<p>谈到半导体股票时，似乎所有人都在谈论 <strong>Nvidia</strong>。随着该公司新款 Blackwell 图形处理单元（GPU）架构的推出，我并不特别惊讶华尔街对 Nvidia 的看法依然乐观。</p>
<p>但在背后，<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>（AMD 1.10%）在 GPU 领域悄然追赶 Nvidia——这些高性能芯片被广泛应用于许多人工智能（AI）应用中——尽管 Nvidia 的市场主导地位依然强大。接下来，我将分析 AMD 的整体情况，并阐述我认为在未来 10 年内该股票比 Nvidia 更值得购买的理由。</p>
<h2>这是大家对 AMD 忽视的事实</h2>
<p>下表列出了 AMD 和 Nvidia 在第三季度的收入和毛利润增长数据。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>收入增长（% 年同比）</th>
<th>毛利润增长（% 年同比）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AMD</td>
<td>18%</td>
<td>24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia</td>
<td>94%</td>
<td>95%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：AMD 和 Nvidia 投资者关系。</p>
<p>Nvidia 不仅是一个比 AMD 大得多的企业，其销售和利润率的增长速度也快得多。尽管这可能暗示 AMD 远远落后于竞争对手，但我认为上述增长数据有些误导。</p>
<p>如果你查看下方的分部门结果图表，就会清楚 AMD 的数据中心业务正在蓬勃发展。不幸的是，该公司的游戏和嵌入式部门在销售和毛利润上都在下降，从而拖累了公司的整体业绩。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvYW1kLXEzLXNlZ21lbnQtcmVzdWx0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvYW1kLXEzLXNlZ21lbnQtcmVzdWx0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：AMD。</p>
<p>更令人鼓舞的是，AMD 的数据中心收入现在几乎以与 Nvidia 相同的速度增长。换句话说，Nvidia 的数据中心 GPU 业务的增长正在放缓，而 AMD 的业务则开始显示出扩张的迹象。</p>
<h2>当不确定时，放远目光</h2>
<p>根据 Jon Peddie Research 汇编的数据，Nvidia 在 AI GPU 市场上占据了惊人的 90% 的份额。排在第二位的是 AMD，市场份额估计为 10%。</p>
<p>与我上面分析的增长数据类似，我认为 Nvidia 对 GPU 市场的紧握有些误导。在过去两年中，Nvidia 在数据中心 GPU 领域几乎没有竞争。这一先发优势在公司获得显著市场份额的过程中发挥了重要作用。</p>
<p>然而，在 2023 年 12 月，AMD 推出了 MI300 系列 AI 加速器，旨在开始与 Nvidia 的 GPU 进行更直接的竞争。在短短一年内，AMD 已经能够扩展自己的数据中心 GPU 业务，并获得足够的增量市场份额，以对 Nvidia 的增长产生影响。</p>
<p>考虑到 AMD 已经有一系列继任 GPU 架构计划在今年到 2026 年之间发布，我认为该公司正朝着成为 Nvidia 的挑战者的方向发展。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MDYzMzI0MC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MDYzMzI0MC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AMD 的估值太具吸引力，无法错过</h2>
<p>对我来说，投资 AMD 不应该围绕你是否认为该公司会超越 Nvidia 或在 GPU 领域成为更大玩家来进行。相反，通过仔细审视本文探讨的趋势，我认为可以合理地认为 AMD 正处于指数增长的早期阶段，而 Nvidia 在未来十年的轨迹可能会放缓。</p>
<p>尽管如此，市场似乎完全低估了这一叙述。就在我写这篇文章时，AMD 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 23——这是过去一年中的最低水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0d3ad00a0b72b035e042a7ae5d515990.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0d3ad00a0b72b035e042a7ae5d515990.png"/></p>
<p>AMD 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>在我看来，AMD 的数据中心业务最终将达到一个点，其加速增长将占据主导地位，冲淡其他非核心部门（如游戏）的疲软表现。同时，AMD 加速器的更广泛采用应有助于公司在 GPU 市场上继续获得增量市场份额。</p>
<p>如果这一切得以实现，围绕 AMD 的叙述可能会迅速改变，股价可能会开始复苏，因为投资者涌向 Nvidia 之外的新增长机会。我认为现在是利用当前价格走势并在 AMD 股票上买入的良机。</p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了超微半导体（AMD）作为半导体股票的投资潜力，认为在未来十年内，AMD 可能比英伟达更值得购买。尽管英伟达在人工智能 GPU 市场占据主导地位，但 AMD 在其数据中心业务上显示出增长，正在逐渐追赶英伟达。作者认为，AMD 目前的低估值提供了一个有利可图的购买机会，因为其增长轨迹可能会改善，而英伟达的增长可能会放缓。投资者被鼓励考虑将 AMD 作为一个可行的长期投资</p>

<p>When it comes to semiconductor stocks, it seems like all anyone can talk about is <strong>Nvidia</strong>. With the launch of the company's new Blackwell graphic processing unit (GPU) architecture underway, I'm not particularly surprised that Wall Street remains largely bullish on Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈到半导体股票时，似乎所有人都在谈论 <strong>Nvidia</strong>。随着该公司新款 Blackwell 图形处理单元（GPU）架构的推出，我并不特别惊讶华尔街对 Nvidia 的看法依然乐观。</p>
</div><p>But in the background, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD 1.10%) is quietly gaining some ground on Nvidia in GPUs -- the high-powered chips used in many artificial intelligence (AI) applications -- despite the incumbent's dominating presence. Below, I'm going to analyze the full picture at AMD and make the case for why I think the stock is a better buy than Nvidia during the next 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在背后，<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>（AMD 1.10%）在 GPU 领域悄然追赶 Nvidia——这些高性能芯片被广泛应用于许多人工智能（AI）应用中——尽管 Nvidia 的市场主导地位依然强大。接下来，我将分析 AMD 的整体情况，并阐述我认为在未来 10 年内该股票比 Nvidia 更值得购买的理由。</p>
</div><h2>Here is what everyone is missing about AMD</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这是大家对 AMD 忽视的事实</h2>
</div><p>The table below breaks down revenue and gross profit growth figures for both AMD and Nvidia during the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下表列出了 AMD 和 Nvidia 在第三季度的收入和毛利润增长数据。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Revenue Growth (% Year Over Year)</th>
<th>Gross Profit Growth (% Year Over Year)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AMD</td>
<td>18%</td>
<td>24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia</td>
<td>94%</td>
<td>95%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>收入增长（% 年同比）</th>
<th>毛利润增长（% 年同比）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AMD</td>
<td>18%</td>
<td>24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia</td>
<td>94%</td>
<td>95%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: AMD and Nvidia investor relations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：AMD 和 Nvidia 投资者关系。</p>
</div><p>Not only is Nvidia a much larger business than AMD, but its sales and profit margins are growing at a much faster pace. Although this may imply that AMD is far behind its rival, I see the growth figures above as a bit of an illusion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 不仅是一个比 AMD 大得多的企业，其销售和利润率的增长速度也快得多。尽管这可能暗示 AMD 远远落后于竞争对手，但我认为上述增长数据有些误导。</p>
</div><p>If you look at the segmented results in the chart below, it becomes clear that AMD's data center business is thriving. Unfortunately, the company's gaming and embedded segments are declining across sales and gross profit -- thereby dragging down the company's overall results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你查看下方的分部门结果图表，就会清楚 AMD 的数据中心业务正在蓬勃发展。不幸的是，该公司的游戏和嵌入式部门在销售和毛利润上都在下降，从而拖累了公司的整体业绩。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvYW1kLXEzLXNlZ21lbnQtcmVzdWx0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803707%2Famd-q3-segment-results.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: AMD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：AMD。</p>
</div><p>What's even more encouraging is that AMD's data center revenue is now growing at nearly the same rate as Nvidia's. In other words, growth from Nvidia's data center GPU operation is decelerating at the same time AMD's is beginning to show signs of scaling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人鼓舞的是，AMD 的数据中心收入现在几乎以与 Nvidia 相同的速度增长。换句话说，Nvidia 的数据中心 GPU 业务的增长正在放缓，而 AMD 的业务则开始显示出扩张的迹象。</p>
</div><h2>When in doubt, zoom out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>当不确定时，放远目光</h2>
</div><p>According to data compiled by Jon Peddie Research, Nvidia controls a staggering 90% of the AI GPU market. Coming in at a very distant second is AMD, which boasts an estimated 10% market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Jon Peddie Research 汇编的数据，Nvidia 在 AI GPU 市场上占据了惊人的 90% 的份额。排在第二位的是 AMD，市场份额估计为 10%。</p>
</div><p>Similar to the growth figures I analyzed above, I see Nvidia's tight grip on the GPU market as somewhat misleading. For much of the past two years, Nvidia did not have any competition in the data center GPU sector. This first-mover advantage played a huge role in the company's ability to grab significant market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与我上面分析的增长数据类似，我认为 Nvidia 对 GPU 市场的紧握有些误导。在过去两年中，Nvidia 在数据中心 GPU 领域几乎没有竞争。这一先发优势在公司获得显著市场份额的过程中发挥了重要作用。</p>
</div><p>However, in December 2023, AMD introduced its MI300 series of AI accelerators in an effort to start competing more directly with Nvidia's GPUs. In just one year, AMD has been able to scale its own data center GPU operation and acquire just enough incremental market share to make a dent in Nvidia's growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 2023 年 12 月，AMD 推出了 MI300 系列 AI 加速器，旨在开始与 Nvidia 的 GPU 进行更直接的竞争。在短短一年内，AMD 已经能够扩展自己的数据中心 GPU 业务，并获得足够的增量市场份额，以对 Nvidia 的增长产生影响。</p>
</div><p>Considering AMD already has a line of successor GPU architectures scheduled to release between this year and 2026, I think the company is well on its way to becoming a challenger to Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到 AMD 已经有一系列继任 GPU 架构计划在今年到 2026 年之间发布，我认为该公司正朝着成为 Nvidia 的挑战者的方向发展。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MDYzMzI0MC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803707%2Fgettyimages-1480633240-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>AMD's valuation is too good to pass up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AMD 的估值太具吸引力，无法错过</h2>
</div><p>To me, an investment in AMD shouldn't revolve around whether you think the company will surpass Nvidia or become a larger player in the GPU realm. Rather, by taking a hard look at the trends explored throughout this article, I think there is a valid case to be made that AMD is in the early stages of exponential growth whereas Nvidia's trajectory during the next decade could slow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对我来说，投资 AMD 不应该围绕你是否认为该公司会超越 Nvidia 或在 GPU 领域成为更大玩家来进行。相反，通过仔细审视本文探讨的趋势，我认为可以合理地认为 AMD 正处于指数增长的早期阶段，而 Nvidia 在未来十年的轨迹可能会放缓。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, the market appears to be discounting this narrative entirely. As I write this, AMD is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 23 -- its lowest level in a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，市场似乎完全低估了这一叙述。就在我写这篇文章时，AMD 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 23——这是过去一年中的最低水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0d3ad00a0b72b035e042a7ae5d515990.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0d3ad00a0b72b035e042a7ae5d515990.png"/></p>
<p>AMD PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMD 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, AMD's data center business will eventually reach a point at which its accelerating growth takes over and washes out any sluggish activity in other non-core segments such as gaming. At the same time, wider adoption of AMD's accelerators should help the company continue acquiring incremental market share in the GPU landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，AMD 的数据中心业务最终将达到一个点，其加速增长将占据主导地位，冲淡其他非核心部门（如游戏）的疲软表现。同时，AMD 加速器的更广泛采用应有助于公司在 GPU 市场上继续获得增量市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Should this play out, the narrative surrounding AMD could quickly change and the shares could begin to witness some revival as investors flock toward a new growth opportunity beyond Nvidia. I think now is a lucrative time to take advantage of the current price action and buy the dip in AMD stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这一切得以实现，围绕 AMD 的叙述可能会迅速改变，股价可能会开始复苏，因为投资者涌向 Nvidia 之外的新增长机会。我认为现在是利用当前价格走势并在 AMD 股票上买入的良机。</p>
</div>

A Once-in-a-Decade Investment Opportunity: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductor Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist and Hold for the Next 10 Years (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- AMD 在数据中心业务上增长迅速，接近 Nvidia 的增速。  
- 尽管 Nvidia 市场份额高达 90%，但 AMD 正逐步扩大市场影响力。  
- 当前 AMD 的估值较低，投资者可考虑在此时买入。

Motley Fool

十年一遇的投资机会：一只人工智能（AI）半导体股票，值得大举买入并持有未来 10 年（提示：不是英伟达）