<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOGL -1.35%）（GOOG -1.30%）的股票在过去一年中上涨了令人印象深刻的 34%，目前的交易价格距离历史最高点仅有几分之差。</p>
<p>尽管面临日益严峻的监管审查以及关于其核心搜索业务在人工智能（AI）时代是否失去相关性的质疑，这家互联网巨头仍然持续实现强劲增长和创纪录的盈利能力。</p>
<p>Alphabet 的股价在 2025 年能否继续上涨？让我们探讨一下这只股票在一年后的可能情况。</p>
<h2>一台由 AI 驱动的盈利机器</h2>
<p>Alphabet 通过广泛的产品和服务生态系统脱颖而出。公司的旗舰搜索平台，辅以 Chrome 浏览器和 Android 操作系统，创造了无缝的用户体验。其云计算部门已成为企业服务的主要参与者，而 YouTube 则发展成为社交媒体的强大平台。Alphabet 对自动驾驶项目 Waymo 的拥有展示了其对持续创新的承诺。</p>
<p>这种广泛的覆盖是公司作为投资吸引力的关键部分，其利用协同效应支持其市场领先的广告网络。Alphabet 正在大力投资 AI，作为其增长战略的关键部分，这已经在改善运营和财务表现方面证明了成功。新集成的 AI 驱动能力增强了用户参与度，而 AI 优化的搜索算法则致力于提升广告转化率。</p>
<p>最显著的影响体现在 Google Cloud，那里一系列 AI 和机器学习工具受到了寻求将 AI 集成到其应用程序和工作流程中的客户的极大需求。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM4MzYvYWxwaGFiZXQtYnVsbGlzaC1vdXRsb29rLTIwMjUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM4MzYvYWxwaGFiZXQtYnVsbGlzaC1vdXRsb29rLTIwMjUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>结果不仅是广告收入的持续多元化，还有更高的运营利润率的转变，因为 Alphabet 展现出明显更高科技的形象。在最新报告的期间——2024 年第三季度——收入同比增长 15%，推动每股收益（EPS）增长 37%。</p>
<p>首席执行官 Sundar Pichai 将当前趋势描述为 “非凡的”，对公司的前景表示信心。华尔街分析师预计 2025 年将继续保持势头，预计收入增长 11.6%，每股收益目标为 8.99 美元，同比大幅增长 12.5%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024 年估计</th>
<th>2025 年估计</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$350.2</td>
<td>$390.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增长（同比）</td>
<td>13.9%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>$7.99</td>
<td>$8.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS 增长（同比）</td>
<td>37.8%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = year over year。</p>
<h2>一家巨型科技公司的投资机会</h2>
<p>从许多迹象来看，Alphabet 正在全力以赴，展现出其在不断发展的以 AI 为中心的科技领域中出色的应对能力。尽管如此，该公司在搜索和广告等领域的成功水平和持续主导地位引起了全球监管机构的反垄断审查，目前有几项关于被认为是反竞争行为的调查正在进行中。</p>
<p>在美国，司法部已推动公司出售其 Chrome 浏览器，并裁定 Google 在搜索市场中拥有垄断地位。与此同时，欧盟正在调查 Google AI 是否符合数据隐私法律。尽管尚未确认采取行动，但这些头条新闻给人带来了不确定性的阴影。</p>
<p>这种动态可能解释了为什么 Alphabet 的股票以 2025 年每股收益的预期市盈率（P/E）仅为 21 倍交易。这个水平相较于包括互联网广告同行 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（市盈率为 23 倍）和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（市盈率接近 32 倍）的巨型科技公司而言，存在较大折扣。</p>
<p>尽管如此，仍然有充分的理由认为 Alphabet 在基本面上被低估。即使在公司被迫出售某一特定产品或服务的情况下，理解是股东将保留其资产的内在价值，这些资产独立地也能获得销售溢价。</p>
<p>另一方面，较不激烈的结果仅要求消除某些类型的独占合同或新要求以促进对竞争平台的访问，市场可能会将其视为看涨。在我看来，Alphabet 在 2025 年足够多元化，其长期潜力依然强劲。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0273c47ddea5ac931338aa4d955b13f1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0273c47ddea5ac931338aa4d955b13f1.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>我对 Alphabet 股票的预测</h2>
<p>鉴于 Alphabet 强大的基本面、AI 领导地位以及相对于同行的吸引力估值，我相信其优势超过了投资股市的现实风险。只要经济环境保持韧性，公司就有良好的定位来实现持续的盈利增长并回报股东。我预测 Alphabet 的股价在一年内将会上涨。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>Alphabet（谷歌）的股票在过去一年中上涨了 34%，接近历史最高点，尽管面临监管审查。该公司正在大力投资人工智能，增强其产品生态系统并推动收入增长。分析师预计 2025 年收入增长 11.6%，每股收益（EPS）增长 12.5%。Alphabet 的前瞻市盈率低于同行，暗示其可能被低估。作者预测，Alphabet 强劲的基本面和人工智能领导地位将在一年内推动其股价上涨，前提是经济环境保持稳定</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -1.35%) (GOOG -1.30%), known for its Google subsidiary, are up an impressive 34% in the past year and currently trading just a few points from their all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOGL -1.35%）（GOOG -1.30%）的股票在过去一年中上涨了令人印象深刻的 34%，目前的交易价格距离历史最高点仅有几分之差。</p>
</div><p>Despite facing heightened regulatory scrutiny and questions about whether its core search business is losing its relevancy in the age of artificial intelligence (AI), the internet giant continues to post strong growth and record profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管面临日益严峻的监管审查以及关于其核心搜索业务在人工智能（AI）时代是否失去相关性的质疑，这家互联网巨头仍然持续实现强劲增长和创纪录的盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Can the rally in Alphabet shares keep going in 2025? Let's explore where the stock might be in one year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的股价在 2025 年能否继续上涨？让我们探讨一下这只股票在一年后的可能情况。</p>
</div><h2>An AI-powered earnings juggernaut</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一台由 AI 驱动的盈利机器</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet stands out through an extensive ecosystem of products and services. The company's flagship search platform, complemented by the Chrome browser and Android operating system, creates a seamless user experience. Its cloud computing division has emerged as a major player in enterprise services, while YouTube has evolved into a social media powerhouse. Alphabet's ownership of autonomous driving venture Waymo demonstrates its commitment to continued innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 通过广泛的产品和服务生态系统脱颖而出。公司的旗舰搜索平台，辅以 Chrome 浏览器和 Android 操作系统，创造了无缝的用户体验。其云计算部门已成为企业服务的主要参与者，而 YouTube 则发展成为社交媒体的强大平台。Alphabet 对自动驾驶项目 Waymo 的拥有展示了其对持续创新的承诺。</p>
</div><p>This reach is a key part of the company's allure as an investment, with its ability to leverage synergies supporting its market-leading advertising network. Alphabet is investing heavily in AI as a key part of its growth strategy, which has already proven successful in improving operating and financial performance. New AI-powered capabilities integrated across the ecosystem enhance user engagement, while AI-optimized search algorithms work to boost advertising conversion rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种广泛的覆盖是公司作为投资吸引力的关键部分，其利用协同效应支持其市场领先的广告网络。Alphabet 正在大力投资 AI，作为其增长战略的关键部分，这已经在改善运营和财务表现方面证明了成功。新集成的 AI 驱动能力增强了用户参与度，而 AI 优化的搜索算法则致力于提升广告转化率。</p>
</div><p>The most significant impact is evident in Google Cloud, where a suite of AI and machine learning tools has seen exceptional demand from customers seeking to integrate AI into their applications and workflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最显著的影响体现在 Google Cloud，那里一系列 AI 和机器学习工具受到了寻求将 AI 集成到其应用程序和工作流程中的客户的极大需求。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM4MzYvYWxwaGFiZXQtYnVsbGlzaC1vdXRsb29rLTIwMjUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803836%2Falphabet-bullish-outlook-2025.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The result is not only an ongoing diversification beyond advertising revenue but also a shift in higher operating margins as Alphabet assumes a decisively more high-tech profile. In the latest reported period -- third quarter of 2024 -- revenue climbed by 15% year over year, propelling a 37% increase in earnings per share (EPS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果不仅是广告收入的持续多元化，还有更高的运营利润率的转变，因为 Alphabet 展现出明显更高科技的形象。在最新报告的期间——2024 年第三季度——收入同比增长 15%，推动每股收益（EPS）增长 37%。</p>
</div><p>CEO Sundar Pichai described current trends as &#34;extraordinary,&#34; projecting confidence in the company's forward outlook. Wall Street analysts anticipate continued momentum in 2025 with 11.6% revenue growth and an EPS target of $8.99, a solid 12.5% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官 Sundar Pichai 将当前趋势描述为 “非凡的”，对公司的前景表示信心。华尔街分析师预计 2025 年将继续保持势头，预计收入增长 11.6%，每股收益目标为 8.99 美元，同比大幅增长 12.5%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2024 Estimate</th>
<th>2025 Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue (in billions)</td>
<td>$350.2</td>
<td>$390.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Revenue growth (YOY)</td>
<td>13.9%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Earnings per share (EPS)</td>
<td>$7.99</td>
<td>$8.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS growth (YOY)</td>
<td>37.8%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2024 年估计</th>
<th>2025 年估计</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十亿美元）</td>
<td>$350.2</td>
<td>$390.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增长（同比）</td>
<td>13.9%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>$7.99</td>
<td>$8.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS 增长（同比）</td>
<td>37.8%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Yahoo Finance. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = year over year。</p>
</div><h2>A mega-cap tech bargain</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一家巨型科技公司的投资机会</h2>
</div><p>By many indications, Alphabet is firing on all cylinders, demonstrating its impressive ability to navigate the evolving AI-focused tech landscape. That being said, the company's success level and ongoing dominance in areas like search and advertising have drawn antitrust scrutiny from regulators worldwide, with several ongoing investigations regarding perceived anti-competitive practices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从许多迹象来看，Alphabet 正在全力以赴，展现出其在不断发展的以 AI 为中心的科技领域中出色的应对能力。尽管如此，该公司在搜索和广告等领域的成功水平和持续主导地位引起了全球监管机构的反垄断审查，目前有几项关于被认为是反竞争行为的调查正在进行中。</p>
</div><p>In the United States, the Department of Justice has pushed for a company sale of its Chrome browser, also ruling that Google holds a monopoly in the search market. Separately, the European Union is probing Google AI's compliance with data privacy laws. While no action has been confirmed with room for appeals, the headlines cast a shadow of uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国，司法部已推动公司出售其 Chrome 浏览器，并裁定 Google 在搜索市场中拥有垄断地位。与此同时，欧盟正在调查 Google AI 是否符合数据隐私法律。尽管尚未确认采取行动，但这些头条新闻给人带来了不确定性的阴影。</p>
</div><p>That dynamic may explain why shares of Alphabet trade at just 21 times its consensus 2025 EPS as a forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio. This level represents a large discount to mega-cap tech peers, including internet advertising peer <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, which trades at a forward P/E of 23, and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, with an earnings multiple closer to 32.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种动态可能解释了为什么 Alphabet 的股票以 2025 年每股收益的预期市盈率（P/E）仅为 21 倍交易。这个水平相较于包括互联网广告同行 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（市盈率为 23 倍）和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（市盈率接近 32 倍）的巨型科技公司而言，存在较大折扣。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, there is still a good argument that Alphabet is fundamentally undervalued. Even in a scenario where the company is forced to sell off a particular product or service, the understanding is that shareholders would retain the underlying value with its assets independently commanding a sales premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，仍然有充分的理由认为 Alphabet 在基本面上被低估。即使在公司被迫出售某一特定产品或服务的情况下，理解是股东将保留其资产的内在价值，这些资产独立地也能获得销售溢价。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, a less drastic outcome that just requires the elimination of certain types of exclusive contracts or new requirements to facilitate access to competing platforms would likely be seen as bullish by the market. In my opinion, Alphabet in 2025 is sufficiently diversified that its long-term potential is as robust as ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，较不激烈的结果仅要求消除某些类型的独占合同或新要求以促进对竞争平台的访问，市场可能会将其视为看涨。在我看来，Alphabet 在 2025 年足够多元化，其长期潜力依然强劲。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0273c47ddea5ac931338aa4d955b13f1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0273c47ddea5ac931338aa4d955b13f1.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>My prediction for Alphabet stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我对 Alphabet 股票的预测</h2>
</div><p>Given Alphabet's strong fundamentals, AI leadership, and attractive valuation relative to peers, I believe its strengths outweigh the risks that are simply a reality of investing in the stock market. As long as the economic environment remains resilient, the company is well positioned to generate sustained profitable growth and reward shareholders. I predict Alphabet will be trading at a higher share price in one year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于 Alphabet 强大的基本面、AI 领导地位以及相对于同行的吸引力估值，我相信其优势超过了投资股市的现实风险。只要经济环境保持韧性，公司就有良好的定位来实现持续的盈利增长并回报股东。我预测 Alphabet 的股价在一年内将会上涨。</p>
</div>

Where Will Alphabet Stock Be in 1 Year?

- Alphabet 股价在过去一年上涨 34%，接近历史高点。  
- 尽管面临监管压力，Alphabet 仍实现强劲增长和盈利。  
- 预计 2025 年收入增长 11.6%，每股收益目标为 $8.99。

一年后 Alphabet 的股票会处于什么位置？