<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 3.40%) 是今天最受关注的股票之一，原因显而易见。它在人工智能 (AI) 加速器市场的领先地位推动了其收入增长，使其成为仅次于 <strong>苹果</strong> 的最大半导体股票，按市值计算。</p>
<p>不幸的是，对于想要购买英伟达股票的投资者来说，其成功使得判断现在是否值得购买变得更加困难。它的技术领先和持续改进是否使其成为一个毫无疑问的买入选择，还是其估值使得在当前水平上触碰它变得过于昂贵？</p>
<h2>英伟达的主导地位</h2>
<p>正如大多数科技投资者所知，该公司的 AI 加速器和由此带来的收入增长是股票价格增长的主要原因。由此，设计 AI 芯片的数据中心部门在短短三年内从公司的第二大收入来源跃升为公司收入的 88%。</p>
<p>考虑到不断增长的 AI 芯片行业的现状，这一切都是幸运的。Grand View Research 预测到 2030 年的年均复合增长率为 29%。在预测的增长和加速器短缺之间，英伟达也是最有能力服务于这一市场的公司。</p>
<p>创新并不仅限于加速器或巩固其 AI 芯片主导地位的 CUDA 软件平台。英伟达继续开发众多新产品，其中一些在 CES 上刚刚宣布。</p>
<p>这包括基于 Blackwell 架构的显卡和其他旨在为类人机器人和自动驾驶汽车提供动力的 AI 驱动的先进技术。尽管时间会证明这些产品在市场上的表现，但这种创新增加了英伟达在可预见的未来在科技行业中扮演更重要角色的可能性。</p>
<h2>财务中的风险</h2>
<p>为此，英伟达在 2024 财年第三季度（截至 2024 年 10 月 27 日）创造了 350 亿美元的收入，同比增长 94%。在这一改善中，它在财年第三季度获得了 190 亿美元的净收入，比去年同期增长 109%。</p>
<p>确实，投资者应该为如此增长感到兴奋，而有经验的投资者知道，过去几个季度的三位数收入增长是不可持续的。</p>
<p>不幸的是，投资者往往会因收入增长放缓而惩罚股票，而公司的估值可能使其脆弱，至少在深入挖掘表面之下时是这样。</p>
<p>从表面上看，其市盈率为 53，超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均水平，尽管许多增长较慢的科技股的收益倍数更高。市销率 (P/S) 为 30 更好地突显了该股票变得多么昂贵，但这可能不会阻止希望从英伟达快速增长中获益的投资者。</p>
<p>尽管如此，市净率为 51 使其估值进入了高位区域。相比之下，<strong>AMD</strong> 的市净率仅为 3 倍多。</p>
<p>此外，英伟达的成功使其更容易受到半导体行业一直以来定义的周期性影响。确实，股价可能会保持稳定，英伟达的股票在短期内可能会避免重大下跌。</p>
<p>然而，其情况指向一个关键的脆弱性。新的 AI 加速器售价超过 30,000 美元。然而，如果需求下降，价格可能会随之下跌，这可能会减少甚至逆转公司的收入增长。</p>
<p>在过去七年中，英伟达的股票也经历了两次超过 50% 的回调。这种逆转可能会带来另一次重大下跌。</p>
<p>幸运的是，周期在某个时刻也会向上移动，因此英伟达的股票应该最终会因其新技术而从任何下跌中恢复。然而，考虑到下行周期在某个时刻不可避免地会发生，投资者可能需要在此时三思而后行，避免大规模购买。</p>
<h2>我应该购买英伟达股票吗？</h2>
<p>在当前情况下，投资者应该将英伟达视为持有。考虑到其估值指标和芯片行业的周期性，投资者在当前价格上可能为英伟达支付了过高的价格。</p>
<p>尽管如此，该公司在 AI 芯片行业中享有明显的主导地位，这一点不太可能很快改变。此外，其持续的创新可能会巩固这种主导地位，并促进更多的长期增长。</p>
<p>因此，在平衡英伟达的优势与挑战时，保持现状可能是其股东最好的行动。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票正受到关注，因为其在人工智能加速器市场的主导地位推动了显著的收入增长，使其成为市值最大的半导体股票。尽管 2024 年第三季度收入增长了 94%，达到 350 亿美元，但其高估值引发了担忧，市盈率为 53，市销率为 30。投资者被建议持有英伟达的股票，考虑到其强大的市场地位和持续的创新，但鉴于半导体行业的周期性和潜在的收入下降，仍需保持谨慎</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.40%) is one of the most widely followed stocks today, and it's easy to see why. Its lead in the artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator market supercharged its revenue growth and made it the largest semiconductor stock, as measured by market cap, next to <strong>Apple</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 3.40%) 是今天最受关注的股票之一，原因显而易见。它在人工智能 (AI) 加速器市场的领先地位推动了其收入增长，使其成为仅次于 <strong>苹果</strong> 的最大半导体股票，按市值计算。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately for investors who want to buy Nvidia shares, its success has made determining whether it is a buy <em>now</em> a more difficult problem. Do its technical lead and continuous improvement make it a no-brainer buy, or has its valuation made it too expensive to touch at current levels?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，对于想要购买英伟达股票的投资者来说，其成功使得判断现在是否值得购买变得更加困难。它的技术领先和持续改进是否使其成为一个毫无疑问的买入选择，还是其估值使得在当前水平上触碰它变得过于昂贵？</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's dominance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的主导地位</h2>
</div><p>As most tech investors know, the company's AI accelerators and the revenue gains caused most of the growth in the stock price. With that, the data center segment that designs AI chips went from the company's second-largest revenue source to producing 88% of company revenue in just three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如大多数科技投资者所知，该公司的 AI 加速器和由此带来的收入增长是股票价格增长的主要原因。由此，设计 AI 芯片的数据中心部门在短短三年内从公司的第二大收入来源跃升为公司收入的 88%。</p>
</div><p>This is fortuitous when considering the state of the growing AI chip industry. Grand View Research forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 29% through 2030. Between the predicted growth and shortages in accelerators, Nvidia is also the company best positioned to serve this market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到不断增长的 AI 芯片行业的现状，这一切都是幸运的。Grand View Research 预测到 2030 年的年均复合增长率为 29%。在预测的增长和加速器短缺之间，英伟达也是最有能力服务于这一市场的公司。</p>
</div><p>The innovation does not stop with accelerators or the CUDA software platform that cements its AI chip dominance. Nvidia has continued to develop numerous new products, some of which it just announced at CES.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>创新并不仅限于加速器或巩固其 AI 芯片主导地位的 CUDA 软件平台。英伟达继续开发众多新产品，其中一些在 CES 上刚刚宣布。</p>
</div><p>This includes a graphics card built on Blackwell architecture and other AI-driven advancements designed to power humanoid robots and self-driving cars. Even though time will tell how these products perform in the marketplace, this innovation increases the likelihood that Nvidia will play an even more essential role in the tech industry in the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这包括基于 Blackwell 架构的显卡和其他旨在为类人机器人和自动驾驶汽车提供动力的 AI 驱动的先进技术。尽管时间会证明这些产品在市场上的表现，但这种创新增加了英伟达在可预见的未来在科技行业中扮演更重要角色的可能性。</p>
</div><h2>Dangers in its financials</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>财务中的风险</h2>
</div><p>To that end, Nvidia generated $35 billion in revenue in the third quarter of fiscal 2024 (ended Oct. 27, 2024), a yearly increase of 94%. Amid that improvement, it earned $19 billion in net income in fiscal Q3, a 109% rise from year-ago levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为此，英伟达在 2024 财年第三季度（截至 2024 年 10 月 27 日）创造了 350 亿美元的收入，同比增长 94%。在这一改善中，它在财年第三季度获得了 190 亿美元的净收入，比去年同期增长 109%。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, investors should be thrilled to experience such growth, and experienced investors know that the triple-digit revenue increases of past quarters are not sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实，投资者应该为如此增长感到兴奋，而有经验的投资者知道，过去几个季度的三位数收入增长是不可持续的。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, investors tend to punish stocks for slowing revenue growth, and the company's valuation may leave it vulnerable, at least if digging beyond the surface.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，投资者往往会因收入增长放缓而惩罚股票，而公司的估值可能使其脆弱，至少在深入挖掘表面之下时是这样。</p>
</div><p>On the surface, its price-to-earnings ratio of 53 is above <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> averages, though many slower-growing tech stocks have a higher earnings multiple. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 30 better highlights how expensive the stock has become, but that may not deter investors who want to benefit from Nvidia's rapid growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，其市盈率为 53，超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均水平，尽管许多增长较慢的科技股的收益倍数更高。市销率 (P/S) 为 30 更好地突显了该股票变得多么昂贵，但这可能不会阻止希望从英伟达快速增长中获益的投资者。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, the price-to-book value ratio of 51 takes its valuation into nosebleed territory. In comparison, <strong>AMD</strong> trades at just over 3 times book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，市净率为 51 使其估值进入了高位区域。相比之下，<strong>AMD</strong> 的市净率仅为 3 倍多。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Nvidia's success makes it more subject to the cyclicality that has always defined the semiconductor industry. Indeed, the stock prices may hold, and it is possible that Nvidia stock will avoid a significant downturn in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，英伟达的成功使其更容易受到半导体行业一直以来定义的周期性影响。确实，股价可能会保持稳定，英伟达的股票在短期内可能会避免重大下跌。</p>
</div><p>Still, its situation points to a key vulnerability. New AI accelerators sell for more than $30,000. However, if demand falls, prices will likely follow, a factor that could reduce or even reverse the company's revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，其情况指向一个关键的脆弱性。新的 AI 加速器售价超过 30,000 美元。然而，如果需求下降，价格可能会随之下跌，这可能会减少甚至逆转公司的收入增长。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia stock has also experienced pullbacks of more than 50% twice in the last seven years. Such a reversal could bring about another significant decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去七年中，英伟达的股票也经历了两次超过 50% 的回调。这种逆转可能会带来另一次重大下跌。</p>
</div><p>Thankfully, cycles also move upward at some point, so Nvidia stock should eventually recover from any downturn due to its new technology. Still, considering that a down cycle will inevitably occur at some point, investors may want to think twice about making huge purchases at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幸运的是，周期在某个时刻也会向上移动，因此英伟达的股票应该最终会因其新技术而从任何下跌中恢复。然而，考虑到下行周期在某个时刻不可避免地会发生，投资者可能需要在此时三思而后行，避免大规模购买。</p>
</div><h2>Should I buy Nvidia stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我应该购买英伟达股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Under current conditions, investors should treat Nvidia as a hold. Considering its valuation metrics and the chip industry's cyclicality, investors are likely overpaying for Nvidia at its current price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前情况下，投资者应该将英伟达视为持有。考虑到其估值指标和芯片行业的周期性，投资者在当前价格上可能为英伟达支付了过高的价格。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, the company benefits from clear dominance in the AI chip industry, and that is unlikely to change soon. Moreover, its continued innovation will likely cement that dominance and foster more long-term growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，该公司在 AI 芯片行业中享有明显的主导地位，这一点不太可能很快改变。此外，其持续的创新可能会巩固这种主导地位，并促进更多的长期增长。</p>
</div><p>Hence, when balancing Nvidia's attributes with its challenges, staying the course is probably the best action for its shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在平衡英伟达的优势与挑战时，保持现状可能是其股东最好的行动。</p>
</div>

Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?

- Nvidia 在人工智能加速器市场的领先地位推动了其收入增长。  
- 第三季度营收达 350 亿美元，同比增长 94%。  
- 目前估值较高，投资者应考虑持有而非大幅购买。

英伟达的股票现在值得购买吗？