<p>当 2024 年落幕时，投资者们都面带微笑。成熟的以股票为驱动的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>、基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和以增长为动力的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 分别上涨了 13%、23% 和 29%。</p>
<p>推动华尔街牛市第二年的多个催化因素，包括唐纳德·特朗普在 11 月的胜利（他在白宫的第一任期内股市飙升）以及围绕股票拆分的兴奋。但最重要的因素是与人工智能（AI）崛起相关的狂热情绪。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtY29ycmVjdGlvbi1wbHVuZ2UtYm91bmNlLWJlYXItbWFya2V0LWJhci10cmVuZC1pbnZlc3QtY3J5cHRvLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtY29ycmVjdGlvbi1wbHVuZ2UtYm91bmNlLWJlYXItbWFya2V0LWJhci10cmVuZC1pbnZlc3QtY3J5cHRvLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>通过赋能软件和系统，使其在任务上变得更加高效并可能学习新技能，这项技术的潜力几乎没有上限。在《Sizing the Prize》中，普华永道的分析师预测，到 2030 年，人工智能将为全球国内生产总值带来 15.7 万亿美元的增长。</p>
<p>没有哪家公司比半导体巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVIDIA）更直接地受益于人工智能革命。自 2023 年开始以来，英伟达的股票市值增加了大约 3 万亿美元，截至 1 月 10 日，股价上涨了 830%。</p>
<p>但英伟达的这种飞速增长是否过于美好而不真实？让我们让历史来最终判断英伟达的股票在 2025 年是否会跌破每股 100 美元。</p>
<h2>英伟达的运营扩张教科书般</h2>
<p>在深入探讨未来的细节之前，了解我们如何走到这一步的动态是很重要的。英伟达短暂成为美国最大上市公司的崛起，完全归功于其在高计算数据中心中作为 “核心” 的领先角色。</p>
<p>根据半导体分析公司 TechInsights 进行的一项研究，2022 年和 2023 年的数据中心图形处理单元（GPU）出货量分别为 267 万台和 385 万台。英伟达的 GPU 在 2022 年和 2023 年分别占据了出货量的绝大部分，仅有 30,000 台和 90,000 台的出货量不是来自英伟达。企业对其 Hopper（H100）芯片和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架构的需求简直无法满足。</p>
<p>对公司硬件的强烈需求带来了切实的好处。由于需求超过供应，英伟达对其超受欢迎的 Hopper GPU 的定价在 30,000 到 40,000 美元之间。作为对比，这远高于 <strong>超微半导体</strong>（AMD）为其 Instinct MI300X GPU 所定的 10,000 到 15,000 美元的价格。更高的价格意味着英伟达的毛利率显著上升。</p>
<p>此外，该公司的 CUDA 软件平台在保持客户对其产品和服务生态系统的忠诚方面发挥了关键作用。CUDA 是开发者用来最大化其英伟达 GPU 计算潜力和构建大型语言模型的工具包。</p>
<p>最后，英伟达受益于成为美国最具影响力企业的首选 AI-GPU 供应商。其按净销售额计算的顶级客户包括许多 “七大巨头” 的成员，如 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>历史对英伟达的抛物线式上涨的影响</h2>
<p>现在你对英伟达的过去有了更好的了解，并且知道我们是如何走到现在每股接近 136 美元的交易价格，让我们借助历史作为指南。</p>
<p>无论下一个颠覆性技术、创新或趋势在过去几十年中多么有前景，总有竞争者在一旁等待着分一杯羹。</p>
<p>目前，英伟达是 AI 加速数据中心中无可争议的 GPU 供应商。然而，其垄断般的市场份额几乎肯定会随着新竞争者的进入而减弱。例如，AMD 正在加大 MI300X 和新推出的 MI325X 的产量，这些产品的价格明显低于英伟达的芯片，并且可能更易获得。那些不想等待英伟达积压订单的企业可能会考虑像 AMD 这样的低成本替代品。</p>
<p>此外，按净销售额计算，英伟达的顶级客户都在开发用于其数据中心的 AI 芯片。尽管微软、Meta、亚马逊和 Alphabet 内部开发的芯片无法与英伟达的 Hopper 和 Blackwell GPU 的计算速度相匹配，但它们会更便宜且更容易获得。换句话说，这开始减少了推动英伟达定价权和毛利率改善的 AI-GPU 稀缺性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91bcdf4060fab53a648a7ccb01930801.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91bcdf4060fab53a648a7ccb01930801.png"/></p>
<p>AI-GPU 稀缺性的结束可能会对英伟达的毛利率产生压力。NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>除了历史告诉我们竞争是不可避免的外，过去三十年中下一个大趋势投资的市场领导者已经设定了一个令人担忧的先例。</p>
<p>在 1990 年代中期，互联网的普及开始为企业与客户之间提供新的连接方式。然而，许多公司需要很多年才能意识到如何最好地将其在线商店货币化。尽管互联网积极改变了美国企业的增长轨迹，但这发生在互联网泡沫破裂之后。</p>
<p>泡沫破裂事件与下一个大趋势投资之间始终是相辅相成的，毫无例外。尽管这不是一个全面的列表，但我们已经见证了基因解码、企业对企业电子商务、纳米技术、3D 打印、区块链技术和元宇宙等领域的泡沫破裂。</p>
<p>这些高价值可寻址趋势的共同特征是投资者高估了技术或创新的采用和早期阶段的实用性。每一种颠覆性技术/创新都需要时间来成熟，而目前看来人工智能尚未达到这一点。大多数企业仍然缺乏明确的游戏计划，来说明他们将如何在人工智能投资中获得正回报。</p>
<p>根据历史经验，下一波重大趋势的市场领导者在泡沫破裂时通常会在峰值到谷底的基础上损失 80% 或更多的价值。幸运的是，对于英伟达来说，它拥有成熟的运营部门——例如用于游戏和加密货币挖矿的 GPU，以及虚拟化软件——这些可能会减缓其下跌。</p>
<p>然而，历史非常清楚，下一波重大趋势的市场领导者在早期阶段的抛物线式上涨并不可持续，这使得英伟达股票在 2025 年跌破 100 美元成为一个非常现实的可能性。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票自 2023 年初以来已上涨 830%，这得益于人工智能的繁荣和对其 GPU 的高需求。然而，来自 AMD 等公司的竞争正在加剧，这可能会影响英伟达的市场份额和定价能力。历史趋势表明，市场领导者在新竞争者出现时往往面临挑战。分析师们正在质疑到 2025 年英伟达的股票是否会跌破 100 美元，考虑到竞争加剧和需求动态变化的潜在可能性</p>

<p>When the curtain closed on 2024, investors were all smiles. The mature stock-driven <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>, benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, and growth-fueled <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> ended last year higher by 13%, 23%, and 29%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 2024 年落幕时，投资者们都面带微笑。成熟的以股票为驱动的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>、基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和以增长为动力的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 分别上涨了 13%、23% 和 29%。</p>
</div><p>A number of catalysts powered year two of Wall Street's bull market rally, such as Donald Trump's November victory (stocks soared during his first term in the White House) and excitement surrounding stock splits. But at the top of the list is the euphoria associated with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动华尔街牛市第二年的多个催化因素，包括唐纳德·特朗普在 11 月的胜利（他在白宫的第一任期内股市飙升）以及围绕股票拆分的兴奋。但最重要的因素是与人工智能（AI）崛起相关的狂热情绪。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtY29ycmVjdGlvbi1wbHVuZ2UtYm91bmNlLWJlYXItbWFya2V0LWJhci10cmVuZC1pbnZlc3QtY3J5cHRvLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803711%2Fstock-chart-crash-correction-plunge-bounce-bear-market-bar-trend-invest-crypto-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Empowering software and systems with AI so they can become more proficient at their tasks and potentially learn new skills gives this technology a stratospheric ceiling. In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, the analysts at PwC forecast a $15.7 trillion boost to global gross domestic product from AI by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过赋能软件和系统，使其在任务上变得更加高效并可能学习新技能，这项技术的潜力几乎没有上限。在《Sizing the Prize》中，普华永道的分析师预测，到 2030 年，人工智能将为全球国内生产总值带来 15.7 万亿美元的增长。</p>
</div><p>No company has been a more direct beneficiary of the AI revolution than semiconductor giant <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.10%). Since 2023 began, Nvidia stock has added roughly $3 trillion in market value, with shares up a cool 830%, as of Jan. 10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有哪家公司比半导体巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVIDIA）更直接地受益于人工智能革命。自 2023 年开始以来，英伟达的股票市值增加了大约 3 万亿美元，截至 1 月 10 日，股价上涨了 830%。</p>
</div><p>But is this breakneck climb for Nvidia too good to be true? Let's allow history to be the ultimate judge of whether or not Nvidia stock can fall below $100 per share in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但英伟达的这种飞速增长是否过于美好而不真实？让我们让历史来最终判断英伟达的股票在 2025 年是否会跌破每股 100 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's operating expansion has been textbook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的运营扩张教科书般</h2>
</div><p>Before digging into the details of what's to come, it's important to understand the dynamics of how we got here. Nvidia's ascension to briefly becoming America's largest publicly traded company is all about its leading role as the &#34;brains&#34; of high-compute data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在深入探讨未来的细节之前，了解我们如何走到这一步的动态是很重要的。英伟达短暂成为美国最大上市公司的崛起，完全归功于其在高计算数据中心中作为 “核心” 的领先角色。</p>
</div><p>Based on a study conducted by semiconductor analysis firm TechInsights, data-center graphics processing unit (GPU) shipments in 2022 and 2023 respectively totaled 2.67 million units and 3.85 million units. Nvidia's GPUs were responsible for all but 30,000 GPUs shipped in 2022 and 90,000 GPUs shipped in 2023. Businesses simply can't get enough of its Hopper (H100) chip and next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据半导体分析公司 TechInsights 进行的一项研究，2022 年和 2023 年的数据中心图形处理单元（GPU）出货量分别为 267 万台和 385 万台。英伟达的 GPU 在 2022 年和 2023 年分别占据了出货量的绝大部分，仅有 30,000 台和 90,000 台的出货量不是来自英伟达。企业对其 Hopper（H100）芯片和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架构的需求简直无法满足。</p>
</div><p>Insatiable demand for the company's hardware has led to tangible benefits. With demand swamping supply, Nvidia has been charging between $30,000 and $40,000 for its ultra-popular Hopper GPU. For context, this is well above the $10,000 to $15,000 price point <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD -1.05%) was netting for its Instinct MI300X GPU. A higher price point translates to a notable uptick in Nvidia's gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对公司硬件的强烈需求带来了切实的好处。由于需求超过供应，英伟达对其超受欢迎的 Hopper GPU 的定价在 30,000 到 40,000 美元之间。作为对比，这远高于 <strong>超微半导体</strong>（AMD）为其 Instinct MI300X GPU 所定的 10,000 到 15,000 美元的价格。更高的价格意味着英伟达的毛利率显著上升。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, the company's CUDA software platform has played a key role in keeping customers loyal to its ecosystem of products and services. CUDA is the toolkit developers rely on to maximize the computing potential of their Nvidia GPUs and to build large language models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，该公司的 CUDA 软件平台在保持客户对其产品和服务生态系统的忠诚方面发挥了关键作用。CUDA 是开发者用来最大化其英伟达 GPU 计算潜力和构建大型语言模型的工具包。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Nvidia has benefited from being the preferred AI-GPU supplier of America's most-influential businesses. It's top customers by net sales include many members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven,&#34; such as <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，英伟达受益于成为美国最具影响力企业的首选 AI-GPU 供应商。其按净销售额计算的顶级客户包括许多 “七大巨头” 的成员，如 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803711%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>History weighs in on Nvidia's parabolic move higher</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史对英伟达的抛物线式上涨的影响</h2>
</div><p>Now that you have a better idea of where Nvidia has been and how we got to this point where it's trading at nearly $136 per share, let's lean on history as a guide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在你对英伟达的过去有了更好的了解，并且知道我们是如何走到现在每股接近 136 美元的交易价格，让我们借助历史作为指南。</p>
</div><p>Regardless of how promising the next game-changing technology, innovation, or trend has been over the last couple of decades, there has always been competition waiting in the wings for its chance at a piece of the proverbial pie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论下一个颠覆性技术、创新或趋势在过去几十年中多么有前景，总有竞争者在一旁等待着分一杯羹。</p>
</div><p>For the time being, Nvidia is the undisputed provider of GPUs in AI-accelerated data centers. However, its monopoly like market share is virtually certain to ebb as new competition enters the arena. AMD, for example, is ramping up output of the MI300X and newly introduced MI325X, which are notably cheaper than Nvidia's chips and likely more accessible. Businesses that aren't interested in waiting for Nvidia's backlog to clear may consider less-costly alternatives like AMD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英伟达是 AI 加速数据中心中无可争议的 GPU 供应商。然而，其垄断般的市场份额几乎肯定会随着新竞争者的进入而减弱。例如，AMD 正在加大 MI300X 和新推出的 MI325X 的产量，这些产品的价格明显低于英伟达的芯片，并且可能更易获得。那些不想等待英伟达积压订单的企业可能会考虑像 AMD 这样的低成本替代品。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Nvidia's top customers by net sales are all developing AI chips to use in their data centers. Although the chips Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet are internally developing won't match the computing speed of Nvidia's Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, they'll be cheaper and more readily available. In other words, it begins minimizing the AI-GPU scarcity that's fueled the lion's share of Nvidia's pricing power and gross margin improvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，按净销售额计算，英伟达的顶级客户都在开发用于其数据中心的 AI 芯片。尽管微软、Meta、亚马逊和 Alphabet 内部开发的芯片无法与英伟达的 Hopper 和 Blackwell GPU 的计算速度相匹配，但它们会更便宜且更容易获得。换句话说，这开始减少了推动英伟达定价权和毛利率改善的 AI-GPU 稀缺性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91bcdf4060fab53a648a7ccb01930801.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91bcdf4060fab53a648a7ccb01930801.png"/></p>
<p>An end to AI-GPU scarcity would likely weigh on Nvidia's gross margin. NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI-GPU 稀缺性的结束可能会对英伟达的毛利率产生压力。NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>On top of history telling us that competition is inevitable, a worrisome precedent has been set by market leaders of next-big-thing investment trends over the last three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了历史告诉我们竞争是不可避免的外，过去三十年中下一个大趋势投资的市场领导者已经设定了一个令人担忧的先例。</p>
</div><p>In the mid-1990s, the proliferation of the internet began offering new ways for businesses to connect with customers. However, it would be many years before most companies realized how best to monetize their online storefronts. Although the internet positively changed the growth trajectory for corporate America, this didn't occur until after the dot-com bubble burst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1990 年代中期，互联网的普及开始为企业与客户之间提供新的连接方式。然而，许多公司需要很多年才能意识到如何最好地将其在线商店货币化。尽管互联网积极改变了美国企业的增长轨迹，但这发生在互联网泡沫破裂之后。</p>
</div><p>Bubble-bursting events and next-big-thing investment trends have gone hand-in-hand, without exception, for decades. Though not a comprehensive list, we've witnessed bubbles burst for genome decoding, business-to-business e-commerce, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain technology, and the metaverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泡沫破裂事件与下一个大趋势投资之间始终是相辅相成的，毫无例外。尽管这不是一个全面的列表，但我们已经见证了基因解码、企业对企业电子商务、纳米技术、3D 打印、区块链技术和元宇宙等领域的泡沫破裂。</p>
</div><p>The trait all of these high-dollar addressable trends have in common is investors overestimating the adoption and early stage utility of a technology or innovation. Every game-changing technology/innovation needs time to mature, and it doesn't appear artificial intelligence has hit this point as of yet. Most businesses still lack a clear game plan of how they're going to generate a positive return on their AI investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些高价值可寻址趋势的共同特征是投资者高估了技术或创新的采用和早期阶段的实用性。每一种颠覆性技术/创新都需要时间来成熟，而目前看来人工智能尚未达到这一点。大多数企业仍然缺乏明确的游戏计划，来说明他们将如何在人工智能投资中获得正回报。</p>
</div><p>Based on what history tells us, market leaders of next-big-thing trends typically lose 80% or more of their value on a peak-to-trough basis when the bubble bursts. Thankfully for Nvidia, it has well-established operating segments -- e.g., GPUs used for gaming and cryptocurrency mining, as well as virtualization software -- that may be able to stunt its fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据历史经验，下一波重大趋势的市场领导者在泡沫破裂时通常会在峰值到谷底的基础上损失 80% 或更多的价值。幸运的是，对于英伟达来说，它拥有成熟的运营部门——例如用于游戏和加密货币挖矿的 GPU，以及虚拟化软件——这些可能会减缓其下跌。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, history is quite clear that parabolic early stage moves higher for market leaders of next-big-thing trends aren't sustainable, which makes a move below $100 in 2025 for Nvidia stock a very real possibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，历史非常清楚，下一波重大趋势的市场领导者在早期阶段的抛物线式上涨并不可持续，这使得英伟达股票在 2025 年跌破 100 美元成为一个非常现实的可能性。</p>
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Will Nvidia Stock Fall Below $100 in 2025? Here's What History Has to Say.

- 2024 年，投资者因股市上涨而欢欣鼓舞，标普 500 上涨 23%。  
- Nvidia 因 AI 需求激增，市值自 2023 年起增加约 3 万亿美元。  
- 然而，竞争加剧和市场泡沫风险可能导致 Nvidia 股价在 2025 年跌破 100 美元。

英伟达的股票会在 2025 年跌破 100 美元吗？历史告诉了我们什么