<p>量子计算技术在 2024 年底成为热门投资话题。上个月，<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -1.14%）（GOOGL -0.98%）推出了其 Willow 量子计算芯片，该芯片的错误率显著低于早期版本，投资者纷纷涌向专注于量子计算的公司的股票。这些股票的价格飙升。</p>
<p>然而，所有的乐观情绪似乎在 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -3.00%）首席执行官黄仁勋在拉斯维加斯消费电子展（CES）上的问答环节中对量子计算前景的评论后烟消云散。</p>
<h2>实用的量子计算仍然遥不可及</h2>
<p>那么，黄仁勋是如何单枪匹马导致整个科技市场崩溃的呢？</p>
<p>他声称，实用的量子计算——可以将量子计算机视为超级超级计算机——可能还需要二十年的时间。显然，这不是投资者想听到的，尤其是来自一位对计算行业脉搏了如指掌的首席执行官。对于大多数个人投资者来说，这个时间太长了，这也是量子计算股票大幅下跌的原因。</p>
<p>不过，投资者不应该对这个时间表感到惊讶。尽管量子计算股票时不时会受到关注，但谷歌的 Willow 芯片公告重新激发了对该技术的兴趣。该芯片仅用五分钟就完成了一项基准计算，而标准超级计算机需要 10 的 27 次方（即 1 后面跟 25 个零）年的时间才能完成。然而，重要的是要认识到，这个特定的测试在某种程度上是有利于 Willow 的，因为它涉及随机电路采样，这是一种适合量子计算机独特属性的非同寻常的问题。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDMxMTIvcmNzLXRlc3QtY29tcGFyZWQtdG8tb3RoZXItYmVuY2htYXJrcy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDMxMTIvcmNzLXRlc3QtY29tcGFyZWQtdG8tb3RoZXItYmVuY2htYXJrcy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：谷歌。</p>
<p>这可能是一个极其困难的测试，但它并不是非常广泛实用。上面的图表表明，量子计算距离商业相关性和实用性仍然很远，这支持了黄仁勋的说法。</p>
<p>然而，并不是所有量子计算公司的首席执行官都同意这一观点。</p>
<p><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>（QBTS -5.41%）首席执行官 Alan Baratz 称黄仁勋的评论是 “完全错误的”。尽管他承认黄仁勋在基于门的量子计算方面可能是正确的，但他表示，自己公司的退火量子计算方法现在就可以部署。尽管如此，D-Wave 并没有看到太多成功：在第三季度，其收入同比下降 27%，降至 190 万美元。</p>
<h2>投资计算的未来</h2>
<p>那么，投资者应该如何看待量子计算？</p>
<p>除非你准备持有像 <strong>IonQ</strong>（IONQ 6.88%）或 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>（RGTI -11.06%）这样的纯量子计算股票超过十年，否则你可能更好地选择在这个科技领域保持观望，或者通过投资一些在量子计算方面有投资的大公司来获得投资组合的曝光。</p>
<p>购买 Alphabet 的股票将是一个很好的策略，因为这将让你从其已经成功的业务中受益，同时提供未来任何量子计算突破的潜在收益。Alphabet 已经是该领域的领导者，但其股票的风险远低于纯量子计算股票。另一方面，那些量子计算股票的长期回报潜力要高得多。</p>
<p>商业上实用的量子计算可能还需要一些时间，这意味着许多投资者可能会希望避开这些纯投资。传统计算仍然有很多上升空间，尤其是在当前人工智能（AI）热潮的背景下。因此，投资者可能会更好地关注他们已经拥有的东西，而不是进行引人注目的量子计算投资。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在 CES 上的评论提到，实用量子计算的时间表可能还需要二十年，这导致量子计算股票出现了大幅抛售。尽管在谷歌宣布其 Willow 量子芯片后最初引发了兴奋，但黄的前景看法却抑制了投资者的热情。D-Wave Quantum 的首席执行官不同意黄的观点，声称他们的技术现在就可以部署。鉴于商业可行性还需漫长等待，建议投资者考虑像 Alphabet 这样的成熟公司，以获取量子计算的投资机会，而不是纯粹的量子计算股票</p>

<p>Quantum computing technology became a hot investing topic toward the end of 2024. After <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -1.14%)(GOOGL -0.98%) last month unveiled its Willow quantum computing chip, which is significantly less error-prone than earlier iterations of the technology, investors flocked to the shares of companies that focus solely on quantum computing. Prices for those stocks surged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算技术在 2024 年底成为热门投资话题。上个月，<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -1.14%）（GOOGL -0.98%）推出了其 Willow 量子计算芯片，该芯片的错误率显著低于早期版本，投资者纷纷涌向专注于量子计算的公司的股票。这些股票的价格飙升。</p>
</div><p>However, all of that optimism seemed to evaporate after <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.00%) Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang commented about the outlook for quantum computing during a question-and-answer session at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，所有的乐观情绪似乎在 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -3.00%）首席执行官黄仁勋在拉斯维加斯消费电子展（CES）上的问答环节中对量子计算前景的评论后烟消云散。</p>
</div><h2>Useful quantum computing is still a long way away</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>实用的量子计算仍然遥不可及</h2>
</div><p>So how did Huang single-handedly cause a whole corner of the tech market to crash?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，黄仁勋是如何单枪匹马导致整个科技市场崩溃的呢？</p>
</div><p>He asserted that useful quantum computing -- think of quantum computers as super supercomputers -- was probably two decades away. Clearly, this isn't what investors wanted to hear, especially from a CEO with his finger on the pulse of the computing industry. That's just too long for most individual investors, which is why quantum computing stocks sold off sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他声称，实用的量子计算——可以将量子计算机视为超级超级计算机——可能还需要二十年的时间。显然，这不是投资者想听到的，尤其是来自一位对计算行业脉搏了如指掌的首席执行官。对于大多数个人投资者来说，这个时间太长了，这也是量子计算股票大幅下跌的原因。</p>
</div><p>Investors shouldn't be surprised by that timeline, though. Although quantum computing stocks have gained popularity from time to time, Google's Willow chip announcement reinvigorated interest in the technology. The chip took just five minutes to perform a benchmark computation for quantum computers that would have taken 10 septillion (that's 1 followed by 25 zeros) years for a standard supercomputer to complete. However, it's important to recognize that this particular test was somewhat stacked in Willow's favor, because it involves random circuit sampling, an unusual type of problem that's well suited to the unique attributes of quantum computers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，投资者不应该对这个时间表感到惊讶。尽管量子计算股票时不时会受到关注，但谷歌的 Willow 芯片公告重新激发了对该技术的兴趣。该芯片仅用五分钟就完成了一项基准计算，而标准超级计算机需要 10 的 27 次方（即 1 后面跟 25 个零）年的时间才能完成。然而，重要的是要认识到，这个特定的测试在某种程度上是有利于 Willow 的，因为它涉及随机电路采样，这是一种适合量子计算机独特属性的非同寻常的问题。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDMxMTIvcmNzLXRlc3QtY29tcGFyZWQtdG8tb3RoZXItYmVuY2htYXJrcy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803112%2Frcs-test-compared-to-other-benchmarks.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Google.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：谷歌。</p>
</div><p>It may be an extremely difficult test, but it's not very broadly useful. The chart above suggests that quantum computing is still far from commercial relevance and usefulness, which backs up Huang's assertion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能是一个极其困难的测试，但它并不是非常广泛实用。上面的图表表明，量子计算距离商业相关性和实用性仍然很远，这支持了黄仁勋的说法。</p>
</div><p>However, not all quantum computing CEOs agree.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，并不是所有量子计算公司的首席执行官都同意这一观点。</p>
</div><p><strong>D-Wave</strong> <strong>Quantum</strong>(QBTS -5.41%) CEO Alan Baratz called Huang's comments &#34;dead wrong.&#34; Although he acknowledged that Huang might be correct when it came to gate-based quantum computing, he said his company's annealing approach to quantum computing can be deployed right now. Even so, D-Wave isn't seeing a ton of success: In Q3, its revenue decreased 27% year over year to $1.9 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>（QBTS -5.41%）首席执行官 Alan Baratz 称黄仁勋的评论是 “完全错误的”。尽管他承认黄仁勋在基于门的量子计算方面可能是正确的，但他表示，自己公司的退火量子计算方法现在就可以部署。尽管如此，D-Wave 并没有看到太多成功：在第三季度，其收入同比下降 27%，降至 190 万美元。</p>
</div><h2>Investing in the future of computing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资计算的未来</h2>
</div><p>So, what should investors do about quantum computing?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，投资者应该如何看待量子计算？</p>
</div><p>Unless you're prepared to hold pure-play quantum computing stocks like <strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ 6.88%) or <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -11.06%) for more than a decade, you may be better off either staying on the sidelines when it comes to this part of the tech sector, or getting your portfolio exposure to it by investing in large companies that have some investments in quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非你准备持有像 <strong>IonQ</strong>（IONQ 6.88%）或 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>（RGTI -11.06%）这样的纯量子计算股票超过十年，否则你可能更好地选择在这个科技领域保持观望，或者通过投资一些在量子计算方面有投资的大公司来获得投资组合的曝光。</p>
</div><p>Buying shares of Alphabet would be a great strategy because it would let you benefit from its already-successful businesses while offering the potential upsides of any quantum computing breakthroughs down the road. Alphabet is already a leader in the sector, but its stock doesn't carry nearly as much risk as quantum computing pure-plays. On the flip side, the long-term return potential for some of those quantum computing stocks is much higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>购买 Alphabet 的股票将是一个很好的策略，因为这将让你从其已经成功的业务中受益，同时提供未来任何量子计算突破的潜在收益。Alphabet 已经是该领域的领导者，但其股票的风险远低于纯量子计算股票。另一方面，那些量子计算股票的长期回报潜力要高得多。</p>
</div><p>Commercially useful quantum computing may be some time away, and that means many investors probably will want to steer clear of these pure-play investments. Traditional computing still has plenty of upside, especially with the artificial intelligence (AI) boom that's going on right now. So investors would likely do better to look at something they already own rather than make a splashy quantum computing investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商业上实用的量子计算可能还需要一些时间，这意味着许多投资者可能会希望避开这些纯投资。传统计算仍然有很多上升空间，尤其是在当前人工智能（AI）热潮的背景下。因此，投资者可能会更好地关注他们已经拥有的东西，而不是进行引人注目的量子计算投资。</p>
</div>

Did Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Just Crush the Quantum Computing Industry?

- 量子计算技术在 2024 年底成为热门投资话题。  
- Nvidia CEO 黄仁勋表示，实用量子计算可能还需 20 年，导致相关股票大幅下跌。  
- 投资者应考虑持有大型公司股票，如 Alphabet，以降低风险并获取潜在收益。

英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋是否刚刚摧毁了量子计算行业？