯片。这种需求被他形容为 “疯狂”。据报道，英伟达的 Blackwell 芯片至少已经售罄 12 个月，尽管它正在努力提高产量，并与 <strong>富士康</strong> 合作在墨西哥建立全球最大的 Blackwell 生产设施。</p>
<p>投资者将观察这一情况的发展，但公司的最重要产品的推出前景看好。其成功的发布将推动销售，可能导致又一个健康的两位数增长年。<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的分析师认为，未来一年顶线收入可能增长 44%。</p>
<h2>微软做出了极其重要的公告</h2>
<p>自从 AI 热潮兴起以来，英伟达的收入大部分来自硅谷公司，这些公司构建和运营使 AI 得以实现的物理数据中心——比如 <strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong>。后者最近宣布，预计在 2025 财年将花费惊人的 800 亿美元用于 AI 基础设施。</p>
<p>这比 2024 年大约 500 亿美元的支出增加了 60%，远远超过一些分析师预期的 630 亿美元。去年的支出已经是创纪录的金额，且显著高于前一年。看看微软过去五年资本支出的增长——其中大部分来自于建设 AI 数据中心和购买英伟达芯片。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17701fd0db38ee0dd272ec3706faf405.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17701fd0db38ee0dd272ec3706faf405.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>这一趋势并没有平稳下来，而是正在加速，这对像英伟达这样的下游公司来说是个好消息。微软不太可能是唯一一家这样做的公司。如果微软预计其 AI 支出会增长到这个程度，可以肯定的是，硅谷的其他公司也会效仿。</p>
<h2>英伟达将继续其主导地位</h2>
<p>目前所有迹象都表明，英伟达将继续主导一个不断扩大的市场——普华永道（PwC）认为，到 2030 年，这个市场可以为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。英伟达的客户群是否在收紧开支？</p>
<p>这种迹象不仅不存在，反而与实际情况相反。微软对 AI 数据中心支出的巨大扩张对英伟达及其底线来说是一个极其积极的信号，至少在未来一年内是如此。</p>
<p>我相信英伟达的统治将持续到 2025 年。它也很可能会跃升至首位，再次成为全球最大的公司，超越苹果。</p>

英伟达

<p>在 2024 年，英伟达短暂成为市值最大的公司，这得益于其在人工智能热潮中对 Blackwell 超级芯片的强劲需求。尽管面临来自苹果和微软的竞争，英伟达的增长轨迹似乎依然强劲，分析师预测其收入将增长 44%。微软计划在 2025 年投资 800 亿美元用于人工智能基础设施，这将进一步惠及英伟达。预计到 2030 年，人工智能整体市场将为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元，这表明英伟达的主导地位可能会持续到 2025 年，并有可能重新夺回公司中的首位</p>

<p>2024 saw <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.00%) briefly take the title of the largest company in the world, as measured by market capitalization, before seeding the position back to <strong>Apple</strong>. <strong>Microsoft</strong> was also a contender, holding the top spot for some time, as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -3.00%）短暂地成为全球市值最大的公司，随后将这一位置让回给 <strong>苹果</strong>。<strong>微软</strong> 也是一个竞争者，曾在一段时间内占据首位。</p>
</div><p>While the other two big tech players have been at the top for many years, Nvidia wasn't even in the top 20 in 2021. This highlights its incredible climb over the course of the last few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然另外两家大型科技公司多年来一直处于领先地位，但在 2021 年，英伟达甚至未能进入前 20 名。这突显了其在过去几年中的惊人崛起。</p>
</div><p>Market capitalization -- the result of multiplying a company's share price by the number of outstanding shares -- is an imperfect measure of a company's value, but it's a useful guide. It's certainly reflective of a company's dominance in a market, and Nvidia has been dominant in artificial intelligence (AI). Can investors expect this to continue?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值——即公司股价与流通股数的乘积——并不是衡量公司价值的完美标准，但它是一个有用的参考。它确实反映了公司在市场中的主导地位，而英伟达在人工智能（AI）领域一直处于主导地位。投资者能期待这种情况持续吗？</p>
</div><h2>Blackwell demand is strong</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Blackwell 的需求强劲</h2>
</div><p>The rollout of Blackwell, the newest iteration of Nvidia's Superchips, is imminent, and demand is extremely high. The pace of growth of AI training models is staggering and, despite Blackwell chips being more than twice as powerful as their predecessors, CEO Jensen Huang explained that customers are demanding an even greater number of Blackwells for their data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达最新版本的超级芯片 Blackwell 即将推出，需求极其旺盛。AI 训练模型的增长速度令人震惊，尽管 Blackwell 芯片的性能是其前身的两倍多，但首席执行官黄仁勋解释说，客户对其数据中心的 Blackwell 芯片需求更为迫切。</p>
</div><p>He told analysts that current versions of AI models could use a maximum of 100,000 of the previous Hopper chips, but new models <em>start</em> at 100,000 Blackwell chips. That's driving a demand that he referred to as &#34;insane.&#34; It's been reported Nvidia is sold out of Blackwell for at least 12 months, even as it attempts to ramp up production, partnering with <strong>Foxconn</strong> to build the world's largest Blackwell production facility in Mexico.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他告诉分析师，当前版本的 AI 模型最多可以使用 100,000 个之前的 Hopper 芯片，但新模型的起始需求是 100,000 个 Blackwell 芯片。这种需求被他形容为 “疯狂”。据报道，英伟达的 Blackwell 芯片至少已经售罄 12 个月，尽管它正在努力提高产量，并与 <strong>富士康</strong> 合作在墨西哥建立全球最大的 Blackwell 生产设施。</p>
</div><p>Investors will see how this plays out, but things look good for the rollout of the company's most important product. Its successful launch will drive sales, likely leading to another year of growth in the healthy double digits. <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> analysts believe there could be a 44% gain in top-line revenue over the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者将观察这一情况的发展，但公司的最重要产品的推出前景看好。其成功的发布将推动销售，可能导致又一个健康的两位数增长年。<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的分析师认为，未来一年顶线收入可能增长 44%。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft made an extremely important announcement</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软做出了极其重要的公告</h2>
</div><p>Since the AI boom took off, the lion's share of Nvidia's revenue has flowed in from Silicon Valley companies that build and operate the physical data centers that enable AI -- think <strong>Alphabet</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong>. The latter announced recently that it expects to spend a staggering $80 billion in AI infrastructure in fiscal year 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从 AI 热潮兴起以来，英伟达的收入大部分来自硅谷公司，这些公司构建和运营使 AI 得以实现的物理数据中心——比如 <strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong>。后者最近宣布，预计在 2025 财年将花费惊人的 800 亿美元用于 AI 基础设施。</p>
</div><p>That represents a 60% increase from 2024's roughly $50 billion and is significantly more than the $63 billion some analysts expected. Last year's spend was already a record amount and significantly more than the year before. Look at Microsoft's growth in capital expenditures over the last five years -- the majority of this has come from building AI data centers and buying Nvidia chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这比 2024 年大约 500 亿美元的支出增加了 60%，远远超过一些分析师预期的 630 亿美元。去年的支出已经是创纪录的金额，且显著高于前一年。看看微软过去五年资本支出的增长——其中大部分来自于建设 AI 数据中心和购买英伟达芯片。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17701fd0db38ee0dd272ec3706faf405.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17701fd0db38ee0dd272ec3706faf405.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>This trend isn't leveling off but <em>accelerating</em> and is great news for companies like Nvidia that are downstream of this spending. It's also very unlikely that Microsoft will be alone in this. If Microsoft expects to grow its AI spending to this degree, you can be sure that others around Silicon Valley will follow suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一趋势并没有平稳下来，而是正在加速，这对像英伟达这样的下游公司来说是个好消息。微软不太可能是唯一一家这样做的公司。如果微软预计其 AI 支出会增长到这个程度，可以肯定的是，硅谷的其他公司也会效仿。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia will continue its dominance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达将继续其主导地位</h2>
</div><p>All signs at the moment point to Nvidia continuing to dominate an ever-expanding market -- one that PwC, one of the &#34;big four&#34; accounting firms, believes can add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. Is Nvidia's client base tightening their belts?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前所有迹象都表明，英伟达将继续主导一个不断扩大的市场——普华永道（PwC）认为，到 2030 年，这个市场可以为全球经济增加 15.7 万亿美元。英伟达的客户群是否在收紧开支？</p>
</div><p>Signs of this are not only absent, but also the opposite of what's been happening. The massive expansion of AI data center spending by Microsoft is a critically positive sign for Nvidia and its bottom line, at least for the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种迹象不仅不存在，反而与实际情况相反。微软对 AI 数据中心支出的巨大扩张对英伟达及其底线来说是一个极其积极的信号，至少在未来一年内是如此。</p>
</div><p>I believe that Nvidia's reign will continue through 2025. It's also very possible that it will take the top spot, leapfrogging Apple to once again become the largest company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信英伟达的统治将持续到 2025 年。它也很可能会跃升至首位，再次成为全球最大的公司，超越苹果。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Was One of the Largest Companies by Market Cap in 2024. Will Its Reign Continue in 2025?

- 2024 年，Nvidia 短暂成为全球市值最大公司，后被苹果超越。  
- Blackwell 芯片需求强劲，预计将推动 Nvidia 销售增长。  
- 微软计划在 2025 财年投入 800 亿美元于 AI 基础设施，利好 Nvidia。

英伟达在 2024 年是市值最大的公司之一。它在 2025 年的统治地位会继续吗？