<p>变革或许是华尔街唯一的确定性。由于创新、竞争、并购、破产和法律判决等因素，构成最大上市公司的拼图块不断变化。</p>
<p>在 2004 年结束时，<strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 是 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 中最大的上市公司，<strong>花旗集团</strong> 和 <strong>通用电气</strong> 也在前十名之内。如今，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.42%）是 2004 年底前十名中唯一仍然在美国最大上市公司之列的公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>自 2023 年中期以来，我们见证了 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -1.03%）、微软和半导体巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -1.97%）都突破了 3 万亿美元的估值高峰。尽管考虑到人工智能（AI）的崛起，英伟达似乎是最有把握达到心理上重要的 5 万亿美元水平的公司，但一位黑马候选人可能有更清晰的路径成为华尔街首个 5 万亿美元的公司。</p>
<h2>英伟达正在与历史抗争，历史有着无可挑剔的记录</h2>
<p>一方面，毫无疑问，英伟达享受到了教科书式的运营扩张。该公司的 Hopper（H100）图形处理单元（GPU）和后续的 Blackwell 芯片已成为希望在其高计算数据中心运行生成性 AI 解决方案和训练大型语言模型的企业的首选。</p>
<p>由于对 GPU 的需求压倒了供应，英伟达能够对其 Hopper 芯片收取 30,000 到 40,000 美元的价格，这比 <strong>超微半导体</strong> 对其 Instinct MI300X GPU 收取的费用高出多达四倍。超凡的定价能力帮助英伟达将其毛利率推高至去年的 78.4%。</p>
<p>尽管 AI 的长期前景依然令人鼓舞，并且这项技术在全球大多数行业中都有实际应用，但英伟达成为华尔街首个 5 万亿美元公司的机会可能会受到历史的阻碍。</p>
<p>大约三十年前，互联网开始走向主流，为企业提供了一种与潜在客户联系的新方式。尽管互联网最终确实以积极的方式改变了美国企业的增长轨迹，但企业真正理解如何利用这些新的销售和营销渠道却花费了多年时间。</p>
<p>包括互联网在内，过去 30 年中每一项颠覆性技术或创新都经历了早期阶段的泡沫。简单来说，投资者一直高估了新技术/创新被采用或获得广泛实用的速度。由于大多数公司缺乏明确的游戏计划来最大化其 AI 投资的回报，这使得人工智能成为一系列泡沫中的下一个。</p>
<p>由于没有公司比英伟达更直接地受益于 AI 革命，因此合理的预期是其股票将受到最严重的打击。历史先例使得英伟达首先达到 5 万亿美元估值的可能性不大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvYW1hem9uLXBhY2thZ2UtaHViLWVjb21tZXJjZS1jbG91ZC1yZXRhaWwuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvYW1hem9uLXBhY2thZ2UtaHViLWVjb21tZXJjZS1jbG91ZC1yZXRhaWwuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
<h2>这位黑马候选人有明确的路径成为美国最大的上市公司</h2>
<p>如果历史重演，AI 泡沫破裂，这对微软来说也是坏消息，微软一直在大力投资于一个以人工智能为驱动的未来。尽管微软的运营现金流并不像英伟达那样过于依赖 AI，但成为首个达到 5 万亿美元估值的公司将是一个挑战。</p>
<p>华尔街的另一家 3 万亿美元上市公司苹果也是如此。尽管苹果的服务部门继续以两位数的百分比增长，但其包括 iPhone 在内的实体设备销售在过去两年中停滞不前。苹果的股票已经以十年来最昂贵的估值交易，这使得其估值再上涨 1.4 万亿美元的空间有限。</p>
<p>“七大奇迹” 中似乎有最清晰路径达到 5 万亿美元市值的公司是电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.22%）。</p>
<p>当大多数消费者和投资者听到亚马逊这个名字时，他们会想到其主导的在线市场。去年二月，eMarketer 估计亚马逊将在 2024 年占美国在线零售销售的 40% 以上。尽管这个在线零售平台近三十年来一直是亚马逊的面貌，但电子商务在现金流生成和运营收入方面的作用微乎其微。</p>
<p>亚马逊增长潜力的绝大部分（特别是现金流的增长）来自其附属运营部门，其中亚马逊网络服务（AWS）处于领先地位。</p>
<p>根据技术分析公司 Canalys 的数据，AWS 是全球领先的云基础设施服务平台，预计在 2024 年第三季度占总云支出的 33%。作为对比，亚马逊在云服务提供商中的支出份额超过了微软的 Azure 和 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong>Alphabet 的 Google Cloud 的总和——而这两者在全球云服务支出中排名第二和第三。</p>
<p>尽管 AI 在 AWS 的增长中发挥了作用，但企业在云服务上的支出在 AI 成为华尔街自面包切片以来最热门的事物之前就已经以稳定的两位数速度增长。随着企业云服务支出仍处于相对早期的扩张阶段，亚马逊可以期待从这一部门获得显著更高的利润率，从而显著提升其现金流。</p>
<p>除了 AWS，亚马逊的广告服务和订阅服务（例如 Prime）部门也分别以两位数的速度增长。亚马逊对独家体育赛事（如周四夜足球和 NBA 直播套餐）的推动应会提升广告需求，并支持其订阅定价能力。</p>
<p>关键点在于，与微软和英伟达不同，亚马逊不会因人工智能泡沫破裂而受到拖累，因为它有丰富的其他催化因素。</p>
<p>最后，亚马逊在历史上仍然被认为是便宜的。在 2010 年代，投资者愿意以 23 到 37 倍的年末现金流来购买该公司的股票。但截至 1 月 10 日收盘，亚马逊的股票仅以 2026 年共识现金流的 13.5 倍进行估值。如果亚马逊能够达到 2010 年至 2019 年间持续交易的现金流年末中位数倍数，它将成为华尔街首个市值 5 万亿美元的公司。</p>

亚马逊

<p>这篇文章讨论了亚马逊成为华尔街首个市值达到 5 万亿美元的公司的潜力，超越竞争对手如英伟达、微软和苹果。尽管英伟达因其与人工智能相关的产品而实现了显著增长，但历史趋势表明它可能难以维持这种势头。相比之下，亚马逊的增长主要得益于其云服务，特别是亚马逊网络服务（AWS），该服务占据了显著的市场份额。文章强调了科技估值的波动性以及公司在利用人工智能等新兴技术时面临的挑战</p>

<p>Change is perhaps the only certainty on Wall Street. Due to factors such as innovation, competition, mergers and acquisitions, bankruptcies, and legal judgments, the puzzle pieces that make up the largest publicly traded companies are constantly in flux.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>变革或许是华尔街唯一的确定性。由于创新、竞争、并购、破产和法律判决等因素，构成最大上市公司的拼图块不断变化。</p>
</div><p>When 2004 came to a close, <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> was the largest publicly traded company in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, with <strong>Citigroup</strong> and <strong>General Electric</strong> also in the top 10. Today, <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.42%) is the only member of the end-of-2004 top 10 that's still among America's largest publicly traded companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2004 年结束时，<strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 是 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 中最大的上市公司，<strong>花旗集团</strong> 和 <strong>通用电气</strong> 也在前十名之内。如今，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.42%）是 2004 年底前十名中唯一仍然在美国最大上市公司之列的公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803684%2Fnyse-floor-trader-invest-buy-sell-options-stock-exchange-getty.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Since the midpoint of 2023, we've witnessed <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -1.03%), Microsoft, and semiconductor colossus <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.97%) all surpass the $3 trillion valuation plateau. Although Nvidia would seem like the surest bet to reach the psychologically important $5 trillion level given the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), a dark-horse candidate may have the clearest path to become Wall Street's first $5 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年中期以来，我们见证了 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -1.03%）、微软和半导体巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -1.97%）都突破了 3 万亿美元的估值高峰。尽管考虑到人工智能（AI）的崛起，英伟达似乎是最有把握达到心理上重要的 5 万亿美元水平的公司，但一位黑马候选人可能有更清晰的路径成为华尔街首个 5 万亿美元的公司。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia is battling against history, which has a flawless track record</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达正在与历史抗争，历史有着无可挑剔的记录</h2>
</div><p>On one hand, there's no denying that Nvidia has enjoyed a textbook operating expansion. The company's Hopper (H100) graphics processing units (GPUs) and successor Blackwell chips have been the preferred options for businesses wanting to run generative AI solutions and train large language models in their high-compute data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，毫无疑问，英伟达享受到了教科书式的运营扩张。该公司的 Hopper（H100）图形处理单元（GPU）和后续的 Blackwell 芯片已成为希望在其高计算数据中心运行生成性 AI 解决方案和训练大型语言模型的企业的首选。</p>
</div><p>With demand for GPUs overwhelming supply, Nvidia has been able to command $30,000 to $40,000 for its Hopper chip, which is up to four times as much as <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has charged customers for its Instinct MI300X GPU. Having otherworldly pricing power helped to push Nvidia's gross margin to as high as 78.4% last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对 GPU 的需求压倒了供应，英伟达能够对其 Hopper 芯片收取 30,000 到 40,000 美元的价格，这比 <strong>超微半导体</strong> 对其 Instinct MI300X GPU 收取的费用高出多达四倍。超凡的定价能力帮助英伟达将其毛利率推高至去年的 78.4%。</p>
</div><p>While the long-term outlook for AI remains encouraging and this technology has real-world applications in most industries around the globe, Nvidia's chances of becoming Wall Street's first $5 trillion company are likely going to be thwarted by history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 AI 的长期前景依然令人鼓舞，并且这项技术在全球大多数行业中都有实际应用，但英伟达成为华尔街首个 5 万亿美元公司的机会可能会受到历史的阻碍。</p>
</div><p>Roughly three decades ago, the internet began going mainstream and offered businesses a new way to connect with potential customers. Though the internet did, eventually, alter the growth trajectory for corporate America is a positive way, it took years before businesses really understood how to harness these new sales and marketing channels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大约三十年前，互联网开始走向主流，为企业提供了一种与潜在客户联系的新方式。尽管互联网最终确实以积极的方式改变了美国企业的增长轨迹，但企业真正理解如何利用这些新的销售和营销渠道却花费了多年时间。</p>
</div><p>Including the internet, every game-changing technology or innovation for 30 years has navigated its way through an early stage bubble. In simpler terms, investors have consistently overestimated how quickly a new technology/innovation would be adopted or gain widespread utility. With most companies lacking clear game plans as to how they'll maximize the return on their AI investments, it sets artificial intelligence up to be the next in a long line of bubbles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括互联网在内，过去 30 年中每一项颠覆性技术或创新都经历了早期阶段的泡沫。简单来说，投资者一直高估了新技术/创新被采用或获得广泛实用的速度。由于大多数公司缺乏明确的游戏计划来最大化其 AI 投资的回报，这使得人工智能成为一系列泡沫中的下一个。</p>
</div><p>Since no company has benefited more directly from the AI revolution than Nvidia, the logical expectation is that its stock would be hit the hardest. Historic precedent makes it unlikely that Nvidia ascends to a $5 trillion valuation first.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于没有公司比英伟达更直接地受益于 AI 革命，因此合理的预期是其股票将受到最严重的打击。历史先例使得英伟达首先达到 5 万亿美元估值的可能性不大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvYW1hem9uLXBhY2thZ2UtaHViLWVjb21tZXJjZS1jbG91ZC1yZXRhaWwuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803684%2Famazon-package-hub-ecommerce-cloud-retail.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><h2>This dark-horse candidate has a clear path to become America's largest public company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这位黑马候选人有明确的路径成为美国最大的上市公司</h2>
</div><p>If history were to rhyme and the AI bubble bursts, it would also be bad news for Microsoft, which has been investing heavily in an artificial intelligence-driven future. Although Microsoft's operating cash flow isn't as overwhelmingly reliant on AI as Nvidia, being the first to reach a $5 trillion valuation would be a stretch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果历史重演，AI 泡沫破裂，这对微软来说也是坏消息，微软一直在大力投资于一个以人工智能为驱动的未来。尽管微软的运营现金流并不像英伟达那样过于依赖 AI，但成为首个达到 5 万亿美元估值的公司将是一个挑战。</p>
</div><p>The same can be said for Wall Street's other $3 trillion public company, Apple. Though Apple's Services segment continues to grow by a double-digit percentage, its physical device sales, including iPhone, have stagnated for two years. Apple stock is already trading at one of its priciest valuations in a decade, which leaves little room for its valuation to rise by another $1.4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的另一家 3 万亿美元上市公司苹果也是如此。尽管苹果的服务部门继续以两位数的百分比增长，但其包括 iPhone 在内的实体设备销售在过去两年中停滞不前。苹果的股票已经以十年来最昂贵的估值交易，这使得其估值再上涨 1.4 万亿美元的空间有限。</p>
</div><p>The &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; component that appears to have the clearest path to a $5 trillion market cap is e-commerce juggernaut <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.22%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“七大奇迹” 中似乎有最清晰路径达到 5 万亿美元市值的公司是电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.22%）。</p>
</div><p>When most consumers and investors hear the Amazon name, they think of its dominant online marketplace. Last February, eMarketer estimated that Amazon would account for just over 40% of U.S. online retail sales in 2024. While this online retail platform has been the face of Amazon for nearly three decades, e-commerce plays a minimal role in terms of cash flow generation and operating income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当大多数消费者和投资者听到亚马逊这个名字时，他们会想到其主导的在线市场。去年二月，eMarketer 估计亚马逊将在 2024 年占美国在线零售销售的 40% 以上。尽管这个在线零售平台近三十年来一直是亚马逊的面貌，但电子商务在现金流生成和运营收入方面的作用微乎其微。</p>
</div><p>The lion's share of Amazon's growth potential (specifically growth in cash flow) originates from its ancillary operating segments, with Amazon Web Services (AWS) at the front of the pack.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊增长潜力的绝大部分（特别是现金流的增长）来自其附属运营部门，其中亚马逊网络服务（AWS）处于领先地位。</p>
</div><p>Based on data from tech-analysis firm Canalys, AWS is the world's leading cloud infrastructure service platform, with an estimated 33% share of total cloud spending during the third quarter of 2024. For context, Amazon's share of spending among cloud-service providers is more than Microsoft's Azure and <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google Cloud, <em>combined</em> -- and these are the No's 2 and 3 in global cloud-service spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据技术分析公司 Canalys 的数据，AWS 是全球领先的云基础设施服务平台，预计在 2024 年第三季度占总云支出的 33%。作为对比，亚马逊在云服务提供商中的支出份额超过了微软的 Azure 和 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong>Alphabet 的 Google Cloud 的总和——而这两者在全球云服务支出中排名第二和第三。</p>
</div><p>Even though AI has played a role in AWS's growth, enterprise spending on cloud services was growing at a steady double-digit pace long before AI became the hottest thing since sliced bread on Wall Street. With enterprise cloud-service spending still in its relatively early stages of expansion, Amazon can expect substantially higher margins from this segment to meaningfully boost its cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 AI 在 AWS 的增长中发挥了作用，但企业在云服务上的支出在 AI 成为华尔街自面包切片以来最热门的事物之前就已经以稳定的两位数速度增长。随着企业云服务支出仍处于相对早期的扩张阶段，亚马逊可以期待从这一部门获得显著更高的利润率，从而显著提升其现金流。</p>
</div><p>Beyond AWS, Amazon's advertising services and subscription services (e.g., Prime) segments are also respectively growing by double digits. Amazon's push into exclusive sporting events ( <em>Thursday Night Football</em> and NBA streaming packages) should improve demand for advertising, as well as support its subscription pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 AWS，亚马逊的广告服务和订阅服务（例如 Prime）部门也分别以两位数的速度增长。亚马逊对独家体育赛事（如周四夜足球和 NBA 直播套餐）的推动应会提升广告需求，并支持其订阅定价能力。</p>
</div><p>The key point is that, unlike Microsoft and Nvidia, Amazon wouldn't be dragged down by the AI bubble bursting thanks to its abundance of other catalysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键点在于，与微软和英伟达不同，亚马逊不会因人工智能泡沫破裂而受到拖累，因为它有丰富的其他催化因素。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Amazon remains historically inexpensive. Throughout the 2010s, investors willingly paid 23 to 37 times year-end cash flow to own shares of the company. But as of the closing bell on Jan. 10, Amazon's shares are valued at just 13.5 times consensus cash flow for 2026. If Amazon were to reach the median year-end multiple to cash flow it traded at consistently from 2010 through 2019, it would become Wall Street's first $5 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，亚马逊在历史上仍然被认为是便宜的。在 2010 年代，投资者愿意以 23 到 37 倍的年末现金流来购买该公司的股票。但截至 1 月 10 日收盘，亚马逊的股票仅以 2026 年共识现金流的 13.5 倍进行估值。如果亚马逊能够达到 2010 年至 2019 年间持续交易的现金流年末中位数倍数，它将成为华尔街首个市值 5 万亿美元的公司。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Will Be Wall Street's First $5 Trillion Company -- and It's Not Nvidia

- 华尔街的变化是唯一的确定性，受创新、竞争等因素影响。  
- 目前，微软是 2004 年末前十名中唯一仍在的公司，亚马逊有望成为首个市值 5 万亿美元的公司。  
- 亚马逊的云服务和广告业务增长强劲，且估值相对便宜，具备多重增长动力。  

Motley Fool

预测：这将是华尔街的第一家市值达到 5 万亿美元的公司——而且不是 Nvidia