<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.48%) 的股票自疫情开始以来表现出色，市值超过 3 万亿美元，价值飙升。然而，今年这一盛宴可能终于要结束了，因为 iPhone 销售停滞、每年 200 亿美元的收入来源可能崩溃以及高估值的结合给股票带来了压力。尽管股市中任何事情都有可能发生，但苹果股票在 2025 年继续上涨将面临挑战。</p>
<h2>iPhone 停滞</h2>
<p>尽管苹果努力说服消费者每年的 iPhone 型号值得升级，但情况越来越不是这样。在智能手机行业的早期，智能手机每年都有显著的改进。随着行业的成熟，今年的旗舰智能手机与去年的旗舰智能手机之间的区别变得越来越难以辨别。</p>
<p>苹果去年推出的重点是苹果智能，公司的 AI 工具套件，适用于 iPhone 及其他设备。到目前为止，苹果的 AI 推动效果不佳。一项调查发现，73% 的 iPhone 用户表示 AI 功能几乎没有或没有价值。苹果智能可能会随着时间的推移而改善，但目前并没有帮助公司销售更多的 iPhone。</p>
<p>截至 9 月 28 日的 12 个月内，iPhone 的总收入与前 12 个月基本持平，而在假日季度，iPhone 销售 reportedly 下降了 5%。目前尚不清楚苹果如何扭转这些趋势，考虑到 iPhone 占公司总收入的一半以上，任何销售下降都将很难通过其他产品来弥补。</p>
<h2>200 亿美元的问题</h2>
<p>苹果目前每年从 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 获得超过 200 亿美元的收入，这笔交易使谷歌成为 Safari 网络浏览器的默认搜索引擎。这些支付出现在苹果的服务部门，基本上是纯利润。</p>
<p>随着谷歌准备在 4 月进行的在线搜索反垄断审判，这列 “摇钱树” 有可能结束。苹果已请求参与审判，以维护自身利益，因为谷歌面临被迫剥离主要资产的前景。如果这笔 200 亿美元的年度支付被视为反竞争行为，可能会被削减。</p>
<p>如果假设这笔支付是纯利润，它大约占苹果年度营业收入的六分之一。失去这笔收入将对底线造成重大打击。</p>
<h2>估值与利率</h2>
<p>尽管 iPhone 销售停滞以及谷歌支付的不确定性，苹果股票的交易价格约为过去 12 个月收益的 38 倍。苹果上一次如此昂贵是在疫情初期，当时对个人电脑、智能手机和其他设备的需求激增，推动了销售。</p>
<p>一个重要的考虑因素是利率。股市并不是在真空中存在，投资者愿意支付的估值最终取决于可用的替代品。自美联储开始降息以来，10 年期美国国债的收益率飙升，目前接近 5%。</p>
<p>为什么上升的债券收益率对高估值的股票可能是坏消息？10 年期国债通常被视为无风险利率。无风险利率越高，其他资产必须提供的回报就越高，以进行补偿。对于像苹果这样的股票，收入增长缓慢，利润可能在今年面临压力，接近 40 的市盈率在无风险利率上升时变得更加难以证明。</p>
<p>尽管收入增长速度远远低于预期，苹果的股票在过去五年中已经翻了三倍。随着估值处于高位，今年科技股可能面临修正。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票在疫情期间大幅上涨，但由于 iPhone 销售停滞、可能失去来自谷歌的 200 亿美元收入来源以及高估值水平，今年面临潜在下跌。iPhone 销售保持平稳，销售下降令人担忧，因为它们占苹果收入的一半以上。此外，谷歌即将进行的反垄断审判可能会危及苹果的重要支付。考虑到 38 的市盈率和不断上升的利率，证明这一估值变得具有挑战性，这暗示苹果股票在 2025 年可能会出现修正</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.48%) stock has been a big winner since the start of the pandemic, soaring in value as the company's market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion. The party may finally come to an end this year, though, as a combination of stagnating iPhone sales, the potential collapse of a $20 billion annual revenue stream, and a lofty valuation come together to put pressure on the stock. While anything could happen in the stock market, it will be tough for Apple stock to keep its rally going throughout 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.48%) 的股票自疫情开始以来表现出色，市值超过 3 万亿美元，价值飙升。然而，今年这一盛宴可能终于要结束了，因为 iPhone 销售停滞、每年 200 亿美元的收入来源可能崩溃以及高估值的结合给股票带来了压力。尽管股市中任何事情都有可能发生，但苹果股票在 2025 年继续上涨将面临挑战。</p>
</div><h2>iPhone stagnation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>iPhone 停滞</h2>
</div><p>As much as Apple tries to convince consumers that each year's iPhone models are worth the upgrade, that's increasingly not the case. In the early days of the smartphone industry, smartphones improved drastically each year. As the industry has matured, it's getting hard to tell the difference between this year's flagship smartphones and last year's flagship smartphones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果努力说服消费者每年的 iPhone 型号值得升级，但情况越来越不是这样。在智能手机行业的早期，智能手机每年都有显著的改进。随着行业的成熟，今年的旗舰智能手机与去年的旗舰智能手机之间的区别变得越来越难以辨别。</p>
</div><p>Apple's big thing last year was Apple Intelligence, the company's suite of AI-powered tools for the iPhone and its other devices. So far, Apple's AI push has been a swing and a miss. One survey found that 73% of iPhone users said the AI features add little or no value. Apple Intelligence will likely improve over time, but for now, it's not helping the company sell more iPhones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果去年推出的重点是苹果智能，公司的 AI 工具套件，适用于 iPhone 及其他设备。到目前为止，苹果的 AI 推动效果不佳。一项调查发现，73% 的 iPhone 用户表示 AI 功能几乎没有或没有价值。苹果智能可能会随着时间的推移而改善，但目前并没有帮助公司销售更多的 iPhone。</p>
</div><p>Total iPhone revenue in the twelve months that ended Sept. 28 was roughly unchanged from the previous 12-month period, and iPhone sales reportedly declined by 5% during the holiday quarter. It's not clear how Apple can reverse these trends, and with the iPhone accounting for more than half of the company's total revenue, any sales decline is going to be tough to offset with other products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 9 月 28 日的 12 个月内，iPhone 的总收入与前 12 个月基本持平，而在假日季度，iPhone 销售 reportedly 下降了 5%。目前尚不清楚苹果如何扭转这些趋势，考虑到 iPhone 占公司总收入的一半以上，任何销售下降都将很难通过其他产品来弥补。</p>
</div><h2>A $20 billion problem</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>200 亿美元的问题</h2>
</div><p>Apple currently receives in excess to $20 billion annually from <strong>Alphabet</strong> in a deal that makes Google the default search engine on the Safari web browser. These payments show up in Apple's services segment, and they're essentially pure profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果目前每年从 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 获得超过 200 亿美元的收入，这笔交易使谷歌成为 Safari 网络浏览器的默认搜索引擎。这些支付出现在苹果的服务部门，基本上是纯利润。</p>
</div><p>There's a real chance that this gravy train will come to an end as Google readies for an antitrust trial over online search set for April. Apple has asked to participate in the trial to defend its own interests as Google faces the prospect of being forced to divest major assets. That $20 billion annual payment to Apple could end up on the chopping block if it's viewed as anticompetitive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着谷歌准备在 4 月进行的在线搜索反垄断审判，这列 “摇钱树” 有可能结束。苹果已请求参与审判，以维护自身利益，因为谷歌面临被迫剥离主要资产的前景。如果这笔 200 亿美元的年度支付被视为反竞争行为，可能会被削减。</p>
</div><p>If you assume this payment is pure profit, it represents around one-sixth of Apple's annual operating income. Losing it would be a significant blow to the bottom line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果假设这笔支付是纯利润，它大约占苹果年度营业收入的六分之一。失去这笔收入将对底线造成重大打击。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation and interest rates</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值与利率</h2>
</div><p>Despite stagnating iPhone sales and uncertainty around the Google payments, Apple stock trades for about 38 times trailing-twelve-month earnings. The last time Apple was this expensive was during the early days of the pandemic when booming demand for PCs, smartphones, and other gadgets lifted sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 iPhone 销售停滞以及谷歌支付的不确定性，苹果股票的交易价格约为过去 12 个月收益的 38 倍。苹果上一次如此昂贵是在疫情初期，当时对个人电脑、智能手机和其他设备的需求激增，推动了销售。</p>
</div><p>One important thing to consider is interest rates. The stock market doesn't exist in a vacuum, and valuations that investors are willing to pay are ultimately a function of the alternatives available. Since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has been soaring, and it's now closing in on 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个重要的考虑因素是利率。股市并不是在真空中存在，投资者愿意支付的估值最终取决于可用的替代品。自美联储开始降息以来，10 年期美国国债的收益率飙升，目前接近 5%。</p>
</div><p>Why are rising bond yields potentially bad for stocks with lofty valuations? The 10-year Treasury is often considered the risk-free rate. The higher the risk-free rate is, the higher the return other assets must offer to compensate. For a stock like Apple, where revenue growth is sluggish and profits may come under pressure this year, a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 40 becomes much more difficult to justify as the risk-free rate rises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么上升的债券收益率对高估值的股票可能是坏消息？10 年期国债通常被视为无风险利率。无风险利率越高，其他资产必须提供的回报就越高，以进行补偿。对于像苹果这样的股票，收入增长缓慢，利润可能在今年面临压力，接近 40 的市盈率在无风险利率上升时变得更加难以证明。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Apple have tripled in the past five years despite revenue growing at a far slower rate. With the valuation at elevated levels, a correction could be in the cards for the tech stock this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管收入增长速度远远低于预期，苹果的股票在过去五年中已经翻了三倍。随着估值处于高位，今年科技股可能面临修正。</p>
</div>

Why Apple Stock Could Get Hammered This Year

- 苹果公司股价自疫情以来大幅上涨，市值超过 3 万亿美元。  
- 然而，iPhone 销售停滞及与谷歌的 200 亿美元收入面临风险，可能影响股价。  
- 当前估值高企，利率上升使得苹果股价面临调整压力。  

为什么苹果股票今年可能会遭受重创